Ugh, Nova and Virginia just wiped out two of my elite eight. guess that’s what I get for doubting the Spartans. My big gamble is Wichita State over Kansas later today.
Right now I’m in dead-ass last place (not counting the person who didn’t make any picks at all). 
At least I didn’t pick Virginia or Iowa State to win the whole thing.
Heartbreaking night as a fan, pretty good one as a bracketist. Wichita State gave me a much needed shot in the arm and it looks like almost everyone else picked Notre Dame in the next round, so Come On You Shockers!! Looks like almost everybody picked all the other Sweet 16 games the same way.
I was up inside the 90th percentile until the last two games of the night after an awful start on Thursday afternoon. Northern Iowa was my Hail Mary… thanks a lot Louisville.
We have a competition at work. (entry fee is a donation to a local food bank)
I got 24 out of the first 32, but only 8 out of the sweet 16. three out of my top 8 were eliminated (all final 4 still alive)
My method is “pretty much random” - usually picking the favorite but throwing in an upset here and there. I picked the wrong ones…
Brian
Forgot to mention there are prizes for 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 20th, 32nd and 56th place
(right now I am tied for 44th)
32nd might still be possible, but 56th is more likely…
Brian
Due to a lack of time, and a lack of interest (thanks Mizzou!) I had no real handle at all on anything other than the top 3 or 4 teams. Somehow my Sweet Sixteen is largely intact. Lot of fun basketball this year though, more close games than I remember there being most years.
Looks like the most important Sweet 16 games for this group will be Notre Dame vs Wichita State, in which I have the Shockers and everyone else currently within 50 points of the lead has the Irish, and Duke-Utah, in which everyone has Duke except, let me see, who was that…oh yes, Utah fukyeah! The other 6 games the leaders will all win or lose together (or, in the case of Villanova and Virginia, have already lost). Some people currently in the bottom half could get a boost from a Louisville win, and some others will get a boost from either MSU or Oklahoma.
I submitted a bracket, then noticed we’re allowed to submit 3. So I made an alternate one that would stand out from the rest. Go Utes!
Fifteen years ago, I wrote a few scripts that would run a bracket pool. One of the features was that it would calculate every possible result from the Sweet 16 onward and give probabilities of each entry winning. I got bored and plugged the “Straight Dope” pool in. (You Bracketeers will just have to suffer.) Here’s what I got back:
These are all the results that, if one of them occur, will eliminate your bracket from consideration. More precisely, these are the results that never happen in all the brackets where you win. (There are other ways for your bracket to lose, but they involve combinations of results.) If your bracket isn’t listed, you’ve already been eliminated:
[spoiler]Best of the Best Sir:
- Wichita St. in the Final 4
- Wisconsin winning it all
- Arizona in the Finals
- Duke in the Final 4
- Utah winning it all
Bo Knows Basketball:
- Arizona in the Finals
- Duke winning it all
- Utah winning it all
- Gonzaga in the Final 4
Cats! Wildcats!:
- Kentucky in the Finals
- West Virginia in the Finals
- Wisconsin in the Final 4
- Duke in the Finals
- Utah in the Final 4
- Gonzaga in the Final 4
Knorf’s Unlikely:
- Kentucky in the Finals
- West Virginia in the Finals
- Wichita St. in the Finals
- Wisconsin in the Final 4
- Duke winning it all
- Utah in the Elite 8
- UCLA in the Final 4
- Gonzaga in the Final 4
Little_Pig_of_Straight_Dope 1:
- Kentucky in the Finals
- Arizona in the Finals
- Louisville in the Finals
- Duke winning it all
- Utah winning it all
Pete:
- West Virginia in the Finals
- Wisconsin in the Final 4
- Arizona in the Finals
- North Carolina St. in the Finals
- Duke winning it all
- Utah in the Elite 8
- UCLA in the Final 4
- Gonzaga in the Final 4
Peter, Ray, Egon, Winston:
- Kentucky winning it all
- West Virginia in the Final 4
- Wisconsin in the Finals
- Arizona in the Final 4
- North Carolina St. in the Final 4
- Louisville in the Final 4
- Michigan St. in the Elite 8
- Duke in the Final 4
- Utah in the Final 4
