Russian and Ukrainian tank inventories according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS):
On a lighter note, It appears that the war is causing all kinds of new and different problems for Russian men.
I’ll go one step further - Since recapturing Kherson, Ukraine has been conducting a defense in depth, trading space for time. This tactic causes Russia to incur the highest losses possible in terms of both personnel and equipment. “Winning” ground by moving forward is not even a victory, so long as Russia is unable to keep pace with its losses and Ukr continues to receive weapons, supplies and training from the West.
I expect to see Ukr forces continue to make limited measured withdrawals over the next several weeks. What I don’t expect to see happen is Ukraine forces fleeing in panic as their lines break and Russian forces rapidly advancing through the gaps in the lines. That would be the Russians winning and Ukraine losing.
Once training is complete and the armor and other weapons systems promised by the West arrive, THEN we can expect to see an actual coordinated combined arms offensive. Conducted by Ukrainians. All the folks panicking will likely be the untrained Russian mobiks.
Nitpick: By definition soviet Russia was a Second World Country.
It has to be extremely frustrating for Ukraine.
Guardian Blog
The description was a deliberate insult. The USSR would have been 3rd world but for the nukes.
No, not entirely accurate but what insult is?
This is bad news, it was originally to be two battalions. Less than a battalion (Ukrainian battalion contains 31 tanks) of useable Leopards from western Europe. A battalion from eastern Europe but many need various repairs before they can be used. And delivery date looks like late April.
Ukraine needs to have a really wet late winter/early spring to make overland travel for tanks impossible.
the fact that in 2023 toilet-bowls still make the russian LOOT-TOP-10, tells you a thing or two
It seems like Russia is still recruiting prisoners, only now they are inducted into the regular Russian army rather than as Wagnerites.
Estimated 97% of Russia’s army is now deployed to Ukraine. I’d say that qualifies as ‘all in’.
I’m more and more convinced Ukraine can win this, but we’ve GOT to get as many heavy weapons in their hands as possible.
from the article:
London’s International Institute for Strategic Studies estimated Wednesday that Russia has lost between 100,000 and 150,000 troops to death or injury in Ukraine, along with more than 2,000 tanks, including half the country’s modern tanks. Wallace cited reports that “a whole Russian brigade was effectively annihilated” in Moscow’s assault on Vuhledar, where Russia “lost over 1,000 people in two days.”
given that every wave of new conscripts will be more inept than the (already rather inept ones before) … this is not looking good for russia …
their offensives are not going anywhere, they lost 1000 “elite” troops in 2 days worth of attacks in Vuledar … I am not sure what makes them elite, though …
Latest Russian window-related death:
Russian Defenstration Ministry, belike.
If the Russian army worked as well as the Defenestration Ministry, they would have won the war in a week. Defenestration seems to have a 100% kill rate.
Good article about the future of the war. Covers everything from dragging on for years to a negotiated settlement. A bit long but a lot of good points raised. The one that worries me a lot is that NATO countries will get tired of the war if it drags on into a third year, then a fourth year. I fear if Ukraine is forced to peace talks, they will end up losing territory and Russia will chalk up a big win for domestic consumption. After all, they only started this “special operation” to get rid of the Nazis. And look! No Nazis!
Air forces don’t win wars by themselves. But they sure do help the ground forces to win wars.
And if you’re keeping your air force away from a war so you don’t lose them, how is that any different from having already lost them?
If it drags on for three or four years, it’ll be our own fault, for not supporting Ukraine more strongly.
“Why do you keep snapping your fingers?”
“To keep away the elephants.”
“Elephants? There aren’t any elephants within 500 miles of here.”
“See? It works!”
Well, if you’ve committed them and lost them, no-one can say you’re holding them back in order to be nice (or something like that), and you can’t use them to threaten people.
Plus, I guess you could still sell them for some liquid cash.
ISTR the British kept their battleships in harbour, so as not to risk them. WWI, after the Battle of Jutland? I don’t remember.