@Alka, when you searched **CIAS **last Night and found berynium, did you automatically collect it? Perhaps losing the berynium caused him to lose his title as Head Screamer and revert to the role our other Model 5 Screamer also carried (Investigator).
Just from glancing at that, it looks like CatInASuit was voting for Chronos near the tipping point of his votes exceeding Drain Bead. I am about to go out so can’t check it right now, but it may have been decided that Chronos was lost and he (and maybe someone else?) decided to jump on the lynch for town cred?
I think Chronos was up 6-3 or 6-4 at the time Cat voted, so it wasn’t all THAT close.
Quicky Wall of Words on Tilt, so I can compare with Cat’s of yesterday:
419 in response to Tom Scud asking her to participate, discusses jpei, who she thinks acted anti-town but with no vote; thinks peeker’s accusation of Tom is baseless, but not nec. scummy. Is aligned with town.
443 Thinks Chronos’ vote on OaOW is legitimate; Thinks lie detector thing is potentially useful, not noise. Votes Drain Bead.
454 did declare town, was not on Drain’s list
520 unvotes Drain to take pressure off. promises to check Tom Scud’s case on Oredigger.
579 thinks Oredigger doesn’t look scummy; thinks Tom Scud is playing pro-town.
664 wonders if peeker could have false-claimed Doc as Town. Wonders what scum motive Drain would have to claim vanilla.
669 is against peeker lynch at this time; not sure about jpei, unenthusiastic about drain bead lynch.
704 (after jpei coup) "Huh. I wondered if OaOW might have a power similar to this since he’s ineligible to be Leader. jpei shouldn’t you have role claimed before using what might have been a useful power under your “Jim Jones” scenario???
708 votes BillMC for singling out Boozy for a vote for his “A” doc interpretation.
867 will stay with BillMC vote; FOS Chronos for “pushing an agenda not supported by town”
896 fluff
1018 dissents from view that confirmed town should be Leader, thinks it gives a player a chance to prove Towniness or lack thereof, elects Tom Scud.
1358 apologizes for not keeping up
1433 votes Daphne Black to encourage her to cough up info on Freudian
1475 unvotes Daphne, votes Freudian for abandoning the game
1540 apologizes to Thing Fish, asks next leader to please commit to a friendlier time of day
1649 elects Tom Scud for being mindful of time of day
1655 fluff
1699 again thinks unconfirmed players should be leaders; also, thought Boozy’s leadership had proven anti-Town.
1700 “NETA: I have few reasons to believe Tom Scud is Town.”
1731 confesses to bandwagon jumping, votes Chronos [putting him up 6-1], welcomes alternate cases
1837 “Tom Scud’s ass-saving pledge may be so transparent as to be kind of subtle. In a throwaway post he promises to derail Chronos’ bandwagon. Then, he unveils a two-part WoW on DB and justifies his vote for her on the basis of the previous case and for the same reason he originally voted Chronos: the failure to strategy vote Freudian Slit to save Thing Fish. Not only is the DB case revived, but Tom Scud also draws votes to himself for no good reason (is that part of saving Chronos’ posterior, too?)”
1939 On bandwagoning: “I meant to say that I have been focused on current the vote leaders, not that I haven’t put a good portion of consideration into each of my votes.”
1961 "I see [Oredigger] volunteering to be blocked/investigated as mildly anti-Town but not overly scummy. At this point I see greater value in Daphne selecting her own target. If she’s town, she could luck upon one of the scum power players and score a big win.
2146 apologizes for absence. Votes CiaS.
2148 fluff
Not seeing anything clearly pro or anti-Town; stayed well within the game consensus, as she admits herself. Chronos FOS is interesting but late enough in the Day, and not backed by a vote, that it’s not all THAT relevant.
And as far as I can tell, Cat played this one straight; can’t see him putting his thumb down on the scales anywhere in his Wall, either.
Just looked, and Cat’s vote actually made it 7-2. The closest the vote got was 4-3, while Drain was voting herself; Daphne pulled it to 5-3, and Drain’s revote of Chronos made it 6-2.
I’m up to post 1800 looking at Chronos and CIAS; can’t finish before tomorrow.
