To me, in all of this, there are a few reasons.
If 1 or 2 is true, why did Wagner stop? Did Putin just bluff them? With what? Wagner knows even better than we do how messed up the regular Russian forces are.
3 might be true, but is entirely out of character for Putin. If 3 is true, then Putin himself thinks something has changed, and changed radically enough to even get through to Putin, which a year of losing in Ukraine didn’t do. So, the question then, is, what made Putin change?
Like I said, we’re missing some key information here. I don’t know if we’ll ever learn it, but I sure hope the CIA, et al. are looking at this hard.
Videos from Wagner’s March on Moscow a few days ago.
Russian state air strikes:
Destruction of Russian state Il-22 aircraft by Wagner forces:
That is exactly backwards. It is Soviet-built ground-based air defense that has been holding up the Russian air force in Ukraine precisely because they are not trained to deal with themselves. NATO relies much less heavily on GBAD than the Soviet successor states, so Russia hasn’t invested as heavily in suppression of enemy air defense training/equipment as the West does.
Prigozhin’s wife owns various businesses in Saint Petersburg, and she and Prigozhin have kids. Putin’s a gangster, so I don’t doubt he or his henchmen would apply the necessary pressure if he felt his position was under threat. It could be that simple.
Huh, how close is this base to Ukraine border? Aleksander Lukashenko is strengthening his military resources.
But you would think that Prigozhin would have known that right from the start, and that his plans (and he definitely had plans) would include some way to keep them safe.
wanted to say the same … I doubt Prigo just “forgot” he had family out there …
even before the coup, I’d venture a guess that his family was very well protected and out of harm’s way … Sledgehammer and all that …
so that “threatened family” rationale (mentioned in mainstream media) is one that I do not buy at all
Maybe not Prigozhin, but his subordinates then. Prigozhin was in Rostov-on-Don, not leading the March on Moscow.
I didn’t realize Poland would feel threatened by these events.
Guardian feed
Well, again, yes, his men abandoning him would explain the sudden turn-around, but it doesn’t explain why Putin hasn’t had him killed yet, or why Prigozhin isn’t running for his life in expectation of being killed. Dictators are not known for leaving mutineers free and happy.
But they can bide their time. Markov, Litvinenko, Skripal had all been in exile for a good while before they were dealt with.
Maybe Lukashenko wants the Wagner folks as a card somehow against Putin?
One Russian commented that Russia is no different from the rest of the world in that there is no left wing, but also that “like the USA” there is only one party, no true political rivalry or real challenges to the entrenched power structure at all.
June 27 2023 aid package. Drawdown of existing stocks rather than future purchase contracts. The capabilities in this package include:
The least charismatic man in Russia is jealous of the “Dark Clown” and wants some rock star treatment of his own.
That’s pretty remarkable. Presupposing that’s actually Putin and not one of his doubles. The guy is an infamous germaphobe and would have had to overcome that, not to mention exposing himself to lots of people within stabbing/shooting distance. Yes, there’s a bodyguard on both sides of him but look how many are within arms reach there.
There are rumors from Russian sources that general Surovikin, head of the Russian air force and top commander of the invasion of Ukraine between October 2022 and January 2023, is under arrest. He was the Russian general that Prigozhin had praised and had a positive relationship with. He’s also the general that many commented looks like Dr. Evil.
However, during the mutiny, Surovikin sided with the Russian state and gave a videoed anti-mutiny speech. Maybe his loyalty to the state was a factor in Prigozhin giving up his Wagner March on Moscow. If the rumors are correct, it does not appear to have helped him evade state scrutiny, though. Other rumors from Russian sources are that there’s a purge going on of officers that showed “indecisiveness” in suppressing the mutiny.
That adds more fuel to the “mutiny was all Putin’s plan” theory. Not that I think it’s wholly plausible. Possible? Sure, as are many things. But not very likely.
I would be shocked if that was mere rumor. The Kremlin might not know shit about running a war, but they know all about keeping power and making an example of those whose loyalty is deemed lacking.