Whoa. I knew my OLD MAN team got a lot younger the last two years, but I didn’t realize that I was second-youngest in the whole league.
I’d imagine a good portion of that number for my team is Brady.
Curious what roster your thing used for my team…my actual lineup is a lot younger than that. For example Garoppolo won’t be starting for obvious reasons.
Definitely. With Tua in there instead, the average goes to 3.3 years
It’s the exact same lineup you have set in your week one matchup. Everyone is young except for Woods and Thielen, and they bring the average up. Those two have 17 years of experience together, so it isn’t insignificant. I guess you could say Etienne has 0 years of experience instead of 1, but even that brings the average down only to 3.3. I don’t see where you can say your actual roster is “a lot” younger?
I didn’t do the math, but part of the problem was that I had mentally flagged several of those guys starting their 3rd-year in my head as 2nd-year guys. I actually have only two 2nd-year guys (Fields, Etienne) and four 3rd-year guys (Kmet, Mooney, Gibson, Edwards-Helaire) with an average experience of 1.66 years. Adding 17 years for the old heads gets me up there, maybe I should start Toney and Pierce on principle.
I’ll be posting team reviews soon, and your youth is your biggest strength, for sure.
Wow. I find that shocking. So much so I had to Google myself, and Google does say he’s a free agent. Crazy.
I usually post a review of my own draft and why I made the choices I did, and I post team by team rankings and reviews. These tend to get wordy and go on and on, but they are for fun and give people something to argue about. Nothing here is critical, so you can skip these if they aren’t interesting to you.
Draft Self Review:
Quiet, but never dormant
1.06 - Jameson Williams, WR, DET
This is a weak draft. For me, there are two elite graded players, and very little that is special after that. The average RB and WR combined grade is almost as low as it has been since I joined the league, just narrowly beating 2019’s combined scores. One one of the elite grades is for Breece Hall, but the price to buy the first overall pick was in a currency I didn’t have available. The second is Jameson Williams.
I’ll admit I was a bit surprised by that grade at first. I didn’t think anyone this year could score high enough of a rating to come close to past players like Amari Cooper, Brandin Cooks, Julio Jones, etc. Now, Jameson is a step below those guys in my scores, yes, but he still passed the threshold I set for an elite WR. Upon reviewing more closely, I get it. Jameson has rare speed, and though he is slender he has an above average catch radius from his height and arm length. Last season he demonstrated superb production at the highest level. He’s younger than Burks, Wilson, and Olave. He had better production than London against far better competition. Even similarly athletic receivers don’t have Jameson’s “pop” on film. His timed speed seems almost slower than his game speed, and his timed speed was really good. He has a path to being the top target on his team, and by the time Jameson is recovered and over the post-ACL-cooldown period, I imagine his QB situation will have changed and improved. Historically, the threshold he hit on my rankings has a 75% hit rate for an elite WR. He was at the bottom of that threshold, but we’ll see.
The big decision for me was whether to spend something of value at a different position to buy a player at a spot I’m so, so deep at. Do I need an 8th WR? I made the move because of the upside. I may have been able to wait a bit as Jameson is hurt and may not start to look normal until 2023. But the only ammo I had to move up was a TE, and only Dale had real need of one in the back half of the draft. that need lined up with my currency, and the cost was lower than I expected overall. But I still wonder if it was an impulsive, poor choice. However, for the price I paid, he’s worth the gamble on that upside. If he hits it, he’s a WR1, and he has that profile.
2.02 - Rachaad White, RB, TB
I didn’t think I would have the ammo to go up into the 1st round for Hall or Williams, so White was my real target for this draft. He was the reason I wanted an early 2nd in my deal with Mundi. I worried he might go higher with the RB premium, and he worryingly trickled up the ADP ranks week by week in the summer. Aside from Breece Hall, who was the clear unicorn of the draft and can’t be compared to, very few of the other RBs had similar athleticism to White. None of those had White’s receiving chops, either. His tape was just okay. There are clear and obvious things he has to work on. The good news is that he doesn’t really make big mistakes. He’s just a solid, good football player. I think he can improve upon his flaws relatively easily with coaching, and he has the things you can’t coach. He strikes me as having a floor of a guy who sticks in the league for 8 years and does everything well, and nothing great. His ceiling is the Kamara level. I hope he gets a real shot before he ages out of his prime because he’s an older rookie.
5.02 - Tyquan Thornton, WR, NE
I wasn’t really planning for another WR here because I’m as deep as you can possibly get at that spot. It was too hard to pass up on Thornton because of his 2nd round draft capital. Not only that, he has at least one elite measurable that makes him special – his generational speed. He also showed in the preseason that he can play a bit, where other one-dimensional speed-plus receivers never made even the tiniest mark on the field. Thornton is on a team with nobody who does what he does, so I think he’ll get every chance to earn starter reps. Can’t beat that for a 5th round pick. If he doesn’t turn out, he’s my 9th WR? 10th?
I am not going to lie, the listing of Cooks as being an elite WR raised my eyebrow, and don’t remember him ever being graded that highly.
Fair, and I wasn’t playing dynasty back then to have done a grade in real time, so to speak. I developed this grading system and then back filled the older draft classes to see how it treated players I knew. I’m certain that the experts had much higher grades on Sammy Watkins and Mike Evans who were in that same draft class. For me, they both scored nearly identical, high scores (93rd and 94th percentile, respectively). Cooks hit the magical (arbitrary) 96th percentile that separates the very good from the elite in my grading system. I’m trying to avoid overfitting the model, and it hasn’t all been hits. Josh Doctson and Devante Parker were other elite scorers that missed.
Since we have a new owner, I’ll go over how I do these team reviews. The scores are based on a model I’ve built that takes projections from experts and builds a composite. I won’t give away the entire secret formula, but it is mostly projections. These review scores don’t factor in any input from me. I don’t modify the values in any way. I just write the reviews as I see them
Position rankings count your starters and top reserve. So, for QBs it counts your top two. For WRs it counts your top 5 since we can start 4 at most. Only TE works differently. Technically we can start 2, so this should count your top 3. Since that position is so shallow, and nobody regularly starts 2 TEs, I only count the top 2. K and DEF are not considered.
For future value/“Youth,” I built a formula to calculate age-related decline, and it pools together the next four-five years of projected fantasy production. Obviously lots can change in a year, let alone five, so this isn’t super informative. Honestly, I should have just used fantasy PPG as a rating. I would switch, but it means all of the historical data has to be converted and… yeah. Project for another day.
•12. Ides of Martz - Omniscient
2022: 71.7
2021: 74.1, 9th; 2020: 80.9, 3rd; 2019: 72.9, 9th; 2018: 69.7, 9th
Finally starting the rebuild, and it looks promising! So, what’s the plan now?
QB Strength: 12th
I’ll pat myself on the back for this gem of insight: If Fields develops, then this spot is fine. It’s reasonable to wait on that question to be answered, because Fields has all the tools to be a league winner QB, even before the real-world results come about. He may need a couple years, but this team’s timeline is a couple years out. Fields is a perfect QB1 for this team and strategy.
