I’m thinking Harris will win MI and WI, but (barely) lose PA…but she’ll win NV and NC (while losing GA and AZ), which gives her 273 EC’s and the win. (If NC and PA were just a little closer in populations, we wouldn’t have to wait for Nevada to declare Harris the winner…but sadly, PA still has more people than NC, so my scenario would make for a long-ish night, even without any delays due to very close state totals, e.g. in PA).
Click “Share Map” (teal button a little southeast of Florida). Copy the URL it generates. Paste that URL here.
Again can just share the URL with .png at the end for an image. Not sure why this is not the default, I’m guessing it’s because of clicks and ads and stuff.
My apologies, Aspenglow. Won’t happen again.
is it possible that if this happens, we get a faithless elector to flip to the popular vote winner?
I hope I’m wrong.
I hope you’re wrong, too.
But can I ask you why you have Louisiana deep blue on such a grim map? If it’s not a mistake I’d like to hear your reasoning.
Oh my! That’s what I get for trying to do it on my phone! Switch LA obviously. So Trump at 302.
Which is probably optimistic - if it actually goes this way WI is almost certainly red too. So Trump 312 is probably a better guess (that’s the modal result at 538 right now). So here is my updated map with the LA thing fixed and WI going along with the rest of the rust belt.
Here’s my most pessimistic map. Making this actually made me feel better about Harris’s chances since even under this scenario, she only has to pick up any of Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina, or Arizona (Iowa wouldn’t be enough). If she does that, then certainly PA and WI would follow.
This map is not what I think will definitely occur, but I can’t decide what will happen in those swing states to commit to any one rosy scenario.
Okay hopefully this work and hopefully I am correct or even wrong and VP Harris gets more…
Your map matches mine exactly. I’m not happy with this prediction but it seems the most likely one given polling.
However, I will admit, IF polling is way off in favor of Harris, the map could end up looking very different. But I don’t give it much more than 25% going in her favor.
I’m leaning towards this.
I think the blue wall holds and the south adds a little breathing room.
This is as conservative as I can see it going, with Harris winning five of seven battleground states (Blue Wall + NV and NC).
I have a blue AZ saving Kamala… but it could easily go red and give it to Trump
Pretty sure you are. Harris loses ALL of the swing states?! Not gonna happen. She sweeps the rust belt, wins Pennsylvania and picks up either Georgia or North Carolina.
Harris 294 EVs at worst which means she can lose one of those states (and assuming as you do that she loses both NV and AZ which is questionable) and still wins.
The dream map:
Here’s mine:
I’ve got Trump taking AZ due to immigration, and Harris picking up NC because the GOP gubernatorial candidate is such a fucking freakshow. I’m also going to go out on a limb and say Harris picks up all 4 ME EVs.
(I’m not actually this optimistic, but trying to manifest confidence.)
According to Nate Silver, the polling may be off. His newsletter over the weekend said that all except two pollsters show signs of “herding,” which he explained is when polls would be outliers, so the pollsters don’t publish them–they publish the ones that come out close to the herd. The two exceptions, according to Silver, are NYT Siena, and Ann Selzer. Those two also are the highest quality polls in Silver’s model.
Both of those pollsters have been getting numbers that have Harris leading in states that other polls show as a dead heat, or have Trump ahead. The discrepancy is within the margin of error, but it may suggest which way the margin of error could move the race.
Ann Selzer just produced a poll for the DeMoines Register that shows Harris ahead there whereas no one else has it as anything but dark red. When she was asked about what would explain it, she pointed to the abortion ban that went into effect over the summer.
Here’s my slightly optimistic map.
I did not award PA or MI to anyone because I didn’t have to. Those two states plus GA will be the closest, I think, and Harris will only need one of them. I awarded her GA, because I think minority and women voters will turn out for Harris.