Screamers Mafia

[Jimmy_Chitwood]

Piss.

Well, bye.

[Drain_Bead]

Hrm. Gryff is starting the Day with a vote. I can only assume it has something to do with the Tiara. Curious as to whether that was a Town or Scum power used on him.

Just on straight analysis of votes, Jimmy doesn’t give us much to go by. He was certainly trying to pass as the Helpful Townie. I have about 20 minutes right now, which doesn’t really give me time to go through and analyze his posts. I do remember him sticking up for me at one point when the wagon was going on–I should probably try to analyze who he defended and who he agreed with and see what there is to see.

[Oredigger77]

There really wasn’t anything in Jimmy’s voting pattern, he had two votes one was the second against Peeker and the other was the first against Bill. We already knew that bill probably had some scum on the wagon so that’s not a surprise. The vote against Peeker does help him to look a bit more townie.

Since we only get to see one vote from the leader I’m thinking that we need someone who is going to post a lot to be our leader so the information balances out. I don’t trust the timing of Peeker’s claim and Jimmy’s vote could have been a bussing so I’m not comfortable having him as the Leader. That leaves Drain as the leading poster by a large margin so that where my leader vote is going.

Vote Drain Bead for Leader

[USCDiver]

@Tom_Scud

Also, 3 deaths. Serial Killer, Vig, scum? Or something else?

I can think of a multitude of different possibilities in a closed setup game. I don’t think we’ll get much use out of speculating on who or why. What we CAN do though is look back over the three dead players’ voting/posting records from Yesterday.

[Tom_Scud]

@Jimmy_Chitwood

peeker is going to get me killed for talking to you too much, but an additional datapoint about OreDigger is the fact that he took the fairly distinctive approach of pushing OaOW to claim (in post 250).

Anyway. peeker, I’m sure you’re sick of getting prodded by me, but can you explain why a pro-town Doc who was given the secret knowledge that there were multiple docs would think it in town’s best interest to reveal that secret info? I can think of a sparkling scum motivation to drop that nugget, but I’m not so sure about how it could help town.

Here’s Jimmy’s first poke at the “multiple doctor claim” argument against Peeker. As a bonus, he throws a bit more fuel onto my argument against Oredigger, probably hoping to see if someone else wanted to bite this time and carry the ball forward. I was already inclined to think of Digger as a bit towny - now I’m much more so.

Jimmy ALSO led the charge on Bill.

[Tom_Scud]

BTW, Jimmy’s vote against Bill was actually the second, but peeker later unvoted.

[Normal_Phase]

Holy schmoley, I was not expecting that. In fact, I was planning to promote Jimmy Chitwood for Leader for his sensible play.

I say Boozy for Leader, unless he thinks it’d cramp his style.

[Normal_Phase]

Boozy, that is.

[GuiriEnEspana]

I don’t get the **TexCat **kill, are scum doing Lynch the lurker too? Seems pretty strange, no?

[USCDiver]

From here on out (barring some major revelation) I’m going to base my Leader vote on the player I feel is most confirmed as Town.

**elect Boozahol Squid, P.I. **

[Tom_Scud]

Here’s the other major post by Jimmy: basically, the piece that derailed the Drain Bead bandwagon.

At this point, I don’t know what that means exactly - Jimmy may have been buying Townie cred by stopping a lynch of a townie, knowing that peeker (also a townie, by this theory) was the likely lynch victim. But I’d say we should definitely NOT elect Drain Bead at this point.

@Jimmy_Chitwood

That’s what I’ve been doing, Tom - reviewing the Drain Bead thread. It’s very confusing.

Starting with post 239. DB has at this point learned that, contrary to her (her, right?) expectation as previously indicated, OaOW can’t be Leader because of his role, not because of somebody’s power. DB says not to claim, at least not yet. That’s more or less what a lot of us are saying at this point, and nobody’s giving Drain Bead any crap for it.

The crucial posts are # 332 and 345. Here’s why: DB has no votes on her for awhile after making those two posts, until amrussell says (post numbers added by me):

Follow-up votes come hot and heavy, with minor variations on the same theme. First obvious question that jumps out - were the two reasons amrussell gives here legitimate? So first, was there a U-turn on Chronos? I’d say no, there wasn’t. DB didn’t want OaOW to claim – don’t claim soft, don’t claim hard, don’t claim with a St. Bernard*. In this light, it is, I think, totally legitimate to say on the one hand that the willingness of OaOW to acknowledge a non-vanilla role was a bad thing (I disagree, but it’s a consistent position) and then say on the other hand that Chronos should not push for a full claim. That’s not a U-turn.

