I’ll post the updated ranking statistics later when yahoo is done processing them, but while stattracker still works I’m going to post the weeks 1-16 total scored.
Traditionally, as commissioner I write a congratulatory post to the champion at the end of the season (I missed 2011 due to total fantasy burnout – sorry Beef), so if everyone will indulge me…
I’m not great at gloating, so I’m going to point out that, with the resurgence of Philip Rivers (and possibly even without it), **Hamlet **has a better team than I do. He just does. However, once my RB situation sorted itself out (Zac Stacy!), the difference was small enough that I could win the championship due not to luck, but instead thanks to a series of purposeful, identifiable decisions made (or not made) by **Hamlet **and myself. In no particular order, these were:
I chose not to trade Carolina’s DEF. Towards the end of the season, I received a couple inquiries about the 3rd-ranked DEF, and **Hamlet **made a specific and very fair offer that I nearly accepted. But, I decided that I was all in on this current year, and really wanted the Panthers D in the playoffs, so I demurred. Good thing, too: Had I traded Carolina, I would have started Baltimore instead in the championship game, which means my DEF would have put up -2 instead of 18, which would have swung the game.
**Hamlet **chose not to play Julius Thomas or Eric Decker in the championship game. There are always “mistakes” in the starting lineup when an established player underperforms and/or a nobody has a good game, but there’s no responsibility there of course because it would have been idiotic to make the “right” play. However, **Hamlet **is cursed with a deep roster and several difficult decisions each week, and he chose wrong twice in Week 16. He played Vernon Davis instead of Thomas, and Keenan Allen instead of Decker – both totally defensible decisions, but if either one had been made differently, **Hamlet **would be our 2013 Champion.
**Hamlet **and I did not complete a trade for Vernon Davis. Hamlet has an overabundance of TEs, and my own Greg Olsen isn’t setting the world on fire, so I inquired about Davis about a month ago. Discussions never really went anywhere – the only concrete offer I made was DeAndre Hopkins for Davis – but had we completed a trade, I would have started Vernon Davis this week (who put up a 0), costing me 5.5 points, and **Hamlet **would have been forced to start Thomas and his 16.8, which means hamlet would have won by 10 instead of losing by 12.
Anyway, I think I’ll have a very good team next year. I’m at least good enough at QB (Romo/Ryan), and probably really strong at RB (Bush/Stacy/Martin) as well as WR (Megatron/Cobb/Blackmon/Crabtree/Fitzgerald), with plenty of good young prospect-types, at least a couple of whom should be productive starters in 2014. Excelsior!
Shucks, that’s awful kind to say, after beating me and all.
As I pointed out earlier, I have taken my views of playing poker to fantasy football, and if I’m happy with my lineup when I set it, there’s not much I can do. As you pointed out, I start Decker instead of Allen or Julius Thomas instead of Vernon Davis, I would have won. That would have killed me years ago, but now I’m think I made the right call with all the information I had, so I’m not going to beat myself up over it. I am a bit upset that I put in Adrian Peterson with his injury, but I figured I’d start my stud, despite the injury. I will, however, always hate Vernon Davis’ eye injury, Joe Flacco’s suckitude, and the Vikings’ defensive inability to keep them in the game. Woulda, coulda, shoulda.
I like my team going into next year. Obvious weakness at the QB position will need to be addressed, but I’ve added rookie of the year candidate Keenan Allen and stud TE Julius Thomas to my team, and I still have the best RB crew in the league.
I think the trading of future draft picks is so far a big success. It’s a good thing when the teams at the bottom of the standings can replenish their rosters more quickly, and next year **RNATB **has got 2 of the top 9 picks, **Ellis **has 3 of the first 14, while **dale **has three of the first 15, including 2 of the top 5. 2014 Draft Order
Round 1
furt
Ellis Dee
dalej42
RetroVertigo
dalej42 (via Stringer)
RNATB
Petey
Omniscient
RNATB (via Justin Bailey)
Ellis Dee (via SenorBeef)
Hamlet
VarlosZ
Round 2
furt
Ellis Dee
dalej42
RetroVertigo
Stringer
RNATB
Petey
VarlosZ (via Omniscient)
dalej42 (via Justin Bailey)
SenorBeef
Hamlet
Omniscient (via VarlosZ)
Round 3
furt
SenorBeef (via Ellis Dee)
dalej42
RetroVertigo
Stringer
RNATB
Petey
Omniscient
Justin Bailey
SenorBeef
Hamlet
VarlosZ
Rounds 4+
furt
Ellis Dee
dalej42
RetroVertigo
Stringer
RNATB
Petey
Omniscient
Justin Bailey
SenorBeef
Hamlet
VarlosZ
WR James Jones belongs to RNATB, RB Andre Ellington belongs to Beef.
Oh! And don’t forget that teams which added a net draft pick for next year have to make good on that numerical imbalance and exit the draft with exactly 25 players. dale, in fact, will have to surrender his last two picks in the draft as things stand.
Not an insurmountable problem, but it is a complication, and it can be easy to forget about these pick forfeitures, which can skew the final value in a trade. That’s why I (still) would encourage everyone who trades away or for future draft picks to make these trades numerically balanced in the next year. That way, everyone clearly reckons with exactly what they’ll give up or receive, and bookkeeping is much simpler.
Josh Gordon situations are exactly why I’m very careful with offseason trades. It looks like Justin Blackmon might also not have a job next year, at least with the Jags.
So, who’s the #1 pick? The RBs seem really unappetizing as a group; almost none of them appear to have a shot at first-year starting gigs. Watkins, I suppose, might actually go first.
**dale **has 2 of the first 5 picks (and 4 of the first 21). **Ellis **and **RNATB **also have two #1s. Lots of different ways this could go.
Bishop Sankey seems to have a clear path to playing time, with only uber-plodder Shonn Greene ahead of him. I think Andre Williams is probably the best long term prospect, but I’m not sure he’s ever caught a pass in his college career which is bad news for this format. Not sure what to make of Carlos Hyde at all. For me, a healthy Lattimore is a far better long term prospect, but he says he might not be fully healthy, so we’ll see.
Wouldn’t it be Manziel? He only has Brian Hoyer to beat out and he’s got the running yardage/TD’s that the other QB’s don’t. And QB seems to be tougher position to fill right now than WR.
But with Russell Wilson and Koepernick, furt isn’t exactly hurting for another young QB. I agree, Manziel is the clear top pick, but the trade negotiations for #1 overall should be interesting.
I’m basically screwed, since I don’t have the first clue who to take other than Manziel, who will likely be off the board. And to be honest, I’m not super in love with Manziel. Not enough to trade up for him, anyway.
I don’t have the first clue who the best non-Manziel is on the board. I’m leaning toward WR at this point, but who knows, maybe I’ll draft a crappy RB again.
I’ll go ahead and put it out there now, I’m looking to be pretty active this go around pre and during the draft. If your looking to make a move keep me in mind. I’ll also probably be sending out some offers as we get closer.