Trade to announce.
Ides of Martz receives 1.8 and Kendrick Bourne, WR NE.
Nine Inch Neils receives 2.1 and Dameon Pierce RB, Hou.
I’ll post the pick shortly.
LFG.
Pick 1.08 - Caleb Williams, QB, CHI
@SenorBeef is on the clock.
1.01 Omni - Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, ARI
1.02 Mundi - Malik Nabers, WR, NYG
1.03 Gaffer - Jonathon Brooks, RB, CAR
1.04 Peteys - Rome Odunze, WR, CHI
1.05 Retro - Troy Benson, RB, ARI
1.06 dale - Brock Bowers, TE, LV
1.07 Justin - Xavier Worthy, WR, KC
1.08 Omni - Caleb Williams, QB, CHI
1.09 Beef -
1.10 Ellis -
1.11 Omni -
1.12 Hamlet -
Remainder of the Draft
2.01 RNATB -
2.02 Mundi -
2.03 Gaffer -
2.04 Peteys -
2.05 Omni -
2.06 dale -
2.07 Justin -
2.08 RNATB -
2.09 Beef -
2.10 Ellis -
2.11 Peteys -
2.12 Hamlet -
3.01 Omni -
3.02 Mundi -
3.03 Gaffer -
3.04 Peteys -
3.05 Retro -
3.06 dale -
3.07 Justin -
3.08 RNATB -
3.09 Beef -
3.10 Ellis -
3.11 Jules -
3.12 Hamlet -
4.01 Omni -
4.02 Mundi -
4.03 Gaffer -
4.04 Peteys -
4.05 Retro -
4.08 RNATB -
4.09 Beef -
4.11 Jules -
4.12 Hamlet -
5.01 Omni -
5.02 Mundi -
5.03 Gaffer -
5.04 Peteys -
5.11 Jules -
5.12 Hamlet -
6.01 Jules -
6.03 Gaffer -
6.12 Hamlet -
7.01 Retro -
Draft results are updated and reflect that trade. Omni’s pick simplified my decision (I was seriously considering Williams even though he’d be benched most of the time) but I’m still doing some last minute video watching between Brian Thomas, Keon Coleman, Xavier Leggett, and Ladd McConkey so I’ll be a bit.
Watch the Ladd McConkey blocking tapes if you want a good time.
McConkey feels like a target share monster this year, but I will say that Brian Thomas looks like the real deal every time I see him.
An I would love to rib @Omniscient for a homer pick - but that feels like a perfect time for Williams.
1.09 Brian Thomas Jr, WR, JAX
@EllisDee is up.
I wanted to make the Josh Allen → Keon Coleman stack work. There’s hardly anyone left in Buffalo to catch passes and he’s going to force them on him. And I very much enjoyed the old days with my Rogers to Nelson stack. But watching Keon’s college film, the dude was never more than a foot away from the defender all season. They were right up all in his grill. Now he made a lot of great contested catches anyway, and separation is probably overrated in the NFL because there are other ways to win the battle, but he had shockingly low separation and I’m not sure he can manhandle NFL DBs to make consistent contested catches like that. If he can, he’ll be late-career Anquan Bolden, but there aren’t a lot of those.
McConkey I like - I like the agility and the energy he plays with and just his general style. I think he has a pretty decent floor. But he never had good production in college and I see limited upside. Maybe he could be Cooper Kupp, but he feels more like a 800/6 guy to me.
Brian Thomas Jr. is pretty much a prototypical X. Big, super fast. I think I read top 1% athletic score. LSU’s passing game limited the routes he’d run – it doesn’t mean he can’t run other routes, but he was never required to. But it probably limits his usage right out the gate as he has to learn a bigger route tree. But he just blows past defenders in the vertical, and that will also open up space on things like hitches. He had Nabers on the other side of him which always makes you wonder if he’d have done as well facing the best the opponent’s defense has to offer. And I don’t like how often he wants to body catch. He waits for the ball to get into his body instead of snatching it out of the air at the high point too often. He has the big body and strength to be able to out-fight defenders better than he does, but he’s not nearly as good as Coleman at doing that, instead preferring to rely on his speed to separate and then make some catches that must aggravate the shit out of his WR coaches. That said, he does have a decent amount of contested catches and can use his hands when he needs to. I just hope that can be improved in the NFL.
