The war may all come down now to one thing; how fast Lockheed Martin can churn out GMLRS rockets.
16 Ukrainian HIMARS, although few in number, can go through thousands of rockets like nothing. The U.S. doesn’t have a whole lot in stock. When used, GMLRS has been massacring Russian forces with great effectiveness, but the resupply is a huge pain in the neck since America refuses to land cargo jets directly in Ukraine so all this stuff has to be driven from Poland, a slow and long process.
But if Lockheed Martin can make the rockets fast enough to meet demand, indefinitely, then Ukraine can HIMARS Russia all the way back to pre-Feb-24 borders.