This also means that everyone who was unowned/undrafted is on a 2 day waiver period.
Other than two pauses, the draft moved really quickly and we finished well ahead of schedule. Well done everyone.
I think team by team reviews aren’t so interesting in a dynasty league where rosters don’t turn over that much. But maybe I’ll do these once every few years, I don’t know.
I’ll be using my own rating system to grade everyone’s rosters. This system uses projections from multiple sources, so none of these are based on my own personal opinions. I’ll be ranking the starters for this season, and rate each position group based on the strength of their maximum possible starters and one bench player. The number is an approximation of projected fantasy points over the season.
I’ll also be rating each team’s starters on youth, which is an estimation of fantasy points over the next four seasons. This factors in age-related decline based on the average time when players typically decline according to their position. If a team is older in the starting spots and younger on the bench, they might suffer in the rankings when no real problem exists. This is also heavily influenced by the youth of the QB, since they score so many fantasy points compared to the other positions.
**12. New York Fanboys - Ellis Dee (66.8) **
A near-miss playoff team last season that is in competition for the first pick in 2019. Expect a pm sometime around August 2019 about a draft day trade.
QB strength: 8th
Ellis had a really smart draft where he stayed patient and, aside from his first pick, just took the best value that fell to him in each spot. He did basically the opposite of what I did… which makes me realize I may have fucked up. Roesthlisberger still has a couple years of high production left, but behind that there was really nothing. Eli is done, and Mariota might be trash. It was very smart to draft Mayfield… but that was one hell of a reach. That was as bad as Trubisky last season, but at least Mayfield fantasy upside. Team fit is good, but the value wasn’t there. Which is fine, from time to time.
WR Strength: 11th
I like Jarvis Landry a lot, but behind that this team needs some real help. Funchess was nice last season and could still become a legit #1, but he’s a terrible route runner so I don’t see it. Crowder is just a guy, and Shepard might be the 4th option in the passing game now. Pettis was a smart pick though. The value was pretty fantastic. Relying on the rest of us to be idiots and pouncing on the obvious value that fell too far in the draft is a wise strategy.
RB Strength: 9th
I regret passing on McCaffrey for Mixon last season, even if I think Mixon will still become an RB1/RB2 in the next couple seasons. That said, Carolina is still trying to figure out what to do with him, so while his floor may be established, we don’t yet know exactly how good he can be. Behind that is Hyde, who has looked good and will probably outperform his projection. And then? Bilal Powell has been fine when he plays, but nobody wants to give him any run. Ronald Jones was a good value, but he has looked as bad as I can ever remember a highly drafted rookie looking in his first preseason. Very vulnerable, here.
TE Strength: 1st
This one is easy. I think my pair might be as good when Hunter Henry returns next season, but there’s no doubt this is the best top 2 in the league. It seems like so long ago that Kelce was someone I inherited.
Youth: 11th
This score is hurt by Roesthlisberger and Hyde, who are both old and on the way out. It was timely to pick up Mayfield and Jones as young replacements for next season and beyond.
11. Overly Sentimental - Overly Sentimental (67.3)
This team is a snake in the grass that could ambush anyone, held back by one critical flaw.
QB strength: 4th
Deshaun Watson has a very high score, and is a fantastic dynasty option. Goff is a great #2. I don’t think Watson is going to easily replicate what happened while he was healthy last season, but if he does, this is the #1 group by far.
WR Strength: 1st
The clear strength of this team, and the focus of his new owner’s draft. This is not only a strong group up top with Antonio and Davante Adams, but there is a ton of young depth with upside that isn’t factored into this rating. I imagine this ranking won’t change much for a long time.
RB Strength: 12th
Welp. This is what happens when you stack WRs 5-10 deep. It’s an interesting strategy to stack third down backs in a PPR league, but this team is going to need Kerryon Johnson to become a star, or this group is going to bring down the strength of this team for years.
TE Strength: 8th
Kittle was a wise choice in the draft, but if he doesn’t take the leap many are predicting, this could quickly turn into the worst group in the league.
Youth: 5th
The way the scoring works, if you have a young QB who is already projected to score a ton of fantasy points this coming seaosn, you’re going to do well in this metric (since QBs score so many points compared to other positions). That’s the case here. Even though Overly’s starters are by no means rookies, they all are young enough that his core should still be relevant for the next few years.
10. JB’s Gusterrhoids - Justin_Bailey (68.1)
This team is badly in need of a complete rebuild. I can give you my blueprint, but it will cost you $5. Or, say, an ancient, no-good, totally-not-worth-anything Larry Fitzgerald.
QB strength: 9th
Drew Brees is still a stud, and with him this team probably won’t be in the cellar. But the Saints are slowly transitioning to a running attack, so his production might rapidly decline through scheme and age. After Brees? God help this team. Dalton is trash. With Brees and nothing else, you’d think this team would have a small window to win a championship, but the rest of the roster isn’t strong enough to take advantage. Lots of work to be done on this roster.
WR Strength: 10th
Fitzgerald is still great, but this is probably his last season. This ranking doesn’t factor in that Edelman is suspended for four games, and that Jeffery is still hurt and is rumored to not be available for the first two weeks. The ranking is too high. DeSean can’t be counted on without Jameis, and wasn’t great even with him. Zay Jones had one of the worst rookie seasons I’ve ever seen for a higher pick. Things are really rough here.
RB Strength: 8th
This rank assumes Freeman is going to take the starting job soonish. This isn’t a bad group, but it’s a little vulnerable to bad matchups since it is going to rely on the Falcons’ pair.
TE Strength: 7th
Graham is fine, but there is concern that Rodgers just doesn’t give a shit about TEs. Hooper is a decent reserve, but might not be reliable unless he can make a jump this season. Hopefully Hurst recovers. This will be a stronger ranking next year for sure.
Youth: 12th
No surprise here. What is surprising, is this has apparently been a problem for a very long time. The following is from the first year of the league.