Brian Thomas was more or less the consensus (most sources had him at the #4 WR). His situation isn’t quite as good as McConkey or Coleman in the short term where they’re basically the only guys in their WR room and they’re going to get force fed, but it’s not that hard to outshine Gabe Davis/Christian Kirk/Evan Engram. And Taylor Lawrence loves throwing dragons on go routes. I expect Thomas to have 40+ yard TDs at least 3 or 4 times a season.
Clearly I need a QB. For the first time possibly ever, I could take a QB in the first round not as a super reach, but as a value pick. Picking 8th overall guy (on my board, at least) 10th? Hell yeah!
But I don’t like Heisman winners in the NFL in general. In fantasy I like them even less, having drafted both Mariota and Mayfield as brutal first-round reaches. I also don’t love running QBs who never slide, hold the ball too long causing a million sacks, and are thin. That just doesn’t seem like a winning combo to me.
Then there’s the next RB on the board, who would be a reach here. He’s the handcuff behind Kylen Williams who just had a breakout season last year. Except, Williams just got put on punt returner duty. That does not bode well for his job security as a feature back. I think Corum takes his starting job sometime this season and doesn’t look back. And I have more faith in the Rams running game than the Washington passing game.
1.01 Omni - Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, ARI
1.02 Mundi - Malik Nabers, WR, NYG
1.03 Gaffer - Jonathon Brooks, RB, CAR
1.04 Peteys - Rome Odunze, WR, CHI
1.05 Retro - Trey Benson, RB, ARI
1.06 dale - Brock Bowers, TE, LV
1.07 Justin - Xavier Worthy, WR, KC
1.08 Omni - Caleb Williams, QB, CHI
1.09 Beef - Brian Thomas Jr., WR, JAC
1.10 Ellis - Blake Corum, RB, LAR
1.11 Omni -
1.12 Hamlet -
2.01 RNATB -
2.02 Mundi -
2.03 Gaffer -
2.04 Peteys -
2.05 Omni -
2.06 dale -
2.07 Justin -
2.08 RNATB -
2.09 Beef -
2.10 Ellis -
2.11 Peteys -
2.12 Hamlet -
Remaining Rounds
3.01 Omni -
3.02 Mundi -
3.03 Gaffer -
3.04 Peteys -
3.05 Retro -
3.06 dale -
3.07 Justin -
3.08 RNATB -
3.09 Beef -
3.10 Ellis -
3.11 Jules -
3.12 Hamlet -
4.01 Omni -
4.02 Mundi -
4.03 Gaffer -
4.04 Peteys -
4.05 Retro -
4.08 RNATB -
4.09 Beef -
4.11 Jules -
4.12 Hamlet -
5.01 Omni -
5.02 Mundi -
5.03 Gaffer -
5.04 Peteys -
5.11 Jules -
5.12 Hamlet -
6.01 Jules -
6.03 Gaffer -
6.12 Hamlet -
7.01 Retro -
Wow, @Omniscient is on the clock again. Three first rounders, nice.
That’s a bit of a shocker. I was pretty sure you were going QB for obvious reasons. I thought that was a bit of a reach by the charts but fantasypros has him going #12 so I guess not.
I do wonder sometimes if other dynasty leagues draft RBs as high as we do. I mean, the RB scarcity is real, so I would think they would, but after all these years you would then think the rankings would reflect that, and they don’t. There are hardly any RBs in the top 15 this year.
I wonder if this is the first time anyone has ever had 3 first rounders. I’m guessing yes, but we’ve been around for a long time so I’m not sure. Speaking of which - part of my decision as to which WR to go with had to do with if they were 21, 22, or 23, and I thought… that really only matters if we’re going to still be doing this in a decade or longer. You guys in for another 16 years? Why not. Let’s see if we can make this the longest running dynasty league in the world.
So I’ve been grinding on this pick for a bit now. I don’t love the available options. I was really hoping Thomas would be available here. So I’m going to break my strategy a bit.
Pick 1.11 - Jayden Daniels, QB, WAS
When you have the chance to leave a fantasy draft with the top 3 overall picks, you sort of have to do it.
Of course I have a dire situation at QB so I can justify taking 2, but I may end up seriously regretting this if Caleb is an absolute stud and Daniels never gets any run for me. That said, Daniels rushing ability could make him a fantasy stud even if he’s not the IRL QB that Caleb is.
Pretty much every chart I can find shows Daniels as the BPA here. I admit I didn’t love him as a prospect leading into the draft. This pick seems like it is a boom or bust selection, I guess I’ll have to pray I’m.not leaving the next Puka or Achane hanging on the board here.
