There was a huge explosion of a Russian TOS-1A thermobaric MLRS system reported today which I was expecting to be the climax of that video.
With that big a bang, I don’t think it was carrying thermobaric munitions.
Yes, termobaric munitions get their explosive power by widely dispersing a aerosol cloud of fuel before igniting them. If you hit such a weapon with a missle, the fuel would ignite before being dispersed. It would create a big fire but not a gigantic explosion.
I’ve been following the Ukraine news on Daily Kos since the initial invasion. Even though much of the site itself is irritating, their Ukraine war coverage is extremely superior to the (contemptible) coverage of the major papers I read. They’ve been reporting on the Avdivka debacle since it began some time ago. Kos is a vet and appears to know his stuff.
Ukraine is still pressing forward in Kherson. The Dnipro river is a major obstacle. It’s encouraging they’re beginning to cross and take back territory.
This seems to be sort of an “Alice in Wonderland” war, where the fact that the attack makes no sense is precisely why it makes sense.
It would create an explosion considerably smaller than if the warhead deployed, but the warload is still volatile fuel and an explosion involving the intact weapon would still look like a special effects pyrotechnic explosion, like the over-flamey explosions you see in movies.
Avdiivka direction:
I knew what that was going to be before I clicked the link. I’ve thought of it before during this war, with regard to Russian tactics.
Spoiler:
It’s a scene from an episode of Blackadder Goes Forth.
So, something we haven’t heard much about… In the opening few weeks of the war, Ukraine was making a priority of targeting the Russian fuel trucks, and the news was reporting that they destroyed a significant fraction of Russia’s entire fuel-truck fleet. Presumably, they wouldn’t have stopped targeting them since, but Russia is still fielding motorized vehicles, that haven’t ground completely to a standstill. What’s the status on that front?
Every day there are videos of Russian trucks getting attacked with kamikaze drones, which seems to be the main method with which they are destroyed. There’s also a lot of use by the Russians of “loafs”, which are Scooby-Doo-style vans, to carry supplies around, which also get targeted by kamikaze drones.
The situation’s a bit different than last year, when attacking trucks was a way to stop the Russians advancing into Ukrainian territory by cutting off their supply. Now Russia is mostly on the defense, attacking them seems to be more part of the overall attritional fight.
Maybe the Russians are desperate enough to get fuel to the front that they’ll consider an armored tracked fuel transport.
Just take out the tracks and you will use more fuel to move it out of there to the troops than it can carry.
So…an experimental rolling bomb, based on an experimental tank platform that Russia pulled from the theater after “tests” that didn’t involve putting it anywhere it could get shot at? I’m sure drivers will be lining up for a crack at this innovation.
this has been going on (on and off) for a good year …
but as long as the UKR doesn’t succeed in bringing armored weaponry to the other side after the initial push … it seems to be more of a “nuisance-mosquito-excursion” than anything that will have any significance beyond bragging-rights / war-story cache
prob. a little of fixing enemy forces in place or so … but not really relevant
It’s the same with the raids in Crimea. The Russians can’t take it for granted anymore and they have to commit forces to defend the territory.
Originally published in the NY Times.
What they need are weapons with a longer range so they can stay on the west side of the river where they’re better defended.
but that will not give them back the east side of their country… at one moment in time you need to committ boots and tracks on the ground …
mind you - i am not critizising them or anything … they seem to be really smart on what they do, esp. NOT dispensing resources into stupid dick-measuring-battles
I assume they wait for the front in the south to crumble (and necessitating more RU troops/materiel) and are laying the groundwork for future more massive attacks - once the time is ripe
E2add:
an add. complexity is - if UKR bring the heavy hitters to the other side of the Dnepr, they MUST succeed, otherwise they will suffer the same faith the RU suffered in Kherson, where they had a lot of materiel on the wrong side of the river and no chance to advance … those scenarios invite a slugfest, where you will be paying the bill … so that is a “make-me-or-break-me” type of scenario.
Boots yes, tracks, no. Tanks are just expensive targets to be taken out from afar. Russia is trying to fight WWII all over again. Take away their tanks, which Ukraine is doing, and you’re left with unmotivated sacks of meat.