Wonder what they’re going to do once their forces have crossed; or at least most of them, possibly excepting some poor designated redshirts.
Ukraine’s got to be thinking this also, however.
The land to the south of the Dnieper River at Kherson is generally lower than that to the north of it. The Russian invaders would need to evacuate troops from a large area of land first, so there should be some prior indications were Russia to decide to go down this route.
I think a massive artillery attack will hit Kherson City. They probably have key areas dialed in and waiting for Ukrainians to target.
It depends on the terrain. Do the new Russian positions have higher ground?
Ukraine absolutely needs to push hard beyond Kherson and get a strong and relatively deep foothold on the opposite bank of the Dnipro before winter has a chance to grind everything to a full-on crawl. Kherson is a propaganda victory, but it was always in a precarious tactical position. Possessing it was never that important in a purely military sense. Giving Russia months to dig in and fortify on the far bank of the river, though - that would be bad and make taking the rest of the Kherson oblast a lot more difficult.
Hopefully at some point the Russian retreat clogs up and turns into a panicky rout that gives Ukraine the maximum advantage to inflict damage and gain ground past Kherson. On the one hand a lot of Russia’s better-quality troops are purportedly there which mitigates against a foul-up. On the other there are also purportedly a fair number of raw recruits that were recently sent to that general vicinity. Here’s hoping the two get entangled in the pull-out and cause a mess.
Wouldn’t anything up river and to the dam be higher ground than the city?
Either side establishing a bridgehead across the Dnieper along the portion that’s below the dam will be a monumental task.
I’m not sure whether Ukraine can push south from Kherson. They would need to cross the Dnieper River, which is hundreds of meters wide at that location, all with the threat of Russia blowing the dam and washing everyone away.
I think it more feasible for Ukraine to push south from Zaporizhzhia, since they would not need to cross the river. I think forces from around Kherson from both sides will probably be moved elsewhere, with a minimum of troops left behind to prevent either side from attempting to cross the river.
I think so and that will give Ruzsian troops an advantage with artillery strikes.
Excellent idea. The old hammer and anvil maneuver. I like it.
You’re working under the assumption that Putin gives a damn about those troops.
I’m not convinced that’s a valid assumption.
Time is not linear in a multiverse. Surely you remember this from High School Physics. Or TV.
In the US, the electric locomotives on electric rail lines often are diesel locomotives. A diesel loco has an electric drive train anyway, so it takes very little additional engineering to add a contact bar to the top of the vehicle. The same vehicle can then operate pollution-free on electrified lines, and then convert over to continue hauling the same train when they reach the point that isn’t electrified. I imagine most of the world works the same way. (And as an aside, it’s so friggin’ cool that they’re still running steam).
As for how the war ends, there are really only two possibilities: First, Putin dies (whether of natural causes or by falling out a window), and whoever his successor is decides to blame the debacle on him and takes the opportunity to pull out. Unlikely, maybe, but possible, and probably the best-case scenario. Or, second, Ukraine continues kicking Russian butt for as long as it takes, reclaims all of their territory, and holds it for long enough for the international community to recognize the border as undisputed, and then joins NATO. It’s up to Putin to figure out how to save face, in this scenario.
If concessions absolutely must be made in Crimea, how’s this? Ukraine, under UN supervision, holds a binding referendum in Crimea, in which any adult who has been resident in Crimea since 2013 is permitted to vote. Anyone who has moved to Crimea since then has the option of either staying and accepting the result of the referendum, or to return to the country whence they came.
Those are the possible good endings. There are many potential bad endings, from Ukraine slowly losing a war of attrition if NATO stops sending weapons up to nuclear armageddon, and various other options in between. Those are admittedly less likely, especially if each scenario is considered individually, but the potential is there.
Report gives a look into life inside a Ukrainian brigrade.
There are small details I hadn’t considered. A Russian uses a flashlight to walk out to a latrine. That gave away their Tank position. Drones can spot garbage around a area and that may be a Russian position.
From the article:
Moscow’s ministry of defence had claimed everything was going to plan. “All attacks by the Ukrainian army in the Kherson region have been repulsed,” it said
And therefore the Russians are retreating.
Makes perfect sense.
How about an independent Crimean Republic?
I do not see any way for Ukraine to re-capture Crimea.
Perhaps Zaluzhny can see things that you do not.
If Ukraine re-captures all of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts, and can also take the Kerch bridge permanently out of action, the Russian position in Crimea becomes very difficult from a logistical perspective. They might end up in a situation like they’ve been in in Kherson - not actually conceding much ground, but suffering losses at levels they cannot sustain given the available logistical supply.
Most of Europe is fully electrified and dragging around the diesel power sufficient to power the train on non-electrified lines would mean unnecessary mass and maintenance. Norway for instance only has one non-electrified line in the northern part of the country and has a small number of diesel locomotives running that line. All the others are run with fully electric locomotives.
Oh, sure, a loco designed for an electrified line can’t run on a non-electrified line, because it won’t have the diesel power plant. But that’s not what we’re discussing here. The question here was whether a diesel locomotive could run on a line with a (possibly non-functional) catenary wire, and most diesels are designed to be able to do that. Even more so, I would imagine, in a continent where electrified lines are more common.