Sorry to say, we have a new “champion.” This will artificially boost my “points against,” but that’s okay. I somehow managed to have a top 3 score this week despite losing my RB in the 1st quarter of his game.
I really hope I get to see CMC and Kamara healthy together for an extended stretch. Each one is like having an extra WR starting for me with how much passing work they each get. They give my team such an absurdly high floor, that it would be cool to see the plan actually work.
Alright, so I think we’re going to need to have a league discussion on this one. I don’t recall if we’ve ever had a traded voided in this league, but if we did, it’s extremely rare. People are free to do as they wish. But this feels like a trade that could harm the league and I don’t really understand it.
Overly has expressed that he’s probably going to want to be replaced next year in this league, so he’s not going to have to live with the consequences of this trade, the new owner will. I am loathe to put the new owner in an even worse position by having a trade that seems to me very damaging to the long term outlook of his team.
Mac Jones seems like he’s going to be the best QB in this draft class. That may end up not being the case - others may just be slow to start - but that’s the way it looks right now.
Deshaun Watson is hard to value. There are trade rumors that he’s going to be traded to Miami before the trade deadline, and if that happens, his trade value goes way up. This is probably why Jules is interested in him. He might be back to top 6 or so dynasty QB material.
Aaron Rodgers, while still great, is 37 years old. It’s amazing what Tom Brady is doing but he seems like an exception, it seems unlikely that Rodgers is going to be playing in the league that much longer.
So looking at the QBs, Overly is giving up a 23 year old QB who seems like the best rookie in a QB-heavy class and a 26 year old QB who could be one of the top dynasty QB assets if he does indeed get traded to a better team. In exchange, he’s receiving a 37 year old QB who probably has at most 2-3 more good years left.
Now - you might make some component of this trade if you are a contender and want that piece to put you over the top. That’s why Jules traded for Rodgers last year. But Overly isn’t in that position - he should be rebuilding. To trade away young pieces for old pieces while you’re rebuilding really doesn’t make any sense, it’s the opposite of what you should be doing. And even if you were trying to put yourself over the top, you’d probably trade one of your young QB assets, not both.
I’m personally a little confused, too, because Overly offered me Watson a few weeks back - I didn’t need him - but he was asking a whole lot more than Jules actually gave him. So I’m confused about how Overly values him. And, if anything, Watson has become more valuable in recent weeks due to the trade rumors.
Now - I can understand selling on Kittle. That’s actually a solid move from a rebuilding team. He’s still valued as one of the top dynasty TEs even though he’s getting up there in age and is injured a lot. It would make sense that a rebuilding team would trade him because by the time they were good again he might not be very valuable anymore. But I’m not seeing that value at the other end of the trade. This trade is not exactly TE for TE, because it involves 4 players on each side, but it seems unlikely that Pat Freiermuth is ever going to be a top TE. He might be a Heath Ledger type - better at actual football than fantasy, rarely ever going to be anything but middle of the road in fantasy.
Antonio Brown is up there in age, but has a lot of value to a contender because he’s going off this year. Bryan Edwards is young. I guess this component of the trade is the one that makes the most sense to me - trading an aging asset for a young player with potential, so I think that’s the most defensible part.
I don’t know that Cam Akers is ever going to play football again. The odds are against a RB that tore his achilles heel. But there was a video release a few days ago that showed him making good progress. Maybe he can be the exception. But he needs to come back almost as strong as he left in order to make this trade even remotely fair and I think the odds are against that.
I don’t like to just beat up on people whose trades I don’t like, and I appreciate that Overly is still actively trying to manage his team despite expressing desire to leave the league, but this one seems really bad to me. Some of the moves seem fundamentally going in the right direction to me - selling Brown and Kittle to get younger, but then the QB one is the exact opposite of that - there you’re selling young talent to get WAY older and to have Rodgers for a short window in which you are unlikely to compete.
