SDMB Fantasy Football DYNASTY League: Year 12

The Game Room
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It’s time for the annual embarrassment that is my team reviews! Want to see who will pull an Ellis Dee and win it all after being ranked 12th? Eager to read 8,000 words about how awesome my team is? Look no further!

As a reminder, these are generated based on projections for the upcoming season, with the exception of the Youth score. The Youth score is determined by projecting a team’s current starting lineups five years out, based on current performance and age-related decline. This isn’t an exact science, obviously, but it gives a good idea of which teams should consider making big changes or starting rebuilding projects.

12. The Great Old Ones - Ol’Gaffer - 67.2
(2019: 75.6, 4th; 2018: 77.7, 1st)
Once a rocket of a team, they have now lost propulsion and cratered

QB strength: 7th
Stafford was unreal before he got hurt last season, so if this team outperforms, it will be because Stafford carried them. There was a time Stafford was considered hopelessly injury-prone (Hello, Carson Wentz). Prior to last season, he hadn’t missed a game for eight seasons, so of course when he finally once again reaches the stratosphere, he gets hurt. There’s no reason he can’t get right back on that pace this season. On the other hand, Cam Newton is the ultimate wild card and an ideal lottery ticket backup. He probably doesn’t have the weapons to matter this year, and who knows where he will be next season, but the upside is elite. This unit is fine.

WR Strength: 12th
In order to compete in these rankings, and in the league, you probably need a top-third WR unit or RB unit, at least. And it is unlikely a team can make the playoffs if one of those two groups is a scum sucking bottom feeder. Almost every other team in this league can start a top 12 WR and a top 24 WR by ADP. Other than Beckham, who was a Least Valuable Player candidate last season, there is very little to work with here. Having to find 2-3 starters among Robby Anderson, Emmanuel Sanders, N’Keal Harry, Parris Campbell, and a rookie with little technical prowess is a hard ask. It would be fortunate if any of them finished in the top 36 WRs.

RB Strength: 12th
Derrius Guice getting arrested really crippled this team. Perhaps no team was more desperate for an RB in the draft, but being outside the top 5 made it unlikely to grab one. Luckily, some idiot took a WR, and salvation sailed in on a boat named D’Andre Swift. He was a favorite in March as the top overall RB, so to get him at 6 could save this franchise. However, for this season Swift doesn’t figure to return even RB2 value, which makes 2020 almost certainly a non-starter. On the strength of WR and RB, it is all but guaranteed that this team will have the first overall pick in 2021. Congratulations on your championship, somehow.

TE Strength: 5th
Ertz is a stud, and as consistent as they come. The end of the ride might be coming up quick, however, because the Eagles’ cap situation looks dire, and his production has dipped from 2018’s high water mark, despite having less target competition. The team is still set here. Or… Ertz might see less volume again now that Philly has actual receivers healthy. Or, maybe he down the road he is forced to move on to another team. It is unlikely any other team could utilize him the way Pederson and Wentz have. Greg Olsen is a good reserve, but he’s a good bet to retire after this season, if he survives it.

Youth: 12th
I would feel okay with finishing last if I had a solid, young core that had future potential. Finishing last AND having the worst future potential scoring? I would burn it all down. Literal fire sale. As in, everything is priced to go because I just set it on fire. No refunds. This roster really calls for a complete rebuild like what Dale has done by acquiring multiple mid-tier startable players and multiple future picks.

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11. JB’s Gusterrhoids - Justin_Bailey - 71.5
(2019: 68.7, 11th; 2018: 68.1, 10th)
This perennially underrated team is like a knuckleball pitcher that is never expected to do much aside from eating innings, but can occasionally throw a shutout

QB strength: 4th
Justin’s 2019 draft will forever be one of the best in the history of the league. Kyler Murray at 5 was a bit of a reach at the time, but he’s quickly returned elite value. It will be surprising if Kyler isn’t an annual top-3 dynasty asset. Even more of a surprise is that this team might be forced to keep Old Man Brees on the bench. We’re nearing the end of an era.

WR Strength: 11th
A.J. Brown immediately seized top-12 dynasty value, and with his age, he should be the foundation of this franchise’s unit for years and years. I personally think his 2019 is unsustainable, as nobody seems to have noticed that a massive chunk of his fantasy output came from 4 or 5 fluke plays where he housed a short pass or run without being touched (~ 25-35% of his total fantasy points depending on what you consider a fluke). You could say that’s a factor of his athleticism, but it was clearly a breakdown in coverage or a lack of defensive discipline on tape. The safe bet is that he is a stud, but perhaps not yet an every-season top-12 guy.

Aside from Brown, there are startable assets here, but all of them are old and have significant questions. Can this team find 14-16 starts from 3 of Julian Edelman (old and without Brady), Larry Fitzgerald (old and now 3rd in target priority), Alshon Jeffery (old and already hurt and lacking a defined role), and DeSean Jackson (old and only 3 games last season)? Maybe MVS finally finds a role and becomes a worthy flex. Maybe Chase Claypool lives up to the hype as a rookie, despite being 6th in target priority. I don’t see it, and that’s what makes me think a repeat playoff run is unlikely.