I still think this is the best way to go forward. Ben or Gueri on the Drain-wagon could be scum, but I’m pretty sure they aren’t both scum; there’s more likely to be another scum on my short list than that two jumping at the last minute onto the Drain-wagon. Of the four, I feel AllWalker is the most Townie with his vote for Chronos at a time when it could have gathered a wagon. I’m torn on the other three, having walled them all; none of them had big flashing scum signs over their heads, but none of them really did anything particularly Townie. At the moment I’m leaning towards Diver.
NETA: “than that two jumpED at the last minute…”
/snipped, bolding mine
A bit of tit for tat here…
Our other Model 5 Screamer?
Tom, you may be onto something here.
Alka, can you show me where you said what posts indicated CIAS might have berynium? In particular, whether they came before or after your role reveal? I think that might help me interpret the WoW on him a bit.
Yeah, that was a poor word choice too. I’m referring of course to Jimmy Chitwood. I was using the word ‘our’ to indicate he was a player in the game, not a member of my team.
Here are all the Night Two/Day Three posts from CIAS and Chronos (CIAS posted nothing informative on Night Three).
CIAS
[spoiler]Night Two
1530 bad end to Day, sorry Thing Fish
1531 was asleep at Day end, wants better Day end time and list of where people are
1559 oog, computer trouble
Day Three
1625 internet back, so sad town, elect Alka
1685 where is Oredigger?
1724 WoW on Chronos, started mainly because he was getting heat; only afterwards noticed Tom already did one. Posts his anyway. Offers conclusions that pretty much amount to Chronos being vaguely suspicious, but does not vote.
1725 corrects himself to say he will NOT do a WoW on Tom
1726 Requests Tom note that he said he would change his vote on TF if there was a roleclaim, which he wasn’t around to see in the end. Also wants to know why Guiri wasn’t on Tom’s list.
1727 asks why Ben was ready to unvote FS
1736 Asks for clarification on the explanation for Ben’s comment (which was provided by Drain Bead)
1792 thanks for WoWs; why is Drain Bead wanting to lynch herself?
1798 analysis of Day Two votes without a lot of substance. Points out as “interesting” that Drain Bead and tiltawhirl pushed Daphne back to five votes after Guiri and CIAS had made it five for TF, but does not say what he means by that. References the definitive swing (OAOW unvoting Daphne; me and Ben voting TF) without saying what he thinks of that either. Then mentions the stuff that happened after TF’s claim, which we’ve already beaten to death; and reiterates a request for a more friendly Day-ending time.
1799 Drain Bead determined to be lynched, asking confirmed Townies to vote for her, is she a bomb?
1802 WoW on tiltawhirl, prompted by her pushing the vote on Daphne long post-claim. Comments she’s hanging in there for a new player, reasonably consistent, unvoting Daphne and voting FS once given a good reason was a pro-Town move; wanting an unconfirmed player as leader is hard to analyze; overall not that much to go on.
1821 more Drain Bead-as-bomb speculation: asking for power roles good idea, given suspicion on her; effect same no matter when she’s lynched; actions more likely to get people to vote Chronos. Town might ask for self-lynch, but it’s rare and always hurts Town. Chronos looks Scummy, but which is scummier?
1822 half a WoW on me, which he terms “interesting”, presumably speaking of my comments as regards Drain Bead (the three comments he provided links for in that WoW were all about her). Then goes on to characterize the idea of Tom and me being Scum together as unlikely because of our sticking our necks out; also says it’s unlikely either of us is trying to save Chronos via our unvotes, though he’s a bit more wishy-washy about me than about Tom. Ends by saying Daphne is looking increasingly Townie; Drain Bead not – they’re not likely Scum together.
1829 (response to Alka saying Drain Bead’s actions on Day One were not good bomb play) jokes about Jimmy saving her for a rainy day, then agrees bomb is unlikely
1846 fluff, needs some sleep
1855 has slept on it, votes Chronos for lack of analysis and pursuit of soft claims (not so much for lack of vote switch at end of Day Two). Defends (sort of) Drain Bead’s end-of-day actions and concludes anti-Town does not necessarily mean not-Town. Maybe.
