NETA I didn’t go into more detail until Boozy posted his “i wuz robbed” announcement on account of it didn’t seem worth going into elaborate speculation without further data. Which Boozy provided.
and this is a fair point. i don’t spend a whole lot of time on the color portion of these games because color is just color and mods can and will go against canon if it fits within the overall structure of the setup. however, some folks can and do pay a little more attention to the color. there is nothing inherently good or bad in this, it just is. apparently there are some who are more familiar with the back story than i (which would be zero). and tom, to be totally fair, falls into the latter camp so that this kind of supposition would be more “natural” coming from him than, say, me (i would have had to research the whole back story, cogitate and then see how it could fit within the context of the game, factor in possibilities and conjectures and then get it typed). it would have taken me a lot longer to come up with that than tom. but, like i said, i want to be fair. but i also know that it is still a durn quick turnaround.
OK, thanks.
and one other point to be totally fair and not be accused of confirmation bias. tom does seem to speculate that the benadryl (i know how to spell that) is more of a power thing while boozy and gryf have clairfied that it is more of a fungible item. this does not remove my reservations, however.
So a while ago, someone asked me what I thought of the development and deceleration of my wagon yesterDay. I didn’t really have time to address it until now, because at the time what I was thinking was that something was rubbing me the wrong way and I wasn’t sure what, and that’s generally useless in this game. Anyway, I went back to give a look-see if I could articulate my oogy feeling, and here’s what I came up with.
So at this point I’m “screaming ‘not Town’” to Daphne. Understandable, since I already had three votes on me, and she is about to add the fourth, which she was thinking about adding before there were three votes but is now really gonna.
Skip forward a couple of pages. My wagon is starting to derail, and a few votes are going onto Oredigger
[spoiler]It does look like Oredigger was pushing the Drain Bead wagon and then backing off. I’m not sure I’m ready to vote for him yet – I’d like to hear what he has to say, but for now I will
unvote Drain Bead.
I remain suspicious of her, and I would still like to hear why she was so anti-scum/PFKs finding each other (I don’t think she ever really addressed that). I may well re-vote her depending on what she and Oredigger have to say today.[/spoiler]
Two things ping me about this post. First, and this is a bit picky, but it seems like she is at this point assuming that I am Town, and trying to paint Oredigger as scummy by pushing my wagon and not actually voting for me. There are other assumptions that one could make there, especially for someone who two pages ago was “screaming ‘not Town’” to her. The other, and probably more important, is that she is unvoting me, but maintaining her suspicions of me, and claiming that Oredigger was pushing my wagon, which is the sort of action that might result in a vote if she doesn’t like how Oredigger explains it.
And then we get to her later posts during the Day. First, post 591:
[spoiler]
I’m no longer confident in the case against Drain Bead, though she is still suspicious: I’d still like to hear her explain her comment about the potential lie-detector being bad because of allowing scum and third parties to find each other.
If she doesn’t explain that bit in a reasonable way (as she has some of the other points against her), I’ll probably vote her again.[/spoiler]
Note that she is no longer confident that I’m Scum, but is suspicious enough of me that she may revote me later.
Then there’s post 627, in which she says this while voting for jpei:
I’m not going to vote for peeker at this point, but I’m not going to vote for you guys either. I’m still suspicious of Drain Bead but I don’t think she’s the best lynch candidate at this point.
So again, she’s talking about other cases, voting for other people, but is STILL suspicious of me, to the point in which she mentions that in a post in which she votes for someone else. So at one point she smudges Oredigger for doing something which she then essentially goes on to do herself–trying to push (or keep going) a wagon on me after unvoting me and switching to two other Town targets, jpei and later BillMC.
Now, I certainly don’t think this is an airtight case, and it suffers a bit from the fact that I know what role I have, while the rest of you do not have the faith that I am Town that I do. 
But the inconsistently-applied logic and bandwagon-jumping among Town targets are two noob-Scum mistakes, and because someone has to get this show on the road, I will…
vote DaphneBlack
and db is spot on regarding getting the show on the road.
and will wonders never cease.
