Simpletown Mafia the Third

And Fair Rarity, I don’t mean to single you out. You have the excuse of being new. Kimble and PCM are just as culpable in our game. I suspect one of the two is Scum, and thus has a nefarious excuse. But what about the other? How are we supposed to figure out what is going on with either player?

I am the one with votes on me, so maybe I shouldn’t be calling them out. But if my team loses this game and either **Johnny Bravo **or **septimus ** is on the winning team, then I can congratulate them on playing a good game. I don’t have a gripe with my opponents for playing a strong game. That’s what makes this fun.

Win or lose, however, I have a problem if my team members do not seem to be giving it their best. Better to try and make mistakes than to lurk.

I’m back in town, but I’m too tired for a reread tonight. That will have to wait until tomorrow.

septimus’s words seems scummy to me, as I’ve mentioned before. There have been a couple of times where he’s tried to defend himself with an incomplete list of possibilities (leaving out snf at the end of Day 2, not mentioning that his late Day 1 vote could have been to protect FR instead of PCM). However, the fact that snfaulkner seemed to be following sep’s voting pattern (PP votes: sep 51, snf 53; JB votes: sep 186, snf 194) makes him look townier to me.

I’m still suspicious of PCM. **JB **is likely town, but septimus being scum would make JB’s vote switch at the end of D2 look more null than town. A part of my switching to snf yesterday was to see how **FR **would react to bandwagon. The fact that she didn’t move makes me think she’s more likely to be town. Biotop’s been playing in a pro-town manner, but not so much as to eliminate the possibility of his being scum.

Okay, I went through and looked at most of snfaulkner’s posts as well as posts that relate to him, trying to see what I could see. Here is what I found.

Post #47: **Biotop **looked up the previous games. I’ve managed to miss this post twice. If I hadn’t, I would have seen that the “assassin” we killed was probably just a vanilla scum (skimming is a scum tell - string me up). Why didn’t anybody correct me on that when I mentioned that I was hoping I’d gotten rid of their nightkiller? Specifically, why didn’t Biotop?

Post #51: **septimus **votes for and then unvotes snfaulkner.

Post #81:** Johnny Bravo **calls out snfaulkner, like a total boss. That’s right, I’m patting my own damned back. Also important because it’s the first scuffle I get into.

Post #89: Biotop gives his “soapbox” speech and says he’d like to see what 'we can all do about finding promising targets." He then does not comment on the argument snfaulkner and Johnny Bravo have been having.

Post #106: snfaulkner wonders how many scum might be in this game. **Kimble **and Mahaloth respond. Minor town cred for Kimble. I don’t know that scum would have responded so quickly.

Post #159: Fair Rarity Starts Day 2 with a vote on snfaulkner. Bad reasoning for the vote. Hm.

Post #163: Another long **Biotop **post that does not mention snfaulkner.
Post #165: Another one.

Post #167: **Biotop posts EoD summary - very mild accustation against snfaulkner. No followup. Instead pivots to wonder why oh why Johnny Bravo **and **Kimble **didn’t try and save Prof. P

Post #171: snfaulkner explains why he showed up late to the EoD party.

Post #172: snfaulkner compliments **Biotop **for his great, super townie post. Also says that Biotop is a super tricksy player. Also says he has a “perma-FoS” on Biotop. Now, I might be wrong but I don’t believe **Biotop **ever responded to any of that. These notes are being taken as I go, so if I notice that I’m wrong I’ll come back and revise.

snfaulkner then goes on to discredit **Johnny Bravo’**s scum-**Biotop **theory that Mahaloth was killed because he was experienced, instead choosing to vote for Fair Rarity, who has already received attention from Biotop.

post #174: snfaulkner unvotes Fair Rarity, but is still suspicious.

post #193: snfaulkner quotes septimus’s “case” against Johnny Bravo, saying that he’s been “pushing really hard against **Biotop **for just pointing out basic strategy.” Doesn’t vote for me. Reiterates that he’s suspicious of Biotop, but not really.

Post #194: snfaulkner votes for Johnny Bravo for “reasons stated previous” (all by septimus). Declares Fair Rarity “a close second.”