1890 fluff[/spoiler]
Chronos
[spoiler]Night Two
1516 complains about being made executioner in the write-up
1550 points out lack of overlap between daphne and thing fish bandwagons; thinks it was coincidence
1553 list of Thing Fish voters may be incomplete – politician forced vote
1557 back and forth with peeker
1571 fluff poke at peeker
1572 ditto
1581 (defense of DaphneBlack re-vote) just voting for most suspicious person; role color makes no sense
Day Three
1618 good news: we seem to have vig rather than SK, since SK would have killed one of the partly confirmed Townies. Good argument now for gryff being Town, elect gryff if eligible.
1639 unelect Gryff, elect Boozy, who is more confirmed than Alka is. Not sure what to make of daphne. Gives the list of five possibilities I objected to a few posts later. Can’t decide which it is, has to think.
1651 (response to me) does movie give any hint to plausibility of Daphne’s role color; plausible that she might find out Screamers based on their lack of alcohol response; speculation on third party berynium-related win condition; maybe peeker wasn’t actually role-blocked and it was a matter of who he’d tried to visit, as he once speculated; can’t rule out DB-DB Scum team, wants to look at bandwagons again
1652 correction to Drain Bead regarding what Daphne said about FS
1661 asks Scuba if he has anything to report on the doily.
1663 counterattack on Tom – how is Tom’s vote consistent with his earlier statement that Jimmy’s behavior somewhat confirmed him?
1671 (response to Drain Bead’s vote) says previous post was not really anti-Daphne, was just listing every possible explanation, not sure what’s right. Complains that he’s getting votes for voting for the person he thought most likely Scum – strategic voting of the type requested for him is idiotic because it just lets Scum manipulate bandwagons; feels like he’s being punished for being active, since he was around and others weren’t, despite others not voting Freudian, or voting TF
1678 (again in response to Drain Bead) complains Day One vote being misrepresented – was policy vote, but also thought OAOW/Boozy were likely Scum. Also asks why AllWalker (who had expressed suspicion without voting) gave any weight to peeker’s opinion.
1678 doily fluff
1695 (response to Alka, who had expressed minor issues with Chronos within a post that was mostly focused on Guiri) didn’t like alka’s “wait and see” as regards Daphne because he was pretty convinced she was Scum; today has no clue, so “wait and see” makes more sense. Would like her to target someone other than Drain Bead; however, no one should volunteer to be blocked due to danger of reducing power role hiding pool. Asks if goons would come back as non-vanilla.
1696 Tom barking up wrong tree. Refers back to Tom’s “somewhat confirmed” post to demonstrate inconsistency. Includes his reference to Drain Bead looking “completely skeevy” to demonstrate Tom’s not voting for the scummiest person in the room either. Votes Tom. Doesn’t appreciate Drain Bead’s vote either nor her mischaracterization of his post about Daphne, but thinks it makes more sense in context.
1708 talks about program, doesn’t know how to defend against SK charge (referring to my vote) since SK would be indistinguishable from vanilla Town; is not planning to false-claim Vig.
1710 posts program results. Says he assumes 5-6 Scum, more would be unbalanced, says relatively high numbers by Alka and Drain Bead don’t mean much due to claims they’ve made that the program can’t take into account.
1715 program fluff
1744 defense of his program against USCDiver complaint; says he’ll correct Thing Fish’s alignment when he gets home (on suggestion from Guiri); sees my point about SKs wanting to self-protect, but he’s been doing a lousy job of it; expresses wish for people to talk about things other than him.
1749 (response to question regarding Chronos’s characterization of Tom as inconsistent) him saying Drain Bead looks extremely skeevy is important, plus “somewhat confirmed” rather than “suggested Town”
1777 (after the Drain Bead case, and both Tom and I have unvoted him) glad your vote is off me, I guess, but too sleep deprived to comment
1828 @ Drain Bead – either of them dying not horribly bad for Town, as they’ve both been distractions and for all either of them knows, the other might be Scum. Argues that from her standpoint, if she’s Town, she should prefer him dead (and not be pushing her own death.) Argues if she’s Scum, it’s more likely she’s just trying to sow confusion than that she’s a bomb-type role.
1836 (response to Drain Bead voting him) well at least that makes more sense
1838 keeping vote on Tom since circumstances of his vote switch look fishy (though he wasn’t trying to save a scummy teammate) – he might have been wanting to get off bandwagon before Chronos came up Town. May have to switch to Drain Bead for self-preservation eventually.
