Moderating:
Take this to a new thread if you wish. But don’t hijack the Breaking News thread.
It’s very remarkable that a country with practically no Navy and a small air force has forced Russia to relocate its Black Sea fleet.
Is it possible that Ukraine could eventually resume control of Sevastopol? Would Ukraine have to fully reoccupy Crimea first?
Link Satellite images show Russia moved parts of its navy out of Crimea after getting hammered by Ukrainian attacks
Link ‘A new form of warfare’: how Ukraine reclaimed the Black Sea from Russian forces | Ukraine | The Guardian
There are new questions about admitting Ukraine to the EU. At first it was hoped that they could be admitted relatively soon, but now the whole process may have to be started from scratch. I know it’s a complicated and difficult process, but I can’t help tying it into the cooling of support for Ukraine that’s been happening across the world.
I always assumed that it couldn’t even be started until the conflict was resolved.
Maybe.
One of the big lessons EU learned from the addition of other former Warsaw Pact countries is that the rule of law has very shallow roots there. Ditto a commitment to democracy in deed, not only in form. Those shortcomings and the cynical kleptocratic governments they engender are simply incompatible with EU membership.
Ukraine started on the road to EU membership well before the war, and well before the lessons above had been fully learned by the traditional Western EO countries. Other than the war itself, Ukraine still has major kleptocracy problems. They are trying to move in the correct direction, but it’s a long road. Absent the rather magically good Zelenskyy, they could easily slide in some very different directions.
Ref Brexit, another lesson EU has belated come to recognize is that someone leaving the EU is almost as traumatic to the rest of EU as someone entering it. Far better to err on the side of caution rather than haste.
EU, not NATO which is definitely the case. I dunno about EU.
Oh, duh, yeah, I conflated NATO and EU.
Joining the EU is a long transitional process of changing laws and administrative practices (not to mention the adaptation of “governance culture” mentioned above - internalising the spirit as well as the letter of the law), before there’s formal admission as a full member in its governing institutions. AIUI, Ukraine has been formally accepted as a “candidate” and is working its way through various preliminary stages but has a long way to go - and then there’s the politics of whatever international situation applies when they get to the final decision point.
Here’s a review of where they are:
https://www.ebrd.com/publications/transition-report-202223-ukraine
I’ve followed a lot of regional conflicts and wars throughout my life. I’ve never been so inspired by a population as Ukraine. These people show such tenacity and grit. They endure mass murder by a tyrant. A important dam & water supply is destroyed. The survivors get up the next day, dust themselves off, and get to work adapting to a much harder life. Knowing that the Russians will return with even more missiles and continue their civilian terror campaign.
The Ukrainian people have to be supported. The free world can’t let people of such resolute character lose their country and identity as Ukrainians.
# Russia Shoots Down Its Own Su-35 Jet for Second Time Within Days
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The incident took place Friday in Mariupol, according to multiple reports referenced by Ukrainian defense officials. Information remains scarce but alluded to the pilot of the Russian Su-35 multirole fighter jet surviving the attack.
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“At this rate of work of our valiant air defense, we will soon be left without aviation,” reads a Telegram post by Russian military blogger Fighterbomber.
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These new reports have not been confirmed by Russian authorities. Newsweek is unable to independently verify the footage or reports and reached out to the Russian and Ukrainian Defense Ministries via email for comment.
I found this bit at the end of the article amusing, in a morbid way;
“Nonetheless, it should raise concerns about using the F-16 to break through Russia’s elastic defense,” Cohen said. “If Russia’s air defenses are able to accidentally shoot down their own aircraft, it does suggest threats to any aircraft flying even the slightest bit near the front from the vast air defense systems both sides are using.”
Translation: “Those Russians are so good at shooting down their own planes, we need to be careful sending our F-16s into combat!”
Russian air defense systems are pretty good, and flying F-16s near the front would be a good way to incur losses. The Ukrainians have been pretty careful with their Mig-29s, though, and would presumably be just as protective of F-16s… F-16s can provide huge advantages without flying in proximity to S-300 batteries, though.
Using various flavours of AMRAAM (Advanced Medium Range Air to Air Missile) they can force the Russians to keep their own aircraft further back, as F-16s with AMRAAMs have much greater effective engagement ranges than the Ukrainian Mig-29 fleet. Russian jets are less of a threat the further back they have to stay. F-16s will also pose a huge threat to Russian Ka-52 attack helicopters, which have been very effective weapon systems against Ukrainian armor, and which can operate just far enough behind the lines to be reasonably safe from man-portable air defense like Stingers.
The F-16 can also better utilize the AG-88 HARM (an anti-air defense missile) that the Ukrainians have kludged onto Mig-29 but which can’t properly integrate into the Mig avionic suite. And the F-16 can provide a better launch platform for things like the Storm Shadow/SCALP ALCMs, and any other NATO standard munitions which might follow.
I wonder about that. If Ukraine wins this war, and remains an independent state, there are going to be a hell of a lot of veterans, who will have a major stake in how post-war Ukraine develops. Post Cold War, I suspect very few people felt so strongly about their nationhood that they were willing to stand up to the culture of corruption they inherited from the USSR. But now? They were already pushing back on corruption prior to the war, that’s how Zelenskyy was elected in the first place. After they’ve spent years fighting, and lost so many people in the process, trying to keep Ukraine independent, they’re going to value their country that much more, and be that much less willing to let some corrupt assholes steal it all away again.
Here’s a BBC article about Russia’s Black Sea Fleet and its historical relationship with Kyiv. It paints Ukraine’s attack on the Fleet HQ and dry dock as a major victory (not saying I disagree, I just don’t know enough to make that assertion).
Al-Jazeera rather than BBC.
Sigh. (goes back to bed.)
Well, that seems to have been the tipping point on Russia bugging out, so I think it’s safe to say it was a major victory.
Destruction of tank:
well it took the ATGM … but not overly well
Well, that ATGM is definitely not usable now. So I guess the tank got a mission kill on it.