Survivor Predictions for 4/11

SPOILERS COMING !!!

Ok, I know everyone said he was going, but I’m so pissed that Rob got voted off. There hasn’t been anyone this interesting to watch since Rich. Damn I’m pissed. :mad:

Okay, all those people on the Survivor boards who’ve been saying Rob is some sort of tactical genius are total schmucks. The guy’s outnumbered 4-3, he needs votes to stay alive, so he forms a secret alliance with one person from the other tribe?!? Freakin’ moron. You’ve got to take that gift from heaven of the ambassadors’ meeting and lay the seeds for all of the newcomers to give in to the dark side. And it ought to be easy to do. “Hey, Kathy, those guys have joined up with us to vote off all three of you, starting with you. Let’s get rid of those jerks.”

What a dumbass.

Anyway, I think things are starting to get predictable from here. Sean is next–good riddance, if there was ever any such thing as riddance–followed by Kathy.

And speaking of Kathy, what a dumbass. Paranoia takes over her mindset, so she freaks out and decides she’s going to do the whole thing on her own? For the next 18 days? I don’t think so. At this point in the game, if you find out somebody’s targeting you, the first thing you do is start assembling a voting bloc to kill your assassin. You damn sure don’t announce to the world that, no thanks, I’m keeping immunity because you guys want my head on a platter.

I like the new twist of being able to hand immunity to anybody you want. It’s hard to tell how that will play out, but most tribal council decisions for the next few weeks are going to be based on killing off voting blocs, not individuals. C’mon, if you’re in the majority, do you really care whether you vote off Paschal or the girl with the extra syllable in her name? I think not. And by the time you’re down to the last few players, handing it over to somebody else is just an invitation for a tie. So upon further reflection, I don’t think it’s going to make a lick of difference.

Guess the Kathy spoiler was wrong. So much for that.

As far as minty asking:

Actually, that one was easy. The first boot usually is.

They compared publicity photos and video clips and found that in one all the members of Rotu were walking along, but only seven Maraamu. OK, maybe the 8th was out of the picture, right? Nope, they looked at the growth of beard on the guys and knew it had to have been several days and thus must have been after the first immunity challenge.

The real trick was that the seventh person’s face on Maraamu was covered up – it was either Gina or Peter. By comparing the height of that person to the others and the clothes that person was wearing, they determined that it was Gina – which meant Peter had to be the one who had gotten the boot.

The reason the first boot is always the easiest is precisely because there are publicity photos and video clips out there. I don’t think Mark Burnett cares too much if people figure out who the first one is. After that, though, he clamps down.

NotWithoutRage said:

Well, next time you see him, say “Hi!” for me. (Not that I don’t talk to him every day in e-mail, mind you, but I’m going for the personal touch.)

As long as you’re spoiling the spoilers, you want to let us in on how they knew Kathy would win immunity tonight?

Dunno that one. The last spoiler I heard was that she would be booted! For all I know, they have a secret hotline to Mark Burnett.

All I can say is thank God. If I had to hear his whiny Boston accent and his feeble Machiavellian plots for another week…

Played out pretty much the way I thought it would.

Rob showed the no matter who good an opportunity he had before him, he is capable of screwing it up. He seemed to miss the central point of intrigue; it should have a goal. He had “angles” but he didn’t have a plan since the swap.

One ongoing problem with the series has been trying to figure out what’s being left off the screen. This week’s episode was particularly bad. I really wanted to know what Neleh and Paschal were doing after the merger; their actions were key to figuring out what will happen in the next few weeks. But the producers decided to all but leave them out of this week’s show (probably for that very reason).

For at least the next four weeks, the Gang of Four will rule. The four smart people have formed an alliance; none of the others have the brains to break it up or break into it. Barring some outside factor, the next interesting vote will be if when they get down to five, the last outsider wins immunity. Otherwise, it’ll go down to the final four before they have to cannibalize one of their own. My guess right now is Tammy will be the one jettisoned by the other three.

The Kathy spoiler was done-up big time at Sucks by a guy named ethanfan. He said that he had a friend who was in the business (real estate) with Kathy, and that Kathy had told her that April 11 was her boot date. These informant spoilers are notoriously inaccurate, but ethanfan posted weeks ago, and the thread became the longest one in the forum. People were falling for it hook, line, and sinker. I queried him about a contradiction in two of his posts, one where he said she knew nothing about the spoiler boards and another where he said she knew that he was posting at Sucks. He dismissed it by saying that he told her in between, but I smelled a rat.

Anyway, ABT is one of many entities who get an abbreviated feed just a few hours before air-time. At least, that’s according to sources at Sucks and other sites. Mostly news-type people and reviewers get them. They usually post by 2:00, but this week, they weren’t up until after 4:00. My guess was that what they were seeing in the feed was too controversial to call. In retrospect, that seems right. Without knowing who won immunity, it could be pretty hard to tell what would unfold.

And, by the way, they’re now seven for seven.

Well, it’s easy to be perfect when you get the info before everybody else…

All of the ones that picked Kathy were wrong- and all of the ones that post 2 hours ahead of time are kind of bogus. Early feed- that’s it. Kind of pathetic really. Every year the spoiler sites get it wrong (picking 2 hours earlier is not “picking” it’s reporting) and every year people still waste their time at those sites. . .

