Survivor Predictions for 4/4/02

Who do you think is going tonight and why ?

I think Gina will go if Maraamu loses because she is the only original Maraamu left in her tribe.

If Rotu loses I think Rob will probably go, but I really hope he doesn’t. The show needs someone to hate otherwise it will get really boring.

Don’t worry there is always Sean, our favorite lazy bigot.

-me

That’s true, but I just see Sean as lazy, not evil.

They will really have to work hard to figure out how to make Rotu lose again. Yeah, Gina will be gone.

IMO, Mark was an idiot. If Rotu loses, they have to boot one of the 3. I would probably prefer if they booted V, so they kept Sean and Rob to be stupidly entertaining.

Can’t figure why EVERYONE voted for Gabe. Also, can’t figure booting a family member when not necessary will play well with Paschal and Neleh.

Maaramu loses: Kathy’s gone. We’re already seen this season that tribal lines don’t necessarily make automatic alliances–which I’m glad to see. Neleh and Paschal (like the rest of Rotu) have always seemed at least a little irked with Kathy. Couple this with how Neleh and Gina have apparently bonded and Neleh and Paschal’s friendship, and I don’t think it’d take much provocation to convince N&P to keep Gina and boot Kathy.

Rotu loses: Sean/Rob is gone; it’s difficult to say which–whoever pisses off the Shaky Alliance the most tonight. They voted off Gabe because he was a wildcard–maybe he’d vote with John & co., maybe not. Now that he’s gone, it’s a clear 4-3 advantage for Original Rotu and it’ll be one of these lazy bozos.

I think Maaramu is still due to win another IC. That–and some wishful thinking–make me say that Sean is gone tonight.

I suspect that Rotu will lose immunity again. They are still down by three so Maraamu can pick who they want to go against them for the IC (which is arguably more important than the RC).

We can assume that Neleh and Paschal will vote together. So, do they vote for Kathy or Gina?

They know that Gabe is gone so they know that the original Rotu are fractured. (They can assume that Rob, Sean and Vee voted together so they have to assume that at least one Rotu jumped over to join them. They probably would never think that everyone went against Gabe.)

If Gina has talked to them they know that she will not be voting with the other original Maraamu. On the other hand, since Kathy was the one who got along the least well with the other Rotu, she might be tempted to join a Rob/Sean/Vee alliance in an attempt to make it to the final 4.

If they save Gina she will most likely stay with them since she again will not join Rob/Sean/Vee and, as an original Maraamu, she will want some protection from the numerically superior original Rotu.

The only other possibility is that Gina and Kathy form an alliance with Gina offering to let Kathy join her and the other original Maraamu after the merge. This would give them at least equity post-merge (4 original Maraamu + Kathy). They would probably target Neleh since Paschal, being older, is less of a threat for individual ICs post-merge. Neleh would have to lose a tiebreaker in this case since I can’t see Paschal turning against her.

At any rate, I suspect Kathy is most likely to go, followed by Neleh with Gina as a distant third.

Umm… That first line should read “I suspect that Maraamu will lose immunity again. They are still down by three so Rotu can pick who they want to go against them for the IC…” It helps to keep the tribes straight…:rolleyes:

Definitely Rob if Rotu loses IC. And I think Gina is history if Maraamu loses, although I wouldn’t be surprised if Kathy gets the boot instead.

Kathy goes. I really, really want to be wrong and watch Sean/Rob make the walk of shame. But I do not see how long they can keep fixing the contests to help Marumaru.

:rolleyes:

-me

<Possible spoilers, sorta>

The CBS website said that someone suggests that their tribe throw the immunity challenge - but who? And will they do it? Tune in tomorrow blah blah blah.

If that happens, it’s gotta be Rotu wanting to get rid of one of the lazymint twins.

You have been warned.

Kathy amazingly survived, and Gina got the boot. Sigh. . . .

Good strategic move as Kathy is not a real threat, and Gina after the Merge would be. The “two stooges” pathetic performance in the canoe with a HUGE leade in the reward challenge was a thing to behold. That’s some solid leadership there dimwit.

The Merge should be interesting indeed. The “clash of the titans” previewed this week should be worth a few laughs. I predict that the mastermind goes this week and Sean, who has amazing learned to shut his mouth, goes next week (this order could be effected by immunity- but not for long). Annoying, wrong tribe and a threat at challenges = short life on the island.

Now it gets interesting. . .

-me

Son of a whore!

Pretty, intelligent Gina gets the bus ticket! And loudmouth Kathy gets to stay! Arrrgggghhhhh!!!