Welp. I guess youth is overrated in a dynasty league. I’m an idiot.
9. Ides of Martz - Omniscient (69.7)
A team I have a personal hatred for. You’ll see.
QB strength: 6th
Omni has a fascinating group, and how this goes will determine whether his team has a chance to sneak in the playoffs. If Luck comes fully back, he’s fine and this ranking is too low.
There’s Bortles! This was a funny moment in hindsight:
To be fair, that was a reasonable valuation at the time. At THIS time, Bortles is just a guy. I don’t think Trubisky is going to ever be a fantasy starter, but I recognize that his first season is the worst measure by which to make that judgment. He could be this season’s Goff.
WR Strength: 2nd
Lots of resources invested here, and this is a damned fine group. Golden Tate might be on the decline, and I think Thielen will regress without Keenum feeding him contested targets. Even if I’m right, Hogan will probably outperform his projection, and Woods or Golladay will both be fine starts.
RB Strength: 11th
And here we come to my least favorite moment of this league’s history.
…I cut him that season. I fucking hate Alex Collins so much, I can’t even. He’s a starter and very productive one, whatever. God damn it!
After Collins is mostly a load of shit. Of course this is the team that got a miracle gift in Alfred Morris, which makes me hate this team on a personal level. The lesson: take exactly 11 hours and 59 minutes for every draft pick from now, just in case.
Tarik Cohen is a startable asset, but if he’s such a potent receiving weapon from the backfield, how come the Bears try to force feed Jordan Howard targets every single preseason? What a weird situation. I think Cohen is an awesome player, but he’s not someone I want to rely on to start every week.
Omni made a good choice in loading up on RB depth. This ranking will change significantly next season as Michel gets healthy and Wilkins finds a stable role. Chase Edmonds late was a smart, smart pick. I HoPe YoU ReMeMbEr YoU HaVe To HoLd HiM FoR ThRee YeArS GOD DAMN IT
TE Strength: 11th
Kyle Rudolph might not have a ton of time left, but for the next few years he’s a fine option. I wish there was a more exciting option on the bench, but maybe Everett takes a leap. I doubt it.
Youth: 6th
Surprising amount of youth, even for a team with Julio, Tate, and Rudolph. Omni is in a decent place to build a contending team over the next couple season and then open a championship window sometime around 2020 or so.
8. Moridwon - Hamlet (69.9)
A well-balanced, well-constructed team that could easily move up in the rankings. Then again, half this team will be rehabbing a torn ACL by midseason, so it could also end up in the cellar. Of course he already has one IR slot filled.
QB strength: 7th
As for the QBs, Rivers is still underrated as a fantasy passer. He has a season or two left of relevance, so Mahomes waiting in the wings is excellent roster design.
WR Strength: 6th
I think this group is better than the rating. Michael Thomas and Keenan Allen are an outstanding top two. The rating falls because of the lack of startable depth for this season, but there’s some definite upside. This could be a top 3 group next season with Mike Williams and Gallup/Kirk. Well constructed here, as well.
RB Strength: 5th
From 2015:
Holy. Shit.
David Johnson will almost certainly finish in the top 3 this season, and he should keep doing so for another 4-5 years. I think what’s after him is very intriguing. Marlon Mack is someone I liked a lot when I drafted him, but he’s shown some troubling tendencies on the field. Peyton Barber is a serviceable starter for half of this season, affording Hamlet some flexibility. Adrian Peterson is still in the league! I think he’ll be a flex starter for a few weeks until he wears down like he did last season.
Chris Carson looks a lot better on film than people give him credit for. Rashaad Penny was a high pick and has a ton of upside, but if he actually turns out to be the next “fat Eddie Lacy,” Carson will be a good starter. Pretty strong group, top to bottom. I probably shouldn’t have traded Carson in scratch a homer itch.
TE Strength: 12th
Things aren’t great here, obviously. But at least Gesicki has a ton of upside. This could look a lot better next season if Seals-Jones is as good as I think he is, which is pretty good.
Youth: 10th
This is hurt a lot by Rivers maybe retiring in the next season or two. I think Pierre Garcon probably on his last season, as well. But this team isn’t old or vulnerable as it seems. Right now, it’s a middling team that can compete, but probably isn’t quite there. But Hamlet has show deft management and deliberateness in his roster construction, and I’m impressed how he has set his team up to smoothly transition into the next few years without having to make gigantic moves like I have.
7. Warner’s Brothers - Dalej42 (70.5)
NOT IN THE CELLAR ANY MORE
QB strength: 3rd
I feel a lot of pride for this ranking, since this team is half my players. Without a critical injury or two, Dale is definitely not finishing in the cellar.
Russell Wilson is probably the best dynasty QB right now, and Dak behind him is a fine balance. Case Keenum is probably only valuable as trade bait.
WR Strength: 12th
Getting Doug Baldwin back should save this team, but behind him is a hell of a lot of nothing. Mohamed Sanu is a starter, I guess. Calvin Ridley was my least favorite top WR prospect in this year’s draft, but he at least has a starting spot and could see a bunch of targets. He’ll be an interesting case study in whether his route running (excellent) can overcome his athleticism (terrible). I think John Brown shocks people this season and becomes Dale’s every week flex, but even so, that’s probably only a top 25-35 WR ceiling.
RB Strength: 3rd
Todd Gurley is carrying this ranking. I thought he was not only cooked when I traded him, but didn’t give a shit about it, either. I couldn’t have been more wrong. Jeff Fisher is Rich Kotite who can charm an owner.
Derrick Henry is an athletic freak, but there’s a lot of concern he isn’t the best back on the roster. Luckily, Dale also has that other back in Dion Lewis. That makes him matchup-vulnerable, but between the Wilson-Baldwin hookup and the Henry-Lewis pairing, Dale’s team is a time bomb that is randomly going to explode once or twice this season and crush anyone he’s playing. He’s the ultimate wild card this year, and I think someone is going to miss the playoffs because Dale crushed them at the worst time.