- Gonzaga in the Elite 8
Repurposed Upshot Bracket:
- Kentucky in the Finals
- West Virginia in the Finals
- Notre Dame in the Finals
- Wichita St. in the Finals
- Wisconsin in the Final 4
- North Carolina in the Final 4
- Xavier in the Elite 8
- Duke in the Elite 8
- Utah winning it all
- UCLA in the Final 4
- Gonzaga in the Final 4
Retrovertigo:
- Kentucky winning it all
- West Virginia in the Finals
- Notre Dame winning it all
- Wisconsin winning it all
- Arizona winning it all
- Utah in the Elite 8
- UCLA in the Final 4
- Gonzaga in the Final 4
Rhodes:
- West Virginia in the Elite 8
- Notre Dame in the Final 4
- Wichita St. in the Final 4
- Wisconsin in the Final 4
- North Carolina in the Finals
- Xavier in the Finals
- Arizona in the Finals
- Duke in the Finals
- Utah in the Elite 8
- UCLA in the Final 4
- Gonzaga in the Final 4
Shoeless:
- Kentucky in the Finals
- West Virginia in the Finals
- Notre Dame in the Final 4
- Wichita St. in the Finals
- Wisconsin winning it all
- North Carolina in the Elite 8
- Xavier in the Final 4
- Arizona in the Final 4
- Louisville in the Finals
- Oklahoma in the Finals
- Duke in the Finals
- Utah in the Finals
Thing Fish:
- Kentucky in the Finals
- Notre Dame in the Finals
- Wisconsin winning it all
- Duke in the Final 4
- Utah in the Final 4
Thing Fish boring:
- West Virginia in the Final 4
- Wisconsin winning it all
- Arizona in the Final 4
- Duke winning it all
- Utah winning it all
- UCLA in the Final 4
- Gonzaga in the Final 4
Thing Fish random:
- Kentucky in the Finals
- Wisconsin winning it all
- Arizona winning it all
- Utah winning it all
This is Sharpie:
- West Virginia in the Final 4
- Wisconsin winning it all
- North Carolina in the Elite 8
- Xavier in the Final 4
- Arizona in the Final 4
- Duke in the Finals
- Utah winning it all
- UCLA in the Final 4
- Gonzaga in the Final 4
Utah Fukyeah!:
- Kentucky winning it all
- Wisconsin winning it all
- Arizona winning it all
- Duke in the Elite 8
- Gonzaga in the Final 4
p des:
- Kentucky in the Finals
- West Virginia in the Finals
- Notre Dame in the Finals
- Wichita St. in the Elite 8
- Wisconsin in the Final 4
- North Carolina in the Final 4
- Xavier in the Elite 8
- Arizona winning it all
- Duke in the Final 4
- Utah in the Final 4
- UCLA in the Elite 8
russianheel 2:
- Kentucky winning it all
- Arizona winning it all
- Duke winning it all
- Utah winning it all
[/spoiler]
Of the 32,768 ways the last 15 games can play out, here’s how many times each bracket would win or tie:
Winner(s) Ways to win Percent
----------------------- ----------- -------
russianheel 2 5779 17.636
Utah Fukyeah! 5367 16.379
Thing Fish random 3672 11.206
Best of the Best Sir 3482 10.626
Thing Fish 3351 10.226
Little_Pig_of_Straight_Dope 1 2348 7.166
Bo Knows Basketball 1562 4.767
Cats! Wildcats! 1500 4.578
Retrovertigo 1300 3.967
Repurposed Upshot Bracket 752 2.295
Bo Knows Basketball, Thing Fish 632 1.929
Thing Fish boring 332 1.013
Best of the Best Sir, russianheel 2 324 0.989
Knorf's Unlikely 306 0.934
Rhodes 264 0.806
p des 236 0.720
Retrovertigo, Thing Fish random 180 0.549
Thing Fish, Thing Fish random 156 0.476
Thing Fish boring, This is Sharpie 142 0.433
Peter, Ray, Egon, Winston 128 0.391
Cats! Wildcats!, Knorf's Unlikely 128 0.391
Pete 122 0.372
Shoeless 102 0.311
Bo Knows Basketball, Retrovertigo 88 0.269
Little_Pig_of_Straight_Dope 1, Utah Fukyeah! 84 0.256
Bo Knows Basketball, Thing Fish random 74 0.226
Bo Knows Basketball, Pete 72 0.220
Pete, Retrovertigo 68 0.208
Bo Knows Basketball, Pete, Retrovertigo 56 0.171
Cats! Wildcats!, Little_Pig_of_Straight_Dope 1 56 0.171
Best of the Best Sir, Peter, Ray, Egon, Winston 34 0.104
Peter, Ray, Egon, Winston, russianheel 2 24 0.073
Bo Knows Basketball, Shoeless 16 0.049
Pete, Thing Fish random 14 0.043
Shoeless, Thing Fish 7 0.021
Bo Knows Basketball, Retrovertigo, Thing Fish random 5 0.015
Bo Knows Basketball, Pete, Retrovertigo, Thing Fish random 3 0.009
Bo Knows Basketball, Pete, Thing Fish random 2 0.006
This is Sharpie 0 0.000
Labdad55 1 0 0.000
Frosty's Phantastic Picks 0 0.000
LabDad55 2 0 0.000
Final 0 0.000
Final (reversals) 0 0.000
MinLokWat 2 0 0.000
divemaster 3 0 0.000
Fleetwood 0 0.000
Here are the theoretical probabilities of those results happening, based on Ken Pomeroy’s log5 predictions.