Post #196: **TexCat **questions snfaulkner about what he will think about **Biotop **if **Johnny ****Bravo **is lynched. This questioning is probably part of what led to his night kill.

Post #198: snfaulkner reiterates that he has no reason to think **Biotop **is scum. He’s just a great player!

Post #199: snfaulkner lays the groundwork for what he hopes will be a **Johnny ****Bravo **lynch. “Wow, I sure was stupid!” Note that he does NOT say that if **Johnny ****Bravo **flips town, maybe he might possibly have been right about Biotop, nor even entertain the notion that I would at least have been arguing honestly.

Posts #212/213: Just some scum flailing.

Post #221: **Biotop posts a rundown of everyone in the game. Go read his summary of snfaulkner. He calls him “scummish” but says “that’s a lot of postings basically saying he doesn’t know what is going on.” I think I have shown to this point that there was plenty of material from snfaulkner by this point. It looks more and more like Biotop has been purposefully keeping a distance from snfaulkner.

The day wraps up from there in its specataular fashion.

**Septimus **and **Biotop **are still coming through as scummy to me. The question is who needs to get lynched first.

We have time to keep talking. I’m not jumping on the bandwagon yet.

I am Town. I think Biotop is Scum. If there’s a 3rd Scum it’s Kimble or PCM. I’d lean toward Kimble, who snuggled TexCat and another Player, and who Biotop called Scummish but only “slightly” so – see below. Most likely, however, may be that Biotop is the only remaining Scum.

I know that I’ve failed one of the primary duties of a Townie – to avoid being suspected and possibly misLynched. I have a tendency to blurt, and sometimes I’m lazy. I was lazy this game, not appreciating the case against Biotop until Johnny got adamant. (I’m afraid I had lingering suspicion of Johnny from his false case agianst me in a recent game. :smack: )

Bad, lazy player? I plead guilty as charged.
Scum? No.
I wish I knew what I could point to, or what questions to answer to demonstrate my innocence. (Part of the case against me is the idea that Biotop and I are Scum partners bussing each other. But that case collapses if Biotop is Town, so if I’m Scum so is Biotop. At least Lynch him first.)

[QUOTE=Biotop in #221]
Kimble: Too quiet. I appreciate Post’s like #207, where Kimble points out that the voters on Johnny Bravo being the same as the voters on Prof. Pepperwinkle. I hadn’t noticed this. This is the kind of postings we need. Unfortunately, they have been few and far between this game. It still bothers me that after Prof. Pepperwinkle’s suicide post, that Kimble (Post #134) only responds to protest the Professor’s vote switch to him, and does not comment on the player’s impending suicide at all. On the other hand, I think Scum would likely find themselves scarce at that time, and Kimble did post. Read: Slightly Scummish.

Precambrianmollusc: A leading vote-getter on Day 1 gets no votes at all on Day 2. It’s quite strange, until one considers that the Day 1 vote was merely based on PCM’s reasonless vote of Mahaloth. Way too quiet until very recently, but I still get a Town vibe. Read:Townish.
[/QUOTE]

I said my things to say in my post? Like how I picked SNF at random but had a feeling I was accidentally right. And that your behavior is giving me that same feeling. I don’t think I’ll be “accidentally” right if others agree with me. I’ll be good old fashioned right.

My play is what it is. I didn’t have much to build a case on the first day and nothing I could put into words the second day. Talking just to up my post count certainly would not help the Town cause. I answer when called out and give my opinion when I can articulate something to back it up. That’s the way I choose to be helpful, rather than just generate more confusing noise.

Think of me like Silent Bob. He doesn’t say a lot but when he does, it’s important.

Ok so from a re read
PCM - town
JB probably town - lots of town cred for last vote on SNF
Kimble - I was suspicious way back they used TCs reasoning as a justification for their initial “got to vote for someone vote” waaaat back. Post 77 for those who care. Kind of had them in the fuzzy scum camp , however in post 207 they voted to get 3 votes on SNF. That’s a hell of a dangerous move if they were scum, in a game so small. And if they were scum bussing SNF why did they invote in 228?
So in town camp for the moment.

