Hello, all. Dammit!
I’m somewhat terrified to go back and read this thread now. But I had a great time, so thanks pedescribe.
Well, I’ve gone and read it now.
I’m glad at least the spectators realised I was trying to be as super-protown as possible.
sachertorte, after I voted for Elendil to break the tie and saw his late vote I had the same thought.
I’m also thinking Oredigger is scum, and still find Justin Credible super-scummy. He’s playing like a more polite version of Elendil I think. Does no one in this thread agree with me? Maybe I’m crazy. Jimmy Chitwood, alternatively, could be the other lurking scum. I dunno.
I’m really sorry Freudian. I totally thought you were scummy for defending me so much, but reading back over it I have to really thank you, since you seemed to get what I was doing when everyone else (except a wolfish Telcontar, perhaps) was being crazy.
Hey Daphne. I came in to post something about how Elendil Heir’s late vote for Telcontar might mean that Tel’s a townie… or not. But I see I’ve been totally beaten to it. I wonder if the town’s finally going to lynch him toDay. There’s been enough confusion about his motives and alignment that he may make it to the end of the game.
No problem, Daphne. I’m sorry to see you went, but I’m glad you weren’t a wolf because otherwise I’d have felt like my wolfdar was really off. Also, I think you made a lot of good pro-town progress while you were there.
I’ve never heard of a Mafia game before, and I stumbled across this thread last night for the first time. Wow. Really fun! I read the whole thing more or less from beginning to end. Here’s my 2 cents, for what it’s worth:
First off, I spotted EH literally from the beginning. In his first or second post he wrote something along the lines of *“Hmmmm…damned if you do, damned if you don’t…” *It struck me as coming for the wrong “emotional position” of a beginner playing a townsperson, quite simply. He obviously had something to hide, whereas, had he been a townsperson, he would probably have been thinking more aggressively in terms of having something to uncover… I couldn’t believe it took the townspeople so long to test him.
Secondly, I strongly suspect that fluiddruid is the werewolf ringleader, for a few reasons:
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Her general analysis of the game dynamics really very compelling. She’s articulate, very experienced, very logical. If I were a wolf, she would have been my first victim, hands down. In my reading of the thread, she really stands out; she has far too good a grasp of this game to be left alive. As a townsperson she would be a very dangerous opponent.
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Despite being very good, she never even mentioned EH. She’s run cover for him basically the entire game, implicating others and keeping everyone distracted. Note that she didn’t even vote for his lynching. Her input and “sleight of hand” was instrumental in keeping EH alive for as long as he was.
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She was one of the first, if not the first, person to select Freudian Slit as the victim of day one. Despite** FS’s** very believable protestations that she was a townsperson. Despite having a very good grasp of the game, her accusations against FS were really flimsy. Despite the fact that EH was a much more logical choice for a day one lynching… I thought she was instrumental in getting FS lynched, that her arguments swayed a lot of other players in that direction and away from the more obvious choice…
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She jumped on SoT&B’s mistake without the slightest hesitation, and held fast to her convictions through the entire show. If I were a wolf, and I knew for certain that SoT&T wasn’t, I would have played it exactly the same way. In fact, wolves had absolutely nothing to lose in promoting his death, so I think anyone who took a step back and began to rethink the question ought to be fairly immune to accusations of untoward hairiness.
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Finally, and somewhat ironically considering the name of her first victim, fluid has in fact made a rather damning Freudian slip:
Daphne caught her out on it, and she had to correct it.
In other words, I think fluid has done a brilliant job of hiding in plain sight, taking immediate advantage of any tactical blunders made by the townspeople, providing very solid game analysis while missing obvious tells, etc… Really brilliant, in fact, because at this point, she’s still hardly even a suspect in town.
I buy into the suspicions surrounding Zerial, and at this point, voting pattern would determine my short list of wolf suspects.
Finally, I want to play, next time.
ETA: correction: fluiddruid selected FS on day two, after the execution of november. My bad. Just replace “day one” with “day two” in my post above.
Otherwise my point stands.
You know, Mr. Svinlesha, you might be right about fluid.
I had the thought that she could be an excellent scum when she accused me of voting for Justin ‘with no explanation’ and didn’t respond to my follow-up on that, and also her weird argument with me about ‘not voting for a likely vote leader’ (coupled with her Oredigger vote in day four looks very odd).
Now you think fluiddruid might be scum?
I was saying that on Day 1!
If fluiddruid is in fact scum, she’s got pretty much the rest of the town snowed completely. I don’t think anyone has her on their List O Suspicious People.
Although there are a couple people saying they’re going to see who Elendil’s Heir interacted with so maybe that’ll turn something up. Dunno, though…that’ll probably be just an analysis of HIS posts.
I’m relatively sure fluiddruid is a werewolf.
On the other hand, I’m reconsidering Zerial; if he’s a werewolf, then claiming to be a rancher with a special power would seem to me a very dangerous move. How could he guarantee that the real ranch identifier wouldn’t pipe up and provide compelling evidence that Z was lying? Rather, I now suspect the wolves have left him alone because they don’t see his special power as a threat to them, and are perhaps hoping the townspeople will eventually kill him off just because he seems so suspicious.