Or so I hope – I wrote this in a couple of late night hours, so there might be some subtle bugs (as opposed to the stupid bugs and the stupid programming language where “Kentucky” == “West Virginia”).
Pomeroy Odds
------------
Best of the Best Sir 0.28356725
Thing Fish 0.10906035
russianheel 2 0.10626275
Retrovertigo 0.07625352
Utah Fukyeah! 0.07295326
Repurposed Upshot Bracket 0.05423925
Knorf's Unlikely 0.04359623
Pete 0.04256177
Bo Knows Basketball 0.03822882
Cats! Wildcats! 0.03366144
Rhodes 0.03023921
Little_Pig_of_Straight_Dope 1 0.02759186
Thing Fish boring 0.02734263
Thing Fish boring, This is Sharpie 0.01984956
p des 0.01499626
Thing Fish random 0.00558232
Bo Knows Basketball, Pete 0.00430497
Cats! Wildcats!, Knorf's Unlikely 0.00343217
Pete, Retrovertigo 0.00201756
Best of the Best Sir, russianheel 2 0.00182662
Retrovertigo, Thing Fish random 0.00116102
Shoeless 0.00039393
Bo Knows Basketball, Pete, Retrovertigo 0.00026922
Cats! Wildcats!, Little_Pig_of_Straight_Dope 1 0.00024568
Little_Pig_of_Straight_Dope 1, Utah Fukyeah! 0.00017936
Shoeless, Thing Fish 0.00016388
Bo Knows Basketball, Thing Fish 0.00014806
Bo Knows Basketball, Retrovertigo 0.00014144
Peter, Ray, Egon, Winston 0.00013124
Thing Fish, Thing Fish random 0.00012978
Bo Knows Basketball, Shoeless 0.00008251
Best of the Best Sir, Peter, Ray, Egon, Winston 0.00005510
Pete, Thing Fish random 0.00004608
Bo Knows Basketball, Thing Fish random 0.00003912
Bo Knows Basketball, Pete, Retrovertigo, Thing Fish random 0.00000348
Peter, Ray, Egon, Winston, russianheel 2 0.00000347
Bo Knows Basketball, Retrovertigo, Thing Fish random 0.00000216
Bo Knows Basketball, Pete, Thing Fish random 0.00000198
LabDad55 2 0.00000000
Fleetwood 0.00000000
MinLokWat 2 0.00000000
Labdad55 1 0.00000000
Frosty's Phantastic Picks 0.00000000
This is Sharpie 0.00000000
divemaster 3 0.00000000
Final 0.00000000
Final (reversals) 0.00000000
Assuming each bracket has the same chance of winning a tiebreaker, here’s the likelihood of each bracket being the final winner:
Winner Winning Shares Percent
------ -------------- -------
russianheel 2 5953.000 18.167
Utah Fukyeah! 5409.000 16.507
Thing Fish random 3887.083 11.862
Thing Fish 3748.500 11.440
Best of the Best Sir 3661.000 11.172
Little_Pig_of_Straight_Dope 1 2418.000 7.379
Bo Knows Basketball 2024.750 6.179
Cats! Wildcats! 1592.000 4.858
Retrovertigo 1489.083 4.544
Repurposed Upshot Bracket 752.000 2.295
Thing Fish boring 403.000 1.230
Knorf's Unlikely 370.000 1.129
Rhodes 264.000 0.806
p des 236.000 0.720
Pete 219.083 0.669
Peter, Ray, Egon, Winston 157.000 0.479
Shoeless 113.500 0.346
This is Sharpie 71.000 0.217
Fleetwood 0.000 0.000
Final 0.000 0.000
divemaster 3 0.000 0.000
LabDad55 2 0.000 0.000
MinLokWat 2 0.000 0.000
Frosty's Phantastic Picks 0.000 0.000
Labdad55 1 0.000 0.000
Final (reversals) 0.000 0.000
Finally, here’s a summary of all our predictions. Teams with a “-” by their name have been eliminated; teams with an “*” have actually made it that far:
-------- Final 1 ----------
13x 1 Kentucky
4x 2 Arizona
2x 1 Duke
1 Wisconsin
1x 1 -Villanova
2 -Kansas
2 -Virginia
3 -Iowa St.