There is nothing interesting at all behind the top 3 at RB, to me. James White is maybe going to play, maybe not. Matt Breida is hurt and might be suddenly be a handcuff to Alfred Morris, who always runs effectively. James Conner is an interesting stash, but he might not pay dividends for a few years.
TE Strength: 5th
This is a high ranking, but even so, Dale is carrying way too many TEs. 4 TEs is insane.
Drafting Trey Burton in 2016 was a bizarre pick in the 2nd round of our draft. But Dale held firm, and the investment has matured. I think his hype is overrated because, while he’s athletically interesting, but I don’t see him returning every-week-starter fantasy production. He’s good, but not special on the field.
Vernon Davis is probably retiring after this year. Tyler Eifert is unreliable but a very interesting reserve. Higbee is another Burton-like stash that probably won’t be worth much for a few years. Dale might just be the TE whisperer of the league.
Youth: 2nd
Behind Wilson, Gurley and Henry, the foundation of Dale’s resurgence is set. He needs to start developing the depth of his roster so he has better matchup options week to week, but the hard work is done. Dale should be competitive for several years, starting now. You’re welcome.
6. Isotopes - Petey (71.6)
Another well-balanced team that has an open championship window, but is going to have a hell of a time starting next season.
QB strength: 10th
This is a weird composition. There are just plainly too many damned players here. Five QBs is just a terrible idea. I can’t figure out the strategy here.
Derek Carr is young, and he’s put up some good statistical seasons. But he is under-the-radar maybe not very good. Aside from one good season, he’s been an average starter in just about every meaningful passing metric. Maybe he takes a step in a (Hopefully? Potentially?) more imaginative offense?
Alex Smith is probably not going to be what he was in KC, where he had weapons and a coach willing to maximize them. Joe Flacco is not great, although he might pull an Alex Smith and revive himself after taking insult at his team drafting a QB to replace him. Lamar Jackson is crazy underrated. His weaknesses as a prospect are all correctable with good coaching. His fit in Baltimore is baffling, though. Ryan Tannehill is trash and not worth rostering.
WR Strength: 4th
Trading for Demaryius is a good idea for this season, but Petey overpaid for a player on the decline. With Mike Evans, this is a solid top two. I think Juju Smith-Schuster is going to find far fewer targets in Pittsburgh. He had a terrific rookie season, but his fit in Pittsburgh just isn’t there. Nelson Agholor’s rebirth was a miracle for this team, and he should be a fair starter for a while.
The depth here is interesting. I liked Cooper Kupp a lot coming into the NFL. Beasley will probably get a lot of work on a team with few passing options. Kenny Stills i a popular sleeper pick. But why keep Dez? You could have dropped him and used another pick on a QB to stash.
RB Strength: 6th
Any team with Le’Veon is automatically in decent shape. Petey had better pay attention to this position, though, and fast. Lynch and Blount will be serviceable spot starters this season, but neither will be playing next year. Chris Ivory is likely useless this season, and he’s probably out of the league next season. Devontae Booker is probably going to lose him job because he’s Just A Guy. Lots of work to do after this season.
TE Strength: 6th
Delanie Walker is also old and might only have a year or two left. Jack Doyle is an interesting reserve. Not much upside here, but serviceable.
Youth: 9th
This team is a lot more volatile and vulnerable than the ranking, and the ranking isn’t great. The WR group after Evans has a very limited ceiling. The RB group is going to very quickly vanish to nothingness. Quite literally, you might not have even two options next year, and only one of them would be a starter, if so. Scary roster construction, but a good chance at the playoffs this season, at least.
5. Nine Inch Neils - RNATB (73.3)
Last year’s buzzsaw is surprisingly low in this year’s rankings. Still clearly a contender, but a little vulnerable at important spots.
QB strength: 12th
After RNATB was far and away the best team last year, this ranking surprised me quite a bit. But the main reason for it is the relatvie weakness of the QB position. QB might be the least valuable position since it is so deep and we only start 1, but that means if you don’t have an elite one, your team’s chances are limited. Matt Ryan is good enough to win a Super Bowl, but he was awful last season in fantasy. He should rebound, but he’s not going to suddenly be a top 5 guy.
The trade for Jameis Winston backfired pretty damn hard. He’s suspended and the coach was non-committal about him having a job when he gets back. I think his bullshit has worn thin, and he might need a change of scenery. He won’t be eating many dubyas for a while.
Nick Foles is worth holding onto with Wentz coming off his knee injury, but at best this is only a potential starter for the first couple weeks.
I think Josh Rosen is the best of the rookie QBs in terms of being a typical pocket passer. But I think he’s the worst fantasy option of the group. He could have value if he starts next season and Fitz returns, but I don’t see it. Arizona just might not be a good fantasy landscape for a while.
WR Strength: 3rd
I was very, very surprised by this ranking. Hopkins is a bonafide #1 and perhaps the best dynasty WR in the league. Tyreek Hill could regress, or he could just literally outrun everyone in a straight line and Mahomes could toss it 70 yards to him once a game. I love me some Marvin Jones.
I think this ranking is hurt by the 5th place WR. Chris Godwin is a terrific prospect, but he won’t return a ton of value this season. Snead is hardly worth rostering anymore, and Jermaine Kearse isn’t interesting. That’s the entire bench. That makes this team vulnerable to a single WR injury because…
RB Strength: 10th
This group is in rough shape this season. Hunt is great, no arguments. He’s the perfect blend of player and team. Ingram will be a good starter, but he’s suspended. Who will you play the first four weeks? Doug Martin is toast and not starting. Abdullah is 4th on his depth chart. D’Onta Foreman is still hurt and there’s concern he just won’t get healthy this season. He’s likely to miss at least the first 6 games because he’ll probably go on PUP. Kalen Ballage is an upside stash who could be size/speed freak in a few seasons, but his fit in Miami sucks. I can’t see him possibly returning value for 3-4 years.
