Survivor: Palau 5/5 - "We'll Make You Pay"

Moments I liked:

  • Gregg asking for permission at the IC.
  • Caryn’s ability to keep her yap shut and her performance around camp
  • More semi-nekkid Ian. Those arms. nummmmm
  • Jenn’s face when her blankie buddy got snuffed. Priceless.

I am not a Tom fan. His ego is astounding. He did show a speck of humility when talking about his ineptitude with a gun. Tom, trust us, we’re also happy you didn’t become a cop.

BEST. EPISODE. EVER. Usually the big moment comes when it is desperation time. FINALLY, a pre-emptive strike. AND THE NICE GUYS WIN! This REALLY means there is a good chance Tom or Ian will win. I am not sure that the women can beat either at ANY challenge the producers throw at them.

And so, the less anticipated, highly derivative RICH RANKINGS! (K or U for Tribe and Last Week’s Ranking in Parentheses).

FORGOT TO FILE A 1040- I guess you couldn’t outwit everyone!

Wanda,Jonathan,Jolanda, Ashlee,Jeff, Kim,Angie,(sniff) Willard, James, Ibrehem,Bobby Jon,Coby,Scope Mouthwash,Janu, Step (rawks)- Over heard at loser lodge, “Seriously James. Now that we are eliminated, you don’t have to wear the skirt that shows us your balls! And for the love a pete, take a shower!”

Gregg- (K/Rat)- From Rat to second rate, just like that. You showed your hand a little too much in the RC. You should have brought Tom on the cruise instead of Katie. You were a good player. This season was better because you were in the game. You just got outsmarted by better players.

EATING BEEF JERKY- You’re still playing, but you’re praying for a tribe scramble!

Jennifer- (K/Rat)- Sorry. Instead of a Rob and Amber style million dollar wedding, you will have to settle for a spot on a new reality series I am producing: White Trash Wedding Planner. It’s like Tristan and Ryan’s special, but you only get $87.42 for the whole affair. Brought to you by the fine people at “EVERYTHING’S A DOLLAR”… and Pringles.

WHO SAID ANYTHING ABOUT A MERGE?- Middle of the pack players, the lotta ya!

This started out as holding spot if a player’s status was unknown or in flux. We’re well past all that. At this point, either you are beef jerky or prime rib. No time for middle ground anymore.

HEY! LOOK AT HIS MOHAWK-You might make the merge, but you’re grimacing from the jury row!

Katie- (K/Mohawk)- Still the most likely person to sit second chair, but also the LEAST likely to take home the million dollars. And the meeting with Ian? Honey, that’s what they call a shakedown. You got SERVED! And don’t give me the shocked and hurt crap. You were plotting against them all the way! (but if it works for you, I’ll give you the courtesy bump up!) Shady Katie, indeed.

LOOKING FOR A BIG TOM TO ENGLISH DICTIONARY- Big Tom has spent more combined days on the show than anyone. But he didn’t quite grab the brass ring.

Caryn- (K/Big Tom)- Does she have the stones to go it alone and dump Tom? From the way Katie was attacking her in the previews, (while trying to convert her), I’d guess no. Bad move, too. The way I look at it, the only chance ANY of the females have is if the other person in the final TC is another of the females. But, I think Caryn will follow Tom off the cliff.
[sub](But, hey. Her acting WAS incredible!)[/sub]

ARE YOU A RAT OR A SNAKE?- Reserved for a MAXIMUM of two players. You have to be in the driver’s seat for this spot.

Ian-(K/Jerky),Tom-(K/Merge)- I know Tom and Ian can’t both be in the final two. They’ve all but admitted it. But for this week, I want to have them both here because I am about 90% certain one of them will win the million and the other will be genuinely proud of him. And I wanted to lump them in together. This is the best teamwork I have ever seen on Survivor. They sensed danger, pulled in the outsider, and put the screws to the most devious player, so she’d come along. All to take a pretty good player by surprise. This is beautiful play at its best. And because of these two, I love this show more than ever.

