Survivor Predictions for 4/11

With the big merge coming this week, it’s hard to guess what’s going to happen.

I like Rob, he’s fun to watch. I think there’s a chanch he might go, but I hope not.

I also think Kathy has a chanch to go. She seemed to annoy her tribe mates before the switch.

It would be fun to see Rob and John hook up to make a new alliance. I would love to see those two in the finals.

Short and sweet:

If he doesn’t win immunity, Rob is gone.

If Rob wins immunity, Sean is oppressed by the man.

In no particular order - Rob, Sean, and V.
THEN, it gets interesting!

Now is a run of three boring weeks when the last of the original Marumorons gets set to the hotel. Enjoy the humor of Rob trying to be clever. Watch Sean make lots of friends with his enlightened views of race and gender relations. Watch V futilely try and distance herself from those two morons. :wink:

The real question- will Pascal ever win any challenges.

Real question #2, how many people will roll their eyes at something John says or does this episode. :rolleyes:

Don’t we normally do this on Thursday? What’s up with the gun-jumping?


I would think the most likely vote-off order will be:


leaving John, Robert, Zoe and Tammy as the final 4.

If Rob wins immunity then I think Kathy will go in an attempt by old Rotu to convince Rob/Sean/Vee that they don’t have anything to to worry about; that they will vote off the new Maraamu people before voting off the new Rotus. This might cause Rob to let his guard down enough to let him blow an immunity challange (perhaps at someone’s suggestion that Sean is vunerable?) and open himself up to being voted out.

So, I’ll go with Rob, unless he wins immunity, in which case I’ll say Kathy.

I think John is going to be the one to go - provided he doesn’t obtain immunity.

Here is my thinking.

There are basically three groups:

The Old-Rotu/New-Maraamu (Neleh, Paschal, and Kathy)
The Old-Maraamu/New-Rotu (Rob, Sean, and Vecepia)
The All-Rotu (John, Robert, Zoe, and Tammy)

I don’t think Paschal or Neleh were real happy about Gabe getting the boot. Once they find out that the original Rotus had pushed this, they will probably figure out that John was behind it.

Neither group of three should see much of an advantage in forming an alliance with John and the All-Rotu group. If they did form an alliance, all that would happen is the other group of three would be voted off, then they themselves would be forced off by the power of the four All-Rotus.

Strategically, the best thing either group of three can do is to join with the other group of three and pick off the four All-Rotus. Then it would be three on three, and each side has a legit shot to be in the winners group.

In other words – if Neleh/Paschal/Kathy or Rob/Sean/Vecepia join with John and his group of four, then they are pretty much guaranteed the 7th, 6th, and 5th place finish. If the groups of three join with each other, they pretty much assure themselves of a worst case 6th, 5th, and 4th place finish and a best case shot at actually winning.

I think that Paschal or Kathy will take this line of thinking and convince the groups of three to join – and vote off John. Depending on what the tie-breaker is, I think we have a real chance at this thing coming down to Rob and Sean.

Sorry if this post doesn’t make sense, my mind is still cluttered with rage after the beautiful Gina was shown the door.

Interesting theory, meathead, but I am not in agreeance with it. [sup]*[/sup]

I think (I emphasize that word because this is pure speculation on my part) that the flaw in your scenario is the reactions of Neleh and Paschal. Although they are upset by the ousting of Gabe, I think they will still have some loyalty to their former tribemates. (Or possibly just not figure out that John & Co. are a strong alliance until it’s too late.) Also, I’m not sure how strong their connection to Kathy is.

I see them (N & P) joining up with the Rotu 4 and going out in 5th and 6th place. Or maybe even 4th and 5th, if the Gang of Four decide to go ahead and boot Feuhrer John early, once they’re locked in.


Oh, I guess I should post my own predictions, too…

Gotta go with the crowd here: Rob goes unless he wins immunity. If he does, Sean goes. Kathi goes soon, but not before Sean and Rob, I think. She’s toned down the attitude a bit, and she is a good forager. Plus, in the post-merge tribe, you want to vote out the threats first, and she is lousy at the challenges.

Meathead has it. That would be the smart way to play. Therefore, it won’t happen, because Survivor contestants are idiots.

What I’d like to see is the 3-3 alliance ganging up on the 4 team. Then, someone on the 4 team tries to break it up thusly: they approach someone, say Rob, and point out that if their plan works, there will then be a 3 on 3 battle, and the whole team’s fate will depend on that first vote. The 4 team would threaten to use all their votes on the person they’re threatening, so that when the 3 vs 3 vote came, that person would have like 10 votes against him, making him vulnerable.

But no one on the game is that smart.

Of course nobody likes or trusts Sean or Rob (rightly so) as they have shown themselves to be completely untrustworthy. Teaming with them is a mistake as they will look to screw you the first chance they get.