TE Strength: 3rd
As much as the overall ranking and WR ranking surprised me, this ranking is every bit as shocking. I guess Jordan Reed is going to play this year? Are we sure? He’s a good option if he does, but he hasn’t yet this season. Benjamin Watson is definitely playing his last season and not worth holding. Austin Seferian-Jenkins is an interesting player from measureables perspective. A lot of teams have already given up on him, and his fit in Jacksonville isn’t great.
Youth: 3rd
There’s a ton of young assets in the starters with Hopkins, Cooks, Hunt, and Hill. Even Reed and Jones are young. This team is going to be in the playoffs for a long time, and a perennial championship contender if the QB position gets figured out.
4. Exploding Pancakes - SenorBeef (74.5)
A roster that would have struggled to make the playoffs receives miraculous charity from a mysterious benefactor!
QB strength: 11th
Keep in mind that this ranking factors in your starter and your top reserve. This is how a team with Aaron Rodgers ranks so low. Beef wisely focused on upgrading his reserve here, as he’s right that his team lost a legit chance at a title last season when Rodgers went down. I think doubling up with Allen was not a good decision, but the strategy at least makes sense. If one of Darnold or Allen becomes a startable asset (hint: it’ll be Darnold, if either), this ranking will be among the top in the league. I just think spending two picks on what will only ever be your backup is a bad use of resources, myself.
WR Strength: 7th
Before our trade, this group would have ranked a bit lower. Hilton and Robinson have about the worst combined 2017 as you can imagine for two starters. But if both return to form, this is an above-average duo. JOSH GORDON is waiting in the wings and is the ultimate wildcard. If he’s still JOSH GORDON and not “Josh Gordon (susp.),” this team has a really good chance to win it all.
Behind that, there’s not much I like. Jordy Nelson will be better than people think because last year was less about him and more about Rodgers going down. I don’t see Martavis being useful, but he could surprise (as in: surprise, he got cut!). The problem is that he is so TD-dependent, it will be hard to ever start him (especially now that he got cut!). I think Cameron Meredith and Terrelle Pryor are both done. Callaway is potentially awesome, but he’s a behavior risk. Even riskier is how he handles his mistakes. He worried me a lot on Hard Knocks, trying to slyly hide his arrest and only taking responsibility for it after he was found out. Doesn’t strike me someone who is going to start acting right.
If you’re interested, before our trade, Beef’s whole team would have ranked around 6th or 7th…so, yeah, I probably fucked it up.
RB Strength: 7th
Howard and Drake are both young, and both could easily finish in the top 8 this year. This grade on Drake is probably a little conservative, but it’s a big concern that Miami brought in an established vet to form an ill-advised potential platoon. Frank Gore has been defying people’s expectations about his demise for half a decade, but he’s definitely done, now. And yet, Miami is determined to give him enough work to potentially spoil Drake’s fantasy prospects.
Jay Ajayi is a pretty good 3rd RB. He’ll be very useful this season, but I hate his long-term outlook. Philly won’t re-sign him, so his fit next season is completely up in the air. He’s also a big risk for knee injuries, and he runs funny. I don’t like him at all as a dynasty asset.
There’s a lot of useful depth here. Crowell is the lead of a platoon and has always been fine when given work. Chris Thompson is a startable asset in a PPR league, but Chubb, Perine, Montgomery, and Rob Kelley (you kept him??) aren’t going to do much of anything for you this year.
The top of the group is in great shape, and with Chubb as a future flex, the starters are set. The bench needs a lot of work.
TE Strength: 4th
Gronk will continue to smash, but for how long? He considered retirement after last season. New England wisely hooked him up with a revised contract to make him happier, but I get the feeling he’s kinda done with the grind and the injuries. Don’t be surprised if this is actually his last season.
Unfortunately, only Cameron Brate is behind him. Brate is probably seeing his last season as a useful fantasy asset. Lots of uncertainty beyond this season here. This is a far fall from the team that once boasted (and boasted, and…) a TE corps of Jermichael Finley, Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski, and Tony Gonzalez
Youth: 8th
This ranking is artificially too low based on Rodgers. He may be older, but he could still be a top starter for 3-5 more years, at least. There’s a good mix of youth and experience here, though. I think the ranking is a touch low.
[del]1. Hungry Hungry Haruspex - Jules Andre (77.9)[/del]
3. Hungry Hungry Haruspex - Jules Andre (77.3)
This ranking was first before McKinnon went down. Fortunately, I didn’t trade away all my depth there. Wentz is not ready for the start of the season, which was always a possibility. Three players on IR before week 1, which I don’t think even **Hamlet **has ever done before.
QB strength: 5th
When it comes to this season, Wentz and Garoppolo are ranked fairly at 5th. I would have been far and away 1st with Russell Wilson, but he was clearly expendable. For the next five years, I think I’ve got the best situation in the league.
You guys are fucked.
WR Strength: 8th
I think Amari Cooper, Stefon Diggs, and Corey Davis are all legit #1 WRs, but this ranking is held down by them needing to actually meet their respective upsides this season. Cooper is going to be treated like a bellcow WR by Gruden’s own admission, so I anticipate him having a huge target share and year.
Stefon Diggs is the second best route runner in the league behind Antonio Brown, and he has dominated the attention of The Artist Formerly Known as “Kurt” Cousins this summer. I think he is going to explode this season and become a top 5 WR. He just has to stay healthy. Everything else is in line for him.
We’ve talked about Corey Davis. Assuming he does not pan out, I have DJ Moore hogging targets in Carolina, James Washington dominating deep shots in Pittsburgh, and Anthony Miller taking the underneath and intermediate work in an offense that is working towards opening up. One of them will certainly develop into an every week start next season.