Davis Mills is promising. There are a lot of teams trying to build around the cheap QB contract from a passer found after the 1st round, and I think Houston really believes Mills is that guy for them. He can easily spot start in fantasy if he continues to do what he did last year. The issue is never knowing when the good games will be vs. the horrific games. I also like Malik Willis quite a bit, too. I just don’t know that spending a 2nd round pick on a backup QB in this league was a good use of resources. As a hedge for Fields, I guess the timeline makes sense. This team will know about the same time whether it has a winner in Fields or Willis. For a rebuilding team, this position is in good shape.
WR Strength: 9th
There’s no WR1 here, but perhaps Darnell Mooney has that potential to top out as a low-end WR1. The stack with Fields is nice, too. It just might be another year or two before that potential has a chance to be realized, which is fine for this timeline. There’s a lot of WR2s on this team, and I would have liked to see this team move Robert Woods and/or Thielen to a contender before their value cratered. They don’t fit this team’s timeline anymore. I remember when this team was arguably top of the league at WR, and this ranking illuminates the slow burn of the candle over time that makes dynasty so fun.
RB Strength: 8th
Man, Gibson and Edwards-Helaire sure didn’t pan out so far, did they? This is the what happens to a team when the bet doesn’t go your way. Not much you can do, it happens. It was smart to take advantage of Etienne being available. He immediately became the highest rated RB on the roster, and RBs of that potential don’t come available often. If Dameon Pierce actually is going to be an unquestioned starter, Omni may have rebuilt his starters on the fly. that’s tough to do, and it would really save this team, a year or two off the rebuild. In that scenario, surely one of Gibson or CEH has to be a usable flex week-to-week. But I don’t know that the rest of the team will be ready along with Etienne and Pierce, though.
TE Strength: 7th
Cole Kmet is a really popular breakout candidate. I don’t know that locking down the Chicago passing game is wise, but things can change. TE usually takes a while to develop, so once this team is ready to contend, Kmet will be entering his prime. Mark Andrews, while much more proven, may have been nearing the end of his peak in that same time. This position now better fits the timeline, so the direction here makes sense. Too often football, and especially fantasy, suffers from results-based thinking. The plan here is coherent, hopefully the execution matches.
Youth: 9th
Fields, Etienne, Pierce, Mooney, and Kmet. That’s 5 starting spots potentially locked down, and all under 25? Not bad! The issue is that not a single one of them has really proven it (perhaps Mooney has, but hopefully that wasn’t his ceiling). Since that core is well-defined and ready to be built around, Omni is in good shape to jump out of the cellar within a season or two. It will be a slow rise, but this team is set to ascend.
•11. Formerly Sentimental - Spiritus_Mundi
2022: 72.6
2021: 62.6, 12th; 2020: 73.5, 9th; 2019: 75.6, 4th; 2018: 67.3, 11th
A new challenger enters the arena and wastes no time tearing the place down.
QB Strength: 10th
Turning around a dynasty orphan is not something you can do passively. If you hit every single draft pick, maybe, but even then it would take years. I appreciate decisive action, and Mundi came into the league swinging. Aaron Rodgers is good, but he’s old and there’s no way he is worth a team like this holding on to. Mundi wisely got solid value for him while he could. Now Joe Burrow is on the team, and he’s both young and elite. The backup QB on this team hurts the rating, but stick any youngish passer with upside on the team and this rating will shoot up. Since QBs last so long, the competing window isn’t necessarily open right now, so Mundi retains flexibility on when to accumulate and when to go all in.
WR Strength: 8th
Tee Higgins has his bona fides laid out. Even as a #2 target on his team, he’s a consensus WR1 in fantasy and in dynasty. He’s still young, his team outlook is excellent, and he doesn’t have any major question marks in his game. There is a downgrade this season from Davante Adams to Higgins, but no doubt that was the better long-term move.
There wasn’t much else to be thrilled with here, but Christian Kirk is (apparently) going to be the center of his team’s passing offense. He can play, but he hasn’t proven he can shoulder the load. Trading for Juju Smith-Schuster makes a lot of sense. Juju is still young, he has an outstanding fantasy finish to his name, and he’s walking into the best situation possible. A lot of people think he will break out this year for good. I think his skillset is a bit redundant with Kelce’s, and he won’t help open the offense in ways that KC needs to counter the defensive strategies used against them last year. It’ll be very interesting to see. He might be this year’s Waddle
Calvin Ridley is a perfect gamble for a rebuilding team. He has elite production in his history, and he won’t artificially inflate this team’s results this year and hurt their draft. Next year, he could completely solve this team’s final flex spot. Either way, the price was relatively low, and it is worth the gamble.
RB Strength: 11th
The decision to rebuild and not take advantage of the 1st overall pick and a genuine elite prospect at the most important position in fantasy is a very interesting one. If Mundi saw something that scared him away from Hall, I get it. But this is the type of move that will always act as a fulcrum for this team. Missing out on Hall if he works out is one thing. Giving him away for a frankly modest return is another. That move can haunt an owner for years.
Cam Akers can be a solid dynasty asset, so the cupboard isn’t bare. He needs to show he’s not only healthy, but recovered. If he does, that’s a big head start for this rebuild. If he doesn’t, Darrell Henderson is still around to potentially take advantage of the Rams’ offense. One of those two will be startable. It was fortunate Brian Robinson fell to this team in the 2nd round. His recovery is uncertain, and lower leg injuries like that for a RB are a concern, but he should be fine. Once he comes back, he’s in line to take over the job right away. That is two starters down.
Alexander Mattison is just about the best handcuff in the league. I would have guessed he would have been moved as part of this first stage of a rebuild, but as an impending free agent, he has ranking-upheaval potential if he lands a starting job without much competition. There’s a good chance that trio is solidly middle of the pack next year and stable enough to count on.
TE Strength: 11th
Pat Freiermuth surprised a lot of people last year, and I think he’s undervalued. He’s absolutely fine as a starting TE, and he’s young enough to lock this position down for years. With a capable, starting TE in reserve, this ranking will only go up. No work really needed here.
Youth: 7th
The QB will always have an outsized impact on this ranking, and Burrow helps inflate it quite a bit. But it isn’t like the rest of the starters this year are old, outside of maybe DeVante Parker. I think 7th is fair given the assets and potential in the starting lineup. The depth is lacking a bit, but it is fair to grade this team as a middle-tier team starting next season.
•10. Gusterrhoids - Justin_Bailey
2022: 75.4
2021: 72.8, 10th; 2020: 71.5, 11th; 2019: 68.7, 11th; 2018: 68.1, 10th
Every time this team ranks 10th, they finish 10th. Every time they rank 11th, they finish 3rd.