5 Utah
-------- Final 2 ----------
16x 1 Kentucky
7x 1 Duke
2 -Virginia
6x 1 -Villanova
5x 2 Arizona
3x 1 Wisconsin
2x 3 -Iowa St.
1x 2 -Kansas
3 Oklahoma
4 Louisville
5 Utah
5 West Virginia
6 -SMU
-------- Final 4 ----------
22x 1 Kentucky
16x 2 Arizona
11x 1 Duke
1 -Villanova
9x 2 -Virginia
7x 1 Wisconsin
2 Gonzaga
5x 3 -Iowa St.
3x 3 Oklahoma
2x 3 -Baylor
5 Utah
1x 2 -Kansas
3 Notre Dame
4 Louisville
5 -Arkansas
5 -Northern Iowa
5 West Virginia
6 -Butler
6 -Providence
6 -SMU
-------- Final 8 ----------
24x 1 Kentucky
1 Wisconsin
22x 2 Arizona
20x 1 Duke
19x 2 -Virginia
18x 1 -Villanova
14x 2 Gonzaga
11x 3 -Iowa St.
3 Notre Dame
8x 2 -Kansas
6x 4 Louisville
5x 7 Wichita St.
4x 3 -Baylor
3 Oklahoma
3x 5 Utah
2x 4 -Georgetown
5 -Arkansas
5 -Northern Iowa
5 West Virginia
7 Michigan St.
1x 6 -Butler
6 -Providence
6 -SMU
8 -San Diego St.
11 -Texas
-------- Final 16 ----------
26x 1 *Kentucky
1 *Wisconsin
2 *Arizona
25x 1 -Villanova
24x 1 *Duke
2 -Virginia
23x 3 -Baylor
3 -Iowa St.
22x 2 *Gonzaga
21x 3 *Notre Dame
20x 3 *Oklahoma
19x 4 *North Carolina
15x 2 -Kansas
14x 4 *Louisville
5 *Utah
12x 5 -Northern Iowa
5 *West Virginia
11x 4 -Georgetown
10x 4 -Maryland
7 *Wichita St.
6x 6 -Providence
5x 5 -Arkansas
3x 6 -SMU
6 *Xavier
7 -Iowa
11 -Texas
12 -Buffalo
2x 6 -Butler
7 *Michigan St.
8 -San Diego St.
1x 9 -LSU
10 -Davidson
10 -Indiana
12 -Stephen F. Austin
12 -Wofford
13 -Harvard
13 -Valparaiso
-------- Final 32 ----------
26x 1 *Duke
1 *Kentucky
1 *Villanova
1 *Wisconsin
2 *Arizona
2 *Gonzaga
2 *Virginia
3 -Baylor
3 -Iowa St.
3 *Oklahoma
25x 2 *Kansas
3 *Notre Dame
4 *Louisville
4 *North Carolina
24x 4 *Georgetown
7 *Michigan St.
23x 5 *Utah
22x 5 *Arkansas
7 *Wichita St.
21x 5 *Northern Iowa
6 -SMU
20x 4 *Maryland
5 *West Virginia
6 *Xavier
7 *Iowa
8 *San Diego St.
17x 8 *North Carolina St.
16x 6 -Providence
9 -Oklahoma St.
10 *Ohio St.
15x 6 *Butler
13x 8 *Cincinnati
9 -Purdue
11x 11 -Texas
10x 7 -VCU
8 *Oregon
11 *Dayton
9x 9 -LSU
6x 9 -St. John's
10 -Davidson
11 -Mississippi
12 -Buffalo
13 -Valparaiso
5x 11 *UCLA
12 -Wyoming
4x 10 -Indiana
12 -Wofford
3x 12 -Stephen F. Austin
2x 10 -Georgia
13 -Eastern Washington
1x 13 -Harvard
13 -UC Irvine
14 -Northeastern
15 -New Mexico St.