Then there’s Tyler Lockett. In every season in his career, he has quietly put up top 25-35 production. Now he finds himself as a starter outside on a team that lost its #2 WR and top TE who combined for 150 targets last season. They can’t run the ball. Their defense is cratering so they will be forced to pass to keep up. And he’s still a top return guy. He’s going to be a top 10 WR this year, and he’s only 25.
You guys are fucked.
RB Strength: 1st
YEAH BOI! Let’s say Barkley just meets his low-end average projection as a top 8-10 RB. Even in that case, only Retro can match my combination of Fournette and Barkley, and both will a top duo for at least 5 years (standard injury disclaimer inserted here).
Then I go [del]3[/del] 2 deep in reserve with no doubt starters. [del]There’s Jerick McKinnon, who is such an elite athlete that he basically broke SPARQ, and now gets to start as a hybrid receiver on a team that is going to target him a ton downfield. He has a strong chance to lead the league in targets as a RB[/del] if he stays healthy, which is admittedly the biggest problem with him.
I also have Joe Mixon, so is very young and already established as the unquestioned starter. Lamar Miller we’ve talked about, but he has no competition for work for the first half of the season, and was a top 8 back last season when he played alongisde Deshaun Watson. Nobody has a 4th RB as good as Miller, [del]and he’s my 5th.[/del]
I think Corey Clement is the starter next season in Philly, and I think Chris Warren is in line to be for the Raiders once the team moves to Vegas. Not having to rely on your upside stashes to turn out is a luxury that nobody else really has in this league.
Clearly this changed a bit since it was first written. I still think I have a very strong group here, but now there is a bit of uncertainty at my flex. Still, you guys are fucked.
TE Strength: 10th
This ranking is as low as it is because my only reserve right now is Goedert, who will be an unreliable start and isn’t projected to do much. But with Engram (24 next season), Hunter Henry (24 in 2019), and Goedert (24) I’ll easily be in the top two TE groups next season.
You guys are fucked.
Youth: 1st
You guys are so, so fucked.
2. No Use For A Name - RetroVertigo (77.5)
Big improvement from last season makes this team a serious contender, but potentially the team only has a very limited window as a championship favorite.
QB strength: 2nd
Tom Brady carries this ranking. The depth is strong on first glance with Kirk Cousins and Sam Bradford, but only Cousins has any value beyond this season. And he might be walking into a more conservative offense. Some work will likely need to be done next season, as I can’t imagine Brady wants to put up with this shit in 2019, especially after he loses to the Eagles in the Super Bowl again this season.
WR Strength: 9th
A.J. Green is the stud at the top, but someone has to step up and be an every week start at #2 and flex in order for this team to dominate. There’s plenty of chances though, because Retro is carrying half the WRs in the league.
Marquise Goodwin has been awesome this summer, so he’s an easy projection for a starter. But he’s only 5’9", so can he really be a #1? Will Fuller could be incredible if Deshaun Watson is still Deshaun Watson. There’s a ton of uncertainty behind those two.
Terrance Williams isn’t going to be useful. Dede Westbrook is young and has a great chance with Marqise Lee getting hurt, but there are a lot of other young players in Jacksonville who have a similar chance. And it’s a running team, anyway.
There’s a good chance that one of Curtis Samuel, Phillip Dorsett, Kevin White, or Rishard Matthews turn into a startable flex. Of that group, I think it’s Matthews, but his ceiling will still be limited based on his team and fit.
I love the picks of Sutton and Tre’Quan Smith. Both were draft targets for me. I think both are in line to be productive starters, but neither will likely do so for a season at least. I especially love Tre’Quan Smith, though he might not get an opportunity before Brees retires.
If you are uncertain at a position, there’s no better strategy in my mind than to just roll a ton of dice and hope two of them come up 6. That was clearly done here, and it was wise.
RB Strength: 2nd
HOT DIGGITY DAMN! This group just makes me giddy. I can’t imagine how fun Sundays must be when you have RBs like this. I’m actually completely shocked this isn’t far and away the #1 group, but it falls to #2 because of the lack of depth beyond the starters. There is more certainty with this group than mine, and I think it will end up #1 when the season ends.
Say one of the triumvirate here gets hurt. Retro has tons of options at WR/flex to hope to make up for the production. But if the WR depth doesn’t pan out, this team will probably collpase pretty quick with even one of his top 3 going down. Much like what happened with Elliott last season.
Marcus Murphy was a savvy dynasty pick, and Latavius Murray is smart insurance for his most vulnerable starter. This is a terrific group, and it has been well managed.
TE Strength: 9th
I don’t like O.J. Howard, and I mentioned last season during the draft recap that I don’t buy that he is a dominant receiving TE in waiting. Ebron is a decent reserve, but there’s a good chance this position is just an anchor on this roster all season.
Youth: 7th
At RB, the youth/production blend is incredible. With the young depth at WR, I can’t imagine this team struggles to find starters over the next few seasons. Really, this ranking is only weighed down by Brady’s age and uncertain future.
1. The Great Old Ones - Ol’Gaffer (77.7)
The new top team since I’ve already been decimated by injuries. Grumble grumble.
QB strength: 1st
The dichotomy between Gaffer’s and Overly’s draft strategies in the new owner draft was fascinating to see. Gaffer clearly went balanced, looking to field a competitive team right away; whereas it seems like Overly was stacking his team to contend in the future when he can solve the puzzle of how to bring in reinforcements for his RB position.
Gaffer’s team is surprisingly scary. Cam Newton gets a ton of shit, but he’s a legit top 3 QB in any given season. DJ Moore will finally give him the receiver he needs to become mroe consistently productive. Even if he doesn’t, Stafford is a legit starter in his own right. And then Teddy Bridgewater could be the starter of the future in a potent offense shortly.
WR Strength: 5th
I was very surprised that Odell Beckham Jr. wasn’t first in the new owner draft. He’s as good a dynasty asset as anyone.