QB Strength: 7th
The rankings love Kyler Murray. He’s got the fantasy cheat code. His offense is non-sensical in a good way for fantasy. Every year he stubs his toe and falls apart. He ranges from fine to other-worldly in September and October. He hardly plays in November (6 games in 3 years as starter? Is that really true?). then he basically sucks in December. It’s the same shit, every year. It’s not quite a coincidence because of the slight stature and injury issues, but it surely won’t continue. If it does, is he the fantasy Manchurian QB? Can you win in fantasy, or in the NFL, with Kyler falling apart during your playoff run?
Spending a 3rd on a backup QB is fine. Spending that when your starter gets hurt every year, and that rookie is going to helm an offense with a ton of weapons, is very smart. Good pick, good value. This position is fine, and the ranking is artificially low because it is counting Jameis Winston, who might be a boring game manager at this point.
WR Strength: 5th
Good lord, does Justin have a type, or what? I’m thinking that since his entire WR group is basically built of Mike Evans clones, I should have gotten more for Evans in trade. I messed up.
Mike Evans is elite, he’s a locked in WR1, and he’s perhaps more stable than any WR in history. If you’re competing, he’s an ideal asset. I don’t know that this team is competing, but the good news is that there’s a chance that Drake London, Chase Claypool, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Hunter Renfrow are a viable starting 4. And all of them are young. On the other hand, I think London is overrated and will be a bust, Chase Claypool is a baffling player whose failure to earn a real shot is telling, Amon-Ra has only ever done anything when everyone else who can catch was hurt, and Renfrow’s team just brought in the best WR in the game. This is an absolutely critical season for all four of those players. This team very much needs 2 of those 4 to make good on their promise.
RB Strength: 12th
It was smart to go heavy at this spot in the draft. I would argue it wasn’t heavy enough, but that’s because I don’t like London. I would feel uncomfortable if Eli Mitchell was my #1. He could easily finish as a RB1. He could get hurt a couple times, and then say the wrong thing in the direction of his coach and be a game-day inactive for half the season. The former is far more likely, but I would want more stability from the top RB on my team if I was looking to compete.
Jamaal Williams is just a guy, but he’s a more disciplined runner than D’Andre Swift, and he might be running behind a very good O-Line. He could be a solid flex, but as a #2, he erases almost all hope to compete this year. If that’s the case, I don’t know that I would stick with Evans and Mitchell. I like Zamir White’s game and profile, and ditto with James Cook. Both are excellent choices. I like the potential for one of those two to become the RB2 next season and have actual upside there.
TE Strength: 8th
Dallas Goedert is a better player in real life than fantasy, but he’s still pretty good in fantasy. I think AJ Brown will take a lot of the work that made Goedert successful, and I don’t know that improvement from Hurts really improves Goedert. A lot of people love him to break out. He has the talent. I just don’t see how it plays out that way. Regardless, a repeat of last season is fine. I don’t like the pick of Dulcich, even at the near-nil cost of a 4th. There’s too many mouths to feed in that offense, specifically at TE, and the cook is not one to prepare that particular dish.
Youth: 10th
The ranking doesn’t see any future value in Jamaal Williams, so this score is hurt by that. If London is as good as everyone says, Amon-Ra is the next Cooper Kupp, and one of James Cook or Zamir White is startable, this rating will be much better next year. The core is potentially set on this team, I just don’t know how high the ceiling can be.
•09. The Great Old Ones - Ol’Gaffer
2022: 78.6
2021: 70.8, 11th; 2020: 67.2, 12th; 2019: 75.6, 4th; 2018: 77.7, 1st
This team is flying dangerously close to the sun
QB Strength: 9th
Everyone knows about Stafford’s elbow by now. The team insists they can manage it. In order to manage it in the preseason, Stafford missed some time. For the reigning champions, I would think the postseason means more than the regular season, and so I imagine that means they have to rest Stafford during the season. I don’t know that skipping practice all week will be enough, but I can’t say for sure. Either way, there is some risk there.
Coming into the NFL, I thought Trevor Lawrence would be a “soft bust” in the way that Sam Bradford was. Not a complete bust, but not ever good enough to carry a team. The jury is still out, but for a 2nd QB, you can’t complain at all. The coaching change could turn everything around, and everyone considers Lawrence a generational prospect. This position group is fine for a few more years, if not 10+.
WR Strength: 12th
WR is where things get very interesting. This team drafted 2 players, which is the action of a competing team who has too good of a roster to cut deeply into. If you look at the RBs, yes, this team is competing right now. However, the WRs are so bad that I suspect this team overestimated its chances and squandered an opportunity to sell high on some resources.
I love Terry McLaurin, I still regret trading him. It worked out, but I miss him. He could well and truly break out this year with a QB who can actually throw more than 35 yards. No complaints there. Up next is… Garrett Wilson? Wilson could be great, but I suspect he was overdrafted and will make for one of those really solid, never great, WR2s. Regardless, the situation isn’t great for him, and I especially wouldn’t want to rely on him as an every week starter as a 2nd target on an offense with a questionable QB.
What else is there? RobbIE Anderson? It could work, but as a situational deep threat (he can do more, but there are better options for those other routes) that is 3rd in the pecking order at best, I don’t see it. Parris Campbell got replaced, and Kendrick Bourne is going to be somewhere between the 2nd and 12th option on a bad passing attack. This team may actually need to start two TEs, and outside of extreme outlier situations, that is a good way to tank, not compete. I don’t keep these records, but this may be the worst WR ranking since I started these reviews.
RB Strength: 4th
Jonathan Taylor. D’Andre Swift. Outstanding. It would seem like this ranking should be higher, but the fact that it is as high as 4th with almost nobody else on the roster at this spot is remarkable. The ranking counts the top 4 RBs, and this team barely has 3. In a pinch you can play matchups between James Robinson, J.D. McKissic, and Kenneth Gainwell. That doesn’t seem like a viable strategy for an entire season. If Swift is hurt again for more than 2 games at most, and two of those three have to start, the season is over. It feels strange to not be confident in a RB group that has Taylor and Swift, but this is a big problem in a poor disguise.
TE Strength: 4th
Dalton Schultz is a stat compiler extraordinaire. To start the season, with no Amari and Gallup hurt, Dallas will need Schultz to be a primary target. Lots of people expect a breakout for him because of it. I think the offense will suffer for that reason instead, and the moment they can afford to throw to someone else, they will eagerly do so. I don’t know what to make of Hunter Henry. He’s really good at what he does, and he did it last season very well. There’s no reason to think he can’t repeat his 2021 season, but those types of performances tend to not be repeatable. If he was a reserve, he’s outstanding. But on this team, he may need to start at flex, and that is a major concern.
Youth: 8th
This seems low to me with Taylor, Swift, McLaurin, and Garrett Wilson forming an outstanding core. Still, there is clearly work to be done, and I don’t know that Gaffer’s patient approach is the right choice here. Then again, I obviously can’t understand a patient approach, so that strategy is beyond me. Gaffer has a different approach, he’s sticking to it, and there are cornerstone pieces on this team that indicates his approach is working. This team continues to slowly march upward in the ranks year after year.