The second part of the case was the Lie Detector thing. I don’t think that there’s any reason not to give the LD a statement to work with, since it essentially deputizes the LD into a full role cop and that’s something we want. I have to admit, though, that I’m a very suspicious player in these games, and my initial thinking when Chronos said that was “He could be inviting an investigation because he knows he’ll trick the investigator.” I remember in the last game with a Lie Detector, there was concern that a Godfather might be able to trick the LD the same way he would trick an investigation. If somebody came right out and said “I’m Town, I should be investigated tonight so we can clear me,” that would be really suspicious, right? So I’m willing to give DB a little room there for healthy paranoia, personally, because it occurred to me. In the end, though, it’s probably reading too much of my own style into it, since that isn’t even what DB’s point was.

The bulk of the discussion, it seems to me, has been about DB and giving the LD something to work with. I think that’s been hashed out to everybody’s satisfaction, and DB has given her reasons, like them or not. I really feel like everything else has been without much merit.

Anyway, I started this summary in order to get my own thoughts straight about what’s going on here. I think my conclusion is that the hesitance to go along with the Lie Detector thing when others obviously were willing counts as anti-town enough to justify a day 1 vote, so if that’s why people feel she’s the prime candidate, I can see it. I also think it should be noted that point #1 in case #1 made against DB was a specious one, and we should be aware of that going forward, and scrutinize those who jumped on board with that analysis without much rigor.

*this is actually the improved version. It started as a Harry Potter joke, I’m sorry to say.

[Tom_Scud]

Also a small smudge of Chronos in Jimmy’s save-Drain-Bead post.

[Boozahol_Squid_P.I]

Happy to serve, if you guys want me to. Should be an interesting challenge to stop myself from throwing out votes like they’re party favors.

In interesting news last night, somebody stole my berynium. ‘Shiny’ claims may not be advisable.

[USCDiver]

@GuiriEnEspana

I don’t get the **TexCat **kill, are scum doing Lynch the lurker too? Seems pretty strange, no?

Can you explain why it is you’re assuming TexCat was killed by Scum?

[Tom_Scud]

@GuiriEnEspana

I don’t get the **TexCat **kill, are scum doing Lynch the lurker too? Seems pretty strange, no?

It makes sense to look for power roles among the players that have been quiet, perhaps hoping to stay under the radar.

[Boozahol_Squid_P.I]

@Tom_Scud

It makes sense to look for power roles among the players that have been quiet, perhaps hoping to stay under the radar.

It makes a lot more sense for scum to kill confirmed Townies, doesn’t it?

[Tom_Scud]

@Boozahol_Squid_P.I

Happy to serve, if you guys want me to. Should be an interesting challenge to stop myself from throwing out votes like they’re party favors.

In interesting news last night, somebody stole my berynium. ‘Shiny’ claims may not be advisable.

I came up with two possible roles for a shiny thief:

1 - a wins-with-whoever thief - he’s stealing enough berynium to power his tiny escape capsule that lets him get away safe.

2 - a terrorist trying to build a nuke who steals berynium (or whatever) to create a bomb, PFKing everyone.

[Tom_Scud]

@Boozahol_Squid_P.I

It makes a lot more sense for scum to kill confirmed Townies, doesn’t it?

Yes, it does. Sorry, had my “Mafia 101” hat on. You’re right of course. jpei looks much more likely to be the scum night-kill, if they only had one.

[Tom_Scud]

This post by Jimmy:

@Jimmy_Chitwood

Neither does AllWalker.

Anyway, my condolences re: your day. Here is the picture of a cowboy monkey riding a dog that you implicitly requested.

amrussell, good stuff, that. Off the top of my head, this interval:

seems like a good starting point for further investigation, since it’s the one that damned a townie. Of course, it damned the townie that I put the first vote on, but that’s not important right now.

Would seem to indicate that the people who piled on after vote #3 on BillMC are poor prospects for scum (though possibly third party). I guess there might be one in there, and he figured 1 in 5 is pretty bad odds.

[Chronos]

Quoth Tom Scud:

Also, I’d count Boozahol as basically confirmed Town at this point.

OK, apparently I’m missing something. What did Boozahol do that confirmed him?