There’s a lot of stuff in this post that is making me uneasy. I don’t have time to quantify it right now. For the moment I will
unvote Biotop
For what it is worth I am not following a bandwagon for reasons to vote. My reasons are my own, probably bad, but then again nothing new there.
I know I am town
I think JB is town because he had a vote that sealed SNF fate, ok could be a scum bus, but still.
Kimble I am not sure or, however I think their 3rd vote and unvote on SNF makes them unlikely at the moment.
Septimus for same reason, swapping vote at last minute when either me (I know I am town so I can make this determination) or he Prof seams to likely attract a lot of attention to him, so I doubt a scum septimus would do that.
that leaves you and Fair Rarity
I kind of agree with Kimbles’ thinking there, what’s the unease?
Given the hypothesis that there are only two scum and no power roles it is a reasonable extrapolation.
I am a bit concerned we rapidly all ended up on Biotop with a few days still to go. Going to be a quiet few days if we all stay with our votes.
I suppose we either have the last scum, or there are two more, and one is hiding and voting for their buddy, or just one more and happy to have Bio lynched.
If we move on to someone else I don’t see it flushing out any scum moves, but may at least poke some others into action. ( yes I know, rich coming from me)
Unvote biotop
Vote Fair Varity
Can’t fault your logic, but I believe you are coming to that conclusion genuinely and are not scum trying to blend in.
Reading recent postings by Johnny Bravo, PCM, Fair Rarity, and, probably, Kimble, I’m increasingly convinced that all y’all are Town.
If the Biotop Lynch doesn’t end the game, I won’t know where to turn.
I’ve been trying to figure it out, and I think I have.
My problem is with the hypothesis. I’ve been operating under the assumption that this is a simple game with standard power roles because that’s what was advertised, and that’s how I’ve been playing. A game with no power roles whatsoever is neither simple nor standard.
Kimble says:
“It sure looks like town doesn’t have any power roles.”
But why? We’re only two days in. A town detective could easily be hoping for another day’s worth of results. A town doctor would have only had two chances thus far to protect somebody. Who would reasonably know that town doesn’t have two power roles?
Scum would. A scum who started on a two-man scum team with no godfather could reasonably assume that a 9-man town team has no power roles.
Maybe I’m just obtuse, but I never would have come to a conclusion at this point in the game.
If we really do have no power roles and there are two scum remaining then I’m afraid we’re in a very precarious position and have been from the beginning of the game. If there’s only one scum left then we obviously have a lot more wiggle room.
For some reason I thought we started with 11 players, not 10. Adjust numbers in the previous post accordingly.
Looking at the numbers, I think we have to concede one of two possibilities.
Either we are playing a game with two scum and no power roles.
Or we are playing a game with three scum and power roles.
A game with three scum and no power roles would mean that town loses control of the vote after only a second mislynch, with no way to mitigate that. Since day one is almost always going to be a mislynch, that means town is almost guaranteed to lose.
My post was written somewhat hastily. I’ll admit there’s still a chance that we do have power roles and a 7/3 town/scum split. However, I think 8/2 with no power is likely enough (80-90% or so, based on my gut reaction to the odds I’d accept on a bet). I haven’t done a thorough mathematical analysis and I don’t want to speculate too much about what power roles we might have, but I think we would have seen the effects of them by now if only from sachertorte’s reveals.
Re: “A game with no power roles whatsoever is neither simple nor standard”: I don’t have a lot of experience playing mafia – just two complete “newbie” games at mafiascum.net and parts of a couple of others. It seems to me that no power is as “simple” as can be, but (1) I don’t have the experience to say so, and (2) I do agree that it’s very uncommon – and now that I think about it, it’s uncommon enough that I’d move my likelihood of 7/3 + power up a tiny bit.
I also suspect there were only two Scum, and no Town Power roles with possible exception of Scotsman. I’ve said so previously so, if this makes me suspicious, Johnny, feel free to revote me. 
If there were 3 Scum, I think Town would need at least a Cop and a Doc for balance, so the fact that no one has claimed, and that no power has been killed increases the chance. As does the fact that by now I have strong Town leans on everyone but Biotop.
There’s a further meta-reason. Town would be at a disadvantage 7-3 even with power roles, so I think that in that case Moderator might have jumped at the chance to get an 11th player and make it 8-3. (We did have an 11th player come knocking late, but he was turned away.)
> “A game with no power roles whatsoever is neither simple nor standard.”
It may not be “standard” these days, but it is the simple pure form of the game. Relying on a Cop, and the luck of the Cop escaping NK, reduces excitement and need for skill.
I suppose we can argue about semantics later - I just think of default Mafia as a game with power roles. I say it’s not ‘simple’ because I think the default strategies assume making space and giving time for power roles to start going to work.
In any case, the point is well taken that Kimble wasn’t the first to float the idea. You did, too, but you’ve been on my scum list for a while.
If we are in fact at one scum left, it gives us a little more time. Let’s see where things go.
vote Biotop
If you’re town, at least you’ve been throwing lots of data out there that will be confirmed after you die.
I tried my best. Go town!
You know, this Dead Guy Posting is not such a bad thing. I no longer have to worry if I am going to post some word that will get me in trouble. I don’t have to wonder if anyone is going to trust me because they’re not. I have a kind of freedom from frustration that is quite cathartic. I could be upset but I still expect to be part of the winning Town team.