•08. Warner’s Brothers - Dalej42
2022: 79.4
2021: 83.1, 3rd; 2020: 76.0, 7th; 2019: 63.8, 7th; 2018: 70.5, 12th
A truly unlucky hand forces a contender to wait for another round
QB Strength: 1st
Not much to say about a combo of Dak and Jalen Hurts. There’s a chance Hurts doesn’t do enough this year on a loaded roster to keep his job, especially since the Eagles have all the ammunition needed to buy a veteran QB or a top rookie next season. This was the gamble I took when I traded him away. Even if he doesn’t keep his job, Dak is stable and excellent in fantasy, and you can build around him. Taking Ridder, then, was smart. Ridder has a high upside and a path to a starting role by next year. He was very cheap. He’s an ideal reserve to hold
WR Strength: 11th
Dale just got unlucky here, and it causes his team to go from contender to middle of the pack. I think Dale recognized that and called an audible, and instead of trying to compete with one hand tied behind his back and a sprained foot, he pushed assets to next year. With Amari Cooper not having his QB for almost 75% of the season, and DeAndre Hopkins being suspended for a third of the season, Dale just doesn’t have much of a shot this year. Diontae Johnson is great, but his QB situation is murky. For as bad as Big Ben was, he locked onto Diontae every chance he got, and that guaranteed target share won’t be there anymore. Brandin Cooks is an amazing WR4 on this team. He is once again underrated, but I fear he won’t be enough to make up for everything else.
RB Strength: 10th
Obviously moving Derrick Henry hurts this rating, but I think it was the smart move. Henry alone may be enough to overcome the issues at WR, but even if that turned out to be true, is there enough to actually compete? If it isn’t an absolute yes, it makes a lot more sense to move Henry while he still has so much value as to net a 1st in a loaded draft next year.
I am actually surprised James Conner is still around and still fantasy relevant. He had an incredible season last year, but it’s one that is begging for regression. He was finally (relatively) healthy, and it showed. But TD-based value tends to fluctuate year to year, and a player who has missed 14 games in 4 seasons will probably not repeat his healthiest season in his career.
All of that goes equally for Damien Harris, who had an eerily similar season to Conner. Each played 15 games, each had 202 carries, each had 15 rushing TDs. There’s a lot of talk that Harris won’t get that share of the carries again, but it’s also possible that the guy who loved to rotate his backs and frustrate fantasy owners around the country is not in town anymore. Hard to really project Harris this year, and that uncertainty leads me to think Dale had the right idea with his tactical retreat in 2022.
TE Strength: 6th
This was a dumpster fire before Dale traded for Hockenson. Before he got hurt, Hockenson was a target magnet, and he was easily the 1st option in that passing offense. He’s still young, has the pedigree, and could very easily be the next generation’s Kittle. I don’t think the Logan Thomas experiment is going to yield results, but now it doesn’t have to.
Youth: 5th
This is absolutely driven by the QB. However, if Damien Harris holds his job, Tony Pollard finds a job, and Diontae Johnson maintains his mind meld with his QB, there’s still a lot to like on this team. I don’t know that I would consider a team with Conner, Amari Cooper, Brandin Cooks, and DeAndre Hopkins a middle-of-the-road team in terms of future value, but the cupboard isn’t bare.
•07. Nine Inch Neils - RNATB
2022: 83.2
2021: 75.7, 8th; 2020: 72.0, 10th; 2019: 73.9, 7th; 2018: 73.3, 5th
Paper tigers, or paper… possums?
QB Strength: 5th
This team represents a clear tier jump in my mind from teams who probably can’t make the playoffs, to teams who can compete with a lot of luck. RNATB is convinced this team has a real shot, and it is easy to see why. Justin Herbert is in the conversation for the most valuable QB in dynasty. I’d take him first if we’re considering a guaranteed active league for 8+ years. He will give this team a relatively high floor, regardless of who else is on the roster.
If Herbert did go down, you can very easily play matchups between Matt Ryan and Wentz and count on an average fantasy finish at worst. I don’t know that a team with an extremely young, elite QB who doesn’t risk himself running needs to roster 3-5 QBs, but there they are.
WR Strength: 10th
Stefon Diggs carries this ranking single-handedly. Chris Godwin is really good, but he’s hurt and there hasn’t been any clarity about when he can be expected back. If it turns out that Godwin misses a lot of time, then this team’s hopes of contention were misguided. It looks like he will be back sooner rather than later, so the worry might be unfounded. Even then, how effective will he be at his specific role, coming off an ACL?
Even if Godwin is healthy, this team needs help. Olave is as day-one ready as any WR in this year’s class, so that was a fortunate get in the draft. Even so, he may be the third option on that team, and it represents a little too much risk to rely on for a contender.
Behind those 3 are Marvin Jones, Rondale Moore, and Mecole Hardman. No solid options there, so RNATB was extremely fortunate to have grabbed Isaiah McKenzie. My ranking system confers almost no value to him, but Yahoo’s projections are sky-high. The difference is the return yardage, which isn’t factored into my calculation, and which Yahoo thinks will be significant. If McKenzie really is a top 25 WR, then perhaps RNATB is going to be much more competitive than I thought. That may end up being the most impactful and important pick of our draft this year.
RB Strength: 3rd
Najee Harris and Leonard Fournette are both highly projected this season, so this is a strong ranking because of it. I’m not as convinced, especially in Fournette. Even if that doesn’t work out as planned, Cordarrelle Patterson still apparently has a leading role and was effective for the most part. He’s a fine flex start if that holds up. And Kareem Hunt as a 4th RB is either fantastic or wasteful or both. With the uncertainty around Fournette and Patterson’s role as the season goes on, I think Hunt will be important for this team.
TE Strength: 9th
This is very much a committee approach, and I think that can work. Between Noah Fant, Evan Engram, and David Njoku, one of those will turn into an every week start. I am guessing it won’t be Fant, who appears to not have a role nor a competent QB. I don’t think Engram can catch or play football well, so Njoku it is! Well, after week 12, maybe.
Youth: 6th
This is a really solid core. Herbert, Diggs, Najee is absolutely worthy of thinking you are a contender. Olave and Godwin gives RNATB a locked-in starting WR group for a few seasons. However, Diggs has been in the league for 7 years now, Patterson is ancient for a RB, and Fournette will show up to camp weighing anywhere between 220 and 320. This core is strong, but not set in stone.
•06. New York Fanboys - EllisDee
2022: 83.8
2021: 77.1, 6th; 2020: 78.4, 4th; 2019: 73.9, 6th; 2018: 66.8, 12th
This team is the Sistine Chapel because, boy, is that ceiling pretty
QB Strength: 11th
There are a few teams in this league that need luck two ways to win: they need their own team to get lucky, and they need a better team ahead of them to get unlucky. There are a few teams that need an absence of luck to win: as long as nothing goes wrong, they are golden. This team just needs a little luck in one way: if Ellis’s own players just hit their own ceilings, very few teams could compete.
