Survivor: Palau- 4/28

It always works that way.

The show’s over out here on the Left Coast, but I’m not sure about Hawaii so I’ll spoiler-box it:

So much for Janu’s sacrifice. I believe that if Steph haf been voted out last week, Janu would have been gone this week. A nice little monkey wrench she threw, but unfortunately someone else threw a bigger one. All that happened was the order was swapped.

More spoilers from tonight’s show

I think the key mistake was that Stephenie, Katie, and Jenn should have immediately gone to Caryn. From the editing (which admittedly has falsified the chronology in the past) it appears they made their agreement but then waited to talk to Caryn. During this wait, Tom went to Caryn and promised her … well essentially nothing. But from what I’ve seen, Caryn has been completely out of the game. She’s had no understanding of what’s been going on around her (she reminds me of Jan from Thailand). So she was relieved when Tom pulled her aside and she bonded on him like a duckling. Then when Katie tried to talk to her about another plan, Caryn went back to being dazed and confused. She was unable to figure out what to do so she ran back to Tom and asked him to tell her. Tom was able to see that Katie’s plan was much more advantageous to Caryn than his and he pretty much admitted off-camera that if their situations were reversed he’d have taken the offer. So he was confused by Caryn coming to him instead of doing the obvious thing and figured she must have some even more devious plan going.

One thing that struck me funny: When Caryn and Tom were bringing water, Big Strong Tom had some canteens over his left shoulder and a single canteen in his right hand. Scrawny Caryn also had canteens over her left shoulder, but was carrying a big pot of water in her right hand and you could tell it was heavy for her.

I wonder if she insisted she carry the pot (so as not to appear ‘weak’), or if Tom even offered?

Katie’s in trouble.

Interesting (and not so wise, IMO) she expressed her opinion of Tom to Caryn, who gave her a verbal lashing a few weeks back. And now it looks like Caryn – who is supposedly a lawyer, which I guess would make me the equivalent of a Supreme Court Justice – has unwittingly backed herself into an alliance with Tom and Ian, basically taking Katie’s spot. Unless, that is, Katie lies and lies and lies her ass off and convinces said allies that it is Caryn who’s lying.

But I think Katie’s toast next week. I might be in the minority, but I like her. Judging by her amnesia in regards to Caryn’s outburst, she apparently doesn’t hold much in the way of grudges and is pretty much a happy-go-lucky type out to win a million bucks. But her ambivalent nature in regards to the alliance that has pretty much carried her will result in some very due karma.

Caryn is an idiot. Tom gives her a BostonRob-esque, “I’ll do what I can to take care of you so you can be the sixth most important person in our alliance,” and she practically flips over on her back and spreads her legs. (My apologies to the women reading this thread if you’re offended by the graphic metaphor.)

But it’s going to work in her favor… for now.

Thank you! I was just thinking to myself, “How did this woman actually get through law school?”

Red Stater or Blue Stater, you must admit one undeniable truth. George W. Bush has made a positive impact on the country. Yes. That’s right. By screwing up the first night of sweeps week with only his 4th presidential press conference ever, he got me so afraid that I’d miss the antics of Tom, Ian, Steph and company that I watched the show live instead of on my DVR. Did you KNOW they had these things called “commercials”? I had no idea! Now, my family can see see what they want to buy BEFORE they go shopping. What an novel concept! My three year old was eyeing them Pringles, boy!

And so, the less anticipated, highly derivative RICH RANKINGS! (K or U for Tribe and Last Week’s Ranking in Parentheses).

FORGOT TO FILE A 1040- I guess you couldn’t outwit everyone!

Wanda,Jonathan,Jolanda, Ashlee,Jeff, Kim,Angie,(sniff) Willard, James, Ibrehem,Bobby Jon,Coby,Scope Mouthwash,Janu- I just want to take a shot at Janu one more time before retiring her completely. Terrible. Just terrible!

Stephanie (Does not rawk!)- (U/Rat)- Eh. I am so over you. Not only do you have a boyfriend you keep throwing in my face (watsonwil slips his wedding ring off and puts it in his pocket), but when I watched last night on HDTV, I could see all the imperfections in your face. I guess you weren’t as pretty as I thought. And that voice could give Mary Hart seizures! Yeah. I’ll keep telling myself these things until the pain stops. I haven’t hurt this much since Willard got the ax. (Not entirely true. When I went into my office yesterday, I sat on my balls. That hurt More than any of this). You did the best you could with the set of circumstances you were dealt. And at least you tried to stop the ax this time with some strategy. Aw, man. Why did I have to start thinking about Willard? POOR WILLARD!

EATING BEEF JERKY- You’re still playing, but you’re praying for a tribe scramble!