Beyond him there’s a little uncertainty. Michael Crabtree is underrated, and he’s be a productive starter this season. I think Gaffer is going to have to start 4 WRs this season, and between Robby Anderson, Emmanuel Sanders, Tyrell Williams, and Keelan Cole he should find 2 reliable starters. I don’t think Kelvin Benjamin or Allen Hurns can be counted on, but Hurns has a ton of opportunity and has the upside of a stud if he can stay healthy. People are possibly sleeping on him big time.
RB Strength: 4th
Alvin Kamara is a beast and will carry this team for a long time. LeSean McCoy is older and in a terrible position in Buffalo, but he has proven that he can be productive even if everyone around him is utter trash. And they will be, again. There’s also the chance that he goes full Marvin Harrison and actually tries to have someone killed, so he could be kicked out of the league at any time.
There was shockingly little available at RB for Gaffer in the new owner draft, so it was very smart to stash Guice. If McCoy gets hurt or shows his age, this team is going to miss out on a good chance to contend for a championship. On the other hand, Kamara and Guice is going to be a fantastic foundation for a long time, assuming Guice fully recovers and is actually good. I think he’s a high upside JAG, and I was glad the Eagles passed on him.
TE Strength: 2nd
Zach Ertz is a top 3 TE and still young enough to be a top guy for a couple more years. Greg Olsen is probably unnecessary on this team, but he does make for a spot flex if the WRs don’t turn into startable players. I think that is unlikely, so I don’t like the idea of carrying an older TE in reserve. But he’s the best bench TE in the league this season, for sure.
Youth: 3rd
I think this ranking is a touch too high because of McCoy and Crabtree. But there are replacements on the roster already, and the combo of Newton and Stafford should produce a top starting option for half a decade more. This team is set up to be very good for a long time, but might need some luck to dominate as much as the ranking suggests.
FYI, guys, I’m willing to move Brandin Cooks or Marvin Jones for an RB2, or both for an RB1. I would also consider trading Tyfreek or possibly even Hopkins for the right guy.
I can’t say I disagree with any of this too much. My WR depth up to #4 is unmatched, because at least two of my guys are likely to finish top-12, and at least three will be in the top 24.
Beyond that it’s actually sneaky good too, because Snead is one injured season away from two 100-target seasons in New Orleans. He’s listed as the starting X receiver in the Raven’s week 1 depth chart and he will almost certainly catch more passes than John Brown or Michael Crabtree. Jermaine Kearse quietly put up 800 yards last year despite abysmal QB play; even if he’s the WR2 to Robby Anderson he should easily replicate last year’s numbers with Rosen. Godwin doesn’t have more than handcuff value right now with so many mouths to feed in Tampa, but he’ll be the clear-cut WR2 next year and will never see a double-team across from Mike Evans. I didn’t like him when he was drafted, but he took over games at the end of last year and may supplant D-Jax in two-receiver sets as early as this season.
I also think the QB ranking is too low. Ryan was awful last year, but that was year 1 of a new system. I suspect Koetter’s refusal to commit to Winston after Week 3 is a motivational tactic (probably for both him and beardy). At least for this year, he’ll be just fine and probably a top-10 QB in per-game performance when he returns. Foles is just depth for Winston’s suspension and I’ll probably trade him to Wentz’ owner for a pick once Winston returns.
My TEs are just okay. Reed is admittedly always hurt, but when healthy he’s arguably the second best TE in the league between the 20s. He’s averaged 5.3 catches and 55 yards per game for his career, including his rookie season and his lost 2017.
The weather this Labor Day is awful, so I’m inside in front of the TV. Might as well do some reviews.
1.04 - Sony Michel, RB, NE
Not a fan of this pick, really. During the real NFL draft I was down on Michel and was touting both Guice and Chubb as more appealing RB prospects than Michel. Then Chubb went to the Browns and Guice got hurt. If I had even a semblance of RB depth, I would have probably taken Guice as the Dynasty guy I actually believe in.
The Sharps supposedly love Michel this year and the Pats drafting a RB in the first would theoretically imply that Belichick won’t be playing RB roulette, but we’ll see. Dion Lewis was a very valuable asset with the Pats and I think there’s a chance Michel displaces James White in the passing game while staying in the game near the goal line. Then again…he could be Mike Gillislee, Stevan Ridley or any other of a number of preseason Pats RB1s that were totally useless by week 5.
2.04 - Jordan Wilkins, RB, Ind
As you probably noticed, this draft was all about RBs for me. I had planned to take Anthony Miller here if he were available, and I was shocked he wasn’t, which was going to perhaps be my only non-RB in this draft. With Miller gone, I grabbed the only likely starter left on the board. I hate the Colts running game in general, but with Luck being gimpy they could end up leaning on this guy quite a bit and they seem bound and determined to fix the OL in Indy. Hines was drafted ahead of him, but every single report from camp says Wilkins is the #1 option on all three downs. If Wilkins is this year’s Jordan Howard I’ll have really lucked out.
3.04 - Ito Smith, RB, Atl
Don’t know that much about this guy and haven’t seen much tape, but pretty much everyone says that he’ll be taking on the Tevin Coleman role next year after he leaves in free agency. Freeman is aging and misses time here and there, so Smith has a pretty clear path to regular touches. The post-Shanahan offense really regressed, but hopefully they get it figured out in time for Smith to be useful.
John Kelly was the guy I really wanted here. He’s behind Gurley, but has been damn good in the preseason. Smith may have a better path to being a starter, but I always bet on talent.
4.04 - Chase Edmonds, RB, Ari
Surprised he lasted this long. I considered him in the previous round and like John Kelly could become a stud if DJ goes down again. I think the hype on Edmonds is a little out of proportion, a few scouting reports have said that he’s maxed out physically which might indicate his ceiling is low in the NFL.
As Jules says, I need to be smart and hang onto him. DJ is still young and isn’t going anywhere soon, but the Cards may decide to reduce his usage once he gets to his second contract.