1852 (response to Boozy’s defense of his vote timing) people were expecting boozy to place his vote during the day, not at night; and the problem is that there was NOT a late vote swing, when there arguably should have been
1866 FS’s status (at that time) hurts us due to loss of alignment information; comatose status could be exploited by Scum, so if she ever turns up again, lynch/vig her immediately
1876 claims vanilla Town, votes Drain Bead[/spoiler]
I think I’ll have time to add my comments before Dawn, but have an appointment right now.
I may as well keep on looking, but I don’t expect to find anything.
See my reasoning on how I found Cat here:
http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11713394&postcount=2189
This is the post that made me think he might be trying to protect a power role:
http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11641035#post11641035
That came before my claim and Daphne’s.
Tom’s music box is interesting, but it really needs a 3-way handshake to give us useful info. I think the player who receives it should play it overnight, pass it on the next night and report any results the following morning. The next player to get it should report what it says immediately.
Going back to the Jimmy Chitwood well one more time, as he helpfully suggested:
I thought I would pull up the intervals before and color-code them (red for scum, blue for town, purple for Bling).
One thing worth noting about vote analysis on Day 1 is that basically everyone who was ever in a vote lead is now confirmed town, except Drain Bead, who is very likely Town based on her interactions with Chronos IMO.
I have no idea if it’s re-recordable, in which case its utility is pretty limited; if you choose to trust that it was auto-recorded, then it confirms one player (me). I’d argue that Gryff wasn’t likely to have TWO anti-town items in his bag of tricks, but then I would if I were scum, wouldn’t I?
Broadly, I agree that the recipient should at least try to record over my message, and I hope that I’ll be able to avoid a mislynch without the recipient coming forward.
**Alka **can you comment on my post in #2203?
Do night actions happen before night kills go through? For example, if I’m killed tonight, will the music box still be delivered to its recipient?
Thanks, Alka. So to all appearances, CIAS would not have been expecting to wind up exposed any time soon – his posts would have been aimed at the longer term.
Some interesting points from the pair of WoWs:
– Chronos and CIAS were on opposite sides regarding Tom. Chronos was strongly against Tom that entire Day. Had a vote on him for most of that time, until required to move it for self-preservation. Even the results from his program may have been aimed at Tom – Tom had the third-highest number in the output, and Chronos made a point of noting that the top two (Alka and Drain Bead had artificially high numbers due to factors the program could not take into account. As Guiri pointed out at one point, Chronos’ program inputs were incorrect (he had Thing Fish as still unconfirmed), so there is a strong possibility he posted the output in order to support a point he was already trying to make.
CIAS on the other hand, said very little about Tom, but what he did say was supportive, arguing that it was unlikely that Tom was colluding with Chronos regarding the vote switch. It’s not a very strong statement of support, but it is about the strongest statement he made all Day. (In retrospect, CIAS is the very picture of Scum trying to avoid being pinned down on anything; a couple of his posts are pretty remarkable for how little they say given the number of words they contain.)
I think Tom is probably Town, for a number of reasons I’ll expand on if anyone cares, if we’re both still alive in the morning. In that light, I think the Chronos/CIAS attitudes toward him make a lot of sense: Chronos going for the immediate reward of trying to smudge his main accuser and a very influential player; and CIAS playing for the long haul in terms of grabbing a little bit of Town cred.
The other thing that stood out was that both referenced Scuba Ben. Chronos asked him if he’d learned anything from the doily – Ben responded he’d never received it. CIAS asked Ben to explain a comment from the previous Day referencing Freudian Slit; Drain Bead responded with a possible explanation, and CIAS dropped the issue.
I’m not sure what to make of this. In the absence of Ben’s comments from yesterday I’d interpret it as a sign that Chronos was fishing for info from Ben (and hence that they were not on the same team). And CIAS would have been fishing for an easy vote to maybe detract from the bandwagon on Chronos. I still think this is most likely exactly what that all means (hence Ben is Town or at least not-Scum), but Ben’s comments make me a little uneasy that it may have been a deliberate distancing on both their parts.
I think Cat probably decided to be a bit cautious due to my WoW on him (especially since I’d preemptively FOS’d him if Freudian flipped Town, as he had to figure would happen eventually); I think he was trying to play Good Townie on Day 3 aside from giving the “Drain Bead is a Bomb” theory a couple kicks to see if he could get it to go anywhere.