Before we get to anything else, this team’s QB situation was going to hold it back and prevent it from ever going anywhere. Trading for Aaron Rodgers, even older and perhaps having the worst weapons of his career, was an absolutely critical move. If everything else breaks right, that may have changed the course of the season for this league.
I think Baker is still a good QB, and he will turn it around. Even then, he’s not good enough to be the main QB for a contender, so trading for Rodgers was necessary. I don’t think Daniel Jones is worth rostering.
WR Strength: 7th
If you scour the internet for sleeper WRs, or breakout WRs, you’ll come across this team’s top 3 WRs on just about every list. In most cases, two of the three probably show up. This is where the luck needs to come in. If all 3 actually do break out, DJ Moore scores touchdowns, Pittman becomes a WR1, and Hollywood rekindles his chemistry with his college QB, this team will go very far. If even one of them doesn’t hit their ceiling, or one gets hurt for an extended period, this team will struggle. There isn’t a lot of depth here. Good players, some promise, absolutely. But dependable starters for this season? Lacking.
RB Strength: 9th
Well, Joe Mixon finally broke out right after I traded him. The curse continues. There is some talk that Mixon’s role will change just enough, and the offense in general change just enough, that he can’t match his 2021. All he has to do is come close, because if Saquon actually is back, this is an elite duo. I believe in Saquon’s talent. He didn’t look right last year, and that leads me to believe the injury was actually responsible for his disappointing season. Again, some luck changes the entire complexion of this team’s chances.
But the same caveat applies here. There’s no depth behind those guys, and Saquon hasn’t been healthy. Mixon has struggled with injuries in the past, too. It wouldn’t take much for this elite duo to be pretty disappointing, and there isn’t anyone on the bench you can trust to start for a month. Very boomy, very bust…y. Nice
TE Strength: 1st
Travis Kelce and a warm body is top 3, so it goes. Age will eventually catch up to Kelce, and I think the writing is on the wall. His snap % has steadily decreased every year over the last 3 or 4 seasons. His role in that offense was a critical one - take advantage of the space opened up by Tyreek Hill. That will have to change because there won’t be as much space now. Kelce is good enough to be fine, but I think his opportunities will continue to decrease and the value of those opportunities that remain will be diminished. I don’t think he is a top 3 TE this year. If this team was a locked-in contender, keeping him makes sense. Sure, I can understand being so thrilled with a player that he will retire on your team. I sense Kelce is that player for this team. But shipping him off makes too much sense if the first month of the season doesn’t go well.
Youth: 12th
This is the Tom Brady effect. QBs who are projected to age out of the league have no future value in the ranking, and even though Rodgers could play for years yet, the ranking suffers for that uncertainty. Otherwise, the WRs are all young and promising. The RBs aren’t old, but they are nearing their peaks, which makes their future values a little depressed. Kelce is ancient, and this team is probably going to have to rely on one too many older veterans at flex this season. I don’t know that 12th is completely fair, but this team has the look of one that is a year or two away from needing a complete rebuild.
•05. Exploding Pancakes - SenorBeef
2022: 85.9
2021: 80.7, 4th; 2020: 75.4, 8th; 2019: 73.4, 8th; 2018: 74.5, 4th
No one has ever gone back to back, but will the champs even get the chance to try?
QB Strength: 3rd
Josh Allen is #1, no doubt. This ranking provides a good example that this system surely overvalues the bench/depth. Still, 3rd is no weakness, and if Allen stays healthy and the offense doesn’t change too much from losing the OC, Beef is ceding no advantage to the rest of the league. So much of what makes Allen so dominant is his running, and that will eventually taper off, but the passing has come along so far that it won’t matter. Beef is set here for a decade.
WR Strength: 4th
A lot of the players here are projected to improve significantly from last season, and I think this ranking already has that improvement baked in as though it is a foregone conclusion. Deebo was outstanding last year, and though I’ve already said he probably can’t repeat his otherwordly efficiency, he doesn’t need to in order to be a WR1. And unlike other WRs, his rushing floor makes him the most reliable fantasy WR in the league. It seems nearly impossible to defensively scheme him completely out of the game, so he may be more matchup proof than anyone. He will hurt you either rushing or receiving, take your pick.
Everyone expects Rashod Bateman to break out as the center of this passing game. I’m not so sure. He would, at best, be 2nd in targets, and the offense might change enough that there just aren’t enough targets for him to be a reliable WR2. Last year, with Baltimore forced to throw by necessity, Bateman still averaged only about 6 targets a game. This year, with a renewed focus on the ground, how many more can he get? 7 a game? 8? I think he will have a really hard time finishing as a WR2 unless he sees 8 or more a game, and I don’t know that Baltimore can provide enough value in those targets anyway. Bateman is solid, unspectacular, and reliable. I don’t know that he can generate the big plays that Hollywood could, and Mark Andrews is too good in the red zone to ignore. How much can he do with his opportunity between the 20s without Hollywood’s speed?
Everyone expects Allen Robinson to have a renaissance in Los Angeles, and that one seems obvious to me. The projection is already treating him as prime Robert Woods, so I don’t know that there is much room left to go up from there. That top 3 is absolutely capable of a championship, though, without much help.
I don’t think this team will ever need to start 4 WRs, which is a good thing. There isn’t anything left with much upside outside of those top 3. Odell is hurt and nobody wants him until he proves he’s healthy. Maybe he’s a prime stretch run reinforcement. I doubt it. Tyler Lockett doesn’t have a QB with super powers anymore, and DJ Chark is a major question chark. I really like Jahan Dotson, but his situation could be better, and he’s a rookie. Still, that was a very good pick as this team was one young WR short for the future.
RB Strength: 5th
There has been a little bit of a debate in fantasy circles about whether consistency is actually good. Can you win a title if you got to write in 110-120 points every single week, without fail? For a long time, I think most analysts thought consistency was best. Recently people have turned to recognizing that it takes outlier, explosive weeks to actually win in the playoffs, and that your winning percentage in the regular season doesn’t matter if your championship percentage goes up. In my own anecdotal experience, this has been the case.
This team is built around that older train of thought, relying on consistent, high-floor players. Deebo was incredible last year, but he scored over 25 points as often as he scored under 10, and never above 35 in any single game. So, too, goes Nick Chubb. Uber-consistent and reliable, but without the passing game work, his ceiling is capped. He bumps right up against that ceiling every year, but never scores over 25. He’s the definition of a back-end RB1, and a player I’d rather have as a RB2 (greedy as though that may be).
Between J.K. Dobbins and David Montgomery, there is a stable RB2. I don’t think it will be Dobbins early on, and this team has to hope it can tread water until he comes along and gets into his game shape. There is a really good chance Dobbins can recover and shape up into a league winner in the back half. At some point Montgomery has to play down to his talent and situation, and I can’t believe he has another RB2 season ahead of him. He has the opportunity, but he’s so lackluster, and his team is so abysmal (especially at the O-Line), that I don’t see him living up to his projection. Fortunately, Rhamondre Stevenson might exceed his. Good thing, too, because if this team can’t field 3 RBs, it is in a lot of trouble.