So bioT , fairR and septimus.
Septimus did some vote swapping way back on day one, I have trouble thinking why a scum would expose themselves this. Also septimus managed to get themselves lynched when they were the town doc/detective a few games back , leading cause of suspicion for that was breaking ties so I suspect he knows that’s going to attract some heat.
Slight town for the moment

So Fair R or BioT , or why not both?
If we have any power roles it could be just one more scum not that it makes much difference.

So back in 172 we had SNF snuggle Bio, and also cast aspersions on Fair rarity but doesn’t really go any where, certainly not with the vigor he went after others .

I was getting paranoid that scum could communicate during the day , and there was a big ass scum bus.

Damn keep hitting enter too soon.
Anyway
Vote Biotop

I guess it is time to post “volumes.” Here is my response to **JB’**s extensive post #283.

This post is a textbook example of what goes wrong when you go looking for evidence to prove a belief instead of looking at the evidence to establish a belief.

++Post #47: Accusation-- I am accused of not correcting Johnny Bravo because I looked up previous Simpletown games and found one where one of four teams were “assassins.” Later** Johnny Bravo**, upon reading that snfaulkner was an “assassin” wonders what that role means…and why I didn’t correct him because I had posted about it on Day 1.

Defense-- By the time I came into the game after work on Saturday, my agenda consisted of combating the two votes already against me, trying to get Fair Rarity to post more than just votes for the players who voted against her, and making the strong case against** septimus**. The **Johnny Bravo **comment on assassins wasn’t on my radar. I barely noticed it and didn’t give it much of a thought. If I was Scum, I probably would have latched on to it and tried to “correct” Johnny Bravo to give me Town Cred.

++Post #51:** septimus** votes and unvotes snfaulkner. No argument from me there. Looks like easy harmless bussing.

++Post #81: Johnny Bravo calls out snfaulkner. No argument from me. Good for you.

++Post: #89: Accusation-- I make my “soapbox” speech but fail to mention the Johnny Bravo/snfaulkner controvery.

Defense-- In that post I mentioned three particular cases. I talked about **Prof. Pepperwinkle **because I had called him out very early on in the game for his response to TexCat, and I was trying to get a read on a discussion I was semi-involved with at the time. In doing so, I used the Precambrianmollusc terse Mahaloth vote post as an example of a player I thought was Town and why— but that comment was intended primarily to get Prof. Pepperwinkle to look for something more than just lurking. It wasn’t part of any rundown of the whole game. I even posted it as an “example.” Finally I commented on the recently-posted vote from Fair Rarity that had raised my eyebrow and had not yet been commented on by others. I am sorry I did not get around to posting about everyone involved in the game at that point. Why does this make me Scum?

++Post 106: No need to comment on this one as I am unsure of the implications.

++Post #159Fair Rarity makes a baseless vote on snfaulkner. As you say, “hm.” Still it was an important vote in lynching snfaulkne****r so credit where credit is due.

++ Post #163 and #165 Accusation—I made long posts without mentioning snfaulkner.

Defense:-- Huh? Post #163 is a post defending myself against the accusations you, JB, made against me. Why should I be talking about snfaulkner??? Post #165 is a response to septimus for finally not posting in verse. I had been just about ready to vote for him had he continued to post that way. I then asked him specific follow-up questions to his post. Why would this posting have anything to do with snfaulkner? You could just as well ask everyone who was posting, but not posting about snfaulker, why they were not.

++Post #167 Accusation-- I summed up the day making only a “mild” accusation against snfaulkner. I never followed it up.

Defense: I posted the timeline for EOD on Day 1. I thought then as I do now that much more should have been done to stop Prof. Pepperwinkle’s suicide. It was an angry post, but that’s how I felt. snfaulkner showed up conveniently late. I correctly pointed this out as suspicious. However, I was more concerned with the acknowledged people who were online at the time, and I wanted to hear from others who may have been there but did not own up to it. This whole post was me trying to make sense of what happened and wanting answers. At this point I am also agitated with Johnny Bravo, who had been making increasingly baseless accusations against me and I was unfortunately wasting more time becoming fixated with our argument than the game. I did follow up on my thoughts later on snfaulkner in Post #221 where I labelled him as “Scummish.”