RB Strength: 6th
Aaron Jones was incredible last season, and Miles Sanders looks to be a lock for a top-12 value for years based on his running and receiving prowess. However, Jones will almost certainly regress, and Sanders has some concerning tendencies on tape. Still, that is a solid and competitive duo. Unfortunately, there is absolutely nothing behind them here. It will be a major surprise if Devonta Freeman (currently unsigned), or Frank Gore (behind Le’Veon) can return top-36 value this season. I would have expected Justin to be more aggressive to find a viable flex, but at least he can rely on his WRs to fill his flex spots. Oh wait, they’re all old and unreliable. No team will need more flawless in-season management and luck to compete.

TE Strength: 8th
There is a nice blend of upside and production here. Hooper surprised, vacuuming in targets in a high-powered offense. He moved on, but still has potential. If Hooper was a product of his situation last season, having Hurst move into that vacated situation is very fortunate. This is a great duo that should outperform the rank.

Youth: 11th
This seems misleading to me based on Kyler, A.J., and Miles being outstanding young prospects. But the letdown is in the flex spots and how surprisingly old the WRs are. 11th in this spot might scream “REBUILD ALREADY” but Justin pretty much already did so, and did so deftly. If he keeps drafting as well as he has recently, he’ll be fine here, too.

10. Nine Inch Neils - Really Not All That Bright - 72.0
(2019: 73.9, 7th; 2018: 73.3, 5th)
This team is like a sprinter that led the pack from the gun but fell behind after a couple missteps and a tumble

QB strength: 12th
Every year there is a team that falls to the bottom of these rankings because they have one starter and nothing behind them. That’s the case here. Matt Ryan is just fine as a starter in this league, but only having Herbert as your reserve, who isn’t a starter at the moment, could be crippling. SenorBeef remembers how a single QB injury can derail a season.

WR Strength: 10th
This group was a long time advantage for the franchise, and the top-2 of Godwin and Hopkins is still among the best in the league. Going by my rankings and by dynasty ADP, it’s very close. But there isn’t enough depth on the back end, and this is because the once excellent depth was sold off to fill critical holes to maximize a championship window. Those moves were justified and reasonable at the time, but the bill has come due. If any of the top-3 guys get injured, there isn’t a single startable answer on the roster.

RB Strength: 8th
This was a solid, consistent, and deep group last season. Mark Ingram is as reliable as they come, and although he is a low-end RB1, that’s plenty good enough. Fournette is where this group will sink or swim, and that is a troubling proposition. If you buy the narrative that he’s never been on a team with a passing threat to open up the box, he has a chance to finally be more than an inefficient, volume-based stat vacuum. There’s enough depth here to find a couple flex guys in the event Fournette doesn’t work out, but none of them are guaranteed consistent work. One significant WR injury could end this team’s season, but even healthy this RB group might not be good enough.

TE Strength: 6th
This is definitely the deepest TE group in the league, but none have broken out for a full season. There’s a good mix of elite upside, but no guaranteed weekly start. Surely, one will emerge, so this isn’t a worry.

Youth: 10th
There’s a big concern looming here, but it might not need to be addressed immediately. Godwin is the only elite asset that still hasn’t entered his prime. Hopkins at 28 is on the top of his peak, but the decline is coming and he may only be elite for another couple years. This overall ranking represents the championship window closing, and the key question now is how long do you wait to break it down and rebuild.

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09. Overly Sentimental - Overly Sentimental - 73.5
(2019: 82.6, 3rd; 2018: 67.3, 11th)
This team is the wallet of a dejected gambler whose two big bets didn’t pay off and now rent is due.

QB strength: 6th
One of the interesting aspects of these rankings, to me, is getting a snapshot of value in a moment in time. Last season, Watson and Goff was an outstanding duo with youth and limitless upside. Watson is still incredible, but he just lost his biggest and most unguardable weapon. It seems like his coach and organization don’t have an idea how to maximize him.

Goff, after a down year, looks like a generic brand vanilla scoop of ice cream in a cup. He isn’t without upside (he had games of 395, 424, and 517 yards last season), but staggering downside for a top pick who is still young (also had games of 186, 173, and 78 yards). If you have to start Goof , he could single-handedly lose you the week. He’s the QB version of Amari Cooper. His situation hasn’t changed enough to expect we won’t see an exact replica of 2019 again this season.

WR Strength: 7th
Davante Adams is an elite dynasty asset, but he’s coming off a rare down season. That was injury related, sure, but there’s some concern that the offense is (d)evolving into a clone of Minnesota’s or Tennessee’s. DeVante Parker finally, FINALLY paid off (take watch, Corey Davis), and there’s no reason he can’t do it again. That can definitely work as a top-2, though many expect Parker to regress. Sammy Watkins is a decent enough flex, but if he misses games or gets replaced it comes down to Christian Kirk, who was wildly inefficient last season and got replaced himself.

It would be great if Antonio Brown was reinstated and signed to a team where he immediately became a WR1. That was this team’s first losing bet. Staring at a choice between Brown, Alvin Kamara, and Odell Beckham, Brown turned out to be the wrong one. No one could have predicted his Bald Britney meltdown, but it wasn’t the right choice even if he never froze his feet, lost his shit over a helmet, and started assaulting people.

