Not propaganda, maybe, but possibly counterintelligence. The dam being burst certainly wasn’t part of their Plan A, and so their plans are definitely changed in light of it, but any competent strategist (which Ukraine has) would have considered the possibility of the Russians breaching the dam, and made contingency plans for that possibility, and those contingency plans would now be being put into effect. Maybe there won’t be the same counteroffensive as originally, but there’s definitely still going to be some counteroffensive.
From CNN’s continuing coverage:
Russian forces are shelling “places of evacuation” in Kherson city, according to Ukraine’s Ministry of Internal Affairs.
The ministry said three people have been injured in the shelling: “a civilian woman, a police officer and a rescuer.”
“All are being provided with the necessary assistance. The shelling began during the evacuation of citizens whose homes were flooded,” the ministry said in a Telegram post on Thursday.“Russia has left people in trouble in the occupied part of Kherson region. And it continues to prevent Ukraine from saving the most valuable - human lives,” it added.
This morning I became aware that Russia blew up a Ukranian dam in 1941:
I don’t know what this says about the current situation if anything, but the parallels are…notable.
Mines are rather heavy. Far more will end up buried deeply in the post-flood mess than will be left sitting exposed on the surface for easy retrieval.
Unfortunately, to the degree any town wants to bulldoze away the accumulated mud and muck & debris to facilitate rebuilding, they now have an additional “pollutant” in the mess: high explosives. Possibly-damaged high explosives.
Not a good situation.
Leopard tanks now in combat.
If Ukraine is committing their Leopard 2’s, that is where the main counter-attack is falling. Where are these Leopards engaging?
Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Along two approaches: one in the direction of Melitipol and the other Mariupol?
More towards Melitopol.
The Russians released video of a Leopard being destroyed:
Perhaps, but IMO that’s not as certain as all that.
They’re great tanks. But they’re relatively few in number, may not yet have all their logistical support up & running well, and the crews are still learning them.
If the Ukrainians are feeling confident about them, and if they really bring some missing capability to their tank forces I could see using a few to punch through the worst of Russian defenses then backing off and letting their more traditional, more numerous, equipment exploit the breakthrough.
Conversely, if the Ukrainians are less confident, I could see deploying them initially at one of the feint points, or a softer secondary objective to minimize the likelihood of a disappointing first outing trashing their whole offensive.
I have not followed the play by play enough in recent weeks to hazard a guess on which is more likely is. Just offering other thought processes that might be in use.
Slate says don’t expect much big news in the next few weeks. The counteroffensive is most likely to consist of smaller probing attacks at several points along the front to identify the weak points before committing to a large-scale attack.
Ukrainian intelligence claims to have intercepted a call between two Russians saying the Russian army only wanted to scare people by blowing up the dam a little bit…
(the first “they” in that quote refers to Ukrainians):
Russia has allegedly been slow to help people affected by the dam flood, which is doubly sad if they indeed caused it.
Sweden will allow NATO troops to station in their country even though they’re not in yet. And another Moscow drone attack. Article here.
Couple of articles on the offensive. Summary: hard fighting, Ukrainians take losses, but might be making progress.
Denys claims a Leopard 2 convoy got ambushed. Not a great start.
I’ve wondered what sources he relies on. He left Ukraine last winter.
The source in this case is a Russian video posted on Telegram. It can’t be shown on youtube.
Denys is blaming the commanders. He must be getting intel from somewhere.
It’s very unfortunate to lose Western equipment this soon.
I don’t think this proves much. A couple bored guys gossiping about the war.
We don’t know if this guy is in a position to know first hand. There should be a paper trail on the explosives. Who made them.
Guardian blog
Yeah. There’s no “little bit” when you breach a dam. Either you blow a big hole in it, or you blow a little hole in it and the water pressure turns it into a big hole. Clearly, engineering geniuses were involved… not.
Wonder if that “sabotage group” was swept away in the flood. Would have served them right if that had happened.
Not sad. It’s criminal.
seems like the UKR went fully russian on the same spot (IIURight, that is the same spot one day later and they lose another good handful of premium equipment)
not good … I hope they are fast to learn from mistakes … also seems like RU defense doctrine is working quite well …
time will tell …
I think that is video Denys discussed. The Ukrainians rolled into a trap with artillery already dialed in.
Lot of valuable armor blown up.