Ian-(K/Merge)- I think Ian is in the most danger because Tom is more likely to win the next challenge. That puts Ian in harm’s way, which is very sad. Don’t you just like this guy? His facial reactions during the Food Auction (which is always a fun Survivor challenge no matter how redundant) were classic. Hoping for a miracle because Ian may be my favorite Survivor of all time.

WHO SAID ANYTHING ABOUT A MERGE?- Middle of the pack players, the lotta ya!

Tom-(K/Merge)- Bad idea with the little speech about dominance? Or maybe it is better to get it out in the open? Either way, you better just keep winning now that Gregg has Steph out of the game. You are a marked man. And despite the fact that you seem to have some sort of Kavorka-like hold on Caryn, you haven’t seen through Gregg’s plan yet. You stay in “Merge” based on the fact that you have a chance to win out the challenges Colby-style. And I believe you, unlike Ian, will bring down the hatchet when neccessary.

HEY! LOOK AT HIS MOHAWK-You might make the merge, but you’re grimacing from the jury row!

Katie- (K/Big Tom)- She may have hurt herself this week. I admire her ability to put personal feelings aside for the sake of her game. But at some point the benefit of her as the perfect runner-up may be outweighed by the fear that she will shake things up. I am predicting she makes the Final Four but get’s ousted first.

LOOKING FOR A BIG TOM TO ENGLISH DICTIONARY- Big Tom has spent more combined days on the show than anyone. But he didn’t quite grab the brass ring.

Caryn- (K/Big Tom)- Last week, I said she was a good player. Maybe not. I think she just wants to latch on for the ride. But, I think she could beat Katie or Jenn in a final pairing. So she needs to keep that in mind. Maybe eventually she’ll come around and see that she needs to make a move. Either way, I don’t think she is the next exit because it doesn’t make sense for ANY alliance to boot her. And at this point in the game, “One More Week” is enough to keep you pretty high.

ARE YOU A RAT OR A SNAKE?- Reserved for a MAXIMUM of two players. You have to be in the driver’s seat for this spot.

Jennifer- (K/Big Tom)- I think Jenn should have been the one to approach Caryn about the Girlie Alliance if they were serious. Katie has a history with Caryn. Caryn may have just thought Katie was setting her up for an ouster. It leads me to believe Jenn is still locked in with Gregg. I’ll bet she heard about that free $1,000,000 wedding Rob and Amber were getting and is already mind-shopping for a Vera Wang!
Gregg- (K/Mohawk)- I think he’s playing the game well. He got Tom and Ian to take out someone who threw a wrench into his plans and yet they still believe he is tight with them. I think this will happen: he will vote out Tom and Ian as soon as possible by offering Katie protection. Then he will turn on his strength for the last run of challenges (I think he has been holding back at times to avoid the attention that Tom draws). Then, in the end, I think he will take his girl to the final two. Double victory. He gets to keep his relationship going AND she really can’t beat him.

Big changes in my prediction- Things are getting clearer, but Katie and Caryn’s loyalties are key. Is Gregg all talk or did he need to oust the X-Factor this week before burning Tom next? Can he get Caryn on board? Because I think Katie has shown a willingness to burn bridges if neccesary.

Final Four Prediction- Gregg, Katie, Jenn, Caryn
Winner- Gregg over Jenn

The Jury Tracker:
Coby- (Favors: Katie, Dislikes: Tom)
Janu- (Favors: Tom, Dislikes: Katie)
Steph- (Favors: Ian, Dislikes: Possibly Caryn)

I would happily wash Ian’s back no matter how bad he smelled.

That is all. :slight_smile:

from Little Nemo:

Thank you! I couldn’t figure out why Tom seemed so standoffish when she was talking to him, saying “So why are you bring this to me?” I thought it was because he didn’t care, and it turns out it was just a really stupid thing to do, like the guy who told Amazon Rob that he was going to get voted out.

Bascially Caryn went to Tom and said, “Hey, you know how you told me you’d take me into the final six and vote me out in three days? Well, Katie just told me she’d take me into the final four and I’d get a shot at winning the million dollars. Which plan do you think I should go with, yours or hers?” Tom had to look at her and think, “You are either the dumbest person I’ve ever met or so devious I can’t imagine what your plan is.”

And I don’t think Caryn’s that devious.

Speaking of Steph… Has there ever been a survivor who attended every single tribal council, as a player / jury member? The only one she missed is Willard’s vote off, but she went to TC that night too.