If this trade didn’t involve both young QBs (where he’s putting all his QB assets in one 37 year old basket) and/or involved him receiving high draft picks instead of a 37 year old QB I think it would make a lot more sense.
But I’d like to get everyone’s opinions, given the circumstances, of whether this is a league-damaging trade.
We shouldn’t be getting involved in trades unless it’s literally egregious like a Rodgers for a kicker or something.
Mac Jones isn’t going to be a top 10 QB stats wise in NE. Watson is probably going to be out all of next season.
Maybe Overly decides that since has Rodgers, he will come back next year.
I’m sure there’s been plenty of “lopsided” trades over the years. You can’t just start voiding them, unless it’s an obvious tank i.e. Rodgers for a kicker.
This is an egregiously one sided trade in Dynasty. Though I normally want the commish to be hands off with the exception of semi-obvious tanking and/or collusion situations. But since Overly has signaled that he’s done with the league, his priorities are out of whack. Smart for Jules to exploit this, but this stinks to high heaven.
The only way this is defensible is if you seriously think Watson will never play another down AND you think Rodgers is going to play at the same level in Green Bay for 5-6 more seasons. The odds of either of those things happening are low, the odds of both are infinitesimal.
The fact that Brown and Kittle are substantially more valuable in both the short term and medium term than Akers and Edwards makes this horrifically unbalanced.
Anyone want to handicap the number of total games each side of this trade will play before retirement?
In my defense, I don’t value Watson at all. I think it’s possible be never plays again, or he goes and plays six more games for a horrible Miami squad before the PR shit storm (and the other unsurfaced allegations, because you know there’s more) comes for him this off-season.
I made a good faith effort to get more for him and I’m selling at what I appraise to be my last chance to get anything.
Further, I can’t really do anything about the fact I couldn’t get more. Jules’ team is so good he doesn’t need to make a trade for anything other than luxury… I’m in a weak position and everybody knows it.
Everybody knew I would sell Watson and Brown and I didn’t hear anything better. This trade allows me to feel more engaged, which I think is also valuable.
But I’ll go along with the crowd, as ever, and if you guys need to reverse it or whatever, I’ll abide.
Would you have traded Mac Jones for Aaron Rodgers straight up?
Almost certainly.
I don’t value Mac Jones any more then anybody else in an era when the league gets 3-4 new rookie qbs each year and they can all be washed out two years later. Rodgers is an all timer, a possible repeat MVP, and I only get 2.5 more years from him, that’s no worse than a push to me.
Can I ask why you’re trading at all?
Are you re-considering staying in the league? Are you trying, against all odds, to make a run this year?
I chuckled at the idea of The Joker or a modern Petruchio playing TE for the Steelers.
I feel like I explained that pretty well in the foregoing.
I told you guys until a decision is reached about my future I wouldn’t give up the ship. I’m trying to do something that balances long- and short-term needs. If you’re saying I should be enjoined from trades in the meantime, that’s certainly your prerogative.
But I think the bigger issue is that it’s been several years since JB and I took over two (probably bad, hence their abandonment) teams via a reassignment draft, and we’re still probably the worst two squads in the league.
Aside from you guys all being very skilled and invested, I think some structural issues in this league make it extremely difficult to become competitive, or even mediocre, even in a multi year window.
I don’t think I was very clear. I think it is great that you’re still active and involved in the league. You could have just walked away, but you’re still active and that is great. I’ve been in leagues where owners disappear and it becomes a niightmare.
What I was trying (unsuccessfully I think) to get at is that I really don’t see any “short term needs” for your team. It’s fantasy football, so anything can happen, but I don’t think anyone expects you to make the playoffs this year. So, as Beef pointed out, yours is a rebuilding team. And if you were sticking around, you should be able to rebuild your team as you see fit. So Rodgers for Mac Jones would be fine. Or Brown for draft picks, etc. I’m just not sure that, if you do leave, losing Kittle, Watson, and Brown for Rodgers is great for the next owner.