TE Strength: 2nd
Kyle Pitts and a warm body is top 3, so it goes. Pitts had perhaps the best rookie TE season ever, and it was objectively disappointing. That is scary. Even scarier, he is going to force a reckoning on Yahoo and fantasy football in general. There is just no way to classify him as a TE. If other players have had their positional eligibility switched based on where they actually play, why wouldn’t his? And if Pitts is switched to a WR, where does that line of dominoes stop? A significant number of TEs line up and play like Pitts does, including most of the valuable ones. Yahoo has punted on this house of cards, and I don’t know when they will be forced to change. I can imagine Beef being very upset if Pitts is moved to WR where he belongs. That change would have a cascading, critical impact on almost every roster in the league, so I can understand not wanting to make it as a fantasy sports provider site. When his contract comes up, it will be fascinating to see if fantasy follows how he is paid, because he won’t be paid as a TE.
Youth: 4th
This core is intact and the window is wide open. This team could set their starting lineup today and go AFK, still competing for the playoffs for a couple years regardless.
However, it was fairly obvious that Beef took advantage of some extreme fortune to win last season. The highest scoring team didn’t make the playoffs. The best roster was (again) riddled with injuries and limped into the playoffs with a losing record promptly getting cut down. 103 points in the Semifinal round is lower than anyone else has ever scored and advanced, by a fair margin. Then, to have your highest scoring week just so happen in the championship? One of the luckiest seasons we’ll ever see.
Where this team falls short of the top 4 teams is in the height of its ceiling outcomes. Josh Allen can carry a lot of weight on his own, and perhaps Pitts turns into that game-wrecking TE like Gronk was in his prime. Outside of those two, there is very little chance of anyone on this roster scoring 40+ and winning a week by themselves. It can work great, see last year, but it takes an extreme amount of fortune.
•4. No Use For a Name - RetroVertigo
2022: 86.6
2021: 80.3, 5th; 2020: 78.3, 5th; 2019: 75.0, 5th; 2018: 77.5, 2nd
The (RB) king is dead. Long live the new (WR) king.
QB Strength: 4th
If I had done these reviews from year 1, I would absolutely have said that you can’t count on Tom Brady in a dynasty league much longer. That was 14 years ago, and here we are. There’s absolutely no reason he can’t play until he is 50, and I am genuinely rooting for him to do so. It would be such an outrageous feat, in this sport of them all, and I pray it happens. Well, pray is too strong. I really want.
Once again, I would say here, “Hey, do you want to rely on Kirk Cousins and Tua next year when Tom Brady retires?” Now, I am not sure planning for his retirement makes sense. If it comes, deal with it on the fly. Until then, don’t waste resources drafting Jordan Loves
WR Strength: 2nd
But, Ja’Marr Chase and CeeDee Lamb! How could that be 2nd?? Good question! Even as a top 2, Chase and Lamb project to be 2nd strongest. And frankly, after those two I’m not sure how this ranking is as high as it is. Courtland Sutton is a potential breakout. He has WR1 upside and may now have the perfect QB for him. But everyone knows that, and that’s reflected in his projection. Absolutely everyone thinks Sutton is the next in line for the DK role. So, that top 3 is outstanding.
But, where this team historically relied on it’s top 3 RBs to carry them, they no longer have that luxury. Now, this team will likely need to start 4 WRs every week. The problem is that 4th WR, and for this ranking, that there is basically no 5th WR. You can make a case Allen Lazard is in line to explode this year. It’s an easy case to make. You can also make the case that he isn’t actually good, and he’s had chances aplenty and never done anything to deserve the current opportunity. I think this team will go as far as Allen Lazard alone takes them? Jordan Peele would have a field day with that frightening proposition.
RB Strength: 6th
Death, taxes, Dalvin Cook and Ezekiel Elliott. The hourglass is running thin, but still time enough remains. No longer can this team rely on Melvin Gordon. I think this is the last year for Ezekiel Elliott as a locked-in starter, as well. Retro patiently, wisely, skillfully rebuilt the core of his team around his new WRs, so now comes the dance of filling in RBs around them to stay relevant. I would argue it is much easier to find undervalued gems at WR to support elite RBs, than it is to play zero-RB in this league. Retro did a fine job staying competitive all these years without much at WR, and I think it will take twice as much work and skill to do so at RB instead.
Aside from the aforementioned, Michael Carter is good and just got hamstrung by a far better talent and prospect. Tyler Allgeier is a low-key excellent draft pick. He’s exactly the type of player this team will need over the next few years because the WRs are too good to let this team bottom out, and Allgeier can steal a full-time role that this team desperately needs with a relatively low cost. If Retro can get away without having to make a major move next season at his RB2, he’s golden.
TE Strength: 11th
Lots of analysts love Albert O. I don’t know that there is any evidence Russell Wilson has ever thrown a pass to a TE in his career. Even one. No footage exists, surely.
Isaiah Likely is a really fun story and an interesting player. I suspect he has more value to me specifically than to this team, but he was a fine draft pick. This ranking seems fair, and it also shows how a team can be competitive without a top TE in this league.
Youth: 11th
The Tom Brady effect, everybody. Hard to project he has any value next season, hard to believe he doesn’t. If you throw Tua in there instead, this ranking would be 5th in the league. Yes, the RBs need an overhaul. But Retro is really deft at letting the draft come to him and just taking the best players. Now the WRs are the stars, and they are plenty good enough to build around and stay competitive. It has been a long time since this team wasn’t competitive from week 1 on, so there’s no reason to think it will change any time soon. It will be interesting to see if Retro pivots at all now that two position groups are coming due for an overhaul at once.
•03. Moridwon - Hamlet
2022: 88.8
2021: 83.6, 2nd; 2020: 85.5, 1st; 2019: 85.7, 2nd; 2018: 69.9, 8th
Always good, always dangerous. It turns out this year also counts as being part of “always.”
QB Strength: 8th
With Mahomes and Burrow, this would have been 1st for as long as both were in the league. Hamlet made a pretty stunning trade to ship off Burrow and pick up an elite RB prospect, and that type of deal is a clear win for the cost (regardless of whether the RB pans out). Mahomes is still around, and maybe he doesn’t have a 50 TD ceiling without Tyreek Hill, but I would trust him to figure it out over time. This ranking is too low compared to how this position will finish for this team by year’s end.
WR Strength: 3rd
3rd is a good ranking, clearly. If you look at the players on the roster, I think 3rd is too high; however, at the same time, it wouldn’t take a whole lot for this to be way too low.
This is such a deep group it’s hard to know where to start. Keenan Allen is probably the #1 here, but Mike Williams has something to say about it. Keenan is old, but he is showing no signs of slowing down. He may dip slightly as Mike Williams ascends, but on balance those two will come out about where they are projected. I don’t know that they are both good enough to be a 1-2 for a champion, but they may not need to be.