5.04 - Alfred Morris, RB, SF
So, I got really fortunate here. Alfred Morris probably isn’t a useful Dynasty asset, but for a team like mine with only 1 real feature back on it’s roster, this is a major stroke of luck. I picked McKinnon in the 2nd round of my IRL big money league so this isn’t really that much consolation, but I’ll take what I can get.
The real question will be if Matt Breida can prove himself to be a 3-down back or not. Morris has been successful as a RB1 in a Shanahan offense before and is more reliable in pass pro. He’s also healthier than Breida to start the season and has a good track record of staying on the field.
I am really thin at TE and would have raced to pick Hayden Hurst as stash guy here if not for Justin. So thanks for that, I take back all the names I called you.
6.04 - Kyle Lauletta, QB, NYG
Luck is a question mark. Everyone in Indy is saying he’ll be back to 100% this season, but the preseason numbers aren’t good. He’s just not throwing any deep balls. I’ve raved about Trubisky before and the Bears have made it abundantly clear that they are all in on him this year. I don’t expect him to be Drew Brees, but he can Kirk Cousins. He could also be Blake Bortles, so I need a hedge.
Lauletta is that hedge. The new Giants regime kicked David Webb to the curb today which makes Lauletta the heir apparent to Eli. And the wheels are coming off on Eli very soon, like by week 6. The Giants are the 2nd worst GM-Coach combo in the league IMO, so I don’t really trust their evaluation that much, but I like Lauletta better than both Mason Rudolph and Josh Allen based on what we’ve seen so far. Last pick in the draft, so I didn’t have to spend much here if I’m wrong, but there’s a non-zero chance that I’m starting from zero at QB in 2 years…so I hope he pans out.
Some quick reactions.
If you hit on all 4, you’re golden. The likelihood of that seems pretty low, even if Barkley is close to a sure thing. I especially dislike loading up on WRs this way, they are WAY less predictable as rookies than RBs are. Also, this is one of the worst WR classes in recent memory, so you’re definitely zagging here.
Barkley is probably Gurley 2.0. But, he might be Trent Richardson. Still, I think the gamble is probably worthwhile. He could win you the league multiple times in the next 5 years. The biggest risk to my mind is the garbage fire that will be the Giants. They will be a bottom 5 team for the next 3-5 years and generally speaking, that’s not a great situation for a stub RB. They’ll be in a lot of come from behind situations and Barkley will take a lot of punishment.
Steve Smith is one of a kind, making any comparisons to him is foolish. Moore’s situation seems like a pretty good one, but people made the similar arguments in favor of the big-bodied Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess w.r.t. Cam. I think it’s most likely at this point that no WR playing with Cam will ever be a highly productive guy, especially in terms of TDs. I especially doubt Cam will be able to work the middle of the field with slants and crosses the way you describe, that’s really accuracy, recognition and timing reliant. Cam’s better chucking it up at big catch radius guys.
I haven’t scouted Washington the way you have, but he’s kinda slow (4.54) and kind short (5’11"). Not the prototypical WR1. He’s competing with AB, JuJu and Eli Rogers. The Steelers tend to nail WR picks, so that is in favor of Washington, but it also means he could be the next Bryant or Coates or Wheaton. Finally, Big Ben is going to fall of a cliff very soon.
Even if he has every single intangible you describe and they all translate, he’s going to remain a WR2 to AB for the next few years at least. You gave up a ton for a guy in a pretty bad situation.
I love this guy and I love his situation, you nailed the pick. If I take off my Bear-goggles I’d say that Miller will only be as good as Trubisky allows him to be, which is a question mark. Even so, I like him better than Washington in almost every regard.
Let me know if you want to make a deal.
Ryan Nall rushed for 223 yards on 32 caries for a 7.0 YPC and 1 TD against the second string. The Bears put him on the PS. Warren plays for Jon Gruden… But you are 100% right about the situation, it’s a good one for him. Still, even if he becomes productive I don’t see him being a fantasy stud at any point. More of a placeholder until after Gruden gets fired.
Dallas Goedert = Adam Shaheen. We shall see how it pans out, but even if Goedert is excellent right away he’s not displacing Ertz. If he’s as productive as Burton he’s still a disappointing fantasy TE. Still, for a 4th round TE it’s a fine pick. I liked Hurst better as a prospect, but with the injury and the quality of offense Goedert is the better pick here.
He was on my board as a high-upside flyer as well. Love the situation if you set aside the Bortles factor, which you really can’t (said as the owner of Bortles). I think he lacks almost all of the intangibles, he basically the anti-Washington, so there’s that. I agree he probably should have come off the board much sooner than this.
The big thing you omitted from your draft review is what you gave up to make all these moves.
You lost:
Russell Wilson, QB, Sea
Doug Baldwin, WR, Sea
Derrick Henry, RB, Ten
Jordan Howard, RB, Chi
T.Y. Hilton, WR, Ind
Chris Carson, RB, Sea
Seattle
2019 1st round pick
and added:
Lamar Miller, RB, Hou
Corey Davis, WR, Ten
Corey Clement, RB, Phi
Philadelphia
The picks you made really don’t justify the cost. It’s not like you shipped off a bunch of older guys to get younger.
Wilson may be the best Dynasty QB available right now. Henry and Howard are both young RB1s on rookie deals with likely 5 years left of productivity. Carson probably would have been a top 6 pick in this draft (you used a 4th on him just last year) and has way more upside than Clement. Baldwin just signed a monster deal and is going in the 3rd round of most redraft leagues, though his knee makes him perhaps a good one to get out early on. We’ve already debated TY vs. Davis and Miller vs. Howard. I suppose Philly is a upgrade over Seattle’s D. And the big killer is giving away next years 1st…which could be a top 3 pick, i.e. another Barkley, Zeke or Julio Jones.
I think your team took a massive, huge, Ted Washington sized step backwards for the next 2 years. Unless Barkley is Adrian Peterson and DJ Moore is Antonio Brown, this draft will fill you with regret…like Raiders fans.