Great analysis Kimble. Sounds about right, actually, based on my historical accuracy. I’ve got a bracket currently in the lead at the Sweet 16 and a ridiculously high chance of blowing it. Familiar territory indeed.
I think Kentucky is gonna be hard for anyone but themselves to beat (those slow starts could be a killer someday). But most of the other teams all have pretty good arguments for being there as well.
Wow! thanks Kimble, that is very interesting!
I was shocked to see that my “random” bracket (not really completely random but based on playing through a simulation using weighted probabilities of each team winning each game), which is now languishing in next to last place, has the third-best chance of winning, just ahead of the bracket I actually thought through! The bracket which had Harvard in the Sweet Sixteen, Baylor in the Final Four, and West Virginia in the final??
But when I think about it, it makes sense; you give that bracket about a 12% chance of winning, which is just about equal to the chance Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com gives West Virginia of beating Kentucky. If that does happen, that bracket will look genius, since everyone else had UK at least in the elite 8, and most had them going to the final. Well, Go Mountaineers!
That’s just a coincidence and a result of poor late-night editing on my part. Even though I stuck the KenPom-adjusted results before it in my post, the report in my fourth spoiler (“Assuming each bracket has the same chance of winning a tiebreaker, here’s the likelihood of each bracket being the final winner:”) that you’re quoting still treats every game as a 50-50 tossup. It just gives you half-credit for being in a 2-way tie for first, one-third-credit for a 3-way tie, etc. My bad. 
Thing Fish random’s Pomeroy-approved probability of winning is more like 0.63%. Lines from the Pomeroy report:
Thing Fish random 0.00558232 / 1
Retrovertigo, Thing Fish random 0.00116102 / 2
Thing Fish, Thing Fish random 0.00012978 / 2
Pete, Thing Fish random 0.00004608 / 2
Bo Knows Basketball, Thing Fish random 0.00003912 / 2
Bo Knows Basketball, Pete, Retrovertigo, Thing Fish random 0.00000348 / 4
Bo Knows Basketball, Retrovertigo, Thing Fish random 0.00000216 / 3
Bo Knows Basketball, Pete, Thing Fish random 0.00000198 / 3
--------------
0.00627257 total
I might spam more results tonight if I decide to enter in the Bracketeers’ brackets instead of playing Dragon Age.
I assume that Thing Fish random’s chances of winning are now much, much smaller than they were a couple hours ago. Still, that is pretty awesome software, kimble. Have you thought about monetizing that?
I appreciate the compliment, but the software’s not even in a state where I could toss it onto GitHub without sullying my (non-existent) reputation as a programmer. All the data entry – both entries and game results – is done in Excel. I then use a tiny bit of VBA to turn it into a format that can be copied and pasted into a couple of text files. Those files that can be read by a handful of Perl scripts that have to be edited after each round. Finally, I reformat the outputs to make it look semi-presentable here.
