[QUOTE=John Mace]
Good episode, considering the low probability for surprises. I think Yul made a wise move in choosing Parvati (even though I said last week he should go after Adam). She’s actually better, all around, at the challenges than Adam is-- witness her performance last night. Also, it breaks up a potential chick-alliance sometime down the road.
But Adam is suddenly in a pretty powerful position. His move should be to approach Ozzy and Sundra to convince them to vote off Becky. Yul is untouchable in the next IC, but they can weaken him considerably in the IC after that by getting rid of his strongest ally. Then, going into the FF, if Yul doesn’t win IC he gets booted. Ozzy and Sundra must know that Yul is tighter with Becky than with either of them, so this is their best shot to get the F3, without Yul.
So, Does Yul anticipate this and secretly give Becky the HII before tribal council next week (assuming she doesn’t win the IC)? I think he needs to consider that option **very **seriously.
It’s interesting how the producers haven’t shown any discussion among the remaining Survivors about the jury situation and the fact that something different has to happen. There’s no way they haven’t figured that out and talked about it. I guess they want to save the “surprise” for the finale.
Can’t wait 'til Sunday-- this is going to be good!
[/QUOTE]
Except again, I can’t see a single way that Yul fails to make the final three no matter what you do. The existence of the HII means that someone in your proposed Anti-Yul alliance has to be willing to get voted out just to get rid of Yul’s idol (to take one for the team, as I said before).
So say Adam, Sundra, and Ozzy team up and vote out Becky next, leaving Yul, Adam, Sundra, and Ozzy as F4. Yul’s idol is good up to and including F4, so he’s into the F3. Adam, Sundra, and Ozzy could theoretically get rid of idol at the next TC, if one of them was sacrificed, and depending on the rules. All three could vote for Yul, and then whoever Yul and Becky target goes home but at least the HII is out of the picture. But why would Sundra or Ozzy put themselves at risk when the safest play is vote with Yul and Becky for Adam?
They won’t, so Yul is in to the F4 with idol and partner intact, and thus into F3.
Given that Yul is certain to make F3, everyone else should just be ignoring him and jockeying to be one of the other two. Count him as a given, because you’re not getting rid of him, and find a way to outlast the other three remaining.
Actually, looking back, I wonder if Jonathan’s best play back after Yul told him about the HII wouldn’t have been to vote with Raro anyway (but let Yul and the other Aitus think he was voting for Nate). He could have simply walked up to the voting booth and voted the opposite way, but otherwise done everything exactly the same as he did. Nate still would have gone home, yes. But Yul’s HII would have been burned away in the process. Jonathan wouldn’t have alienated Candice, Parvati, and Adam, and would have been proven right - and might have been able to join with the three of them, draw in Ozzy, and vote out Yul at the subsequent TC as the biggest threat to win.
Hm.