Final Four Prediction- Ian, Katie, Tom, Caryn
Winner- Tom over Katie (5-2)

NEW ITEM:
The Jury Tracker:
Coby- (Favors: Katie, Dislikes: Tom)
Janu- (Favors: Tom, Dislikes: Katie)
Steph- (Favors: Ian, Dislikes: Possibly Caryn)
Gregg- (Favors: Jenn, but I don’t see him holding a grudge against anyone)

Great episode. Some observations:

[ul]
[li]I used to think that Tom and Ian were pretty much dead even as players in every area–ability in challenges, handling other players, planning alliances–but tonight proved that Tom is as blind as a bat and Ian is a mastermind who would make Rich Hatch proud. Dumb Tom thought Katie was still on their side and had Ian not opened their eyes, Tom would be on the jury next week. Great job, Ian. Not only for anticipating the knife going in their backs, but for convincing stubborn, know-it-all Tom that it was time to take a risk.[/li][li]Is it just me or does Ian have a MAJOR crush on Katie? His comment when he learned about the reward challange (“I get to take my girl with me!”) seemed innocent by itself, but coupled with next week’s preview where you see him in tears because of her and (apparently) offering to sacrifice his chance a million dollars for her, it makes one wonder. He seems like a really nice guy, so I even though this is Survivor, I hope Katie doesn’t hurt him.[/li][li]Loved the look of shock, then despair on Jenn’s face. How delicious to know that it just hit her that she’s at the mercy of an alliance she never knew existed.[/li][li]Coby and Steph cracked me up at Tribal Council. I loved the expression on their faces when Greg was voted out.[/li][/ul]

I wouldn’t put too much stock in the Ian previews. Has any preview ever NOT been a misdirection? I gotta say, though, that this is probably the best season of Survivor ever. Remarkable. Hats off to Burnett and crew for infusing new life into an ailing series. That’s not easy to do.

I agree with you almost 100% here, except I don’t think Tom is dumb, exactly – just single-minded. At this point in the game, with only six (now five) people left, Tom is so focused on the prize that it’s like he almost forgets that he still has to get there. Can’t cash the check until it’s in your hand, buddy, and you still have to vote out three people first – and it needs to be the right three people, at that.

Last night we really saw how Ian’s “political experience” is paying off. He really is clever, that one, but I also think he is totally my kind of guy, and therefore completely doomed. He has no poker face, and he absolutely wears his heart on his sleeve. I am a little bit stunned that he was able to pull it off last night, and I think he did it only because Gregg was so smug that he never thought to see it coming.

Please, please, don’t let the growing suspicions that Ian has a crush on Katie be true. She is no good for him! I don’t think she is good for anybody, really, but especially not our Ian. It’s almost making me physically ill to think about it – like when I think about my ex-favorite Survivor ever (still #2, though!), Ethan Zohn, with that awful Jenna Morasca. shudder

I was, a little bit, during the RC. He wasn’t very nice. Not awful, but not very nice. Making deals, out loud, in front of people who generally do better than you do in IC’s, is NOT a very good idea. He got what he deserved, IMO. Would have made so much more sense for Gregg to take Tom and Ian with him and try to deal with them. Keep your friends close and your enemies closer, you know? They would have had the numbers, because the odds are good that (1) one of the three guys would have won immunity, and (2) Jenn would have voted with Gregg to keep her own butt off the block a while.

So, anyway … BOO, Gregg! BOO! You were pretty much cute, but kind of a stupid jerk, and I’ll only miss you a little.

Also, before I forget: good on you, Jenn, for actually beating Gregg in the balut-pounding portion of the challenge! I didn’t think you had it in you. That was something of a pleasant surprise.

The only reason Ian knew about Katie’s betrayal of Tom was because she told him that she was thinking about voting for Tom. Remember, girls’ alliance plot from last show? The girls’ alliance may not have worked out, but she did express her doubts about beating Tom to Ian then. I love Ian, too (move over, girls!), but he couldn’t have pulled this off without Tom’s connection to Caryn. He and Tom are working pretty well as a team, and I’d love to see them as the final two. They’d have to be pretty dang smart and lucky to do it, but I think they have a shot.

Let’s see, get rid of Jenn next week, then pull in Katie to vote out Caryn (or vice-versa), then one of them wins the final immunity challenge and picks the other for the final two (a stupid move on their part, but who knows). Yeah, it could happen.

Gee, too bad nobody thought to talk to Steph about Tribal Council and how they’re settling tie votes this time… might have changed their strategy a wee bit… you think Tom would have gone for a 50/50 vote rather than 1/4? I don’t think so.

