In fact, they’re preparing the Guantanamo Bay Naval Base to house refugees. Story here.
WTF? Why would Castro’s passing make large numbers of Cubans want to leave? Is Raul any bit scarier than Fidel?
There’s and old saying; “The devil you know is bettter than the devil you don’t”. Still Castro dying seems more likely to spark and exodus of Cuban-Americans back to Cuba.
Is there reason to believe a widespread civil insurrection is going to break out? A war that would cause large numbers of Cubans to want to flee to safety? One perhaps instigated by the brand of ideologues that came up with the Bay of Pigs, or the Iraq War, for instance?
Oh, give it a rest. Not everything is Bush’s fault.
More likely, people who have been oppressed for decades are seeing a potential window of opportunity if the government goes into disarray during a transition of power, and are going to use the opportunity to bail before a new thug consolidates power and bars the door again.
Also, the current agreement between the U.S. and the Castro government means that the U.S. will currently turn back refugees who try to escape to Guantanamo or to the U.S. by water. If the Coast Guard intercepts them before they put feet on the U.S. mainland, they are returned to Cuba. If the Castro regime falls, I imagine that arrangement is null and void, and a lot of people are probably waiting for that opportunity.
There are a lot of ‘internal exiles’ in Cuba. Dissidents, people accused of being enemies of hte regime. People who fall out of favor with the Cuban government wind up living in a sort of underground poverty because they can’t get decent jobs or government work permits. They are arrested, harassed, thrown in stinking jails and released, and in general life is made very difficult for them.
All you have to do is look at the large numbers of people who risk death trying to cross the ocean in rickety home-made boats to get out of the country, and you know that if a legitimate path to freedom opens, there will be somewhat of an exodus.
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Why? Treaties can survive revolutions.
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Fidel’s death won’t automatically mean regime change.
What Sam Stone said. It’s really hard, under the current regime, to leave Cuba. When Castro dies, there’s a good possibility that it’ll be easier to leave. Look, by comparison, at the flood of East Germans who went into West Germany when the Berlin Wall and the border controls came down.
Both are good points, but if was someone waiting for decades to get out of the country, I’d certainly be preparing for the potential opportunity.
I would hope they would plan for the return of Guantanamo Bay to Cuba.
That situation has gone on far too long. We really don’t need one more base in the Caribbean where it antagonizes the landlord. There’s plenty of friendly islands out there, including a few of our own.
I thought the State Dept left Cuba decades ago.
I agree with Sam. A lot of Cubans are already predisposed to want to leave the country for political or economic reasons. Castro’s death will create political confusion that will give them an opportunity to act.