RB Strength: 10th
Overly’s second big bet was seizing control of the Rams’ backfield. This was a worthy gamble, and it looked scary on paper at the time. Unfortunately, Gurley immediately broke down and can’t be relied on any longer for 16 games or RB1 output. Even so, this may have yet paid off, but the Rams drafted another RB who will likely take over the backfield by season’s end. If that happens, this team’s chances are down to Kerryon Johnson taking control of Detroit’s backfield (unlikely he stays healthy long enough to do it, even if he has the talent). Except, they also drafted a runner high and signed Adrian Peterson. Considering we can start 3 RBs, it seems impossible to me to compete without having even 2 every week starters at RB.

TE Strength: 2nd
No surprise here. If you have Kelce and a warm body, you get #1. If you have Kittle and a warm body, you get #2. I’m still mad I was forced to drop Kittle two years ago due to injuries, and I might never get over it.

Youth: 8th
There’s a really solid foundation here, despite the rating. QB is probably set. There’s a limited window at WR, but it’s set for 2-3 years. There’s just so much ground to make up at RB that the roster’s future potential suffers.

08. Exploding Pancakes - SenorBeef - 75.4
(2019: 73.4, 8th; 2018: 74.5, 4th)
A once perennial contender is still waiting for a green arrow to turn onto the road to the playoffs

QB strength: 5th
Aaron Rodgers is no longer a weekly starter by rote. He’s no longer a QB1 by dynasty value. A moment of silence, please.

Josh Allen is a really fascinating player. He is atrocious on the field, but fantastic on the fake scoreboard. The issue is, how much longer will he get a chance to play in the real NFL when he is so bad at throwing the ball? He is beyond the point where his accuracy can be improved upon. He isn’t missing guys by throwing just outside their shoulder pads or comfortable catch radius. He’s missing guys by 5-10 yards. He’s the #8 dynasty asset at QB, but I think he has two years as a starter left, unless something drastic changes. Enter: Stefon Diggs (more later). This is a crucial season for Allen’s career.

If neither of those options are good long term bets, I can’t imagine the answer is with Negative Regression Avatar Ryan Tannehill, or Leper Kisser Sam Darnold. Solid rating, scary reality.

WR Strength: 4th
I really like this group, which makes sense because 75% of the starters were once on my… you know what? We can’t go on without addressing something. Let’s all grab an adult beverage of our choice and pour one out for the death of JOSH GORDON.

Can you believe we’ve all survived long enough to see the cutting of JOSH GORDON?

If ever there was a sign that 2020 unlocked the final seal of Pandora’s Box and unleashed the apocalypse, it would be JOSH GORDON getting cut.

SenorBeef will never experience an erection again. RIP to that, too.

Allen Robinson is a stud, stowed away on a terrible offense with a drunk, Weekend at Bernie’s cosplayer at pilot. Tyler Lockett will probably come down to Earth from last season where he was 5th in passer rating when targeted, and (I believe) perfect in passer rating when targeted on deep passes. But he’s an upside second starter. Chark was a ridiculous surprise absolutely no one saw coming, but he could improve or regress with equal likelihood. Then again, any regression in efficiency would be made up in volume, I bet. I don’t trust Rivers to be able to take advantage of Hilton, but that’s a fine 4th option. It would only take an average T.Y. Hilton season for this group to outperform an already high ranking.

It’s all youth on the bench, but not without starting upside right away. Deebo and Reagor could each return flex results, and Steven Sims is a name many more people will know this time next season. Nobody is rostered here without purpose. It’s a boxer with a puncher’s chance. Once or twice a season, the stars will align and this starting group alone will nearly outscore some teams.

RB Strength: 7th
The worry that Chubb would lose touches to Kareem Hunt was spot on, and the impact was severe but not crippling. He’s still a low end RB1 even while hamstrung by Hunt. The reason this team will struggle is because there’s no solid option after Chubb. Montgomery was a mess last season, but he could turn it around. Jordan Howard doesn’t have a job to call his very own, and the guy behind him is just much more dynamic. Beef’s top pick J.K. Dobbins might be two years away from being a weekly starter. Investing a 2nd in an RB just to have them sit sounds unreasonable, but it happens more often than you may think. Derrick Henry and Rashaad Penny are two recent examples, among several recent ones. Ryquell Armstead is a JAG on the Jags with little value even if he doesn’t get Wally Pipp’d.

TE Strength: 10th
I remember being so smitten with Evan Engram when he entered the league. His athleticism and upside were limitless. As he played, it became apparent that he has iffy hands and couldn’t carry a heavy load. Injuries have hampered him, and he finally got his first 20 point fantasy game in his 27th start. For some reason, his upside doesn’t consistently translate to the box score.

Dawson Knox has a ton of upside himself, but he might not be in the right spot for his skills. This group could vastly outperform this ranking based on upside, and the safe bet is that it will.