Michael Thomas is baffling. Is he healthy? Does he care about football still? I know Jameis isn’t Brees, but I can’t imagine a healthy Michael Thomas is suddenly not a WR1/2. I think his projection is too low, and he may end up being the WR1 on this team after all. The championship this year will almost certainly be influenced by what Thomas shows this season. If he is back to his WR1 overall days, Hamlet has no real flaws on this team. If Thomas doesn’t, Hamlet is showing up to the gunfight short of ammo
Then there is Gabriel Davis, everyone’s pre-breakout confirmed breakout. Lock it in, it’s already done. He had one incredible game so now he’s definitely going to be a top 20 WR. To be fair, I think he’s good. I just think maybe we should see it happen consistently before we treat him as a WR2. His ADP in redraft is insane, for that reason. Even if he isn’t ready to reach that ceiling, there is still a ton of high level depth here to weather the (imaginary) injury bug
RB Strength: 2nd
I still can’t believe I had to drop Ekeler. I can’t wait for this guy to retire so I can stop beating myself up over messing that up. He’ll be elite for another season, though even he wants to see his usage scaled back. Pair him with Javonte Williams and that is a remarkably strong 1-2. Again, Ekeler may come down a bit and Javonte up a bit, but on balance they should both finish in the top 12. You’d think that there would be a problem coming up as Ekeler starts to get older, but Hamlet wisely snatched up Breece Hall to give him an elite potential duo for the next 5-7 years. Fantastic management at this spot.
TE Strength: 5th
Darren Waller is excellent. Still, I wonder if he might be the odd man out in Vegas. I can’t imagine he, Renfrow, and Davante Adams can all reach their ceiling this year. Waller can’t do what Renfrow does, but Davante can do what Waller does. If Waller is relegated to third or fourth in line, there isn’t a ton of help in reserve because Gesicki DEFINITELY got shoved down the pecking order. I don’t imagine this will be a weakness for this team, but it may not be a strength anymore.
Youth: 3rd
For a while, I wondered if Hamlet didn’t do enough to take advantage of a strong roster and a contending window. He made some moves, but his style seemed to be to fold, fold, fold until he had pocket aces and pounced. But his move for Breece Hall confirms he just picks his spots. This approach is clearly working. In every case where Hamlet has a potential age issue, there is a ready-made replacement in reserve. This is a very deep roster that won’t need much help to make another deep run this season. There is no imaginable way he falls out of the top 4 next year, either. Just exceptional work all around.
•02. Peteys - PeteyPart2
2022: 92.2
2021: 75.9, 7th; 2020: 76.7, 6th; 2019: 69.9, 10th; 2018: 71.6, 6th
This team would be a juggernaut in any other year.
QB Strength: 2nd
No team has hit 90 in the preseason before. During the season, yes, but not beforehand. In any other year, this team would be far and away the best team in the league with a rating of 92.2 in these reviews.
Lamar Jackson has the ultimate cheat code. He just has to stay healthy. He doesn’t even need a particularly good offense to be a top QB with his unprecedented rushing. Trey Lance has the potential to be every bit as good as Lamar if he can put it together. Early results have been mixed, but he has a lot of time to make it happen. This team should be pounding the table for a superflex conversation, because they are stacked.
WR Strength: 6th
I was surprised by this ranking until I realized it is essentially for 3 players. There isn’t really a warm body that Peteys can prop up and start in the event of an injury. It’s the most top-heavy WR corps I’ve ever seen.
Kupp and Jefferson are at least 20% better than the next best top 2. Those two with rotating waiver trash at WR3 and WR4 could be enough for a top-3 finish from the WR position this year. I think that may be necessary because, while DK Metcalf is an outstanding young dynasty asset, there is actually nothing behind him. Who is the best option between Sammy Watkins, Nelson Agholor, Byron Pringle, and Kyle Philips? I’m guessing Philips, but that is rough. and this ranking counts two of them!
RB Strength: 7th
On paper you can look at Aaron Jones and Josh Jacobs and think you have a top-4 duo. Look closer, and there is a lot of talk that Jacobs won’t last the year as the starter, and the team certainly doesn’t seem to want him there. I love Aaron Jones, but the same can be said about his role diminishing as AJ Dillon’s increases. It is fortunate, then, to have said AJ Dillon. There is precedent of a team having two top end RBs, and I predict Peteys will be forced to start Jones and Dillon more often than not. that can work if the matchups are good. If he has to do so even on the bad matchups, he might be giving up just enough to hurt his playoff chances.
If Jacobs does tumble down the depth chart, only Nyheim Hines is available to save this team. He pretty much saved my team when I won the championship, so it can be done. It’s a surprising lack of depth, but not for lack of trying. Ronald Jones was a good gamble, but he couldn’t earn a starting role in free agency. Myles Gaskin was usurped by an eager GM. Mark Ingram… well, he might still have a valuable role. He’s getting up there, but he may squeeze out on more useful season just as this team may need it most.
TE Strength: 3rd
I remembered George Kittle getting hurt last season and assumed he missed like 6 to 8 games. I was surprised to see he turned in yet another quality season. He and Zach Ertz are both older, but they can both be counted on for reliable, steady production all season with Kittle probably still having an extra gear that few other TEs can match. I don’t know how much longer they will both last, but for this season they are a fantastic pairing.
Youth: 2nd
There’s so much to like on this team that it is easy to overlook the glaring lack of depth. In some places, this ranking looks questionable. Aaron Jones is turning 28. Cooper Kupp is already 29. George Kittle is almost 29. But even those elder stars have relatively little wear as none of them have even 6 years in the league. What will be interesting is seeing how RePeteys interprets the age of the roster and manages the team in the next few years. You can argue it is close to time to consolidate around Lamar, Jefferson, and AJ Dillon. Break the rest down and conduct a rolling rebuild. You can also argue this team is a clear contender and should be buying in this season. Either way, this is a the last season where a decision can be kicked down the road.
•01. HungryHungryHaruspex - Jules_Andre
2022: 99.6
2021: 89.0, 1st; 2020: 84.6, 2nd; 2019: 87.5, 1st; 2018: 77.3, 3rd
No need to count, just push all the chips to the center. I’m all in.
QB Strength: 6th
Wilson and Carr are pretty much the ideal pairing for the “wait on QB” strategy in redraft leagues. Both will have to sling it around in that division to keep pace. Both should see fair improvements over their seasons from 2021, and between the two there should be an above average start each week. Wilson is higher projected, but it may be a better strategy to start Carr and stack with Davante Adams.
Neither will threaten the top 5 at the position, but Deshaun Watson easily could once he is back from his woefully short suspension. I don’t want to root for the guy, but I’ve always had a different view of fantasy sports than other people have. I don’t get so attached to players, which is why I can trade them so easily, because to me they are letters and numbers on a spreadsheet. But in writing a review like this, it changes a little. I have to dig deeper, and I don’t much care to. I won’t ever watch him play when given an alternative. So I won’t sing Watson’s praises here. I’ll leave it at this: He’s a top 5 talent and has top 5 upside every season. He’s young.