**vote tom **
the timing is metagame out the wazoo. not entirely inexplicable but still odd.
its the inference with seeming knowledge of scum and town being possessive of benadryl that tips it. also, the question about melting screamers for benadryl just is totally left fieldish. and the entire body of work just screams (get it) not town. helpful without staking anything controversial. middle of the packish. support from all corners. it just smells third party.
the only thing i can’t figure out is whether he is an add on to either side victory or a stealer. his options on the beneadryl thing regarding a thief seem to indicate an add on. but he also goes down the potential bomb threat so, meh.
but i also know that allowing a third party wander around is not good for town. so, yep. i’ve got to vote him again.
oh, and neta.
if he is scum then lynching him is not a bad thing either.
I have to agree with Drain Bead here, Daphne was feeling off to me as well, but I only concentrated on her comments directly too/about me (as per my earlier corrections of my arguments) and couldn’t really find something strong enough to confirm my feelings.
Looking at the way she has commented about you seems to be of a similar nature to the mild twisting of my arguments earlier.
Vote DaphneBlack
I sort of suspected to see votes coming on me for my bad play yesterday. I don’t necessarily think people who are suspicious of me are scummy, and I have said several times that I agree I was not ultimately the most pro-Town player yesterday. But I don’t really where there is a plausible scum motivation for my actions with regard to Drain Bead. My bandwagon-jumping is not worth defending, and was probably unfortunate, but I did feel that I explained my rationale when voting each time for what seemed a decent Day One case. I will try to have more original reasoning for my vote today, as that is always more pro-Town. I am town, and I want to help town. I don’t think voting for me is voting for scummitude, but bad townie play. I don’t think that’s good for town in the long run.
Gryff, please do elaborate on what was ‘off’ with my comments to you?
Well, this is interesting. If I weren’t among the initiators I’d say this is a prime example of scum setting up a bandwagon. It may actually be that and I was just drawn in by some well stated arguments - none of which were supported by a vote.
First Thing Fish expresses suspicion #1096.
Then Alka asks Peeker to review Daphne’s play so far #1097.
Next Amrussel presents a good analysis on probable bandwagon votes and notes that Daphne was involved in most of them #1098.
Then I post my own doubts #1102.
Then Drain Bead voted with a decent argument #1187.
And now Gryff votes #1190 with a slightly less clear argument.
I’m not convinced although I remain suspicious. However as no-one answered my question about instinct being a good enough reason for a vote - I guess it’s not.
@ Daphne, I mentioned in my post #1102 that I was a little peeved that you hadn’t bothered to respond to my explanation. This is the main reason you popped up on my radar in the first place - the successive arguments made me look back over your Day 1 posts.
Vote Count:
Gryff(1):
Daphne(2): DrainBead, Gryff
Tom Scud(1): peeker
i’ll take a shot. it is very rare that someone really nails the setup just based on facts. it seems to me that feel plays as much of a factor as anything. sure every now and then there is something so egregious that even i pick up on it. but for the most part it is much more subtle. and a lot of the times if you go with your gut you will be as right as often as if you are looking for something more objective. now it’s helpful if your gut feel is also complimented by some concrete stuff. but even the concrete stuff is, for the most part, pretty darn non solid or at least open to interpretation. so, go with what you feel and what makes you feel that way would be my advice. for example, there have been observations that my claim was either scummy or down right anti town. hey, them’s the breaks. obviously i don’t agree or i wouldn’t have played it that way. but i don’t think that anyone in either of those groups would suggest that a doc claim with a vote total of x on post number y is conclusive evidence one way or the other. it’s just what they feel. now obviously their feelings can be colored by their alignment but that is just one more piece of information to be fed into the ol’ feeling computer.
FWIW, I think instinct is often a better guide to scum than detailed analysis of posts. Voting records can be very useful too, but picking apart words and ‘analysing’ tone and the like doesn’t seem fruitful.
Guiri, I’m sorry that I missed responding your post with an explanation the first time through. Sometimes I will read something and think ‘ah, ok then’ and post that, sometimes I’ll just think it and not post anymore if I’m satisfied. Sometimes things get swallowed up in other conversations.