Speaking of which, here’s the Elite Eight update:
Pomeroy Probabilities Percent
--------------------- -------
Best of the Best Sir 26.539
russianheel 2 13.936
Retrovertigo 12.605
Thing Fish boring 9.279
Pete 9.265
Thing Fish 7.741
Knorf's Unlikely 6.290
Rhodes 5.150
Cats! Wildcats! 3.959
p des 2.996
This is Sharpie 2.159
FiveThirtyEight Probabilities Percent
----------------------------- -------
Best of the Best Sir 26.390
Pete 13.144
Retrovertigo 12.720
Thing Fish boring 11.994
russianheel 2 11.032
Rhodes 9.169
Knorf's Unlikely 3.847
Thing Fish 3.729
This is Sharpie 3.301
Cats! Wildcats! 3.298
p des 1.368
Results that will kill your brackets dead:[spoiler]Best of the Best Sir:
- Wisconsin in the Finals
- Arizona in the Finals
- Duke in the Final 4
Cats! Wildcats!:
- Kentucky in the Finals
- Wisconsin in the Final 4
- Duke in the Finals
- Gonzaga in the Final 4
Knorf’s Unlikely:
- Kentucky in the Finals
- Notre Dame in the Finals
- Wisconsin in the Final 4
- Louisville in the Finals
- Michigan St. in the Finals
- Duke winning it all
- Gonzaga in the Final 4
Pete:
- Wisconsin in the Final 4
- Arizona in the Finals
- Louisville in the Finals
- Michigan St. in the Finals
- Duke winning it all
- Gonzaga in the Final 4
Retrovertigo:
- Kentucky winning it all
- Notre Dame winning it all
- Wisconsin winning it all
- Arizona winning it all
- Louisville in the Finals
- Michigan St. in the Finals
- Gonzaga in the Final 4
Rhodes:
- Notre Dame in the Final 4
- Wisconsin in the Final 4
- Arizona in the Finals
- Duke in the Finals
- Gonzaga in the Final 4
Thing Fish:
- Kentucky in the Finals
- Notre Dame in the Finals
- Wisconsin in the Final 4
- Louisville winning it all
- Michigan St. winning it all
- Duke in the Final 4
- Gonzaga winning it all
Thing Fish boring:
- Wisconsin winning it all
- Arizona in the Final 4
- Duke winning it all
- Gonzaga in the Final 4
This is Sharpie:
- Wisconsin winning it all
- Arizona in the Final 4
- Duke in the Finals
- Gonzaga in the Final 4
p des:
- Kentucky in the Finals
- Notre Dame in the Finals
- Wisconsin in the Final 4
- Arizona winning it all
- Duke in the Final 4
russianheel 2:
- Kentucky in the Finals
- Arizona winning it all
- Duke winning it all[/spoiler]
The 128 possible results for the Elite Eight, and who wins them:[spoiler]
Winning Possibilities Total Percent
--------------------- ----- -------
russianheel 2 42 32.813
Best of the Best Sir 22 17.188
Retrovertigo 16 12.500
Cats! Wildcats! 10 7.813
Thing Fish 8 6.250
Thing Fish boring, This is Sharpie 7 5.469
p des 7 5.469
Rhodes 4 3.125
Thing Fish boring 4 3.125
Knorf's Unlikely 4 3.125
Pete 4 3.125
Results Pom Prob 538 Prob Winner(s)
--------- ---------- ---------- ----------------------------------
KWLD KL K = 0.01563733 0.01885486 Thing Fish boring, This is Sharpie
KWLG KL K = 0.01351212 0.01307547 Best of the Best Sir
KWMD KM K = 0.01612630 0.02952505 Thing Fish boring, This is Sharpie
KWMG KM K = 0.01393464 0.02047504 Best of the Best Sir
KALD KL K = 0.02034832 0.02850726 Rhodes
KALG KL K = 0.01758286 0.01976922 Best of the Best Sir
KAMD KM K = 0.02098460 0.04463986 Rhodes
KAMG KM K = 0.01813267 0.03095685 Best of the Best Sir
NWLD NL N = 0.00086460 0.00080504 russianheel 2
NWLG NL N = 0.00074710 0.00055828 russianheel 2
NWMD NM N = 0.00089164 0.00126062 Thing Fish boring, This is Sharpie
NWMG NM N = 0.00077046 0.00087421 russianheel 2
NALD NL N = 0.00112507 0.00121716 russianheel 2
NALG NL N = 0.00097217 0.00084408 russianheel 2
NAMD NM N = 0.00116025 0.00190597 Cats! Wildcats!
NAMG NM N = 0.00100257 0.00132175 Best of the Best Sir
KWLD KD K = 0.03342048 0.03478446 Thing Fish boring
KWLG KG K = 0.02753284 0.01971593 Best of the Best Sir
KWMD KD K = 0.03404800 0.04859153 Thing Fish boring
KWMG KG K = 0.02804981 0.02754181 Best of the Best Sir
KALD KD K = 0.04348893 0.05259173 Pete
KALG KG K = 0.03582754 0.02980913 Best of the Best Sir
KAMD KD K = 0.04430550 0.07346707 Pete
KAMG KG K = 0.03650026 0.04164133 Best of the Best Sir
NWLD ND N = 0.00184784 0.00148518 Thing Fish boring
NWLG NG N = 0.00152231 0.00084180 russianheel 2
NWMD ND N = 0.00188254 0.00207469 Thing Fish boring
NWMG NG N = 0.00155090 0.00117594 russianheel 2
NALD ND N = 0.00240454 0.00224549 Pete
NALG NG N = 0.00198093 0.00127275 Best of the Best Sir
NAMD ND N = 0.00244968 0.00313680 Pete
NAMG NG N = 0.00201813 0.00177794 Best of the Best Sir
KWLD WL W = 0.00730147 0.00671472 russianheel 2
KWLG WL W = 0.00630916 0.00465652 russianheel 2
KWMD WM W = 0.00752978 0.01051466 russianheel 2
KWMG WM W = 0.00650644 0.00729171 russianheel 2
KALD AL A = 0.01198118 0.00756273 Cats! Wildcats!