Youth: 4th
Aside from Hilton, the starters are all still on the young side and ascending. Where there is some age creeping in, there are young, reserves at the ready. At no position is the pantry bare. This roster might not be ready to challenge for the playoffs this year, but it’s close. Once it’s there, it will be there for a while.

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07. Warner’s Brothers - dalej42 - 76.0
(2019: 63.8, 7th; 2018: 70.5, 12th)
The rebuild has worked, but when will it be complete?

QB strength: 1st
Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott is an embarrassment of riches. Wilson has consistently been at the top of dynasty rankings, and he almost always returns top-3 finishes. Imagine if he was unleashed and allowed to throw as much as other teams, especially now that he has upper-level deep threats on the outside? I would think one of these guys would have been moved, but it’s hard to find a buyer in a 1QB league.

WR Strength: 5th
Amari Cooper was once a top-end dynasty asset, but his sterling value has been tarnished of late by his baffling inconsistency. He’s still young and in an ascending offense, so he’s a fine WR1 for as long as he remains on the Cowboys. Calvin Ridley, with only a small step forward, becomes a really good WR2. This team was headed for some rough seas had dale not traded for Brandin Cooks. Cooks in Houston is criminally underrated. For years, Cooks has been a top-3 deep ball receiver, and now he’s matched up with perhaps the most aggressive deep passer in the league. John Brown is really good, but his QB can’t hit him, and he just lost his alpha dog status on that team. Between the two, there should be at least one good matchup every week with blowup potential. This would make an outstanding best ball lineup. Should things not work out well, dale was wise to grab two rookie WRs, though I question whether either one will make it in fantasy.

RB Strength: 4th
James Conner returns home after a year doing his Manchurian Candidate routine on my roster. Between Conner and Derrick Henry, will any team be able to boast more total snaps from their top-2 runners? If Conner stays healthy, dale has a really good shot at the playoffs. If Raheem Mostert (son of a bitch…) somehow hits 250 touches, this is an elite trio. Then James White and Matt Breida are both potential spot starts on the bench, with Damien Harris in the wings as an upside lottery ticket. This is a well-designed group.

TE Strength: 9th
Ian Thomas is a popular breakout candidate, and the table is set for him to finally live up to the promise. However, if he doesn’t, there’s nothing in the cupboard to cook when the dinner gets burned.

Youth: 6th
The entire starting lineup is young, with perhaps the exception of Brandin Cooks (who is still only 26). Part of what made this Youth rating is Conner’s future value, but that doesn’t take into account that he is a free agent after this season and nobody else will value his game the way Pittsburgh does. It’s possible he has little value if he is not resigned. Even so, Dale has done a fantastic job rebuilding the lineup, and he has two 1sts next season to keep it rolling.

06. Isotopes - Petey - 76.7
(2019: 69.9, 10th; 2018: 71.6. 6th)
This team looks a lot like the good guys on Space Jam - a just barely good enough team dragged to contention by a legend

QB strength: 2nd
Lamar Jackson reminds me of the Cam Newton debate where people thought he wouldn’t be able to play because they had limited talent recognition, lack of scouting chops, or racism. Or all three. Remember when people thought black quarterbacks would never be successful? The top 6 dynasty QBs are all black, as well as the last two league MVPs. What a time to be alive.

Jackson’s 2019 was perhaps the most astounding QB season of all time, including Mahomes’ 2018. It’s hard to think that Jackson can get better, but even if he takes a step back he’s good enough to carry a fantasy team to the playoffs as long as the rest of the starters on the roster actually play. If Jackson gets hurt, and his playstyle makes that a higher risk than normal, David Carr is a pretty strong backup. I’m not sure a third QB is needed.

WR Strength: 8th
Mike Evans and D.K. Metcalf are easily the most physically imposing top-2 in the league. I’m not sure Metcalf has much room to get better. He’s never going to be a route-running technician in the short, middle area of the field, but he can still develop enough technique to be utterly dominant outside and deep. Still, that offense limits him to a relatively low target count, so there’s a ceiling to him even if he gets better as a player. He seems a bit overrated at this moment based on him abusing the depleted, over-matched Eagles secondary in last season’s playoffs. Mike Evans is a good comp to what Metcalf could hope to become, in the future. The issue with Evans this season is that he might start to regress in that offense and with Brady. I think he’ll be fine for another year, but if Brady is around next season, I wouldn’t want to own Evans. Cooper Kupp is as good of a 3rd WR as there is the entire league. This ranking suffers a lot because there’s no real good 4th option, and the 5th is even worse.

RB Strength: 10th
I thought Josh Jacobs would be a bust based on his athletic profile and college production. His film was pretty good though, and he is the poster child for the scouting vs. analytics argument, and what opportunity can earn a rookie RB in fantasy (Hello, CEH). Lots of people assume Le’Veon Bell will return value this season because of the opportunity and how it can’t get worse than last season. I disagree. Gase loves Frank Gore and will make every excuse to get him involved as often as possible (Hello, Kenyan Drake). Aside from that, Bell just doesn’t have much juice left. Once again, there’s just nothing available at flex, which makes one flex spot a huge question mark every week. It would not take much of an upgrade at that last flex spot to make this team a playoff contender.