++Post 171 and #172: Accusation: I don’t follow up on snfaulkner’s” FOS” on me.

Defense: snfaulkner said I made a great post and then made a half-hearted FOS on me because of my play in a previous game. I didn’t comment on this because at the time I was much more involved in the debate with Johnny Bravo which was not half-hearted. What was there to comment on regarding snfaulkner anyway? I liked my post that he was commenting on, and I was Scum in the previous game. Where’s the debate? Seriously, is this your case on me** Johnny**? To implicate me, you JB, also accuse** snfaulkner** of voting for the same person I had been rightly calling out for lurking. Isn’t that what Scum like SNF do? They latch onto Townie cases where they can hide.

++ Posts #193-194-- snfaulkner unvotes Fair Rarity after her single response. He then joins septimus’ case against Johnny Bravo. He is obviously trying to pick on which Townie case to join and give traction. Yet this…implicates me??

++ Post 196: – Accusation: **TexCat **is lynched partly because she showed up with this post asking snfaulkner about me.

Defense: I believe **TexCat **was lynched because she voted for snfaulkner and thus, like Johnny Bravo and (lesser so) Fair Rarity made a strong case for being Town. Of these, she would likely be the Scum choice because Johnny Bravo would be sure to continue to go after a mislynch of me, and Fair Rarity was hardly playing.

++Post #198-199: Accusation: I am Scum because snfaulkner praised my previous Scum game and does not say I would be Scum if JB flips Town.

Defense: **snfaulkner **is responding to TexCat’s question about me. That’s what Scum do, of course. They praise their Scum buddies. Brilliant! Who could possibly see through that? Sigh. No actually Scum generally do not go out of their way to praise their partners.

Of course, had he not praised me I am sure that would have made **Johnny Bravo’**s list as well. SNF doesn’t say what alliance I might be if Johnny Bravo flips Town, but instead prepares a defense for himself if and when his desired lynch goes through. Why does this make me Scum?

++ Post #212-213: Agreed.

++Post #221: Accusation: I made a half-hearted accusation against SNF and distanced myself from him the whole game.

Defense: Baloney. I rightly labelled his behavior as Scummish.” The only player I gave a higher Scum rating on my player assessment was** Fair Rarity,** the player I was voting for at the time. I felt like I did last game after SNF had been posting a lot but yet I couldn’t remember much of what he had posted. I think in hindsight it is easy to see that a lot more of his postings were scummy, but that’s the value of hindsight. Your accusation of “distancing” is unfair because I had to spend most of my time defending myself from the accusations YOU made against me, Johnny Bravo. Even the people voting for snfaulkner were not out exactly sounding the horn for him to go down. It was not obvious. I didn’t think his case was a slam dunk, and most players at the time must have agreed with me because only three ended up voting for SNF.

Anything else you want me to answer?

Texcat wasn’t lynched, unless that’s what you scum call murdering people.

Oh good grief.

So now I am going to try and sum up what I am thinking about the game. If I get lynched, at least you have my thoughts.

I think we have one current player who is pretty much confirmed Town: Johnny Bravo. Why do I say this? His was the vote that put snfaulkner over the line. Without his switch we would have lynched septimus. But couldn’t Johnny Bravo just be bussing a comrade, you ask? I do not think so and here is why:

In order for this game to make sense, we have to assume that Scum have reasons for what they do and that they want to win. Otherwise, what is there to go on?

We know there were certainly either two or three Scum at the start of the game
.
If there were two Scum, Town is already in a position where they will almost certainly win this game no matter who is lynched this round. With an even number of players and two dropping off each round, the only way for a single remaining Scum member to survive now would be for that player to last until the final round of two players and win a coin toss in the tie. However, the remaining single Scum could also choose not to kill anyone during the last night, and thus lead to a showdown threeway where the Scum player would hope not to get lynched. Neither of these scenarios gives a single remaining Scum player much of a shot. So if **Johnny Bravo **were one of two Scum total in the game, he would hardly vote to lynch his only partner when other options were readily available.

