I think you’re making it too complicated. It’s not a question of the implications if he is Town, or if he is Scum. It’s a question of is he credible, based on the details of his claim and Alka’s.
I say to follow our first instinct, test Alka’s theory and lynch him tonight and take his findings for what they’re worth - lucky guesses.
The only thing that would change my mind right now is if Alka were to say that he interpreted “Head Screamer” to be scum but his role PM did not explicitly state alignment.
NETA for clarity: …test Alka’s theory and lynch CIAS tonight and take his findings for what they’re worth - lucky guesses.
Guiri raises an interesting point about Alka’s collecting the shiny objects.
If I remember correctly – and I definitely need this cross-checked – Alka said that he knew of four roles that had berynium (sp???). I don’t recall him saying he knew names.
So he juuuust happened to collect from three people three nights running. Did all three of those people say ahead of time that they had berynium?
Okay, I’ve scoured this thread because I thought there was a post where Guiri basically admitted in not so many words to being VT, but I couldn’t find it. I was thinking that with both Cat and Tom getting a bit of heat, that Cat may have tried to postpone the lynch of her scum teammate by throwing him on the list of vanillas to “confirm” her investigations, and then picking someone who was likely to be VT as the other confirmation. But I can’t find the post I was thinking of with Guiri, so I may very well be misremembering or misinterpreting something else.
And then it occurred to me that if Cat were really trying some sort of scum gambit, there’s no reason why he shouldn’t have said he investigated me on Night One. I would have been a good Cop target Night One, for sure. If he’s scum, he already knows I’m either town or 3rd party. If I’m town, I could confirm him, and if I’m 3rd party, what are the chances I’d admit it if he says I’m VT? So the safest best would have been to claim he investigated me if he’s scum. About the only thing I wonder about is why, if he is a full cop, did he NOT investigate me after the first night? Was it just that he didn’t think I was the Head Screamer? Did he not know he would get full cop results until after the first Night?
Alka, did your role specifically say that the berynium is in the hands of 3 Town and 1 Scum? Or did it say something else that isn’t as clear?
If it said 3 Town and 1 Scum, I think we have to go ahead and lynch Cat. If it said 3 Town and 1 Screamer, or something equally ambiguous, I think we should seriously discuss lynching someone else.
Two of them did, so he only needed one lucky guess. And Cat had posted a few times about berynium, so it wasn’t a completely random guess either.
I think I need an updated playbook of Alive and Claimed, Alive but Unclaimed (of which I am one), and Dead. prtypls?
Yikes, holy skimming Batman.
jpei and Boozy claimed berynium on Day One. That night, jpei turned up dead, and boozy turned up berynium-less. Gryff claimed General Store Owner on Day Two. Alka claimed later on Day Two, saying he knew the Lead/Head Miner, General Store Owner and one other Town had berynium, along with the Head Screamer (scum). He demanded that Boozy reveal his role name, which Boozy did – it matched what Alka had for the third Town in his list. (Megacorp Regional Manager) Later, gryff confirmed he did in fact have berynium, and alka was able to steal it that night, leaving only jpei’s unclaimed of the three Town sources.
That left Cat’s as belonging to the Head Screamer – that one was a guess, if possibly an informed one. I don’t remember if Alka’s said.
I think you are; I did that WoW on Guiri through Day Two last Night and don’t remember anything like that. Thinking of Oredigger’s request to be blockvestigated by Daphne, maybe? (I think it was Oredigger; I keep getting him and USCDiver mixed up.)
Too much WIFOM, though maybe Tom has something in his WoW indicating what Cat thought of you?
Unqualified agreement with the first half of this statement. Not so sure about the second, but let’s see what Alka says.
I’d been mixed up in the peeker arguments, and had voted him in a pile-on vote; he may have wanted to check me on that.
I’m more suspicious of the Daphne investigation - here’s someone who’s about to use a confirmable power, surely there must be a better player to investigate; if he was worried that you were going to lie about the result, why not investigate you instead?
Also, if he knew I was town from his investigation, would he have posted this?
He didn’t vote me, and he didn’t say he thought I was scum, but still.
BTW, I think Cat’s basic role-claim is plausible; it fits in with the pattern of the other power roles in being crippled in an unusual way, and in interacting with specific other players. Certainly a Miller Investigator is an evilish role. Gryff has already mentioned that there was a “good” robot in the movie, so it fits in woth color. And giving Alka three legit investigations and one Miller also fits the evilish nature of the game.
(I also looked through Cat’s Day 3 posts, and the only reference to Daphne I could find was in his wall of words on Normal, where he mentioned that Daphne looked “more and more townie”; but that’s easily explainable by Drain’s confirmation).
I think what I was thinking of was the post in which Guiri called himself a “nervous townie.” That’s the best I can come up with for why I had a strong VT read on him.
The role-claim is plausible as such, but a few things bother me:
What’s this talk of Godfathers, and looking like vanilla Town? Were you explicitly told that Model 5s are indistinguishable from Town?
And “effectively vanilla”? You’re contradicting yourself.
Specifically, you’re contradicting your later assertion that you get more than just “scum leader or not” information – that’s anything but “effectively vanilla” and anything but ironic.