Next season, if Aaron Jones is out of town and A.J. Dillon is the cheesehead version of Derrick Henry, this team will look much, much more formidable.

TE Strength: 12th
Jack Doyle will probably be a serviceable starter for the first few weeks, but afterwards his opportunity could be split with Trey Burton just enough to put a low, fixed ceiling on both. It’s hard to say, because Burton has never proven it as a consistent target over most of a season. I can’t see having both being a good thing. Darren Fells was a waste of a roster spot, and keeping Delanie Walker is among the most baffling and indefensible decisions in the history of this league.

Youth: 3rd
This ranking is driven primarily by Lamar Jackson, which is both fair and a glitch in the algorithm. He won’t keep scoring more and more fantasy points each season for 5 years, and the algorithm assumes he will because most starters steadily get better for their first 5-7 years in the league. Aside from that oddity, Metcalf and Jacobs are a terrific foundation. Surprisingly, Cooper Kupp is older than Mike Evans, though neither are “old.” As long as this team cashes in on their 1st round picks for a year or two, it will be a strong contender year in and year out.

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05. No Use For A Name - RetroVertigo - 78.3
(2019: 75.0, 5th; 2018: 77.5, 2nd)
Cerberus lost a head, but the remaining two are as deadly as ever

QB strength: 8th
I guess Tom Brady still has starter value? He has the best weapons he’s probably ever had, but I can’t see how he has the physical tools to take advantage of them. Smart to draft Tua, just in case the wheels fall off in Tompa. I know the ranking is low, but you could do significantly worse than a Brady/Cousins pairing and playing the matchups.

WR Strength: 9th
Courtland Sutton is outrageously good. There’s a chance Will Fuller and A.J. Green stay healt… nevermind, that was stupid and a waste of time to even attempt to type. That will never happen. I apologize for wasting your time.

When the inevitable happens and both Green and Fuller are signing extended leases for your IR spots, what do we have? CeeDee Lamb is on the squad! That offense is loaded! I’d bet against a top-24 finish, but he should be a reasonable flex. A lot of this team’s recent picks at WR didn’t pan out, but Lamb will likely break that curse. The problem is there isn’t another option to fill that final flex after week 3. Barring a miracle, it will be hard to compete this season. This ranking will be a lot better next season, but by then you’ll need another option to replace Fuller and Green, whose shattered bones will marvel medical professionals around the country on their Freak Injury 2021 tour.

RB Strength: 2nd
The three-headed beast is no more. Melvin Gordon isn’t going to return RB1 value unless Phillip Lindsay gets hurt, and top-24 might not be in the cards. Still, even without Gordon, Zeke and Cook are once again a top-2 duo in this league. If Gordon does fall into a time share, or if Cook gets hurt yet again, there’s no one on the bench worth starting. For years this has been among the most consistent, potent position groups in the league. However, far on the horizon, the end of the road has suddenly come into view. Will it be a mirage?

TE Strength: 11th
I wonder what upside Ebron has in Pittsburgh. At best, he’ll have that classic Heath Miller TE season where there is a dearth of yardage and a disproportionate red zone impact. Kinda like O.J. Howard’s entire career so far. This looks like a middle of the pack, uninspiring pairing. Maybe 11th is too low, though.

Youth: 9th
This is pretty much entirely due to Tom Brady. On the other hand, Ebron and the flex starters aren’t exactly young. There’s an option in house to replace A.J. Green, but some work will need to be done to replace Gordon when he starts to fade, or Fuller when his knees crumble to dust mid-9 route like he got snapped out of existence.

04. New York Fanboys - Ellis Dee - 78.4
(2019: 73.9, 6th; 2018: 66.8, 12th)
Team Yo-Yo was up (Champs!), then down, and this season…?

QB strength: 9th
Baker Mayfield has the name, but Daniel Jones actually has the higher projection based on my system. That was a surprise to me. Come to think of it, Baker was not only a disappointment last season, his tape was discouraging. He desperately needs to bounce back this season.

When Daniel Jones entered the league, he was compared to Eli Manning for obvious reasons. From what we have seen, that is actually who he is, and as we all know that was never actually any good. Maybe Jones will be helped by getting all his skill position guys healthy at one time. Maybe he’s just a mistake-prone chucker. That can work for fantasy (Hello, Jameis!).

For the first time since 2010, Eli Manning is not the opening day starter for the Fanboys. Repent, for thy end is surely nigh.

WR Strength: 6th
What’s strange about this rating is there is no alpha WR on the roster. Maybe Hollywood Brown grows into that, but his upside seems to be lower-volume DeSean Jackson in his offense. Maybe Slayton turns into a consistent starter as a deep threat, but so too is his upside another lower-volume DeSean Jackson. Otherwise, it’s all slot WRs, all the way down. Very limited upside, but a high floor. This is an interesting roster construction strategy, assuming there is more high variance/upside elsewhere on the roster.