It would be nice if people just posted their own predictions and thoughts rather than parrot those of the spoiler sites. But that’s just my opinion, what the heck do I know. . . .

As to the Godfather, good riddence. You didn’t even make the jury- HA!

Hey Sean- don’t let the door hit you in the butt on the way back to the hotel!

It was nice to see V stick the knife in Rob’s back, nice touch!

By the way, to me it appears John has no real hope of winning it all. Conversely I really like the game Tammy is playing. She is still my favorite to win it all.

-me

Spoiler site free since Survivor 1

Is it too mean for me to observe that Kathy seems extra dense even for a RE agent?

I don’t remember any of this “Don’t lie to my face” crap from the previous shows.

Whatever Rob’s intentions were (if he had any) all he seemed to accomplish was making everyone really uncomfortable. A winning tactic Sean quickly picked up on. Hey Sean, what is it like to be a black man?

I was glad the one time Zoe just told Rob she wasn’t going to answer his question.

What exactly did V say over her vote? What was her reason for voting for Rob? She’s walking dead.

Neleh and Paschal are going to be pretty juicy targets. I think they erred strategically by getting too close to each other.

What is with Robert? “I am the general.” What a load.

I had Rob on my list well in advance. (It’s up above somewhere.) I also have my picks for the next 5, so…

I hate to say it, but I was almost sad to see Boston Jerkface go. He was fun to watch.

Kathy Kathy Kathy. You do realize that your vote for Zoe is going to come back and haunt you in ways you can’t imagine.

Sean and John are now annoying me equally. They must go. I predict the next three in no cetain order will be those two and Kathy.

My one big question from last night was how they chose where the Santiago tribe was going to live. IIRC (which I probably don’t), SI got to choose, SII went to a neutral third camp, SIII got to choose, but our current knuckleheads went to Rotu. Why?

If there was choice involved, how could they have NOT picked camp Moo-Moo? You know, that camp with all the food? Maybe the producers didn’t realize food would be so plentiful and forced the merged tribe to live at Rotu to make things as difficult as possible. I wonder if they’d be allowed to walk/raft back to the other place and load up?

I have to admit–as much as I loathe and despise Rob and everything he stands for…he was right; John did go back on his word to vote for new Maraamu first.

Too bad. Neener neener.

My favorite moment of last night was definitely watching Slob throw away a chance at a million by trying to splash someone else.

And regarding the whole Immunity Challenge, were we shown events in anything close to real time? Yes, I know the edting gods were at work, but did people start dropping like flies so quickly?

I was ready for the “1 Hour” “2 Hour” “6 Hour” captions to start coming and it was seemingly over in five minutes.

I agree, although I think Robert has a shot, as well. I think him, Tammy, and Zoe are a lock for the final three. Who finally wins of those, I can’t guess. Too many variables, mainly having to do with how the jury members feel about them.

Of course, it’s possible that John could make it that far too, if some people decide they’d rather be up against him in the final two. It would be a good strategy to set yourself up against someone nobody likes…although no one has done it on any of the previous incarnations.

My random observations from last night:

Rob: “This tribe is a bunch of morons.” Ha! Which moron was it who lost the immunity challenge because he tried to splash someone?

Kathy totally wanted to jump Rob’s bones at the ambassador camp.

“Soliantu” is the stupidest tribe name yet.

Did y’all notice Zoe’s arms when she was carrying the water jug? They’re enormous! I bet she could break me in half.

Kathy is a dumbass. Confronting everyone like that, and voting for Zoe with no support? She’s toast, but there’s no rush to vote her off, really. She’s all alone, and can be picked off at leisure.

Vee has bought herself some time by playing nice with the Gang of Four. If she plays her cards right (particularly in light of Neleh’s blowup next week, as seen in the previews), she might make it quite a bit farther.

I also thought the possiblility of assigning immunity was interesting. But, as minty says, it probably won’t make any difference. You’d have to be pretty darn confident to give away immunity. And the sheer arrogance of doing so would likely make you a target.

Interesting thought over on David B’s site. What about the possibilities of Paschal, Neleh, and Kathy teaming up with Sean and/or V to vote out one of the 4.
Last night would have been a great opportunity. Might still be a possibility. Kathy would be hot to vote for Zoe, and Sean would certainly help oust John. If the 4 vote for - say - Sean, the other 5 could make it a whole new ball game.
(I’m just hoping SOMETHING happens to make it more interesting than I fear it will turn out.)

I have to respectfully disagree. Rich was fun and interesting. Rob was just annoying and stupid. I am sooooo glad he is finally gone.

My take on last night: It was funny no one picked up the the pre-merge get-together, when they got the mail about sending one person to a secret location.
They all knew they were down to 10 people, and yet no one wanted to be the one person to go alone. They all just stood there looking at each other. Were they not thinking? I was nearly screaming at the TV, “It’s the merge thing! You’ll get to eat! You’ll get beer or wine! GO!”
I think the admonition to wear long pants and a long sleeved shirt scared them off.
Did John really touch the raft or was he picking up his hat (or something)?
He had something between his feet, and I thought he was just picking it up.