KALG AL A = 0.01035286 0.00524460 Thing Fish
KAMD AM A = 0.01235582 0.01184257 Cats! Wildcats!
KAMG AM A = 0.01067659 0.00821259 Thing Fish
NWLD WL W = 0.00158345 0.00101045 russianheel 2
NWLG WL W = 0.00136825 0.00070073 russianheel 2
NWMD WM W = 0.00163297 0.00158228 russianheel 2
NWMG WM W = 0.00141104 0.00109728 russianheel 2
NALD AL A = 0.00259833 0.00113806 Cats! Wildcats!
NALG AL A = 0.00224520 0.00078922 Thing Fish
NAMD AM A = 0.00267958 0.00178211 Cats! Wildcats!
NAMG AM A = 0.00231541 0.00123586 Thing Fish
KWLD WD W = 0.01560488 0.01238767 russianheel 2
KWLG WG W = 0.01285579 0.00702137 russianheel 2
KWMD WD W = 0.01589789 0.01730474 russianheel 2
KWMG WG W = 0.01309718 0.00980837 russianheel 2
KALD AD A = 0.02560646 0.01395213 Knorf's Unlikely
KALG AG A = 0.02109541 0.00790811 Thing Fish
KAMD AD A = 0.02608726 0.01949018 Knorf's Unlikely
KAMG AG A = 0.02149151 0.01104709 Thing Fish
NWLD WD W = 0.00338419 0.00186414 russianheel 2
NWLG WG W = 0.00278800 0.00105660 russianheel 2
NWMD WD W = 0.00344773 0.00260407 russianheel 2
NWMG WG W = 0.00284035 0.00147600 russianheel 2
NALD AD A = 0.00555321 0.00209956 Knorf's Unlikely
NALG AG A = 0.00457491 0.00119004 Thing Fish
NAMD AD A = 0.00565748 0.00293294 Knorf's Unlikely
NAMG AG A = 0.00466081 0.00166240 Thing Fish
KWLD KL L = 0.00381909 0.00436889 Thing Fish boring, This is Sharpie
KWLG KL L = 0.00330005 0.00302974 Best of the Best Sir
KWMD KM M = 0.00399382 0.00789466 Thing Fish boring, This is Sharpie
KWMG KM M = 0.00345103 0.00547479 Best of the Best Sir
KALD KL L = 0.00496965 0.00660546 Rhodes
KALG KL L = 0.00429424 0.00458076 Best of the Best Sir
KAMD KM M = 0.00519702 0.01193619 Rhodes
KAMG KM M = 0.00449071 0.00827751 Best of the Best Sir
NWLD NL L = 0.00036800 0.00031824 russianheel 2
NWLG NL L = 0.00031799 0.00022069 russianheel 2
NWMD NM M = 0.00038484 0.00057506 Thing Fish boring, This is Sharpie
NWMG NM M = 0.00033254 0.00039879 russianheel 2
NALD NL L = 0.00047887 0.00048115 russianheel 2
NALG NL L = 0.00041379 0.00033367 russianheel 2
NAMD NM M = 0.00050078 0.00086945 Cats! Wildcats!
NAMG NM M = 0.00043272 0.00060295 Best of the Best Sir
KWLD KD D = 0.01453224 0.01377646 Retrovertigo
KWLG KG G = 0.01089054 0.00550192 Best of the Best Sir
KWMD KD D = 0.01480511 0.01924478 Retrovertigo
KWMG KG G = 0.01109503 0.00768581 Best of the Best Sir
KALD KD D = 0.01891031 0.02082907 Retrovertigo
KALG KG G = 0.01417149 0.00831853 Best of the Best Sir
KAMD KD D = 0.01926538 0.02909680 Retrovertigo
KAMG KG G = 0.01443758 0.01162042 Best of the Best Sir
NWLD ND D = 0.00140031 0.00100350 Retrovertigo
NWLG NG G = 0.00104940 0.00040077 russianheel 2
NWMD ND D = 0.00142660 0.00140182 Retrovertigo
NWMG NG G = 0.00106910 0.00055985 russianheel 2
NALD ND D = 0.00182217 0.00151722 Retrovertigo
NALG NG G = 0.00136554 0.00060593 Best of the Best Sir
NAMD ND D = 0.00185638 0.00211946 Retrovertigo
NAMG NG G = 0.00139118 0.00084645 Best of the Best Sir
KWLD WL L = 0.00222540 0.00195430 russianheel 2
KWLG WL L = 0.00192295 0.00135527 russianheel 2
KWMD WM M = 0.00232721 0.00353145 Thing Fish boring, This is Sharpie
KWMG WM M = 0.00201093 0.00244899 russianheel 2
KALD AL L = 0.00334079 0.00243995 Cats! Wildcats!