RB Strength: 5th
Christian McCaffrey had one of the best fantasy seasons of all time last season. He probably can’t do that again, but he can cover up for a lot of roster holes, and one of those holes is at RB2. Cam Akers is the new, sexy draft pick, but he came in as the least polished of the top backs in this class. Then he was drafted by a team with two other options that the current regime trusts, and now he is in a decidedly unsexy menage-a-trois committee. If he steals the job, that’s an elite fantasy option. If he doesn’t, there’s not much hope of getting replacement level production for that starting spot, let alone a third option in the flex.

Between the slot-dominated WRs and McCaffrey, this team has absurd consistency and will likely never shit the bed in any given week. But, how many weeks will they be in the top-3 in scoring? This screams 8-8 to me.

TE Strength: 1st
Kelce is extremely valuable in this league, not only for his production, not only for his positional scarcity, but his outrageous consistency. Kelce has four straight overall TE1 seasons in this league, which started the year after I traded him for scraps. Ellis has built the most consistent, low-variance fantasy team I think I’ve ever seen.

Youth: 7th
Only Jarvis Landry and Kelce are older, but the lowish rank is due to the low ceilings among the younger starters. Just as this team will have a high floor/low ceiling outlook from week to week, it is constructed to be that way for several seasons in the future.

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03. Ides of Martz - Omniscient - 80.9
(2019: 72.9, 9th; 2018: 69.7, 9th)
The Jeff Fisher All-Stars look poised to break out and earn their first postseason berth in league history

QB strength: 11th
This is a low ranking, and it looks to be by design. That can work at QB if you have a couple passable streaming options. Minshew and Lock aren’t in danger of losing their jobs and should yield a league-average matchup week to week. The ceiling is pretty low, and there’s just as much chance that neither guy has a good week as one of them does. Better hope you pick correctly, though it might not matter.

Somehow Trubisky won the job in Chicago. 2020 strikes again. There’s a chance Mitchell Trubisky can turn it around with a fire lit under his ass, but luckily this team doesn’t have to rely on that unlikely, horrifying outcome. Look, I, too, love kissin’ titties. But this guy shouldn’t be a starter, and he probably shouldn’t be rostered.

WR Strength: 2nd
This has been the backbone of this team’s construction for years, and it looks as potent as ever. There was some question last year about whether this was the best group, and that question is still valid this season. Nobody has a better 4th WR, or perhaps even 3rd. But this ranking is held down by no reliable 5th option, once again. That might be considered a luxury, but with how shallow this team’s RB group is, it is unlikely this team could survive starting only 3 WRs in the event of an injury.

Considering Julio, Thielen, and Woods are all over the 27-year-old crest, there is very little time to take advantage of how good this group is. Do you go all-in on a short championship run driven by these older, high-level WRs? Or do you sell them off now and build a longer run a year or two from now? This will be a fascinating management question for Omni to answer.

RB Strength: 9th
Has this league ever seen a more shocking and ballsy draft decision than taking Edwards-Helaire 1st overall? Had that miracle not occurred, this would have been by far the worst group in the league. That’s how quickly, and how significantly, CEH will contribute. I’m certain he will pan out, but the question is the degree to which he does and whether he can hold up to NFL-level punishment. Antonio Gibson was a savvy pick in the 2nd as the league-winning-sleeper du’jour. However, the hype never really made sense that he would be an every down starter as a rookie. If he later turns into the next CMC as was promised, this team becomes a championship favorite for as long as Julio lasts. If he doesn’t immediately return RB2 value this season, the only player who can be counted on to see even a 30% timeshare would be 2019 LVP-candidate Tarik Cohen.

It was really smart to go RB/RB in this year’s rookie draft based on this roster. This team desperately needs both to pay off immediately, because if it takes a couple years, the window may have closed before it was ever actually open.

TE Strength: 4th
Mark Andrews was outstanding last season. If that is the new normal, Omni found a gem on the waiver wire late in 2018. I’m not sure either of the bench options are worth hanging onto, but that’s a minor quibble.

Youth: 5th
With the WRs, this team isn’t “young.” But because none of them are so old that they project to completely break down in the next 2-3 years, the youth score isn’t affected too much. The theme, again, is that the window is open now. For how long?

You have reached the intermission. I suggest getting up to stretch your legs, grab a beverage, or use the restroom. What comes next will take some time.

02. HungryHungryHaruspex - Jules Andre - 84.6
(2019: 87.5, 1st; 2018: 77.3, 3rd)
Once again a top contender, who among us can’t wait to see how widespread injury and fluky negative outlier performance screws this team for the third straight year?

QB strength: 10th
Carson Wentz has comfortably settled into a mid-range QB1 starter with a settled floor and ceiling, and not much difference between them. What changes now is that he finally has speed on the outside that he has not really had his entire career to open the offense up. He could take a big step forward. Jimmy Geesus is safe, reliable, and relatively boring. That’s fine for a backup, but if he has to start half a season, the rest of my team has no margin for error to make the playoffs. It’s probably a bad idea to build a team that relies on Wentz to start 16 games.

WR Strength: 3rd
This is going to be long because there’s a lot here. I warned you about the restroom.

