Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 2)

[Walken_After_Midnight]

From an article:

But why blow up the pipeline, if gas blackmail via shutdowns had already proved effective? Why end the possibility of gas ever flowing again?

Simone Tagliapietra, energy specialist and senior fellow at the Bruegel think tank, said it was possible that — if it was Russia — there may have been internal divisions about any such decision. “At that point, when Putin had basically decided to stop supplying [gas to] Germany, many in Russia may have been against that. This was a source of revenues.” It is possible, Tagliapietra said, that “hardliners” took the decision to end the debate by ending the pipelines.

Blowing up Nord Stream, in this reading of the situation, was a final declaration of Russia’s willingness to cut off Europe’s gas supply indefinitely, while also demonstrating its hybrid warfare capabilities. In October, Putin said that the attack had shown that “any critical infrastructure in transport, energy or communication infrastructure is under threat — regardless of what part of the world it is located" — words viewed by many in the West as a veiled threat of more to come.

Who blew up Nord Stream?

I do think the contract reason is also very plausible. If the pipeline is damaged by unknown persons, then financial penalties from unfulfilled contractual obligations might be avoided, in a manner they probably wouldn’t be by openly turning off the supply with the intention to freeze/punish the other party to the contract. I think that all parties understood the future of the Nord Stream project to be dead at this point.

[iiandyiiii]

Russia clearly believed they could pressure Europe to cease aiding Ukraine by cutting off heating during winter. This would have helped those efforts, while attempting to shift blame elsewhere.

[Askance]

Ukraine primed for spring offensive.

Austrian chancellor reveals Putin’s chilling response to Russian casualties.

[Magiver]

Hidden by What Exit?

@Frodo

We will probably never know for sure who sabotaged the pipeline, but I’m gonna need some serious evidence to believe it was the Russians, who had nothing to gain and everything to lose from that action.

What country has a lot of pipelines going through it from Russia to Europe?

[Hypno-Toad]

So how well did Europe weather the winter gas shortage?

[What_Exit]

This is moving off breaking news. Keep the thread on tract please.

[I_Love_Me_Vol.I]

@Chronos

@Walken_After_Midnight

Russia was always the most likely culprit:

With what motive? Russia was the party with the least to gain and most to lose from destruction of the pipeline.

The motive was to convince people that Ukraine or a pro-Ukraine actor blew up the pipeline. Double-bluff. A false false flag. Russia intelligence thinking must have been, “They’ll never think we did it. We had the most to lose!”

[Cervaise]

@Hypno-Toad

So how well did Europe weather the winter gas shortage?

My personal perception as a resident is, remarkably well, through a combination of aggressive planning, better-than-usual coordination between normally fractious European states (better than usual being defined as “any at all”), and, probably more than any other factor, an unusually warm winter.

[Cardigan]

I’m not seeing a lot of news about it, but according to Denys Davidov, the Russians apparently struck an ammunition depot near Pavlohrad yesterday. Its geographic location and the size of the explosion both suggest it was for munitions intended for the upcoming Ukrainian counter-offensive. I have a bad feeling about this.

Update from Ukraine | Ukraine Takes the ground back in Avdiivka | Wagner betrayed Ruzzia - YouTube

story starts around 5:50.

[aceplace57]

I would hope Ukraine has its war supplies scattered in many locations. But any loss of ammunition hurts their plans.

[Gorsnak]

OSINT twitter thinks it was a warehouse storing old S-24 (solid fuel ICBM) motors that were scheduled for decommissioning, said decommissioning languishing due to lack of funds to carry it out. I can’t find any of the relevant tweets atm, but earlier this morning I did read multiple to that effect including some geolocation analysis of the explosion videos.

This could also be misinformation spread by Ukraine to cover a serious loss of materiel, of course.

[Walken_After_Midnight]

An illustration of the problem with Russian tanks’ slow reverse speed - T-90 reverse speed reportedly only 4 km/h.

(((Tendar)))

[EddyTeddyFreddy]

Comment on that tweet:

I wonder if the problem is Russia giving poor training to its tank crews, or if the problem is discipline and the crews not following their training.

To which the obvious answer is: “It’s a floor wax AND a dessert topping!”

[carnivorousplant]

What hit it?

[Cervaise]

Bottle rocket.

[Morgyn]

@Cervaise

Bottle rocket

One of Russia’s latest tanks got blown up by a firework?

[Miller]

No, someone threw a DVD copy of the 1996 Wes Anderson movie at it.

[Fiendish_Astronaut]

Ukraine war: More than 20,000 Russian fighters dead in Bakhmut, US says

Incredible casualty rates in Bakhmut.

[Snarky_Kong]

Kirby clarified the 20k number is across all front, not just in Bakhmut.

[Mahaloth]

Kevin McCarthy just spoke out against Russia. Maybe Russia doesn’t fund him or support him?

Exchange between Speaker McCarthy and Russian Reporter