But say there were three Scum, not two. Now **Johnny Bravo **might well bus a fellow player, right? No. If there are three Scum then a Scum **Johnny Bravo **would have had his team control the vote if we had made a misynch the last round. They would have almost assuredly won. The only possible but remote scenario for JB to be Scum is if Johnny Bravo and septimus are both Scum, and thus wherever Johnny Bravo had put his final vote (septimus or SNF) would have been bad for Scum. But JB could have voted for me at EOD and did not. That would have created a three-way tie with still a one third chance of Scum winning. I would have taken those odds rather than bus a teammate, especially as no one would have been suspicious of **JB **for voting for me after his many posts expressing a belief that I was Scum.

So I am 98% certain JB is Town.

What about the others? If there were two Scum to start it doesn’t matter much. I’d obviously rather see septimus lynched this round than me, but I don’t think he will be allowed to last until the end without being lynched. I am Town but I will be one of the winners even if dead as long as we don’t allow the remaining Scum to last until the final round. And even if we screw that up it is a fifty percent shot of victory. I like the odds if there were two Scum —and I relish both winning and saying “I told you so.” Oh boy,** PCM**, do I relish it!

But if there are three Scum then a mislynch this round pretty much ends the Game. Scum can either win with a mislynch the next round or create a tie and either win with a coin flip at that time, or go to yet another round with the same 50/50 shot again. A mislynch today in a three-Scum game gives us at best a 25% chance to win.

I think there is a good chance that one of Kimble, PMC, or Fair Rarity is Scum along with septimus. PMC and Fair Rarity are both already voting for me. If I had to guess one though, I’d probably guess Kimble. This is a stupid thing to say as I am pretty much dependent on **Kimble **saving me this round. But I am going to say what I believe until the end. Though I must add now that PMC’s lynch/night kill “gotcha” post moments ago moves him into my lead for the role. Good grief indeed.

I believe** septimus** is Scum. I believe he used my dumb frustration vote on him as an excuse to go from being hesitant about Johnny Bravo’s case against me to going whole hog wild to get me lynched. You remember, big bolded letters and exclamation marks. Vote Biotop! And who was the lynch leader at the time when he suddenly goes all out trying to turn the lynch my way? snfaulkner was.

To all those voting for me: What’s your answer to my argument in Post #271? Can you please explain the actions of Scum snfaulkner as you see them at the end of the last round. Because I can’t for the life of me make a sensible case for his play if he and I are both Scum. PMC, can you and others at least do me the courtesy of looking at that before you simply follow the wagon and lynch me and thus imperil Town’s chances to win the game. Thank you.

PMC=PCM, obviously. It is too late at night to be doing this.

Incorrect. snfaulkner was never lynch leader until the very end. septimus was in the lead when he started gunning for you.

So in other words, we basically had to play a perfect game.

I like those odds.

vote Biotop

Yes, I was wrong about that. However, the point still stands. **septimis ** overreacts to my vote and becomes even more vocal then you were in lynching me.

[inappropriate politics]This must be how Hillary Clinton feels when the GOP keep attacking her --and then people claim she is dishonest because of the endless baseless attacks which must have some basis cause they keep hearing about them.[/ip]

  1. It sure looks like Town doesn’t have any power roles.

  2. 30% scum with no power roles would be unbalanced in scum’s favor. Therefore, I’m almost positive there are only 2 assassins. (I’ll refer to this as O2A.)

  3. Given O2A, I can’t imagine them voting in lockstep two Days in a row, as septimus, snfaulkner, and **PCM **did. Therefore, septimus and PCM are likely town.

  4. Also given O2A, I can’t imagine scum voting for the other scum for no reason at the start of a Day and leaving that vote there while the other scum gets lynched. So Fair Rarity is likely town.

  5. Furthermore, given O2A, I can’t imagine scum decisively bussing the other scum at the deadline. So Johnny Bravo is likely town.

Vote Biotop

I think JB answered Bio’s question in 271 satisfactorily – snfaulkner said he would probably miss the fuzzy deadline in his last post of the Day (239) because he had to get ready for work, commute there, and (presumably) work. (Coincidentally, that’s what I’ll be doing now.)

5 - Biotop (Fair Rarity[268], septimus[269], Precambrianmollusc[289], Johnny Bravo[296], Kimble[298])
1 - septimus (Biotop[271])

I told you so.