Okay, Kathy is less of a threat after the merge than Gina. Remember the weaving thing? “Do the eyes first! Krawk!” Kathy really had great leadership skills in that one, didn’t she? How did she get to lead the tribe through the maze? Yeah, her skills show again. And of course you put sand on a coals to keep them going! I never did believe that Smokey Bear when I was a kid with his bucket of sand and a shovel, and I’ve always wondered why they put sand in ashtrays. What? Do they want to keep the butts smoldering? Aiyiyi. And she seems to think she’s an expert. Damn, I’ll miss Gina and her black bikini… :frowning:

Additional spoiler…

Rob is still an idiot.

A spoiler to who? Rob?

I felt for the outrigger oddballs. Every time we go canoeing I’m never allowed to sit in back 'cause my wife insists I don’t know how to steer. That was hysterical though.

And did I miss John’s coronation? Apparently he was appointed “Leader of the Whole Frickin’ Universe” while I wasn’t paying attention. I like Robert’s attitude (every time I type his name I can’t help but think of Raymond’s brother - it really does seem to fit). Let John be the target, I’ll just stay out of trouble and coast. And the skinny dipping? Where is it written that every Survivor must have a naked gay guy who thinks they’re running the show?

I wonder how the merge will be done. If they’re allowed to pick an existing camp, they’d be fools not to pick Camp Mamahoho. Odds are though that Burnett has found some remote desolate spot without food or water nearby for a third camp.

Agreed, but the “dumb & dumber” line was pretty funny.

They really fooled Gina into thinking they thought of her as “family.” Uh huh. Until the voting time.

However, I agree with them that it would have been silly of them strategically to keep Gina because she would have been a real black sheep once the merger was done. Now Paschal, Neleh and Kathy are the black sheeps but they have strength in numbers. A voting block of 3 isn’t bad. And Rob and John will both be courting the reunited Rotus in order to guarantee their survival.

See, Rotu should have gotten rid of Rob last week when they had the chance! Why in hell did they get rid of Gabe? Stupid, stupid.

Hail Rob! Prince of Irony!

Well for one, Gabe was tight with Paschal, making it four votes to four votes among the original Rotu. J/R/T/Z are clearly in the driver’s seat, if they can manage not to screw it up.

I predict Rob gets tossed next week. The guy is quite athletic, though, so I can easily see him winning immunity. If he does win immunity, Sean will probably get the boot. The Gang of Four has to pick off the Maramorons to keep them from aligning with N/P/K. It should be easy to convince the three reuinited members to vote with them in kicking off Rob and Sean. The showdown should be when they’re gone and it’s down to J/R/T/Z versus N/P/K and Vecepia. Whoever wins that tiebreaker has a clear path to the Final Four, barring last-minute alliance-swapping.

BTW, Kathy was right to cover the coals in sand. It insulates the coals to keep them from losing their heat to the air. Problem was, they didn’t have enough coals to keep warm. If they had just left the fire burning in the open, there would have been nothing but ash when they got back.

minty green
Eagle Scout

I think John might come to regret not booting Rob when he had the chance. Now Rob is in position to save himself - at least for a while, through immunity. And as long as he, V, and Sean remain tight, they are an alternative to whoever freels they are falling out of favor with the others. Could be really ugly with 3 alliances. With Gina gone, it is possible that P/N/K might hook up with R/S/V - especially if P/N are pissed at John manipulating to get Gabe booted.

When Rob said “Do I have stupid written across my face?” I SO wanted Jphn to say “YES!”

As big of an ass as Rob is, he was a total stud in both challenges. My god, it was painful watching the 2 of them try to paddle.

Wonder where the merged tribe will set up?
Also wonder why fruit trees are so common around camp M, but R tribe has not found any similar sources? I’ll have to check the maps again.

Is Neleh’s nose getting bigger and redder as time passes?

I seem to recall Paschal runs - but did anyone else think he might keel over with a heart attack during the race?

However, if one douses too much sand onto the coals, it does indeed put the fire out.
Booklover, Girl Scout

It strikes me that what Maraamu lacks is someone with good spatial sense, as shown in both the weaving/jigsaw puzzle thing and in the maze. Kathy doesn’t stop to think about the logic; she just charges blindly ahead.

Anyone else notice that Paschal had an Ace bandage thing on his knee? Not good if it’s bothering him (the knee, not the bandage).

I was annoyed by John’s circular logic—in one of the “confessions” he says, “I’m 36, I’ve been out for years” and then later says that Rob “outed” him by asking if he was gay.

Putting the fire out is no big deal. You just dont want to lose the heat of the coals, so you can restart it later. Dunno about you Girl Scouts, but the last thing we always did at night on campouts was to bank the fire to keep the coals hot until morning. Worked like a charm, as long as your fire had been big enough in the first place.