Tyreek Hill has as much upside as anyone, and very few players have similar potential to finish as the overall WR1. He suffered from an opening day injury last season, and then Mahomes was hobbled a bit in the middle of the season, but he’ll rebound. D.J. Moore is a top-6 dynasty asset at WR, partially because despite having two full seasons in the league, he’s still just 23. That makes him the second youngest WR in the top-12. His fit with Carolina, and Teddy B., is perfect to result in a Michael Thomas type season where Moore gets 175+ targets and a shallow average depth of target. He could catch 100 passes and be a PPR superstar, but he really needs to find a way to be a weapon in the red zone to truly ascend.

Beyond that is Terry F1 McLaurin, who was a steal in the 3rd last season and a future top-12 WR. People underrate him because of Haskins, but Haskins turned it on the last four weeks of last season. He was especially improved in the final two games. McLaurin is one of the better draft steals in this league’s history, and if late-season Haskins is the one we see this season, McLaurin’s future starts this season. He’s close to unguardable because of his surprisingly elite route running and game-breaking speed.

The 4th option is Stefon Diggs. If anyone can help Josh Allen look more accurate, it would be Diggs. Nobody was better on deep passes last season (Diggs was 1st in catch rate, yards per target, and touchdowns, and 6th in passer rating when targeted). He’s the best route runner in the league, and the deep ball tracker in the league. It’s a crime that he got sent to Buffalo, but aside from maybe Tyreek Hill, Diggs will path to the scattershot Allen deep passes better than anyone. This changes the geometry of Allen’s inaccuracy and could turn several of his bad passes into touchdowns. You’re welcome, Beef.

You won’t get any argument from me if you say the top 3 or 4 here is not as good as some other team’s. But nobody has better 5-8th receivers. Jerry Jeudy is the best route runner I’ve ever seen as a rookie. Diontae Johnson wasn’t expected to do much based on his pre-draft profile, but he immediately turned into a dangerous route runner. If you’ve done any research over the summer, you probably heard that Diontae led the NFL last season in separation per target. Diontae has drawn lofty comparisons, and should he hit on the most common one, he has league-winning upside. Here it is:

Diontae Johnson: 5’10" 183, 9" hands, 4.53 40yd dash, 63rd percentile college dominator
Player X: 5’10" 186, 9" hands, 4.56 40yd dash, 60th percentile college dominator

You can probably guess that Player X is Antonio Brown. Diontae’s game is eerily similar to Antonio Brown’s as an exceptional route runner with average athleticism. It doesn’t pop off the screen the way it does with Diggs or Keenan Allen or Jerry Jeudy, so I remain skeptical. Still, this will be a fun season with Big Ben back (maybe) healthy.

This was an entire novel to discuss my WR’s and I didn’t get to Preston Williams, Anthony Miller, or preseason darling Bryan Edwards. Oh, and Van Jefferson embarrassed the 2nd and 3rd string in recent practices to the point that he was lined up against Jalen Ramsey every day just to give him a test. He won his share of those reps, too.

RB Strength: 1st
There is a pretty wide margin in projected value between this group and the 2nd best group. Saquon is a generational talent, and I think the best overall running back in the NFL. If you include physical traits with production and receiving talent, there’s no argument. Both Joe Mixon and Kenyan Drake are the rare combination of entrenched starters with upper-level physical talent and no competition for touches. Mixon has won the AFC rushing title with nothing around him and the worst O-Line in the league. He’ll finally get to experience running into unstacked boxes. Drake was traded to Arizona midway through last season and turned that into the RB3 overall from that point. In their spread offense, Arizona creates more running gaps than any team other than Baltimore.

My RB4 is Jonathan Taylor. You may have heard of him. If not, he’s the guy who is the most physically dominant rookie RB in the last decade, other than Saquon. He’s running behind the best O-Line in the league. That’s a group as deep as the Mariana Trench, and there’s more upside behind them. Bryce Love put up some of the most fun tape I’ve ever seen in college, and he’s finally healthy on a depth chart with no established starter in front of him. I’m really high on Eno Benjamin, who several scouts had in the top 4 college RBs heading into last season. He has pro traits, but probably has a ceiling of a Gio Bernard in the NFL.

TE Strength: 7th
Hunter Henry still has that quiet, unassuming upside, but he lost his dump down QB. There’s some mystery here as to whether the offense can keep Henry valuable.

Dallas Goedert is as good as advertised, but he’s still stuck behind Zach Ertz. The Eagles run enough 12 personnel, and pass enough out of it, that Goedert has boderline starter value as is. He finished 10th last season at TE. The ranking here seems fair.

Youth: 1st
The two oldest players on this team are Jimmy G, and Stefon Diggs. Age doesn’t matter as much for a QB, and Diggs is 26. I genuinely think this roster will be competitive for years even if I pull a Varlos and get abducted by a cartel during a botched run south of the border for coke and bargain rate plastic surgery.

Well, I’m spent. Was it good for you? We can probably stop here. I think we’re good.

247

Fine, we’ll keep going, whatever. This is dumb anyway.

01. Moridwon - Hamlet - 85.5
(2019: 85.7, 2nd; 2018: 69.9, 8th)
The reigning champs are the favoite to repeat. What happened to all the bad injury luck?

