Survivor 45

I wanted that sandwich, and I was just sitting on my couch.

mmm

Splitting them into teams, 2 beaches, 2 TCs was a pretty insidious way of fracturing alliances. Kudos.

But, of course, it didn’t work. As far as I can tell both votes went purely on original tribal lines, with the minority going along with the choice to avoid being targeted. They tried to play up some possible drama, but I didn’t really buy it this week at all.

What’s interesting is there wasn’t really a minority. If Emily sticks with Reba and Kaleb sticks with Belo, both groups were split 3/3.

I guess - but getting somebody to move from an easy vote that isn’t them to a forced tie is a very difficult task. I’m kinda shocked that Jake went for it rather than just go along to get along.

In each of the “mini tribes” there was 3 of one of the original Belo/Reba with a floater from Lulu (Emily in one, Kaleb in the other). And in each case the 3-person block got rid of their desired target.

Drew and Emily had no reason to scramble to save Sifu and perhaps get voted out. Same with Katurah and Jake trying to save Kaleb (although for some reason Jake tried…).

In retrospect it’s pretty silly to think that the “force a tie and convince Austin to flip” plan was going to be compelling to Katurah. Particularly when your “plan” to convince her you are trustworthy is to tell her you have been lying to her for days. She has to realize she is better off jumping in with the girls (for example) to target the big dudes than try to continue to play with Bruce and Jake.

In these small groups the overriding priority has to be “anybody but me”. You can try to get fancy and make big moves when you have more voters and more targets.

He also had a pretty astute understanding that the advantage they got instead of the sandwich isn’t that great and just puts a target in his back. The other two seemed to think that the shared idol made them allies, but he understood it made them instant enemies.

Right. It was a really sucky advantage.

Which is one of the nice things they have introduced - making some of the “advantages” truly bad, or at least risky to use. Adds a little bit of drama to the searching, and every so often you see someone actually pass on the advantage or give it someone else.

Austin really needs to try to figure out how to get Kellie out now. The thing is he might not have the numbers anymore now that Sifu and Kaleb are gone. Maybe he can pull Jake in? Or get Katurah to take a swing at Bruce first (and maybe even use that drama to target Kellie?).

He really should worry that if the game shifts to “take out the big male threats” his name has to be near the top. Fortunately (for him) he and Drew have a pretty good stash of tools to use if needed to get the advantage - they just need good intel to use them properly.

Yeah, but the challenges change- note two women won the ist personal immunity challenge.

I think he’s taking the better strategy of backing off. Getting Kellie out let’s everyone know he now has an idol and makes him a target. The right move is to wait until just before the idols expire, then he can use them in back to back tribals

Didn’t see any comments for last week’s episode, but it went just about perfectly for Reba. Austin (and Drew) clearly understood that the priority is to make the “shared power” idol a full immunity idol. And they followed my “use the Belo drama to blindside Kellie” plan (although I thought the target would be Bruce, not Jake).

Reba did a really good job of both making Kellie feel safe (so she didn’t scramble or do anything) and make Jake feel threatened (so he used his SITD, and by extension made Kellie feel safe). In the past the majority would have felt compelled to pull Jake or Katurah in on the plan, which might have messed up it up This group knows better and just let them think it was one thing when it was really another.

Well played by Julie to recognize that it’s not the time to hold grudges and insist on it being Jake. He’s a dead man walking so why not let him live another day while you build up your power?

The 4 Rebas plus Emily are in a very strong position. What I can’t decide is if they are the Final 5 or if there is another twist to come. It actually kind of feels like everybody in that 5 might feel like they can win it, so they may not flip on each other.

But maybe the three women decide it’s better to try one more time to bring in Kendra and Katurah to increase their chances of actually winning the game? Maybe drag Jake along as well as a shield/vote? It would be a bold move, and they haven’t really shown the guts for it yet. And Emily so far seems to prefer working with Drew and Austin (even though she probably knows she can’t really beat them in the end… maybe she hopes to sneak Kendra or Katurah in there with her and one of the guys and then play up the underdog survivor story?)

What I dont get is when there is serious talk of an all girls alliance, and one of the dudes knows about it- why is his first reaction to vote out a fellow male?

I loved the shocked look on Kellies face, who thought she was running the show and totally safe-- when she realized she got blindsided in one of the best moves of the season. Of course she did it herself, taking that foolish advantage.

Those HUGE fish eyes!!!

The vote felt like the reveal of Rich’s alliance all the way back in Borneo. Everyone was all kumbaya completely unaware that there’s a group playing way harder than everyone else.

They couldn’t target Bruce. He won the Immunity Challenge

Sorry for the confusion. I was referring to my prediction from last week that Reba would use the Belo disorganization to make it seem like they were going for Bruce only to blindside Kellie (since it empowers Austin’s medallion).

Obviously that wasn’t possible once Bruce won immunity but they basically ran the same play but using Jake as the decoy.

I was a couple weeks behind and just got caught up. The past few episodes have been very fun and unpredictable. The blindside of Kellie was classic. I loved Jake’s reaction more than anything. “WHOA!!!…Sorry. Whoa.”

My only prediction for the remainder of the season is that Emily will get dragged to the end as a goat, and will be convinced she got there on her own merits.

Other than that, I have no freaking guess how this will go.

Dee and Drew were total jerks by eating all the rice, screwing Jake- and then laughing about it.

That seems possible, perhaps even likely.

But she did do a rather good job this week probing and determining exactly where she stands with the “power 4”. She seems smart enough tactically to realize she ain’t making it to the end with them. The question is how can she make a move when the other pieces are Jake (seems oblivious), Bruce (lacks self-awareness), and Katurah (hates Bruce).

I don’t see how she wins against any combination of the Dee/Julie/Austin/Drew alliance. Maybe against Julie and Drew? Or against Julie and Dee if they somehow alienate Austin and Drew so much that they refuse to vote for them? Seems unlikely since Emily would have to go along with that plan too.

Maybe she thinks she can win that all-female Final 3 by playing up her Lulu roots and working up from the bottom? That might work to get Kendra and Bruce. And Kellie seems plenty pissed at the Reba 4 to vote for anybody that isn’t them. I did just remember that Kaleb is on the jury - Emily certainly has a chance at his vote…

We are dropping our Paramount+ subscription, so I’m going to need you all to be REAL descriptive about events from here on out. :wink:

I’ve deleted my nine Survivor recordings, and cancelled upcoming episodes. It was great at the beginning, when there were hardships. Years ago, they made thing easier. And I’m tired of Fiji. It was more interesting when they were set in different places in the world each season. Sorry, they lost me.