I don’t think Telecontar is a wolf, either. I think a wolf would “seem fairer but feel fouler”, to put it simply. A wolf might have, for example, made a proposal similar to Telecontar’s suggestion regarding waiting a day to lynch; but I don’t think he/she would have stuck with it so tenaciously after it was dismissed, to the point of calling suspicion to himself/herself. A smart wolf would have backed down quickly and tried to fade back into the woodwork.
If this supposition is correct, perhaps the townspeople should look more closely at the posters who’ve been “framing” Tele for such a long time.
Finally, I think we can also strike Oredigger from the list of suspects, since it makes no sense for him to begin arguing that the townspeople shouldn’t kill Seeker. He’d have to be an evil supergenius otherwise.
Well, what about the argument that Oredigger jumped on the bandwagon at first for Seeker and for me, but then afterward, said things like, “Let’s not be so hasty” or “I think we should lynch FS but I won’t be surprised if she’s town.” Kind of covering his ass either way, isn’t it? So it makes him look like he’s trying to go along with the rest of the Town but at the same time making him look good when these ppl turn out to NOT be wolves.
That’s a pretty good point. I’m jut feeling shitty because none of the people I suspected of being wolves seem to be.
That always seems to happen, though - stuff that sure does look suspicious just turns out to be someone making a mistake, or actually having very good reasons to do whatever it was.
That’s the nature of the game - at least for me it is.
That’s not uncommon. One gets much better at finding scum after they have been scum themselves. From the outside you have to rely on “making up” motivations and strategies for a situation you’ve never experienced. And typically, Town vastly underestimates the sophistication of scum and focus on things that “appear scummy.”
When you are scum yourself, you will become more attuned to how scum view the game and start to recognize that some of these “scummy” things are really not things that scum would do since they don’t advance the scum agenda. Scum hide in the shadows, so if you look for scum-tells, then all you will find are Townies playing the game. One needs to look at the absence of action to find scum sometimes.
Freudian Slit:
Our theories about who is or is not a werewolf are by their very nature extremely “underdetermined” in relation to the evidence we have to support them. A plausible case can be made for the guilt or innocence of any of the players.
Having said that, I suspect in the first case regarding you, FS, Ore was probably swayed by the argument that at such an early stage, it didn’t matter too much who was killed, since it was sure to provide some sort of valuable information. The decision to kill you was made far too nonchalantly, in my opinion. Don’t forget as well who came out most strongly in favor of lynching you, if memory serves, namely fluiddruid.
Regarding your second example, Seeker – well it certainly seemed reasonable to vote for lynching him at first.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but Oredigger77 was the first townsperson to argue that Seeker should be spared. Now, if Ore is a wolf, he would have to know that Seeker was not. If you’re a wolf, it would be a rather dangerous gambit to argue in favor of sparing a player who has 1) made themselves highly suspicious and 2) you know for a fact is not a wolf. What if your argument gained traction? The townspeople might target someone else, possibly one of your wolf-companions. See what I mean? All other things being equal, the tactically smart wolf move is to mobilize the already high level of suspicion against Seeker and get another townsperson killed, furthering the furry side’s growing advantage.
That’s what I meant about Ore having to be a supergenius, or a possibly a sicilian, to have decided to argue in favor of sparing a townsperson – if he really was a wolf himself, I mean.
I think Mahaloth is scum.
On a few separate occasions I’ve read his post and thought, hmmm could be scum. His most recent one ringing the “smug” bell.
I think that’s true. And yeah, there’s so many meta layers to this game. Like, if “X was a wolf, they’d do this, but they want to look townish, but…” etc. Oredigger did argue a little too hard against Seeker for him to seem like a wolf. But then maybe he’s just that good? I don’t know. Too confusing!
I’ve been thinking a bit more about Zeriel. I’m not sure I understand his rationale for revealing his special power, and there are a few confusing unresolved issues surrounding his status, but I think he’s living on borrowed time now. I’m assuming game symmetry: let’s say four wolves with false faction alliances. That would translate into two farmer wolves and two rancher wolves.
6 farmers have died, of which one was a wolf; 2 ranchers have died. There are three farmers left, 1 of which is a wolf (probably). There are 7 ranchers left, of which 2 are wolves (probably). Lose one more farmer, and Z suddenly has a 50-50 chance of guessing which of the other two is a wolf; better than that, probably, since one of the farmers will certainly appear more suspicious than the other, when investigated. No wonder he’s being so cagey!
I’m guessing the remaining farmer wolf is sweatin’ bullets about now (if my assumptions hold). He’ll be lobbying the other wolves to get rid of Z asap.
I just discovered another small slip-up that could be read – with a certain amount of paranoia – as circumstantial evidence to support my case against fluiddruid.. sachertorte suspects Mahaloth. In post #778, M wrote:
When it was pointed out that this sentence didn’t quite make sense, M responded rather lamely:
IF Mahaloth is a wolf, then maybe he accidentally revealed the gender of one of the wolves with his misplaced pronoun. But I concede that’s a mighty big “IF,” there.
For various reasons I’m beginning to suspect Justin Credible as well.
That’s a good point, about Mahaloth’s slip up. Then again, he could just have thought Seeker was female and meant that it was her idea, as a wolf, to kill Ichini. Could be something, ould be nothing.
That’s also a really good point about Zeriel figuring out who the remaining wolf farmer is.
Ah, did anyone else notice that Speaker’s been banned?