@Hamlet is on the clock.
Yeah Corum is 14th on my board, with Coleman and Pearsall just ahead of him whereas FantasyPros have those guys right after him. So it definitely felt like a reach at 10 but not unreasonably so. I just felt too haunted by Mariota and Mayfield to trust another Heisman winner.
Ironically, part of my reasoning was that I could wait another year to address QB because worse comes to worst, Mayfield seems to be a good enough starter to get by with. He was the 11th best fantasy scoring QB in the league last year. Not a good starter, mind you, but 11th best is technically a starter in a 12-man league. But it took him 5 years before he cracked the top 12, and then just barely, so I wasn’t looking to relive that experience.
I had originally planned to draft a QB at 10, and felt it was unlikely Williams would still be available, but hadn’t looked very closely at Daniels until I was on the clock. Basically a Justin Fields / Daniel Jones type QB but taller and skinnier? And he hates sliding and also holds the ball too long? Yeah, that doesn’t sound like the recipe for long term fantasy performance.
Daniels may end up being great but I didn’t want to be the one counting on it. (I like him a lot as Omni’s backup for Caleb, though.)
It’ll be nice to have a go-to backup for bye weeks, at least. Also possible trade fodder down the road if both end up being good.
There probably were cheaper ways to get a backup. But then again, Caleb hasn’t proven anything yet. Two bites at the elite QB apple.
Tough to be a consistent contender in this league without one of the top guys.
I remember several years ago Jules pointed out that nobody had ever won this league without a top 10 scoring QB. Not sure if that still holds true, but I wouldn’t bet against it. So yeah, two bites at the QB apple after also getting the consensus #1 overall fantasy rookie looks like a solid play to me.
Aaron Rodgers and then Josh Allen has kept me in the running for most of my 16 years. It’s really valuable to have a bedrock at QB.
I couldn’t remember if there was a transitional year where I started someone between Rodgers and Allen so I went back to look. I did have to start Tannehill and maybe some other randoms after a Rodgers injury, but I think my planned starter at QB has only ever been those two guys for 16 years now and Allen could keep going for another decade. It could end up being that I start 2 players at one position for 25 years. Kind of nutty to think about.
I was kind of surprised at how many players I still have from my end of 2020 roster – Allen, Lockett, Deebo, Chubb, Montgomery, Dobbins, Chark and a few guys I just cut. Pretty similar to my 2019 roster, actually, where I did have both Rodgers and Allen. I probably have too little roster turnover and should make some more moves.
As a counter point, I’ve started luminaries like Andrew Luck, Blake Bortles, Matt Cassel, Mitch Trubisky, Justin Fields and Big Ben.
Ironically, I traded away a 34 year old Big Ben in an attempt to prepare for the future only to see him put up like 5 or 6 more top 5 seasons. Great stuff.
To me. Those Big Ben years were the only years I’ve had a good quarterback in the history of this league. And Ben did finish in the top 10 for me the year I won my championship.
I didn’t expect Daniels to go this early as we never draft more than one QB in our first round, but I can’t say he’s not worth the pick. But in any case, I’m not sold on anyone who was available at my pick (which is now Omni’s) moreso than anyone else, including Thomas. He’s a size/speed freak but he never saw double coverage in college thanks to Nabers. I suspect the Jags will trot him out in the X spot but just use him to tie up the other team’s #1 corner. He will only be thrown at a couple of times each game.
I also have a pathological aversion to slot receivers who are their teams’ #1 WRs, so while it makes tremendous sense for me to draft McConkey for the stack it just feels wrong.
I was high on Corum because the Rams seem to have absolutely no interest in having an RB start for more than one season. Remember Cam Akers? But as the nominal RB3 I probably should have guessed he’d be gone by now.
Seems a no-brainer:
1.12 Ladd McConkey, WR, Chargers.
As the owner of Kyren Williams, I had resigned myself to reaching for Blake Corum here since he is so much more valuable to me. But thankfully Ladd fell a few spots and I’m more than willing to take a shot on him here. Great route runner, with a very good QB, and very little competition for targets. Yes, please. I know I’ll be cursing Harbaugh and Roman’s names pretty much every week as they crush his value by running the ball 8,325 times a game and he’ll never be a 10+ TD receiver, but for a .5 PPR at the 12th pick, sure. Why not.
@Really_Not_All_That_Bright is up.