QB strength: 3rd
Obviously Mahomes is one of only two options on the ballot for the top dynasty QB. He’s second in the projections, but I’d take him over any QB, and I can’t see that changing for a long, long time. Pairing him with Joe Burrow sets this position as the #1 group for potentially fifteen years? That is absurdly fun and awesome. This sucks.

WR Strength: 1st
Michael Thomas is so far above #2 that he makes up for some warts elsewhere, and “wart” is relative. Last season this group looked dominant, young, and scary. If you take the time to pull out a microscope, some cracks have appeared in the foundation. Keenan Allen is a ridiculously good route runner, but can Tyrod take advantage of it? He doesn’t seem like the type of QB who has been able to. At his age, and with the uncertainty at QB, his value as a starter is coming to a close. Juju, even excusing that he dealt with QB play which was objectively disgusting to any football fan, looked like he can’t really cut it as a #1 alpha guy. We’ll get confirmation of whether that is actually true this season. Even if the worst came to be, this group’s ranking might not need Keenan and Juju, because Michael Gallup, Tyler Boyd, Mike Williams, and new addition Brandon Aiyuk all have incredible upside. There’s definitely one starter there, if needed. Two starters? Maybe that becomes an issue down the line.

RB Strength: 3rd
There is no set-it-and-forget-it stud here, but this is otherwise a deep group. It’s also a frustrating one to evaluate since 3 of the top 5 guys here were on my roster at one point. I should run projections for a team built from the guys I’ve dropped fishing for injury replacements over the last two to three seasons.

There’s some question about whether Ekeler can handle the load. If he can, he’s an elite option and this team will cruise to the playoffs. I think he’s fine, because he’s got a shifty quality to him that he rarely takes the brunt of any hit. If he can’t, perhaps Chris Carson and David Johnson have just enough left to carry the team in his stead. If you buy the narrative angle, both Seattle and Houston have incentive to force that to work, so it’s very likely one of them is an every week starter. Behind them is a lot of talent, but not the best opportunity. Singletary faces an even committee split with a back who looks to be better overall, and Marlon Mack is a common pick to lose his job by midseason. Late in the season, when injuries have crept in and the bench guys have lost their lead dog roles, this could actually present as a problem. Though it may take several unfortunate events to all occur at once, this may be an otherwise dominant team’s Achilles’ heel.

TE Strength: 3rd
Waller turned out as well as anyone could have hoped after he was a popular Hard Knocks sleeper. Now that there are legit receivers outside, he might not see the volume, but he should still be a solid starter. I didn’t know Jared Cook was still in the league, but for one final season he has a lot of value. Yet another sleeper darling rounds out the group with Mike Gesicki. These are terrific reserves.

Youth: 2nd
It’s hard to argue with the construction of this roster, or even to find weaknesses. Top to bottom the group is young and loaded. There is a real shot, perhaps even a likely one, that this league will see its first back-to-back champion.

248

Nice! Haven’t had time to read all of that yet (just woke up) but I love it. Thanks much for all the work you put into that.

249

I’m just gonna go ahead and make my pick. If Overly wants it, I’ll just pick again. No worries.

Tampa Bay Bucs defense/st

250

Yup, happens every year. And every year my team manages to claw their way to eight wins or so (and more than half the time, a playoff spot). I look forward to beating the odds again this season.

Thanks for the writeup, I enjoyed it.

251

Right before the start of the draft I missed a post from Hamlet who decided to change his cuts. He decided to drop Jamaal Williams and keep Darryl Williams. I didn’t notice it at the time and didn’t implement it, and Hamlet just saw it when he was adjusting his roster today. I went ahead and made the adjustment, so now Jamaal Williams is on waivers with everyone else. But it does mean that if anyone would’ve drafted Jamaal Williams had they saw he was available on yahoo and didn’t notice that post in the thread, they didn’t do so.

There’s not really any way to go back and correct it now, with the draft being over (well, Overly is yet to make his last pick) so I hope that didn’t screw up anyone’s plans.

252

NM…nothing to see

253

Hamlet got him with his last pick in the draft. Technically, the draft is still going with Overly having the last pick remaining.

254

Yeah, just got my edit in. Oh well. I’ll probably end up streaming D/ST from the scraps available

255

Alright, last pick,
Brian Hill, RB, ATL

256

Done, and that concludes our draft.

Don’t forget your rosters started empty this year (I’m not sure if that’s how it always is but in this case everyone started on the bench) so fill your starting roster up if you’ve got anyone playing in tonight’s game.

Also everyone that wasn’t drafted is up on waivers until saturday, so put in a bid if you want someone.

257

Yep, always been that way.

258

Big trade announcement coming (me and Jules).

259

Look at you being this league’s Adam Schefter! Nice scoop

Trade to announce:
HungryHungryHaruspex gives up:
RB Kenyan Drake
WR Stefon Diggs
QB Jimmy Garoppolo

Nine Inch Neils gives up:
WR DeAndre Hopkins
RB James Robinson
TE Noah Fant

260

Kind of regretting this after watching how ineffective the Texans passing game is without Hopkins. But I need a QB, I’ve got a dozen tight ends, and I really needed a running back with a guaranteed role. Besides, Diggs has been damn good at times and he’s younger than Nuk.