Enderw24
Johnny Bravo
Mahaloth
Mosier
Septimus
Švejk
Zeriel
**Question: what exactly is meant by “posting: Night time strategy in this thread is not permitted; Day time strategy is not permitted outside of this thread; dead players may not post strategy”. I take it to mean that during the night (which is about to start) there’s no game play so any posts remotely meant to further the game and the hunt for scum are out - is that right?
BTW - I assume that post editing is not allowed - correct?
**
BTW #2 I was unable to access the SDMB for a few hours just now - anybody else experience problems?
This is going to get me killed tonight, but with the win condition being what it is, I think it’s probably worth it. Here are some PMs:
[QUOTE=fubbleskag]
[QUOTE=Johnny Bravo]
[QUOTE=fubbleskag] role name: town cop special abilities: once per night you may visit any living player; you will learn that player’s alignment win condition: all mafia are dead
[/QUOTE]
Night 1: investigate septimus
[/QUOTE]
your investigation has determined that septimus is a mafia goon.
[/QUOTE]
And here is my vote:
Vote Septimus
Even if you guys lynch me today and give the scum an extra kill, you can still lynch septimus tomorrow and have several days to find whoever his partner is.
Enderw24
Johnny Bravo
Mahaloth
Mosier
Septimus
Švejk Zeriel - Town Doctor
It sucks to lose our Doctor - I knew we were probably going to lose someone but why did it have to be our doctor?
Also: Septimus- 2 votes; Johnny Bravo - 1 vote
And we have Johnny’s claim re: Septimus. And we have Mahaloth’s remarkable **Septimus **vote during the night, and subsequent Johnny Bravo vote during the day. Obviously Johnny’s claim will probably have to be tested one way or the other, but tbh I’m kind of :dubious: re **Mahaloth **and his/her (sorry don’t remember) votes (plural!). The night vote seems quite … eager …, and I can’t say I’m really following the logic for voting for Johnny Bravo. I don’t quite know what to make of it all, but thankfully the day is still young so I’ll have some time to sleep on it (I’m in Europe and it’s getting close to midnight right about now, in case you’re wondering :)).
So no protection and it’s 4-2. That means we guess wrong today and it’s 3-2, down to 2-2 by the morning. With tie equal to no lynch, it’s impossible to lynch scum tomorrow. Bottom line, we’re in the unenviable position of lyol on day friggin 1. Hey, that’s the fun of an experimental game. You gotta experiment and they’re not always gonna work. But hey, it’s fast so let’s make it fun.
All what I wrote above is a long way of saying that it would be a perfect situation to false claim cop and get us to lynch “scum” leading to a losing situation with a bad lynch.
But I’m going to roll the dice and say Johnny’s on the up and up.
Of course one of the scum is going to claim cop - they have absolutely nothing to lose by doing so. Especially now that you’ve told them that you’re going to vote for one of them (septimus) unless they falsely claim cop.
It really comes down to a coin flip since we don’t have the doctor. If we don’t kill a scum tonight, we lose immediately.
This is why I claimed right away, by the way. If I were scum, it would have made more sense for me to wait and see what people thought of Mahaloth’s vote on me. I got really lucky with my investigate, and the *only *way for us to win is by hitting the scum tonight.
Understand that even if we vote for Septimus today, and we’re correct, we’re going to lose another Town toNight (which would be Johnny almost certainly). That takes us from 4-2 to 4-1 to 3-1. A mislynch of Day 2 brings us to 2-1 and then 1-1.
Hmm…what the heck happens then? Day 3 at 1-1 means no lynch by default and a Night kill.
Lovely. So in other words, to win, we HAVE to lynch correctly twice. So we can’t stop playing toDay even if we’re assured who’s going to swing.
Actually I don’t think another scum will claim cop, unless septimus himself does it. If the other scum claims cop, he’s running too great a risk that we’ll believe you and then have both scum dead to rights.
So here’s an observation…how in the hell can this actually be a 50/50 game setup when town can’t mislynch even once, or they lose?
Well, the setup certainly isn’t 50/50 and I didn’t come into it thinking it would be. The situation as it stands right now overwhelmingly favors scum. I’d put them at something like 80+% to lose, if we agreed with Johnny’s claim. If we don’t, the odds are even higher for Scum.
The setup as it stood gave scum a 40% chance of hitting a power role N1. Of the two power roles, the doctor plays the greatest havoc as it immediately starts the clock ticking on the LyoL situation, since we’ve run out of stalling techniques.
OTOH, it gave the cop a 33% chance of finding scum and a 14% chance of the doctor correctly protecting. So it could have been that scum hits vanilla N1 and the cop finds scum. Now we’re actually not in a terrible position because the doctor’s still around which means the cop can be protected.
But while that scenario heavily favors Town, I’ll go back to my original assertion that, no, the game was never set up as 50/50. But as it stands right now? Boy howdy…