1.03 + 1.11 - Traded to Hamlet for Royce Freeman, RB, Den
Clearly, I overpaid. I know I overpaid. Hamlet knows I overpaid. Everyone else knows I overpaid. But there was no one else at the top of the draft that I liked more than Freeman. I was considering Sony Michel in this spot, but NE RBs are always a gamble. And he’s hurt. And there’s a few other guys competing for playing time. No thank you.
Instead, I picked up a definite starter and someone that I think could be very productive for a very long time. Though I’m a bit disappointed I couldn’t grab Michael Gallup with 1.11. Thankfully, I had a backup plan…
2.03 - Traded to Jules for Donte Moncrief, WR, Jax
I’ve always liked Moncrief and I think he got a raw deal in Indy with injuries and some bad Luck. But now he’s injury-free and the go-to guy for Blake Bortles. He’s not fancy, but he’s gotta throw it to somebody. Very happy with this move.
4.03 - Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR, GB
Every name I had written down (Ballage, Allison, and Allen) all seemed to go in the third round. And then Jules took Goedert, so I had to scramble. This pick may or may not have been influenced by the Packers game I was checking up on when my turn came around, but Valdes-Scantling had a great preseason and their other receivers are getting up there, so he could have a lot of opportunities a year or two down the line.
5.03 - Hayden Hurst, TE, Bal
Even though he’s injured, Hurst was the consensus best TE available after Goedert, so I grabbed him in case Austin Hooper turns out to be a bust or Jimmy Graham calls it quits.
6.02 Mason Rudolph, QB, Pit
The likely heir apparent to Big Ben. Didn’t have a great preseason, but it was between Rudolph and Kyle Lauletta, and the consensus is that Rudolph has the higher ceiling. So in a few years I’ll either be settling in with my new starter, or kicking myself over passing over the guy who gets to play with Odell Beckham.
EDIT: Nevermind, I was confused by how yahoo displays the two leagues. I didn’t see the new one listed below the old one.
My roster has an understandable typo mistake:
I kept T.J. Yeldon, RB, Jax, but he’s not on my roster.
Instead, Deon Yelder, TE, NO is on my roster, who I didn’t keep.
If a commissioner could drop Yelder and add Yeldon, I would much appreciate it.
Got it.
I was looking at the old league, and it appears that co-comissioner status resets year to year because I don’t have a commissioner tag this year. So there’s nothing I can do to change or delete it that I can see. Which I suppose, now that we imported the history over, everyone can simply leave that league if they like. It should be in a dormant state as there won’t be anyone to hit the start season button.
Thanks much.
I just checked out the yahoo automated draft review, which is largely worthless for our league (“What a tremendous late-round bargain for New York Fanboys, who selected Christian McCaffrey in the 22nd round, about 20 rounds later than his ADP”) but did reveal an interesting tidbit for the two of us:
Week 11 will be a rude awakening for New York Fanboys, as they have seven players on a bye, led by Jarvis Landry, Bilal Powell, and Carlos Hyde. Fear not, your Week 11 opponent – Exploding Pancakes – will also be tackling their worst bye week with nine players getting the week off.
Does anyone happen to want to play in the big league this year? We’re up to 17 - I’d at least like to get one more to put us at 18 so we can run a head to head league normally. Draft is on Wednesday.
Got someone for the Big League. Thanks Hamlet.
Going to the league page now, at the top it says in a big orange warning message:
For your league to score for the entire NFL season schedule, your draft must be complete before 11:59 p.m. PT on September 5, 2018. If your league’s draft happens after this deadline, the Commissioner can retroactively apply the first week of scoring. Public and Pro leagues will start with Week 2 scoring if drafted post Week 1 scoring deadline.
Not sure if that’s saying that our draft hasn’t officially been completed yet, but if it hasn’t, consider this a heads-up.
Not to worry, that’s a generic warning messages shown on all league pages, we’re fine.
Wow, $18 for Cleveland DEF. I thought for sure nobody would be interested in them, or at least not more than a dollar or two. My $3 bid on them got totally trounced by Hamlet’s $18.
Nobody else bid on Cleveland other than me and Hamlet; surprised Beef didn’t jump in there. Their defense impressed me this preseason, and I have four different shitty defenses so I kind of needed them. Though if I thought others shared my opinion I probably would have gone in “heavy” with like an $11 or $12 bid and still been shit out of luck.
In other waiver news, I got the kicker I wanted (from the Vikings), yay! My $3 bid successfully topped Retro’s $0 and Jules’ $1 bids, so good bid by me.
I’d forgotten who “No Use For A Name” was, so here’s a rundown of who’s who for my own edification:
Exploding Pancakes: SenorBeef
HungryHungryHaruspex: Jules Andre
Ides of Martz: Omniscient
Isotopes: Petey
JB’s Gusterrhoids: Justin_Bailey
Moridwon: Hamlet
New York Fanboys: Ellis Dee
Nine Inch Neils: Really Not All That Bright
No Use For A Name: RetroVertigo
Overly Sentimental: Overly Sentimental
The Great Old Ones: Ol’Gaffer
Warner’s Brothers: dalej42
I’m a desperate man. It’s actually kinda rare that I actually WANT a player I bid on, but I WANTED the Browns defense this, and future, years. And I only had the Niners and Seattle, so I also NEEDED them. Seemed well worth it to blow it on a defense I think is up and coming rather than some 3rd string RB who needs an injury to play.
How could you overlook the earth shattering news that I got Nathan Peterman. Dude’s going to blow up. Years from now, people will be like “Yeah, Tom Brady was great, and an amazing story that he wasn’t drafted until the 6th round. But Nathan Peterman threw 5 interceptions in his first start, and went on to become the GOAT”.
I actually like Peterman, he was one of “my guys” coming out of Pitt. I’d love to see him do well.