SDMB FF Dynasty League: Year Six

I *will *finish these. Expect Part 4 sometime in November.
RNATB (Nine Inch Neils)

    1. (6) Sammy Watkins (NO - WR) [traded to Varlos]
  1. (9) Devonta Freeman (Atl - RB)
  2. (18) Austin Seferian-Jenkins (TB - TE)
  3. (30) Brian Hartline (Mia - WR)
    Traded WR DeSean Jackson to Justin Bailey for WR Vincent Jackson
    Traded Watkins and 2015 3rd Rounder to Varlos for WR Brandin Cooks and 2015 1st Rounder

**The Good. **The Watkins trade has already been discussed, so Ill just reiterate that the trade itself was a good value, and the scenario that developed overall was preposterous value: just landing Cooks with the 6th overall pick would have been a minor steal, so you essentially picked up an extra 1st Round pick merely by having the consensus top guy fall to you. Devonta Freeman is a pretty good RB lottery ticket as far as these things go, just based on the fact that the starter in Atlanta is almost done. Sefarian-Jenkins is a totally reasonable pick (though I don’t think he’s the superb value you seem to; I see him more as having gone roughly where I would have expected).

The Bad. We must be ever-skeptical of our homerist impulses! Is this really the best move for our team, or are we just biased because of our rooting interest and the fact that we’ve read a lot more stuff about the guys on our teams? IMO, when making these choices we should take our honest evaluation of the player in question and then discount it somewhat in order to correct for bias.

More helpfully, Vincent Jackson is probably about equally as valuable as DeSean overall in dynasty, but I think your team should be trying to go younger instead of older. Same deal with Hartline: a good bet to be a productive WR4 or a non-disastrous WR3 this year (and possibly for a year or two after), but he has zero long-term upside, so for you it would have been best to take one of the interesting rookies still on the board (Sims, White, or Carr, especially). Freeman, as I said, was fine, but still he’s a 4th Round RB, and ultimately those guys are pretty unlikely to break out; I think there was simply much better value at WR (Matthews, Cooks) at that point, especially as WR was a much bigger area of need for you heading into the draft.

**The Overall. A-. **A minor demerit for going old when you should have stayed young, but one can’t deny that you helped your team immensely with this draft.
Hamlet (CuteWiddleBunny)

  1. (11) Kelvin Benjamin (Car - WR)
  2. (23) Marqise Lee (Jax - WR)
  3. (35) Matt Asiata (Min - RB)

The Good. Benjamin has immediate value, which is what you want for an obvious contender, in addition to being a fine long-term value at the 11th pick. Lee may well have been the best player remaining on the board at #23 (even if the early returns in Jax suggest that Allen Robinson will be the WR1 there). I *guess *grabbing Peterson’s handcuff was smart, but, you know, that’s a wasted pick like 90% of the time – I mean, what are the odds?

**The Bad. **Benjamin’s fine, but I do think most factors would argue for Cooks instead: higher-drafted, went to a better offense, three years younger. Benjamin will contribute right away, but so will Cooks. Benjamin does have the upside to be a super-star that Cooks probably lacks, but I don’t the difference as all that big, and anyway Cooks’ upside (Wes Welker, basically) is pretty great in itself. Also, kidding aside, you’re actually pretty well situated to survive an Adrian Peterson injury/suspension – if Jamaal Charles isn’t Out, Asiata really might not crack your starting lineup anyway – so since he’s not going to help you *too *much this year, better to grab a RB who might have long-term value (Sims).

The Overall. B+. Workmanlike, but effective. Just took the useful players who were still on the board.

Don’t forget to rate my 2 picks Varlos. Well, three I guess.

Anyway, I was concerned that my team got off to quite a flat start. But it responded by putting up the highest score yet in the league in week 2.

I’m actually third place in my division with two being off to 2-0 starts. I’m not sure that’s happened since our first year. Particularly concerning, Isotopes has a 2-0 division start, albeit mostly circumstance since he has the fewest points scored in the division.

Current season projections put me at 13-1, Hamlet at 13-1, and Varlos at 12-2. Of course that’s quite unlikely - the nature of yahoo’s projection system turns a small projected advantage into a 5-10 point projected win every week and isn’t really a prediction tool, with an eye towards variance and such, but simply adding up all the weekly predictions. The power rankings (projected points scored by week 16) is a more useful prediction tool, and that puts me on top, a bit ahead of Hamlet and significantly ahead of Varlos. Stringer takes up fourth, and surprisingly RNATB slightly beats out Justin Bailey in the 5 slot, probably all on the back of Gio.