To be clear, this is not a trade I would ever make. If Kittle never gets healthy again, Watson never plays again, Jones maxes out as a game manager, Akers fully recovers, Freirmuth is better than anyone thinks, and Bryan Edwards outperforms his 14th WR taken in the draft standing, it might be a great trade for you. But the odds are greatly against even just some of those occurring. I suppose lessening your risk (Kittle is oft-injured, Watson is a press problem, and Brown is 33) is good, but you’re taking on as much risk in return. And for very little upside. I think it’s an awful trade for you.
But, more importantly, it’s an awful trade for whomever owns the team next year. Again, if that is you, I suppose it’s your call on how to rebuild. But you have some serious assets (Kittle, potentially Watson, Jones is a perfect #2 QB and has upside) that a future owner could use.
Absolutely correct. It’s a huge problem with dynasty leagues in general and especially with deep rosters. Some teams have assets that last a long time and a bad team has a rough go to try to rebuild. That said, your team (and mine for that matter) would look a lot better with Josh Allen, Calvin Ridley, DK Metcalf, Darren Waller, Terry McLaurin, Aaron Jones, or Justin Jefferson. All of whom were available to draft for you. Hitting on draft picks is a crapshoot to be sure, but it can be done. Heck JB finished 3rd last year.
But the dynasty format with large rosters makes it much harder to improve a bad team. You have very little room for error. Which leads to a loss of owners. It is an issue to be sure.
This is correct, which is why I think we’re all a bit concerned at this trade. Assuming there’s a new owner, this trade makes your team much, much tougher to manage and improve in the coming years. Setting aside the comparative value of the players, you objectively just got a LOT older. That’s a massive handicap for the person who inherits this group.
Are we interested in ideas for addressing those structural issues?
If we changed rules now or in the coming weeks, could those changes take effect starting next season? Is that enough lead time?
One possible example that I’m not advocating at this time would be to cap the number of keepers, maybe in the 18 to 20 range. I’m not advocating that because it greatly complicates off-season trading, and might end up making things worse. But just as an example, could we decide to do that and then that would apply starting next season?
I wasn’t planning on chiming in since I’m involved, but man, the takes on this trade are bordering on absurd. This wouldn’t even be the most lopsided trade in this league’s recent history, even when factoring in only the people who have spoken up.
Aaron Rodgers is worth more than Deshaun Watson in dynasty. Aaron Rodgers is worth more than Mac Jones in dynasty. You can check by consensus among dynasty players on KeepTradeCut, or you can check by consensus among dynasty experts on DynastyPros. Either way confirms this. If you start from a perspective other than this one when considering this trade, you’re not only carrying an opinion that is contrary to the consensus among everyone, but you’re probably not being objective.
Not only that, Aaron Rodgers is more valuable specifically to Overly’s team than normal, because he has Davante Adams. It is not appropriate for anyone else in the league to tell another manager how to run their team, and that also includes telling them whether they are rebuilding or not. If Overly wants more action on this season, when his division is so far the worst in our league and the most winnable, that is his choice. Rodgers and Adams form the most potent QB/WR stack in the league, and arguably the most potent one you could possibly make among any QB/WR duo. There is no faster way to turn around a floundering team than a powerful QB/WR stack. Add in that there is a psychological component at play; namely, if you have your favorite players on your team, you’re more likely to be invested in the team, and it makes sense for Overly to make a move for Rodgers.
Saying Mac Jones is the best looking rookie of this class, and implying this means anything of value, is a logical fallacy. That does not mean he is good. It just means every other rookie has been worse so far. Mac Jones’ stats thus far are identical to Jared Goff’s.
Saying Overly “objectively just got a LOT older” is, ironically, objectively false. The average age of players Overly gets is 25.8 compared to 27.5 for the players he traded away.