Nope, Steph is the losingest loser ever to lose in Survivor. Even though she totally kicked ass individually. My kids didn’t understand why the other women were afraid of Steph, and I had to point out that in the 1:1 fights within the team challenges, Steph kicked those women up one side and down the other, so they know they’re not beating her in a challenge of strength. Like that matters…

I disagree. I think Caryn signed her own death warrant by ratting out Katie. Katie is going to spend the next couple days working on Tom, Ian, etc… to oust Caryn. I think you’ll see a split vote, with Tom and Caryn voting for possibly Jen and Gregg, Jen, Katie and Ian voting for Caryn.
My guess is that Tom will manage to hang on for at least one more tribal council after that, making the final four, but being voted out to leave Ian, Katie and Gregg as the final three. Although it might be Jen instead of Gregg.
Just a guess mind…I am too lazy to look up the current spoilers right now, but given the tribe dynamics, this is what I am thinking.

Alas, poor Stephanie, I knew her well…

What I can say. Steph, you lost some standing in my mind by being a whiny bitch at the begining of the show. I’m not saying that did you in with the other players, but it just looks so bad on TV.

Isn’t Caryn supposed to be an attorney? You’d never know…

Actually, as the weakling, she’s in the best spot of all the players. Who wouldn’t want her in the final 4? She needs to milk that as best she can.

With Steph gone, it’s going to get REAL interesting next week. Everyone left thinks he/she has an alliance with each of the other players!

I thought it was funny that Tom told Caryn he’d take her to the final six, then, after she proved that she’s an idiot, he voted for her… granted, it was a throwaway vote because the rest of his alliance (i.e., everybody) voted for Steph, but still. Funny.

Stephenie voted for Caryn, Tom voted for Stephenie.

I think it’s interesting that all the men have picked their “sacrificial lambs.” Katie/Ian, Gregg/Jen, Tom/Caryn (?) - the woman they can possibly drag to the final two, that can’t beat them at an immunity challenge and would have no chance to win (nobody likes an under the radar coat tail follower).

I’m still suprised that Gregg’s name doesn’t come up. He’s strong, he has a sub alliance with Jen, he got caught cold busted strategizing with Colby - why didn’t Tom and Ian take him out last week or this week? Huge mistake and it will cost them the game.

Interesting that you knowingly used an image with a high potential for offense–so high that you felt the need to apologize in advance. And that’s not a criticism of you. That shows me that you felt that the metaphor was so very apt that you were willing to risk a backlash in order to use it.

And I absolutely agree with you. To quote myself from my comments on the March 16 episode:

Caryn’s secret crush on Tom explains why she told him about the all-girl plot. She was looking for some more face time with the Tominator. And by showing him that she was willing to put her “loyalty” to him above a clearly superior opportunity to advance in the game, she was trying to get further into his good graces.

Do I think she’s consciously trying to initiate a romantic relationship with him? No. Do I think that she’s experiencing a strong attraction to Tom, born out of being in close proximity to each other in an intense situation for weeks and weeks, while being separated from her SO//family/other normal social outlets. Most definitely.

I agree with this one–I’m a woman, and I’m not offended, because you’re absolutely right.

I also have to say, as a non-elected representative of the female Survivor demographic, that I am ashamed of my entire species whenever I see the women left in any given tribe toss around the idea of a Women’s Alliance and then completely fuck it up. You had the advantage of numbers, for the love of Og. Yes, I like Tom, I love Ian, but I wouldn’t have thought worse of the women had they decided to kick all the guys out immediately. No wonder men think we’re stupid. :mad:

Yeah, it’s been pointed out on TWOP that the big killer late in the game is an inability to count to, say, five. Last season there was the point where somebody with a strong alliance said to one of the others “Our three-person alliance is going to vote the other four of you off the island one at a time.”

It didn’t work out that way.

Not too well, it’s Stephenie

I’ll bet you lunch over it… and collect the next time I’m in Central Fla.

From my perspective, the great irony over the potential women’s alliance is that I was sure it would fail because:
a.) I couldn’t see any way Jenn would split from Gregg – but she appeared willing;
b.) I couldn’t see any way Katie would jump ship while in the safe hands of Tom & Ian – but she was so willing she basically jumped the gun.

But as Green Bean so aptly pointed out, it was Caryn who wouldn’t split with Tom… and they were never together in the first place!!!

Tom is going to believe Caryn about Katie’s mutiny (almost certainly, I think – didn’t Katie mention ousting Tom to Ian as well?), Ian will support Tom (because he’s Tom’s stepchild), Tom will tell Gregg and… either:

Gregg will go along and they’ll dump Katie. (And then Caryn will get tossed the following week.)

Or, just maybe…

Gregg will feign agreement with Tom, lure Katie, and they’ll vote off either Tom or Ian in a major power move. Gregg is maybe bold and smart enough to do it… but it probably won’t happen.

Either way, it should be very interesting from here on out.