Incidentally, I may be interested in selling Bobby Rainey, but I may also hold onto him. Doug Martin has been running for like Trent Richardson YPC numbers even when he’s on the field, whereas Rainey seems to be productive every time they put them in. I was going to try to sell him to Varlos as a handcuff, but I wonder if this is a stash and see sort of prospect, with a not insignificant chance to take over TB’s running game.

lights up the RNATB signal

Oh, I wanted to address this. Yeah, I was wrong, but he did earn the gameball from PFF and have the game winning reception (to set up a chip shot field goal anyway).

So, yeah, fantasywise that stuff doesn’t matter, but I wasn’t totally wrong about him having a good day.

I actually like the little guy quite a bit. Finds separation, good hands, savvy route runner. Wes Welker is his ceiling, and while I doubt he’ll ever reach that with an inconsistent Hoyer at QB, I think he could score in the 150-200 point range with a high floor, so that’s useful.

Yeah he had a big catch after I posted that. I just like razzing ya bud.

Oh, I know, I just didn’t want to sell the little smurf short.

Watching Graham again, that guy is fucking amazing. A few times the Browns had blanket coverage on him and it just didn’t matter. There was no one to physically match up with him. Obviously the biggest (in retrospect) mistake I’ve ever made in this league was trading Graham for Richardson.

It obviously looked like a good deal at the time - I was coming off record-setting seasons with Gronk and Graham and wanted to use one to balance out my roster. Richardson looked like he was going to be one of the very few bell cow backs in the league. I’m honestly not sure how much homerism influenced the decision, since it makes sense from a fantasy perspective if you expect Richardson to be a 300+ carry guy for 5+ years. And Gronk ended up being an injury mess. But damn would my team be sweet if I still had Gronk, or if I traded him for a better asset (since I’d have Cameron/Gronk/Graham)

Also, fuck the NFL, but it looks like I’m going to have Gordon back for the fantasy playoffs. That’s something.

First place, bitches!

The last thing I need is more running backs. Anyway, Rainey isn’t going to keep the job when Martin comes back.

I have to imagine Yahoo is projecting down after my team’s woeful display this weekend. Just six points from Matt Forte… that’s disgraceful.

Well, you might be surprised, but I quite confidently predicted I’d be competitive this year. Remember, Matt Schaub has been my quarterback for five years.* Aside from him, my team is and has been pretty good. I’ve been trying to trade for a QB for years; if I had known Matt Ryan was available for a first rounder or so I would have offered two of them years ago.

*I started out with Carson Palmer, but dropped him during his “retirement” of 2010ish.

You might not be surprised, but I was the scoring champ last year. My team usually starts out strong, so I am definitely surprised, and not in a good way.

I’ll trade you one of my wins for a couple of first rounders.

That’s what got me in this mess in the first place!

Heh. For what it’s worth, I am having serious regrets about the DeSean Jackson trade. I mostly wanted to get rid of him because I don’t trust RGIII, and Jackson is unproductive without good quarterback play (look at his 2011/2012 numbers, especially the touchdowns). Now he’s got Cousins, and Josh McCown is playing like absolute shit. Plus, the Buccaneers aren’t going downfield at all; we haven’t attempted a single pass over 20 yards from the LOS in two games.

That’s funny. I traded V-Jax to you because I didn’t trust McCown as a QB.

I don’t either but V-Jax seems like he should be able to succeed with bad QB play. Tedford needs to realize McCown should be throwing it downfield on every play.

I don’t want Adrian Peterson on my team anymore. Knowing what he did to his 4 year old kid, I can’t root for him, and he makes fantasy football less fun for me. Even though Jamaal Charles just went down and that I don’t have much after him, I simply don’t want him.

I sent out a few offers. I’m looking for a RB in return. I’m a “motivated seller”, so shoot me your offers.

It’s funny how fantasy football makes ghouls of us all. Bobby Rainey is playing too well, and threatening to seriously eat into Doug Martin’s carries when he gets back from injury. Consequently, a small (large) part of me wants to see him break his leg in tonight’s game.

IIRC, it was a Rainey injury that saved me in my game against Beef last year: he went into Monday night needing only a few points from him, but he got hurt on the game’s opening drive and I skated by with like a 3 point win. I was pretty pumped then, too.

And he’s dropped, free for anyone to take. sigh

V-Jax touchdown is a tiny crumb of comfort on a night when my team got crushed like a high school JV chelating squad.

God damn it, Ellis! Are you gonna fuck me again? How am I always matched up against you for the one week when the Giants decide not to play like shit?

I was projected for a 35-point win, but now I’ve gotta hope for 40+ points from Greg Olsen, Emmanuel Sanders, and Carolina’s D.