And since nobody said it above… Steph. Yikes almighty that’s a good-lookin’ woman. If she doesn’t get a modeling contract or a Sprite commercial or something out of this, there is something wrong with the world.

Is it my imagination or were the jury about three shades darker last night, like they had nothing better to do but roast in the sun for three solid days???

The looks on Jenn, Coby, and Steph’s faces at TC … I don’t think I’ve ever, ever been so thrilled with a Survivor ending. That was beautiful. I think it was really Coby putting his hands over his face like an eight-year-old that really got me.

And, as usual, I’m with rockle–Katie will roast slowly over the flames of our vengeance if she makes Ian cry. Do not underestimate the power of Survivor fans consumed with nerdlust. We’ll take you down, Katie. Stay away from our man. Given the way he laid everything out for her and basically told her that it was his way or a one in three chance at the highway, I want to disbelieve the crush theory. My Ian has better sense than that.

Caryn deserves an Emmy. When she had her little statement about what a great actress she is, I turned to my cats and said “Oh, hell, she’s going to blow the whole thing.” (I really need to find humans to watch the show with me.) But that was beautiful. Even down to bringing all her stuff to TC. Somebody get that woman a movie contract.

I had a brief moment at the IC when I thought Tom might just take it because Ian wasn’t wearing his glasses, and looked to be squinting all over the place. But my boy came through. Which is why I love him. :slight_smile:

After the show was over, I reviewed the spoiler sites to see who they picked to win the IC. They all picked Tom. Bwahahahahaha! Go ahead and underestimate Aqua Lad, y’all. The unappreciated guys make the BEST TV boyfriends.

Great episode.

Ian and Tom’s plan was the best that they could do, but Ian’s risky move of including Katie at the 11th hour, and thus avoiding the rock altogether, was freaking brilliant.

However, I think they could have avoided the risk altogether. Here’s how I would have played it were I Tom or Ian. Same plan, except one twist. When the happy threesome returns, have Caryn approach Katie, Gregg and Jen and say, “I’m desperate here. Obviously, I’m the next to go. Since Tom lost immunity, what do you say we form an alliance and vote him off?” IMO, Gregg & Jen would have jumped at the chance to vote Tom off now rather than wait and risk the chance that he’ll keep winning immunity. And Katie would have went along with them.
(I could even see the hamsters in their brains working: Use Caryn to get rid of Ian next, and then they’d vote her off and it would be the happy threesome outwitting everyone.)

Then at TC, Caryn surprises everyone by voting Gregg off. Same results as Ian’s plan with two notable exceptions:

  1. Most of the ill will created by this deception would reside with Caryn. Jen/Gregg/Katie would see HER as the double crosser. This may be very important during the final tribal council.

  2. Katie would have shown her hand, that she was willing to double cross her alliance. This is key because anything they did to her from that point on would have been fair game.

But how does that work? It would still be a 3-3 tie, forcing the rock thing.

Re Katie:

She is this season’s Jenna (the single mother of two from S.1 and the All Stars)

Jenna knew that Ambuh and Boston Rob were tight. Yet, for some reason, when she got the chance to vote one of them off, she chose to remain true to them and hope she could win the final immunity, even though it was 2 against 1. I wondered, and still do, if Rob didn’t flirt with Jenna when Amber wasn’t around. I think the same thing with Katie. What has Gregg said to her to make her so utterly devoted to him?

Not only did she reveal her alliance, but she knocked out Ian, who was supposed to be in her alliance. That is what got Ian to thinking that something was not right. And Gregg confirmed his suspicions when he picked Katie to go along with them and she jumped around like a 6th grader with a crush.

Stupid move on both Gregg and Katie’s part.

Let’s talk about Gregg.

Why did Gregg say, “I’ll watch your back.” and then not 2 minutes later, betray Katie her right in front of her face in order to protect Jen. That was the stupidest playing I have ever witnessed. Why did he do that? No matter what happened, he was guaranteed as spot on that freaking yacht. If he won, he’d be on it; If Jen won, he’d be on it; If Katie won, he’d be on it.