KALG AL L = 0.00288676 0.00169206 p des
KAMD AM M = 0.00349364 0.00440903 Cats! Wildcats!
KAMG AM M = 0.00301883 0.00305757 p des
NWLD WL L = 0.00048262 0.00029409 russianheel 2
NWLG WL L = 0.00041703 0.00020394 russianheel 2
NWMD WM M = 0.00050470 0.00053142 russianheel 2
NWMG WM M = 0.00043611 0.00036853 russianheel 2
NALD AL L = 0.00072451 0.00036717 Cats! Wildcats!
NALG AL L = 0.00062604 0.00025463 russianheel 2
NAMD AM M = 0.00075766 0.00066348 Cats! Wildcats!
NAMG AM M = 0.00065469 0.00046011 p des
KWLD WD D = 0.00846800 0.00616251 Retrovertigo
KWLG WG G = 0.00634596 0.00246113 russianheel 2
KWMD WD D = 0.00862700 0.00860861 Retrovertigo
KWMG WG G = 0.00646512 0.00343803 russianheel 2
KALD AD D = 0.01271226 0.00769391 Retrovertigo
KALG AG G = 0.00952663 0.00307273 p des
KAMD AD D = 0.01295095 0.01074787 Retrovertigo
KAMG AG G = 0.00970551 0.00429239 p des
NWLD WD D = 0.00183643 0.00092735 Retrovertigo
NWLG WG G = 0.00137623 0.00037036 russianheel 2
NWMD WD D = 0.00187091 0.00129545 Retrovertigo
NWMG WG G = 0.00140207 0.00051737 russianheel 2
NALD AD D = 0.00275688 0.00115780 Retrovertigo
NALG AG G = 0.00206602 0.00046239 p des
NAMD AD D = 0.00280864 0.00161737 Retrovertigo
NAMG AG G = 0.00210481 0.00064593 p des
It’s awfully convenient for each of the 8 teams left to have a unique initial.[/spoiler]
So the fucking Cheeseheads have broken my bracket already. BAAASSSTIDDS!!!
But wait! There’s still hope from Thing Fish boring! Especially if you think Silver et al. are more accurate than Pomeroy! (Meanwhile, I’m the second person to have a possible points remaining of zero. Yay me!)
Pomeroy Probabilities Percent
--------------------- -------
Best of the Best Sir 30.066
russianheel 2 27.196
Thing Fish boring 24.389
Retrovertigo 12.547
This is Sharpie 5.754
FiveThirtyEight Probabilities Percent
----------------------------- -------
Thing Fish boring 30.181
Best of the Best Sir 26.885
russianheel 2 23.118
Retrovertigo 12.720
This is Sharpie 8.418
WINNING results for each bracket:
russianheel 2: (13 possibilities)
- Wisconsin beats Kentucky AND EITHER:
- Wisconsin wins it all OR Louisville wins it all OR Gonzaga beats Duke
Best of the Best Sir: (8 possibilities)
- Gonzaga beats Duke AND Kentucky beats Wisconsin
Retrovertigo: (4 possibilities)
- Duke wins it all
Thing Fish boring: (2 possibilities)
- Kentucky beats Duke in the finals
Thing Fish boring, This is Sharpie tie: (5 possibilities)
- Duke loses in the semifinals (implying Duke beats Gonzaga) AND EITHER:
- Kentucky beats Wisconsin OR Michigan St. wins it all
Best of the Best is still alive. I did not expect Notre Dame to be the team making me sweat this late in the game.
Well, I wouldn’t be able to take too much credit for that…Thing Fish boring is just picking the favorites in every game.