The final vote is about who deserves a million dollars, which isn’t necessarily who played the game the best and also is not necessarily who is the most socially likeable.
To crystalize this point, let’s plot each player on two axes, “Likeable” and “Gameplay”. Russell is clearly in the “Not likeable” category, but has a stratospheric score in the “Gameplay” department.
Natalie has a respectable score in the “Likeable” category, but I think people are grossly overstating her “Gameplay” rating. To me, Gameplay is establishing enough control so you are not voted out. There were many situations where Natalie had no control over being ousted other than the luck factor. In contrast, Russell faced elimination extremely often, but his ridiculously high “Gameplay” allowed him to find a way to sidestep all of these varied threats, whether he had to build relationships with spies and secret traitors, mastermind a manipulation, gain an advantage through finding the hidden immunity, or when push comes to shove, by winning individual immunity.
I think a better comparison is Russell vs. Mick. (Taking Natalie out of the equation for a moment) Mick was an even bigger under-the-radar coattail rider than Natalie who also lucked into his spot in the finals. So he has as low a “Gameplay” stat as could be possible. Regardless of his gameplay, Mick’s “Likeable” score is still higher than Russell even though he did little to bond with the jury.
The question is, who deserves the million dollars? If you say Mick, then your define of “deserve” is solely based on your judgement of “good” people. CEOs are greedy bastards who step on the little guy and game the system to get ahead. Unless they donate to charity, then they’re “good” again.
On the other hand, a lot of people would say “deserve” should be tied more to gameplay. Maybe it’s because of the show motto or maybe it’s belief in a free enterprise system that rewards self-reliance and competence, but some people don’t begrudge the people on top and don’t reserve votes only to people who didn’t outplay us.
Ultimately, each juror has a sliding scale that adjusts the weighting of “Likeable” and “Gameplay”. In seasons with a clear winner, that person usually has high scores in both categories. This season is interesting because Russell was not high enough in “Likeable” that it came down to the jury’s definition of “deserves a million” and now the hindsight self-justifications of why their choice was correct. It is clear that Russell thought he was the Magnificent Bastard. But was he really only a Smug Snake?
p.s. Thank you to the poster who pointed out that Yul won Cook Islands. For some reason, I thought he lost a vote to someone who didn’t like how he explained things. But thinking back, I think Yul did manage to wisely shut up when he needed to. This bumped his “Likeable” rating just enough to go with his “Gameplay” to win.