And worse, he revealed their not-so-secret alliance with Katie, which ultimately led to his demise, plus he showed everyone that even though he’s been saying all along that he won’t let his feelings for Jen interfere with “the game,” he obviously has. He might as well have written “Sloppy Seconds” on Katie when he invited her along.

What an idiot. He deserved to go home.

So Katie, Gregg & Jenn would have voted for Tom, and Tom, Ian & Caryn would have voted for Gregg. Which kind of amounts to the same thing, doesn’t it? Which … yeah, what Jaade said.

I think Katie’s plan to jump ship made sense. Sure it failed, but her trying to eliminate Tom and Ian was a smart move. In the final two, no one beats Tom or Ian but Ian or Tom. Maybe in a final two with Gregg or Jenn, she takes home a “sour grapes” million.

But maybe I am giving her too much credit.

She is kind of a dumbass.

She probably just thought he was dreamy.

When they walked out I thought, ‘How did Janu’s boobs get so big?’ Then I realised that it was Steph, a couple of shades darker.

I thought she’d blow it, too. I thought she’d over-do it. If I were in Caryn’s place, I think I would have tried some ‘desperate begging’ to try to save my skin. That would have added some realism, and might have broken up the voting a little. (Probably not; but it may have done.) I was surprised she acted so well.

I’d like to see Tom and Ian be the Final Two. Tom definitely deserves to be there for being such a dominating force in the game. (In an actual survival situation, I think he’d make it just fine.) Ian has also played a good physical game, and has shown some smarts as well. Either one of them could win, and the other would respect the decision. I’d give Ian the nod because he played the game without pissing too many jury members off. On the other hand, Tom is the motivator who got the team far enough into the game so that they could be on the jury in the first place and they might just give him the million because he has been the most dominating player.

But I think that neither Tom nor Ian want to go against each other. They want more of a ‘sure thing’, respect notwithstanding.

So who goes next? Who will be third?

TomIan might want Jenn with them because the jury members know how tight she was with Gregg and that may make them vote against her. That is, they might see Jenn as one of the people that put them out of the game and take it personally. Vote to TomIan.

There was some ‘bad blood’ between Katie and Caryn. If they take Katie, I think they’re guaranteed a vote for TomIan to get the million from Caryn. Probably Steph, too.

Then there’s Caryn. She was seen as a slacker and a weekling early on. She also seemed not to get along with people as well as TomIan. I think that of the three remaining women, she’d be the one with the least support from the Jury. I think TomIan should choose her to go into the Final Two. TomIan should be thinking about that when they vote the next person off.

Okay, so who’s next? Tom is an obvious threat. Ian knows he’ll have to get rid of him sooner or later. Caryn seems to be joined to Tom by a leash. Jenn is pissed off at everyone for not voting off The Expendable. Katie feels betrayed by Ian. Katie and Jenn were in Gregg’s alliance. I imagine them conspiring against Tom. They might convince Ian to join them, because Ian knows Tom has to leave if he wants a chance at winning (and he seems attached to Katie). I think TomIan + Caryn might want to boot Jenn, since they know she and Gregg were plotting against them. There’s always a chance of another ‘girl alliance’; but after Caryn spilled the beans before, I don’t think Jenn and Katie will trust her.

So. If Katie doesn’t convince Ian that Tom must go next, then I think Jenn will be next to go. If she does convince him, then Tom is out (assuming he doesn’t win immunity).

You guys are mean! The night I have VCR issues, everybody just has to say “best episode ever.” :frowning:

That being said, as usual, everybody’s theorizing is cool, once you cut throught the nerdlust.

watsonwil I always enjoy the rankings, and the Jury Tracker is a most excellent addition to an already good feature.

I agree. watsonwill, you are truly the one who rawks.

And I want to throw some props to MB for instituting the Purple Rock of Doom[sup]TM[/sup] tie breaker so many seasons ago. We all hated it a the time (poor Pascal), but the long term result has been well worth the initial sacrifice. The lesson, as always: Mark Burnett is a television god.

Pash

Oh screw. You’re right. And I’m not even calorie deprived. :smack:

Did any of you guys who are talking about the purple rocks watch the first half of this season? They aren’t doing that any more. There were two ties a Ulong tribal councils, and the way they’re settling ties is that the people who were voted for don’t get to vote a second time, but all the others get to vote again for one of those two people until the tie is broken.