…Which is of course the situation we have right now. That looks to me like a colossal blunder on Putin’s part, because it amounts to admitting that they’re never going to use nukes.
We could use a cat’s paw. I was seeing that Australia was putting a lot of M1A1s in storage as they buy M1A2s and Ukraine would love to get their hands on them.
Ukraine is finally able to fully fight back.
Link Ukrainian Bombers Fire 10 Storm Shadow Missiles At Russian Commanders
Russia launches an intercontinental ballistic missle (ICBM] at Ukraine.
I mean, unless they launched from Siberia, that’s not a good use of an Intercontinental ballistic missile. Poor show, Russia.
I suspect it was intended more as a form of political posturing than a proper military attack.
Yes. ICMBs are designed to carry nuclear payloads. They’re sending a message.
NY Times lead says it is disputed an ICBM was used:
Russia struck the city of Dnipro with a volley that Ukraine said included an intercontinental ballistic missile. Western officials said an ICBM was not used.
Canada bought it and then gave to Ukraine.
NASAMS (Norwegian Advanced Surface to Air Missile System)
Russia tries to stem panic over the plummeting ruble, as the central bank is forced to intervene
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Russian authorities are trying to stem panic over the ruble’s sharp fall this week, with the central bank forced to intervene on Wednesday to support the currency.
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The ruble weakened to 114 against the greenback on Wednesday, hitting its lowest level since March 2022, shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine.
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Russia’s central bank (CBR) was forced to intervene on the day to prop up the ruble, it would halt foreign purchases on the domestic currency market for the rest of the year “in order to reduce the volatility of financial markets.”
I’m going to predict that that trading suspension will be extended indefinitely because as soon as it’s removed, the ruble will continue dropping like a rock. The black market in dollars and euros will take up the slack.
Can someone translate that into what it means for Russia’s import of fuel, munitions, and other supplies needed for the war?
Maybe I missed it but have North Korea troops been in direct combat in any numbers? I haven’t seen any confirmed NK POWs or casualties.
Ukraine is doing whatever it takes to keep the fighting in a sector that’s already evacuated and destroyed.
Russian war damage in Kursk is staggering.
They’re facing Putin’s Feb deadline to liberate the occupied area.
Original news source is from X.
Link ‘Catastrophic.’ With Mines, Drones, Artillery And Tanks, Ukrainian Troops Wreck 90 Russian Vehicles Across Four Square Miles Of Kursk.
Link Ukrainian Troops Threw Charges Into A Russian-Held Highrise In Toretsk
I don’t think they’ve been in combat yet, but in November there were reports of a lot of them being killed in missile strikes:
Pokrovsk is the next city that faces a serious seige attack.
OTOH you’d think a deep narrow salient was ripe for being cut off and destroyed from the flanks.
If the war map I’m looking at is up to date, there is a Ukrainian countersalient to the south, so if they push up against it they might make their own flanks vulnerable.
Ukraine is slowly losing the three-year conflict on the battlefield. Russia is slowly losing the economic conflict at a roughly equal pace. The Kremlin’s oil export revenues are too low to sustain a high-intensity war and nobody will lend Vladimir Putin a kopeck.
Total export earnings from all fossil fuels were running at about $US1.2 billion ($1.9 billion) a day in mid-2022. They have fallen for the last 10 months consecutively and are now barely $US600 million.
Russia can get around technology sanctions but its systems are configured to Western semiconductors. These chips cannot easily be replaced by Chinese suppliers, even if they were willing to risk US secondary sanctions, which most are not. The chips are bought at a stiff premium on the global black market and are unreliable.
Ukrainian troops have noticed that Russian Geran-2 drones keep spinning out of control. The Washington Post reports that laser-guided devices on Russia’s T-90M tanks have “mysteriously disappeared”, greatly reducing capability.
Chinese banks have stopped accepting Russian UnionPay cards. The Chinese press says exporters have pulled back from Russian e-commerce sites such as Yandez or Wildberries because payment fees through third-parties no longer cover thin profit margins. Some have been unable to extract their money from Russia and are facing large losses.
Few foresaw the sudden and total collapse of the Soviet regime, though all the signs of economic decay and imperial overreach were there to see by 1989. Putin’s regime is not yet at this point but it would only take one more change in the Middle East to bring matters to a head. If the Saudis again decide to flood the world with cheap crude to recoup market share – as many predict – oil will fall below $US40 and Russia will spin out of economic control.
The Ukraine war may end in Riyadh.
The UK gave 2 billion funded by seized Russian assets.
Perhaps this is enough, along with the military aid that Biden sent this month, to keep Ukraine fighting another year or two?
Russia is bleeding money and soldiers. Perhaps that article @Askance linked is correct. Russia could collapse internally first.
That’s been the plan since the invasion. Ukraine has to hang-on and survive until Russia exhausts themselves politically and wrecks their economy.
Link Ukraine war: US gives $20bn to Kyiv funded by seized Russian assets