Then again, he’s in such a strong position I think he feels like he just wants to stick with his plan. He wants Phillip and Natalie to be his final 3, since those are the two he has the best chance of beating when it comes down to the jury votes. Grant is the bigger threat ultimately.
Yeah, I agree that Grant was the right sacrificial lamb. You can’t trust the hero-edit that Grant has had so far. For all we know, we just haven’t been shown his conniving side. If Grant and Ashley are equal question marks as far as loyalty to Rob, Rob makes the smart move by siding with the immunity winner.
Consider this, if Rob makes a move against Natalie, he loses his spy and a loyal ally. He also tips Ashley off about his duplicity towards her by making a move to weaken her. Finally, Rob would risk being found out as an instigator (maybe due to a Phillip info leak) and having all the votes turn on him.
Instead, Rob moves challenge monster Grant from competing in immunity challenges against Rob to Redemption Island instead. This is a smart chess move. He also appears to be on Ashley’s side, making it easier to blindside her later.
The finale is Sunday, which means an impending RI resolution. Rob could still have a chance to use his idol to protect himself from the shakeout of that, which means either Ashley or the re-entrant RI player goes next. Depending on the outcome of the immunity challenge, Rob just needs to take out the other and then he gets to sit at final tribal council against Phillip and Natalie as planned.
Interesting choice for Rob between Natalie and Grant. I think he made the wrong move and would’ve been better sacrificing Natalie. I think kicking Grant would’ve been the choice for an easier final 3 (but more difficult path getting there); and kicking Natalie would’ve been the opposite.
Kicking Grant: if Grant ends up on the jury, he’s still probably likely to vote for Rob (though it’s hard to tell how pissed he is about getting voted off at this point). He’s also a strong challenge fiend and has a good chance of knocking out the others from Redemption Island. I think this opens Rob up to the risk that the girls are more likely to join together and vote out Rob.
Kicking Natalie: Guaranteed to lose a jury vote, though I think the Natalie/Ashley vote is a lost one anyways if one is on the jury and the other is in the final 3. Kicking Natalie would’ve weakened Ashley and required her to win immunity to survive another round (assuming the RI person returns to make a last 5, Rob still has control with Rob/Grant/Phillip). Moreover, he still has Grant around to help win immunity and make it less likely someone else will win and not take Rob to the final 3.
Rob’s still in pretty good shape regardless though if he can use his idol in the final 5 vote to get to 4. I’m wondering why no one seems to want to vote him out - did the other players all get together on day 1 and make a pact to not give Rob or Russell the million dollars? Rob’s just run the whole game so efficiently I can’t see him losing a final 3 vote if he’s against two other Ometepe members (but if the RI winner gets to the jury, they’re guaranteed a win).
I see chances of winning shaking out as such: RI winner > Rob > Grant > Natalie > Ashley > Phillip.
I don’t like Rob. I never liked Rob. I can’t believe these people are being so stupid as to let him rule the roost the way he has. I’ll say this as a long time *Survivor *fan: if they ever bring Rob back again, I’m out. I’m tired of Survivor, Retread Island.
The smartest move would have been to vote out Rob and Russell at the first opportunity and then proceed with the game. It really amazes me that Survivor seems to continue to find recruits that have apparently never seen the show.
Interestingly, both Rob and Russel were one of the strongest members of their tribe… although Rob’s tribe was not initially winning challenges, once the other tribe tanked the challenge to oust Russel, Rob led his team to an advantage in post-merge numbers.
You can say that:
- Had Russel’s tribe not ousted him so early, they would not have been helpless post-merge
- Had Rob’s tribe ousted him earlier, they may never have had a chance
Given I expected both Rob and Russel to be first ones voted out, I think it has been fascinating how this season has played out… get rid of RI and it is one for the ages.
Probst talks about this a lot on his web site. They have seen the show. Rob just go incredibly lucky and his team is naive and starry eyed.
I strongly disagree that Russel was a strong member of his tribe. He did nothing - remember his arms, and the fact that he had to lay on his back with his arms not making contact with his body because of those open sores? Yeah - the tribe later went on to lose a few more times after he left. But to say they lost because they didn’t have Russel is an enormous leap of logic, and a bastardization of causation.
Just watched this, and I’m still not sure if Rob made the right move.
The way I figure it, Rob has to win the final-4 challenge. I think there is basically zero chance that he gets in front of the jury otherwise. And he’s probably correct in thinking that if he makes it, he has a decent chance to win if he’s up against any combination of the girls + Philip.
On the other hand, he likely loses to the RI returnee, and is almost certainly gone if he doesn’t win that last challenge at this point. So it probably would have increased his jury chances to keep Grant, knowing that then he at least has two, and maybe three (if Natalie is truly that loyal), chances to win that final challenge. I think it’s possible Grant would have stuck with him. On the third hand, he probably loses to Grant at the vote.
So it’s probably better for him this way, if his ultimate goal is to win and not just make the final 3. It will all come down to that last challenge for him, cause if he loses he’s probably toast.
In the end I’m expecting Matt to win the last RI challenge, win the final 4 challenge, win the jury vote, and cement this as the worst and most pointless Survivor ever.
Yeah, a lot of people forget that Zapatera won the next challenge after getting rid of Russell. And it’s not like they were some unstoppable powerhouse pre-Russell. They had only won two challenges, by pretty close margins. I think Ometepe just got better by trimming the fat and working together better as a team.
And, of course, having someone that has competed at these sorts of challenges before three times…
I don’ think there’s any inherent advantage to doing most of these challenges, since there isn’t much that is repeated. The ones that are - like a balancing challenge - you can train at home. But mostly, it’s just raw talent.
However, Rob understands the stakes. He knows that every loss means you might go home - so every challenge is for $1m. I can’t remember seeing anyone put as much into challenges as he consistently does.
Remember that he has a hidden immunity idol, and between his intel (Phillip, Natalie) and his intuition, there’s a good chance he’ll know exactly when they try to mount a coup against him. Plus with Grant gone (for now) he has a very good chance of winning the immunity challenges. Rob came into this game against great odds and has played it as well as possibly could be expected, and he really hasn’t even come off as all that villainous. In fact, Grant doesn’t even know for sure if Rob voted him off, for all he knows Phillip did that on his own.