There seems to be an agenda at play here that isn’t related to the merits of the actual trade. It is irrelevant if you don’t understand how someone values a player because you ignored their opening offer weeks ago and made no effort at negotiation. “League-damaging?” Voiding the first trade in 13 years and implementing unwritten limitations on an owner by tacitly declaring “you aren’t allowed to trade unless the league agrees with it” is league-damaging. It isn’t right to expect someone to speak up in advance if they are considering leaving the league without making it clear you were going to hold that statement against them if they tried to manage their team in the future. Where is the line? Are we going to put add/drops to league vote because Overly might leave? Those might damage the hypothetical new owner that may not exist or be needed. If he comes back next season, is he still under this unwritten subordinate ownership arrangement? How long does that last? The only thing these actions achieve, for an owner who is clearly trying to build interest in their squad and explicitly stated so, is to make it more likely that owner would leave.
Well, reducing the number of IR spots was one tactic. We could also potentially discuss reducing the total number of keepers at the end of each season, but I think that somewhat undermines the Dynasty factor.
It’s called “Dynasty” for a reason, teams will become perennial powerhouses.
One thing we need to be cautious about is overdoing it. While there are creative ways to make the penalty for finishing near the the top of the league harsher, this also carries the risk of punishing a team that had a lucky run one year but is inherently weak at it’s foundations (stop looking at me!).
This calls those site’s metrics into question. KTC specifically is crowdsourced and therefore Watson’s stink meter is heavily influencing the stats. Even if we take them at face value, KTC puts Rodgers and Jones as essentially equivalent. Dynasty Pros puts Rodgers and Watson at QB11 and QB12 respectively (as of the start of the season). You got BOTH of them for Rodgers.
I think your bias is showing.
Again, you’re using stats taken out of context to mislead. The absolute age of a RB (with a catastrophic injury) is not equivalent to the absolute age of a QB. You get 2 very young QBs who have the ability to play at a high level for 15+ seasons. He gets a RB who might be good for maybe 5 or 6 and a WR who might one day be elite for 7, maybe 8 years? That Kittle is 5 years older than Freiermuth isn’t that compelling when Freiermuth is not projected by anyone to be a player of Kittle’s production.
Are we just going to ignore that Rodgers wants out of Green Bay, like now?
When taking opinions from owners on the value of players… we should… not factor in the opinions of owners? Is that really the argument you want to make?
Rodgers and Jones are not “essentially equivalent” when Rodgers is worth at least 20-25% more according to their valuation. You might not agree, okay, but that source backs up the trade and not the objections to it. Using the start of the season dynasty pros rankings, 8 weeks into a season, is manipulative and disingenuous. Their current relative rankings have changed because Rodgers is, again, on an MVP pace and Watson is no closer to playing this season or the next. You see, in fantasy football, values change. You can’t just choose to use older values because it suits your narrative. Breaking a 4-for-4 trade into a manufactured, convenient 2-for-1 to support your argument is manipulative and disingenuous. I presented two sources of information to refute the questionable claim that the trade is so imbalanced to warrant unprecedented league action.
https://keeptradecut.com/trade-calculator?var=5&pickVal=0&teamOne=235&teamTwo=1018&format=2
Dead heat in a superflex league. Rodgers is ~20% more valuable in non-superflex. So that’s the disconnect, I think the voters are quite confused there, the difference shouldn’t be that big between the two scoring systems for a straight QB swap.
Still, looking at the rankings KTC ranks Rodgers as QB13, Watson as QB15 and Jones as QB17. There just isn’t a world where this 2 for 1 swap makes sense.
And if we’re going to argue that Overly is in “win now” mode and wants to stack Adams and Rodgers for the 2-3 years they are still a productive tandem, why would you make the short-term downgrade from Brown to Edwards and Kittle to Freiermuth?
The only way this trade makes ANY sense is if you think Akers projects to be a bellcow RB1 for several years to come. Find me someone who still thinks that.