Better strategy, IMHO- is to ditch Sean and Rob ASAP, as they are young and have plenty of energy from not working to save for challenges. Plus they will do nothing but lie to people and cause trouble. Plus they are lazy. Plus nobody likes them. So out they go. Pascal et al are not really threats- they come back “feeling the Rotu love” lay low (maybe pick up V) and strike at John when the moment is right.

IMHO- Pascal and his “daughter” could go far- especially when the power player turn on each other (which they will as I imagine they really don’t want the three other strongest players against them in the final 4).

But the “Jury Effect” will play a part as well.

In summary-- now, the fun begins.


But the first person voted out after the merge isn’t on the jury. They go into the merge with 10. Then they vote out one, leaving 9, and the next 7 voted out are on the jury. So that might be a consideration, too. Or maybe not.

I wrote a couple of weeks ago that the loss of Gina would be the key to victory for the Gang of Four. I’m standing by this. It’s true as meathead pointed out that the four are theoretically vulnerable to the other six voting against them. But as Smeghead wrote, no one left is going to be able to organize the six outsiders. John will be able to promise them just enough (vote with us and we won’t vote you off this week) to keep them from ganging up against his alliance. I second tanstaafl’s list of the order you’ll see people leaving.

The downside is that the show is going to get boring. We’ll know who’s going to stay or go and after a couple more episodes we won’t even have Rob around to laugh at.

Meathead and Smeghead have the tribal dymanic nailed. There are three voting blocs, any two of which could combine to pick off the leader of the third. Here are the best strategies for each group:

Old Rotu: Should combine with New Maraamu to pick off Rob (preferably) or Sean (alternatively). Siding with New Rotu against New Maraamu is stupid, because the remaining two would have immediate confirmation of Old Rotu’s evil intent and would then have big incentive to team up with New Rotu next week, giving them a 5-4 edge over the Gang of Four.

New Maraamu: Should team up with New Rotu to boot John. If they combine with Old Rotu, they’ll never make it to the final four. Booting John would make everything 3-3-3, and they could easily add a couple people from Old Rotu to start picking off New Rotu.

New Rotu: Should team up with New Maraamu to boot anybody from Old Rotu. (I don’t think John is necessarily the best choice, because leaving him in the game would keep a juicy target around for later, when they really need to take control of the game.) Teaming up with Old Rotu to boot a New Maraamu would be stupid, as it would give the Gang of Four a much clearer shot at the Final Four.

My prediction: New Rotu will be too stupid to see the strategic opportunity and will vote with Old Rotu to boot Kathy. Rob or Sean finally get kicked next week because Neleh and Paschal will be too nice to turn their backs on their Old Rotu friends. One of the Gang of Four may eventually be jettisoned by their alliance, but I see at least three of them making it to the Final Four.

Like all my predictions this time, I am sure this one is also crap. :slight_smile:

I think Vee has split off considerably from Old Rotu. You see her with Tammy a lot in background shots. And Tina Wesson has advised that observing who hangs with whom can be telling. The ABT spoiler still isn’t up, which means that they’re having a real hard time figuring out what’s what from their fifty-minute feed. This will quite likely be the best Survivor episode yet. The spoiler community is just all over the place this week. ABT is six for six. We’ll see how they do for seven.

Apparently the rumor has been that Kathy is gone. I haven’t actually seen it, but one of my writers, Brian, has discussed it in his “Reality Factor” column.

But no matter what, I have to agree with his conclusion:

"My pick for this week’s booted player? Well it won’t be Gabe or Patricia. I can be sure of that. It will definitely be someone that’s not on the jury. And they won’t win immunity. "


ABT is up. Very late. I sure hope they’re wrong. Is the Kathy Rumor you’re talking about the one where she told another real estate agent that she’s booted tonight? There’s a guy at Sucks who posted an informant spoiler about her. I sure hope he’s right.


David B , not only is Brian one of my favorite writers, he’s also a good personal friend of mine. He’s every bit as charming in real life as his words come across on the page.

/end hijack/

Lib, excuse my ignorance, but what is ABT, and how do they get 50 minutes of Survivor in advance of the rest of us?

ABT is a group that had guessed everything right for most of the last season, it stands for Acme Brain Trust. I don’t really think they have a satellite feed or anything, I think they just try to analize things and they make good guesses.

I don’t know what Lib’s “50 minute feed” comment is about, since they deny having advance satellite feeds and such. As I understand it, they just analyze the available information, including the week’s previews and promos, plus any spoiler info that’s floating about, then vote on who they think will win reward and immunity, and who gets the boot. The results get posted the afternoon of the show. They have been extremely accurate this time, missing only a couple of reward challenges (including last week’s). How they predicted Peter would get the boot in Week 1 is beyond me. It will be interesting to see how well they hold up the rest of the way.