[quote=“Tom_Scud, post:1615, topic:510938”]
State of play
Alive:
Tom Scud
tiltawhirl
Normal Phase
Boozahol Squid, PI
USCDiver
Allwalker
Scuba_Ben
Drain Bead
Gryph
One and Only
Alka Seltzer
Oredigger77
GuirienEspana
CatInASuit
Dead:
BillMC - Vanilla Town
TexCat - Prostitute (Town Recruiting Mason)
jpei - Head Miner (Town Governor)
Thing Fish - Town Bodyguard
amrussell, Ordinary Wife (Vanilla Town)
peekercpa, the Field Medic (Doc-in-Training/Backup Doc)
Freudian Slit, Town Jailor
Daphne, Bartender (Town Roleblocker/weak role cop)
Jimmy Chitwood - Model 5 (Screamer Investigator).
Chronos, Screamer Roleblocker, Model 2
Claims:
OaOW - ineligible non-vanilla town
Drain Bead - Vanilla
Gryff - General Store Owner - Alka confirms
AlkaSeltzer - Government Tax Collector (limited investigator with interest in berynium)
Boozahol Squid, P.I. - Megacorp Regional Manager - Alka confirms
CatinaSuit - Head Screamer (has berynium) - claims Town investigator
Gueri - Town Vanilla
Unclaimed:
Tom Scud
tiltawhirl
Normal Phase
USCDiver
AllWalker
ScubaBen
Oredigger77
??? - Politician
Factual claims:
Boozahol attempted a Night 1 action which did not have the effect he expected
Boozahol had his berynium stolen; Alka claims he took it
Gryff gave an item to Boozahol (confirmed by Boozy)
Thing Fish had his vote bought on Day 2.
Tom Scud received a music box from Gryff, which recorded a distress message saying Tom Scud is Town; will send to someone else on Night 4.
Drain Bead received an unspecified item from Gryff, which has to be used on another player.
Oredigger77 volunteered to be blocked on Night 3, however Daphne said she would choose her own block target.
CatinaSuit claims the following investigation results:
Night 1 - Tom Scud Vanilla
Night 2 - Daphne Black Town roleblocker/weak role cop
Night 3 - Gueri Vanilla.
Day 1 Leader: AllWalker -> jpei (Town Power)
Day 2 Leader: Boozahol Squid, P.I.
Day 3 Leader: Alka Seltzer
Votes spoilered
Day 1 Final Vote
jpei (1): Freudian Slit
peekercpa(3): Gryph, Boozahol Squid, PI, Cold Phoenix
Drain Bead (2): USCDriver, CatInASuit
Bill MC(8): Jimmy Chitwood, Drain Bead, tiltawhirl, Alka Seltzer, Daphne Black, Allwalker, Texcat, jpei (Leader)
Boozahol Squid, PI(3): Bill MC, Thing Fish, Chronos
CatInASuit (2): amrussell, Tom Scud
Cold Phoenix (2): Oredigger, Guiri
Tom Scud(1): Peeker
Chronos(1): Normal Phase
Day 2 final vote:
Gryff(1):
Daphne(3): Gryff, Drain Bead, Chronos
Freudian Slit(4): AllWalker, Tiltawhirl, Tom Scud, peeker
Thing Fish(7): amrussell, Boozy Squid, CiaS, Normal Phase, Scuba Ben, Thing Fish, Guiri
Peeker (1): Alka Seltzer
Day 3 final vote:
Chronos(9): Oredigger, USCDiver, Tiltawhirl, Gryff, DaphneBlack, DB, CatInASuit, OaOW, Boozy Squid
Drain Bead(6) : Tom Scud, Normalphase, Alka(leader), Chronos, Scuba_Ben, GuiriEnEspana
No vote: AllWalker
Also, I think I am now down firmly on the side of lynching Cat. I don’t wanna get all Chronos-like, but the choice of Daphne for a night 2 investigation is just odd, and even if it is a mislynch, we end up with a pretty good situation, with 5 confirmed town and Gryff’s little toys helping to increase our confirmed count.
Is Alka leader yet?
That said, I can see a perfectly good Town reason for Cat to shade his initial role claim; if his claim IS honest, he’s now the top night-kill target for both scum and serial killers.
Thanks very much, Normal Phase and Tom Scud.
It occurs to me that Alka has used up the extent of his claimed power and is (pending independent confirmation of his reports) now a plain, awaiting-confirmed Townie. This makes Alka a potentially reliable subject to test more of Gryff’s goodies.
Another thought – I reread Tom’s player list, and find that both he and NP are in the unclaimed (and potential Scum) pool. I remember my first game, where I trusted Idle Thoughts’s helpfulness, and he turned out to be a very devious Scum.
Also, peeker being the Doc in Training / Back-up Doc implies the existence of a full Doc.
And someone is the Politician.
And OAOW has an unspecified role.
How close are we to having a mass claim?
As another thought, how close are we to asking for Gryff to post an inventory list?
Separate thought, more direct: Has Boozy stated what his role as Regional Manager does? Have we determined whether that’s a role inclined towards Town or Scum? It would certainly be evil-ish for a reformed Screamer to be a Town role and a neutral-sounding Regional Manager to be a Scum role. (The answers probably were posted between pages 3 and 28, where I’ll never get to them.)
Alka Seltzer (10): Alka, DB, Norm Phase, Scudsy, AllWalker, USCD., Boozy Squid, OaOW, Gryff, CiaS
Boozy Squid (2): Guiri, Digger
Yes.
Gryff (1):
Ben:
Thing Fish was the sorta-Doc to whom Peeker was backup.
Also, I should have put a
??? - Vigilante/Serial Killer
on my role list.
Also also, Alka says he has another power.