Here it is, your weekly Survivor thread. Not much question who’s on the chopping block for each tribe tonight. If Chewing Gum loses, Jan the 62-year-old kindergartner goes. If Soup Guy loses, Knobb takes the walk of shame. The only question is who gets the Mark Burnett pre-boot diversionary editing. I’m guessing Shii Ann gets that treatment for Soup Guy, and Clay gets it for Chewing Gum.
My prediction? Previews seem to indicate that Knobb has finally figured out that 1<5. Chewing Gum wins immunity, Knobb takes up residence in Loser’s Lodge, and the tribe merges next week tied at 5-5.
Transpose the names of Shii Ann and Robb and you just might have something there. Our favorite Asian Islander will be going home tonight. Why her and not Robb? I am fully convinced that while he is a knucklehead of the highest order, his enthusiasm keeps the team going while Shii is a downer. Also, if I were voting, I would want to keep Robb. Once tribes merge, he is someone who will be an obvious boot that won’t continue winning immunities due to his failings at the mental aspect of things.
I’m going to go with Shii Ann as my first pick, for the reasons Mullinator so eloquently outlined above. The Suckys have repeatedly sat Shii Ann out for various challenges, reinforcing that she’s not a valued member of the tribe. I also want Robb around for his special brand of assholish behavior; if he goes, I will have to focus my rancor on someone else and I just don’t have the energy to do that right now.
Jan and her pigtails are my second pick, but considering how CG has performed in challenges she might be out.
I’ll predict that Robb will go if his tribe loses. The others may not like Shii Ann all that well (and that’s only based on what the editors have shown us) but she’s in their alliance. If they go in 5-5 with Robb, they have to worry that he’ll either be clever or stupid and switch to the other side (“Wait a minute, you mean the one you vote for goes? I thought it was the other way around all this time.”) In addition, with the merger and individual challenges coming up, Robb will now look like more of a threat than Shii Ann.
Assuming this is true, next week we should see an interesting contest between the two five member former tribes. The strategy will be to determine who the other team’s most vulnerable member is. Jan’s inexplicable loyalty will probably keep her from jumping ship. But the Soup Guys might mistakenly believe that she, rather than Clay, has been catching the second place votes. If so, Shii Ann’s turn might be next week.
It could go either way. I’m very much pulling for Shii Ann, but Mullinator makes some excellent points.
I think it all depends on how much politicking has been going on that we haven’t been shown. So far all the Soup Guys except Knobb have voted the same way, but one wonders how much of an actual alliance they are. Or is it simply a loose sort of thing where they’ve basically agreed each week but not made any commitments to each other.
Jake, at least, likes Shii Ann, and it seems Ken does too, them being fellow New Yorkers. Hard to say about Penny, but I’m guessing she’d follow the men’s lead. Erin apparently doesn’t like her, but Erin’s strategy seems to be to be quiet and do what everyone else does, and not make waves.
Knobb, of course, can’t stand her, but his opinion is worthless. He’s at the mercy of the other five.
So, like I said, it depends on whether the J/E/P/S/K alliance (how’s that for an anagram? I arranged the initials so it’s almost pronounceable!) is spoken or unspoken.
If Chewing Gum loses, I agree, Jan is the obvious choice.
If they do, and the tribes go into the merge 5-5, things could get interesting. Despite the fact that I’m hoping (for Shii Ann’s sake) that the Soup Guys have a firm alliance, it really doesn’t seem that anybody on either side is all that tight. We might see some inter-tribal shifting for the first time in the series.
One thing that may determine Knobbs fate is how big a deal his confrontation with Ken is. If the previews aren’t just the usual Survivor hype, and Ken & Robb do get into a big fight, that may tip the boot away from Shii Ann. Ken showed during the Meal Auction challenge that he’s an influential member of his team. If he decides Knobb needs to go, I think he can get others to back him up.
Robb will go as he is much more of a threat in the immunity challenges and wouldn’t hestitate to form an alliance with the other side if he thought it would help him. He already formed the misfit alliance (now down to one).
Shii Ann is not a threat yet. She is a bit grating, and bad at challenges which involve effort.
Jan is gone tonight if the immunity challenge is physical in any way. Only by spiking the challenges for 3 weeks has Burnett kept it close.
My prediction is Robb shoots himself in the foot, but the tribe tries to win anyway as it needs to have the advantage at the merge.
What is the over/under on dumb things said by Jan tonight?
The key phrase in there is “if he thought”. Come on, how likely is that?
Further, I disagree that he “formed” the misfit alliance. He only joined it. It was formed, if you can even call it that, simply by Jed and Stephanie hanging out together. Robb just kind of slid in with them, because he figured they were cooler or something, and they would listen to his bitching about Shii Ann.
I do agree that he’s a threat in purely physical challenges, though.
I don’t think Robb has figured out that there is a sort of mini-alliance against him yet.
He seems genuinely surprised each time the vote doesn’t go his way. He is such a moron.
I agree with Ferrous. I think Jake and Ken truly like Shii-Ann, and Penny does, too.
Erin, though she might not exactly like Shii-Ann, probably likes her better than she likes Robb.
Robb would get voted off right away after the merge anyway.
My picks:
Jan or Robb, depending on which team wins the IC.
Have they ever gone into the merge with uneven teams? Or has it always worked out to be 5 and 5?
Yeah - thanks to ABT, at least we know who WON’T get voted out.
Their ep summary is moderately amusing, tho.
Shouldn’t there already have been the disgusting food challenge? Isn’t there gonna be one? Sure doesn’t seem like Survivor w/o it.
From memory: I missed s1 until the last couple episodes, but I believe S2 (Australia) was a 5-5 merge. S3 (Africa) was a nominal 5-5 merge, but the Ethan-Kim J.-Lex-Tom tribe was actually up 6-4 die to the first switch. S4 (Marquesas) wasn’t even close to even–only Vecepia, Sean, and Boston Rob remained of their original tribe.
It looks like they may be messing around with the merge next week, according to the previews. My guess is that they’re somehow giving them the choice to merge or continue to compete as separate tribes. This could be a nice twist.
I like Brian’s game, but I think his editing today was a set-up for later disappointment. He may be this year’s John. I certainly hope not, however.
And as much as I hate to say it, voting out Knobb may have been the wrong move tonight. Soup Guy at least could have been certain that Knobb would remain loyal. Shii Ann is now the outcast and she may have incentive to jump. She’ll need one other person to make such a move work for her, however, and I don’t see anyone else (i.e., Jake) doing that.
I guess I’ll be the first to comment…six hours later.
Jan is a fucking psycho! A bat embryo burial, complete with a cross? And then she cried? Um, okay.
I am so sick of contestants who find a “bigger meaning” from these games. “I’m a winner even if I’m voted off.” Whatever, dude.
The challenges are getting lamer by the second. Watching people walk to flags and moving them isn’t exactly captivating television. All of these mental challenges are lame attempts to make things “fair” for the physically weaker Chuay Gahn. It’s making the show boring. The Reward challenge was good; why couldn’t that have been the IC?
I think that Ken, Penny, Jake, Erin, and Brian are the only people I can stand anymore.