I think there probably are only 2 Scum and no power roles. Any power role person would have almost had to have responded by now just to clear it up for us and no one did. With no power roles I agree 3 scum out of 10 would be unbalanced. So while I am about to die, I still have a highly probable chance to win, and if Town still manages to screw this up then I am not going to feel particularly responsible because dammit I told you all I was innocent six sides of Sunday and you didn’t listen no matter what I said. Sorry if that sounds smug, but I only half mean it that way. I have been wrong many times before.
So, anyway, if I gotta die I am in a good place.
That said, once I am gone and you have to find the last Scum, I hope you will choose between **septimus **and PCM. Up until yesterday I was pretty certain about septimus, but PCM ** coming down so harshly on me earlier for using “lynch” instead of “night kill” and then taking JB’**s bait and unvoting me so he could be on the right side of my mislynch is telling.
**Kimble **could be Scum but I can’t find any real evidence. I thought maybe his lurking hid evil intentions, but I can’t find anything else.
**Fair Rarity ** voted for **snfaulkner **and kept the vote there till he was lynched. With only two Scum, that play makes no sense at all if she is Scum. **FR ** may be new, but she seems much smarter than that.
My odds as to who is the last Scum:
**septimus **: 50%
PCM: 35%
Kimble: 11%
Fair Rarity: 3.999%
**JB **: 0.001%
I hope you all come back to this post toMorrow and give it a real look when you HAVE to trust me. Because I am the dead innocent guy, and even though I was lynched toDay I am still finding a legal way to post toMorrow. I am just doing it toDay.
Hell, I am even going back in this post just to edit it for the pure fun of it! Ahhhhhh
Crap. I didn’t get a chance to ask this at work – someone was out and I had to cover his 4-hours-earlier shift.
@**Biotop **(and whoever else wants to answer): Do you have anything to say about snfaulkner apparently sheeping septimus’s votes to some extent? (Posts 51/53 and 186/194.) I’d think that scum would be more likely to sheep town, but I could (very easily) be wrong.
The Day has Ended.
Unlike the previous Days the Town found their target quickly and stuck to their decision. None of this last minute mind-changing… Biotop needed to be stopped and that was that.
Biotop, an Assassin is dead.
The next morning the Town wakes up to discover that no one is dead! Huzzah the threat has been vanquished. Town Wins.
Biotop, a Assassin Detective, and snfaulkner, a Lead Assassin, played a wonderful game but did not win. The Assassin Detective could investigate at night. The Lead Assassin would deceive the Town Detective if investigated.
Prof. Pepperwinkle, a Simpleton
Mahaloth, a Simpleton
Precambrianmollusc, a Simpleton
TexCat, a Simpleton
Kimble, a Simpleton
septimus, a Simpleton
Johnny Bravo, a Simpleton
and
Fair Rarity, a Town Detective
have won.
…holy shit, wow.
Well played, town! Wooo! We did the things!
Sorry for crawling up your ass, septimus. 
I realized when I did post #283 that I had way more reason to vote Biotop than you.
Well played, scum. Especially you, Biotop. You’re really good at sincerity. At the end I was 90% convinced that we were lynching town, but that it would be okay because there was only one scum remaining.
The 10 player game was tricky to balance. As the players deduced, the number of scum needed to be 2 or 3. I felt 3 was really pushing it since that would only allow 2 mislynches before Town lost (while needing 3 correct lynches to win). With 2, the situation was reversed with scum needing 3 mislynches to win and town needing 2 correct ones. I felt this was more fair, though admittedly a harder road for scum.
The setup did not allow Biotop and snfaulkner to talk at night. It is my opinion that scum powers (which I wanted to give to the vastly out-numbered scum) are too overpowered when coordinated. So I made it so they had an extra power (detective) but could not discuss and coordinate them.
snfaulker helpfully pointed out to me that as a first time scummer, scum talk would have been a significant relief and added to his enjoyment; which in retrospect makes a lot of sense. I still like the idea of not allowing scum to coordinate scum powers since that is too overpowered, but isolating scum can be needlessly stressful.
Night One both snfaulker and Biotop targeted Mahaloth.
Night One Fair Rarity investigated Precambrianmollusc.
Night Two Biotop could no longer investigate as he took over the scum kill.
Night Two Fair Rarity investigated Biotop.
Oh! Yay! My first win!
Good game, snf and Bio. I thought Bio had the highest probability of being scum, but he had pretty much convinced me that today would be a mislynch. (I wasn’t so convinced as to unvote for him, but I thought there was like a 40-something percent chance he was scum.)
I’m sorry I didn’t post enough. All the other games I’d played had two-week Day phases, so my posting rate wasn’t too far out of the ordinary. I lost computer access at work during the game, so I was restricted to phone posts without my notes while there.
Thanks for running the game, sachertorte! One question: How common is it for moderators to only give alignment on flips?
Time to check out the watchalong thread!
Yay! And good game, scum. I thought we were lucky to get SNF, and I’d have been voting Kimble and not Biotop toDay.
Interesting that scum couldn’t talk. So on N1, Biotop investigated the same person that SNF killed. Did yall try to leave hints in thread about what you were going to do at night?
Thanks for game Sacher!
Very difficult setup for scum. Perhaps a compromise might have been to allow a single simultaneous message per night through the mod?
Thanks for the game, Sach!