That kind of victory would likely involve genocide. Probably one that’s worse than what the Nazis did in WW2. I don’t think Russia will be forgiven for doing that, even after the combat stops due to mass slaughter of the Ukrainians.
If anybody hasn’t watched Alexander Vindman (“Amanpour & Company” - 18min) and Wesley Clark (DW (Deutsche Welle) News - ~10min) … IMHO … it’s worth it.
These are two people crying at the top of their lungs for the world to nip this in the bud. Both fear – and, largely, I’d say predict – the worst (Putin’s continued quest to take more sovereign states after Ukraine), and are sounding all possible alarm bells for intervention.
I don’t have enough Vindman ‘history’ to know how measured and unflappable he is, but Gen. Clark has never struck me as hyperbolic, hysterical, or histrionic.
They have my attention.
Putin might not see it that way…and, well, he might not care, either. He unleashed his military on Ukraine without even a fig leaf of justification (that lame bit about de-Nazification and right-wing government in Ukraine really showed he’s phoning it in) after all. But, I expect that Putin et al believe that Ukraine will capitulate at some point fairly soon. Zelenskyy did say he’s ready to talk seriously about Crimea and the breakaway regions as well as the NATO thing…which are a few of Putin’s demands, anyway. Not sure they can do the whole demilitarization and forever ‘neutral’ bit, but Putin might be feeling like he’s got a winning hand…for some definitions of ‘winning’ anyway.
Gen Clark made some good points. His experience with UN forces in Kosovo translates well to Ukraine. The Russians complicated the handling of Kosovo.
Would it, though?
I am no expert on electromagnetic stuff but would like to suggest the following hypothetical, with the following 4 conditions:
- USA and NATO announce a no-fly zone, but no targets in Russia itself will be hit.
- Russian SAMs on Ukrainian soil are fair game, since they’re invaders who shouldn’t be where they are.
- All Russian warplanes in Ukrainian airspace are fair game.
- USA uses stealth fighters only; no non-stealthy jets.
Under such circumstances, how is a Russian SAM located on the Russian side of the border, hundreds of miles away from Kyiv, going to detect and shoot down an American F-35 that’s loitering over Kyiv? It likely wouldn’t even see it at that range, and even if it did, the resolution would be too weak for a shoot-down.
The American warplanes would need tanker support, but those non-stealthy tankers would be lurking on the far western side of Ukraine or in Polish airspace, even further from SAMs. Same for AWACS.
I just call him ‘Puta’.
I’m kinda liking Pootin. Or Pyootin.
Heh, my wife called him “Pootin” when he came to power. I thought it was cute, at the time.
Yes, it would. NATO pilots doing strikes would be at a huge disadvantage. Russian SAMs and air defense systems could easily cover most of eastern and central Ukraine from their own territory, and that would force NATO pilots to either do counter missile strikes into Russia or just try and evade. This leaves aside the fact that Russia has a lot of air superiority fighters that we haven’t seen yet…in fact, the Russian air force hasn’t really put in much of an appearance. Maybe they can’t. But maybe Putin hasn’t wanted to risk them in Ukraine to this point.
A no-fly zone is just a really, really bad idea, as it wouldn’t be effective (Russian attack strike packages could be in and out before NATO fighters could really respond, especially in the eastern parts of the country, and that includes Kyiv), they would be at a disadvantage…and it’s a really good way for this thing to spiral out of control into WWIII. I know everyone wants to strike back at Russia, but this is not the way to do that unless we are ready for war. And, sorry, but clearly we aren’t. Our allies aren’t, and frankly, neither is the US.
Ukraine needs Patriots too. At least protect Kiev and the port cities.
The UAE may be coming around though:
https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/09/energy/oil-uae-production-increase/index.html
The UAE’s ambassador to Washington, Yousef Al Otaiba, told CNN Wednesday that the country wants to increase oil production and will encourage the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel to ramp up supply.
And just to show how flighty markets are:
Otaiba’s comments sent oil prices dropping like a rock Wednesday. US oil fell 12% to less than $109 a barrel. Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell 13% to $111 a barrel. It marked their steepest one-day decline in nearly two years.
The article goes on to say that now that UAE is signaling its approval of an increase in production, Saudi Arabia will probably go along.
You know all those guns Americans have? Sounds like some of them are going to Ukraine.
Americans are collecting weapons for Ukraine after President Volodymyr Zelenskiy called on his citizens to defend the country from invading Russian forces and promised to arm them.
Americans are donating thousands of sets of body armour and millions of rounds of ammunition in response to Ukraine’s pleas for military support.
Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, on New York’s Long Island, on Wednesday sent a letter to President Joe Biden requesting immediate federal approval to ship more than 50 rifles he had gathered in a donation drive for Ukraine.
“The fact that we do have a lot of legal gun ownership in the United States means that, you know, people may have a spare gun to contribute,” said Blakeman, adding that he had received interest from across the country in similar gun drives.
I suspect you’re right. Russia is not willing to take steps to prevent the transfer of ATGMs, bombs, SAMs, and other deadly things.
Western doctrine regarding the achievement of air supremacy is about more than just dogfighting; it includes, to the greatest possible extent, airbase denial. If NATO isn’t willing to attack Russian airbases in Russia, establishing air supremacy will be incredibly hard.
How long before someone starts a CT about how this was the plan all along? Hunter Biden colluded with Ukraine to fake a Russian invasion, so American gun owners would voluntarily give up a bunch of their guns…
That’s OK, we gots plenty more. We kept the best ones for ourselves.
a no-fly zone means direct involvement (vs supplying arms). It would involve removing any air and ground threats. That would be a significant escalation on the part of NATO and would make Poland an immediate target in response.
Using Stealth aircraft would again bring NATO into direct conflict with Russia. It’s not like they’re invisible. they’re just harder to hit.
Latest UK Defence Intelligence update:
Interesting article:
The article has an explanation and links to the map and database of verified and geolocated incidents, images and videos.
Yeah, Africa is a big country.