What I do is follow my instincts and ask myself the question ‘what’s the scum motivation’ for the behaviour that’s pinging me.
Quoth Normal Phase:
That’s not really “data”, that’s the plural of anecdote. That list only contains things that I thought were relevant, and if I didn’t notice the relevance of something, it wouldn’t end up on the list. Except for the votes, which are data, and which I will be analyzing thoroughly once we get enough, but that probably won’t be for another Day or three-- The large number of players this game makes it harder to find patterns in the votes.
Quoth Guiri:
Eh, I don’t think it’s any odder than TexCat (presumably) giving her wares away for free. I’ve never seen a Mafia game where economics was really implemented in any way. Keep in mind, too, that we’re being attacked by killer robots, which has a tendency to draw peoples’ attention away from things like money: I would expect that if a storekeeper thought that giving things away might have a chance of saving his life and his village, he’d go for it.
Meanwhile, quoth peeker:
This actually understates it a bit, since Tom actually has another post in between those two. He must have been pushing pretty close to the 60 second limit in that second post, which is pretty quick to come up with ideas. Plus, he says that “I came up with…”, rather than “I come up with…”, which seems to suggest that he was thinking about berynium thieves before Boozahol said his was stolen, which could mean that he (Tom) is the thief, or is in cahoots with them.
I’m also still a bit puzzled by his Leader vote earlier toDay, where he elects peeker, but then says a mere three minutes later that he considers Boozahol most confirmed. If Boozahol is most confirmed, then why not vote for him? He later says it was a spur-of-the-moment decision, but three minutes isn’t a very long time, and even at that, he could have changed his Leader-vote.
I’m still suspicious of Boozahol (especially since the timing thing peeker points out also casts a bit of suspicion on him, in addition to Tom), but I don’t think there’s any chance that Boozahol, as Leader, is going to get lynched toDay. So between the rapid timing, odd tense in his phrasing, and odd vote for Leader, I’ll
Vote Tom Scud
And of course there are more posts in the time that I take to write that. While instinct might be a good indicator for some folks, the problem with using it as the reason for a vote is that there’s no accountability to it: A Scum could use instinct to justify voting for whomever they wanted to, and there’s no real way to argue against it.
and it’s interesting that you say this because i also believe you have to play the way that suits you individually.
instinct is better - mostly agree.
detailed analysis of posts - kind of disagree. but i caveat this with the heretical notion that i don’t keep notes or any of this other wow kind of stuff. what i do is read the game like a book. what may have seemed innocuous a while back takes on more significance in light of current facts and situations.
picking apart words - strongly disagree. i love doing this. but then again, i am an asshole so i am always fucking with folks.
scum motivation - stongly agree. what would be the motivation to take a particular stance if in fact it runs counter to what i, as town, know.
it’s just kind of interesting is all. guess that’s why baskin robbins makes 31 flavors. not everyone likes chocolate, thank goodness.
@ Peeker Thanks for your response, what you say makes sense and gives me a little more to work with than basing votes off the raw facts alone. What you said earlier to Daphne about her style of play was also useful, I guess some of us are followers while others are trendsetters. My fear was not providing sufficient objective reasoning behind my vote to encourage others to follow - a single vote, while making a statement, won’t get someone lynched.
@ Daphne, thanks for your response too. You are brave to encourage me to go with my instinct when you are aware that I’m suspicious of You! That gives me some food for thought so I won’t follow your advice right now 
@ Chronos I read too much into this as well - and the mods warned us that color was just color… I must have confused Screamers with Needful Things based on Gryff’s tiara incident…
So, I’m off to find my individual voting style…
Chronos, did you miss the post where I objectively documented the fact that I’d already been thinking about berynium thieves on day 1, after jpei’s full role claim?
I’ve been thinking a bit more about the Tom Scud timing issue,
That is 53 words, plus formatting. It is not inconceivable to take a minute to type that, even with a quick check for speeling mistaks. Which leaves anywhere from a minute to just under two minutes where he could think up that post.
Not impossible. Not even too great a stretch. A little less than likely, but not suspiciously so.
Oh and I’m now just going to assume that peeker is going to vote for me regardless, now that he’s up to case #5 or so against me.