WR Strength: 1st
This group is impossibly deep, and honestly that may be a flaw in my management. I don’t normally like to concentrate so much value on the bench where it can’t help me. My strategy has always been to skew younger, stockpile young assets and keep pace with the rest of the league while staying younger and having more upside. This year, I’m changing gears. I put effort into consolidating my depth into upgrades for starters. Davante Adams for Tee Higgins is a bad trade in dynasty. But as a contender, for this year and next, it’s a clear upgrade and it gives me a critical stack as an ace up my sleeve.
Tyreek Hill proved last year he can win in other ways than just outrunning everyone, so the criticism that Tua can’t utilize him doesn’t pass scrutiny. He’s still going to be a target monster with the relatively rare mega-play upside that most target hogs lack. AJ Brown is an absurd 3rd WR, and very few people recognize how critical he will be to his new offense. Yes, Brown good, and more good is more better. But Hurts needs someone like him. Hurts was never good at taking the layups and moving the chains, and Brown makes layups easy. He turns slants into house calls. Everything becomes easier when the low-risk high-percentage catch suddenly has game-breaking touchdown upside. The entire passing offense will be built around him. I’m very confident he can finish in the top 8 this year, barring injury.
Behind them is Jaylen Waddle (23 years old), who finished 10th last year. Jerry Jeudy (23) has the best QB he’s ever had, and Russell has never had someone who can get open like Jeudy can. DeVonta Smith (23) immediately balled out as a rookie and proved that his elite skills in college seamlessly translated to the pros. He’s hurt by AJ Brown coming in, but the Slim Reaper’s future is blinding.
If you’ll pardon me the indulgence, I want to talk about Elijah Moore (22). He generated more hype in the preseason last year than I think I’ve ever seen. And you can look at his season stats and think he was a disappointment. He started slowly, and he got hurt right as he caught fire at the end of the year. The thing is, he’s so good it’s actually goofy. He has a turbo button on the field that almost nobody has. His footwork is outstanding, his routes are crisp, his releases are sharp. He beats people in the slot, outside on the boundary, deep, shallow, in traffic, etc. He scored on a run, on short passes, on bombs. He had a six-week stretch where he caught 34 passes for 459 yards and 5 TDs despite catching passes from Joe Flacco, Mike White, and Josh Johnson. He’s the perfect buy-low, and I’m shocked none of you gave me the chance to decline your offer with disgust.
I drafted Jameson Williams (21).
RB Strength: 1st
Please. Please fucking let this work, God. I don’t ask for much. I’ll go to church, I swear. Just give me 16 games for McCaffrey and Henry, and I’ll vote for a Republican. Okay, actually I’ll need 17 healthy games for that, but I’ll probably do it.
Having these three is like daydreaming about the lottery. The riches, the potential, the fun every Sunday holds if three players combined for 65-75 points a week for me. And then the reverie ends, two of them are hurt, life still sucks, and Sunday is for heavy drinking and early bedtimes.
CMC has averaged over 22 fantasy points per game since becoming a full-time starter. Over the last two seasons, Derrick Henry has averaged over 21. Kamara has averaged over 19.6 during that span. Please, God.
Yeah, it won’t happen. At some point, Miles Sanders will probably see a start or two or eight. He can manage well enough in that role, and as a 4th RB he’s ideal. With the Eagles outstanding O-Line and a little positive regression, he could easily outproduce the unanimous hate for him.
Anyway, the move for Henry opened a concrete window as the favorite to win it all, but it’s a short window. I think it’s reasonable that I’ll get 2 years with this trio. With luck, I can get 3 without much decline. The choice then becomes a hard rebuild or a rolling rebuild. I’m really drawn to a hard rebuild, but it’s so tough to stomach in the midst of it.
TE Strength: 1st
Mark Andrews and a warm body is top 3, so it g… Wait, I don’t have a warm body? Like, literally there isn’t anything with a pulse? Fine.
TE Strength: 10th
It was 1st with Hockenson by a mile. With Andrews and a waiver JAG for depth, it would be 2nd or 3rd.
Andrews becomes pretty critical to this team with the move to grab Jameson Williams. Given that I am stacked at WR as it is, that move may have been a mistake. It was an upside play, as Jameson’s upside is sky-high and Hockenson’s is relatively limited. If Andrews doesn’t repeat his outstanding 2021, this team’s margin above #2 shrinks significantly. If Andrews misses a lot of time, the margin disappears entirely. Mark Andrews is all that prevents this team from being a boring, ho-hum contender
Youth: 1st
I didn’t really buy this ranking, so I had to double check it. The margin over the #2 team is the equivalent of about 10 fantasy points over 4 years, so it is miniscule to meaningless. From what I see, the ranking doesn’t penalize CMC and Henry enough for being older RBs, nor Adams and Tyreek for their age. That, along with how it overrates QBs, proves to me that this metric mostly worthless. If it wasn’t auto-calculated, I wouldn’t keep including it.
However, Adams has the type of game that should last to age 32 or so without significant decline, and there is plenty of precedent for that kind of graceful aging among elite WRs who don’t rely purely on speed. Tyreek probably won’t do that. But, if there is any position I am well-suited to withstand aging, it is at WR. The cliff is coming at RB, and I’ll need to decide exactly how I want to handle that. I have a couple years.
Dawson Knox is actually not a warm body. He just resigned for a top 5 TE contract for 4 years and he’s attached to one of the best offenses in the league. He’s coming into his 4th year (age 25) and that’s when TEs start to break out. I actually think there’s a decent chance he’s a top 10 dynasty TE going forward. Also Harrison Bryant is actually going to be pretty good, although his situation will take a few years to get good. I think I’m #1 in TE strength by a decent margin.
I think there’s a very low risk of this if he remains listed as a TE on the depth chart. He does line up as a TE at least a third of the time, and there are a few guys who have done that for years who yahoo still classifies as TE. Yahoo would play it safe by just listing him however he’s listed on his team’s roster, to do otherwise is to invite a lot of complaint and anger from owners.
It’s not just yahoo, I’m not sure any of the fantasy services have ever switched a player designated by his team as TE into WR. I can only think of Marques Colston who started as WR/TE as a rookie, but there was doubt in his rookie year whether or not he was actually drafted to be TE, but no case of a player who is designated TE by their team getting switched to WR based on usage pattern. It is very unlikely.
Your assessment of my team is actually really good and accurate. I thought I’d probably make it to 3rd rather than 5th though.
Thanks for the reviews, I look forward to them every year.
Jimmy Graham was never actually a TE but has been listed as one for his whole career.
OBJ is coming off a late-season ACL tear. There was no reason for cap-strapped LA to re-sign him in the offseason, as he won’t be available until close to the playoffs anyway.
I thought the Jimmy Graham ruling back in 2013/14 put this to bed or at least provided a standard for what made a TE an actual TE.