Survivor 5/2/02: Pick 'em and poke fun at 'em

I don’t think the outcome of this week’s show is going to be very surprising. Tammy and Robert are still the enemy to the Anti-Alliance Alliance, so one of them is almost certain to get kicked tonight. I’ll be cheering for Tammy to keep going at her immunity run, but eventually she’s going to have to fall short. So my guess is Tammy takes the walk of shame tonight.

Of course, it’s possible that Sean and Vee could still feel like the outsiders compared to N-P-K. If so, they may realize they need Tammy and Robert to beat those three. Final Four is a lot better than Final Five, which is where one of those two is going to get left behind, I’m sure. Plus, you’have to be a fool to go up against Paschal or Neleh in the final vote.

If S and V both want to be guaranteed a spot in F4, they have to move tonight. But they won’t, because they’re both terrible players who have only advanced this far through sheer luck and being carried on the backs of others. They could still force a 3-3 tie next week by allying with the last Gang of Four member, but it’s too late to guarantee anything by then.

All in all, I have to think Kathy has the best position in the game. She’s the swing vote in her alliance, she could win it all going up against Sean or Vee, probably even Tammy or Robert. She’ll need immunity at F3 to break up whoever remains of S/V or P/N, but I see a much clearer path to the final than anyone else on the island.
So whaddaya say? Like last week, let’s stay away from any spoilers (though I’m not aware of any good ones for this week).

Hey minty- we started the treads 2 mins apart (great minds and such forth) I even checked first- oh well.

I think Kathy is actually in the worst position of all the players to win. There are 3 groups of 2 (S-V, G-T, N-P) and her. She is not particularly well liked either. While she has done ok on the challenges, she is a poor match up on the more physical ones unless matched against Pascal. Everyone has her mentally tabbed to go out at 3. Even if she actually won and made it to the jury, unless she is matched against Sean she will lose. So her only hope would be to side with Sean after the Alliance members are gone, or after Tammy gets dumped tonight make a move for Neleh (adding the General?).

Again, once Tammy is gone all of the deserving players are out. The role of the alliances are too much in the show now- its not “survivor” its “political scheming and backstabbing 101”.

-me

Yeah, there are three groups of two. But T-R are dead in the water, and nobody benefits by voting out Kathy for the next couple rounds. Barring an unlikely T-R-S-V alliance tonight, Kathy is guaranteed a spot at F5.

At that point, you have two two-person alliances. Sean and Vee aren’t going to vote against each other, and Neleh and Paschal aren’t going to vote against each other. It’s stupid to vote out Kathy at that point, because that means both pairs go into F4 tied. Breaking up the other pair, however, means you and your buddy go with Kathy to F3, which gives you a great shot at going into F2 together.

Kathy is the kingmaker. She needs immunity at F3 to make it to the last vote, but I think she can do it.

SVKNP are so turned off by Tammy so she will be bounced off tonight or Robert will be bounced if Tammy wins immunity. In either case, they are the next to bounce out because they were political amateurs.
Survivor has always been about coalition building and cut-throat, backstabbing which will be a real dilemna for SVKNP. [I’ve been really surprised by the competitive behavior shown on Frontier House over on PBS!].
So what’s going to happen? Are we going to see any immunity transfers? I wish I knew more about Sean and V. Kathy has won immunity twice; she’ll probably be able to win one more time. SV and NP will see her as the swing vote. The last thread I thought SV would be the final pair. This time I think it’ll be between N and K with the jury picking N…

I think Neleh is deserving as well. I was prepared to dislike her before the show. From her profile, I took her to be a bible-thumping goody-goody. But her performance on the island has impressed me. Her skill at dismembering and eating snails; her victory in the gross-food competition; her stamina and general good humor throughout; and finally, her ability to face facts and be ruthless when it became clear that the Gang of Four needed to be broken if anyone else was to have a chance. After Tammy, she’s the one I would most like to see win.

Well argued Ferrous. Neleh has been impressive as of late tactically. Especially with her control of Pascal and ability to bring Kathy along for voting purposes. Even better, she has not alienated anyone- which will be key for the final jury vote.

But-- she has done NOTHING on the challenges, and not really been strong enough on the physical (or mental) work when it comes to the camp and the actual surviving, in comparison to many of the others- she was very passive. Of course, that is how the game has evovled, but the rules need to be tweaked further. The quiz for the ties and immunity donation are a start, but how about multiple immunity chances (first and second get it) and two intermixes of groups? One at random, one as a reward challenge? Everyone know how to play the game now- so some of the better people get dumped too early now. Oh well, it’s not as if I won’t continue to watch, as I am Suvivor’s bitch.

-me

Going on past evidence that I don’t have a clue, I’m making my predictions based on the contratrian theory.

Sean and Vecepia form an alliance with Robert and Tammy. The reward challenge is a cliff diving competition which all the contestants decide to skip because of the meager reward; a stale moon pie and half a glass of Tang. The immunity challenge is a series of essay questions on trigonometry; Kathy surprises everyone with her easy victory. Paschal and Neleh realize they’re in danger and have a falling out; Paschal breaks down and tearfully tells everyone in the new alliance that they’re like his own children while Neleh starts brooding by herself and spending hours sharpening the machete and muttering to herself in German.

At the Council, it’s revealed that Vecepia and Kathy have engineered a secret alliance with Tammy and Neleh. Robert and Sean reveal that they are gay lovers in hopes of joining the women’s alliance. Kathy inexplicably hands her immunity necklace over to Paschal. With no other choices available, Jeff is kicked off the show by a 6-1 vote (Paschal refuses to vote against Jeff, who he says is like a nephew to him, or maybe a second cousin who grew up in the same town).

elf6c
She hasn’t done NOTHING on the challenges. As I said earlier, she secured victory for her tribe in the rotten fish eating challenge. She was the one picked by the other tribe for the tie breaker, and she came through like a champion.

As for being passive…I don’t know. We really don’t see very much of the daily life of the camp, so it’s kind of hard to say how much she participated. But I think it’s safe to say that, if she wasn’t exactly a dynamo (and how many Kathys do you need?), she at least wasn’t a slacker either.

Further, she always seems to be cheerful and kind to everyone. That would have to have a positive effect on morale overall, I think. I wouldn’t mind having her on my team.

I like Ferrous’ theory. Nelah presents this image of being sweet little Miss Goody Two Shoes, but in reality she’s got some big balls, figuratively speaking, of course.

Depending on the challenges, I think either Tammy or Robert will get the boot.

I am not anti-Neleh at all- out of all of the remaining players she deserves the win the most.

Also the food challenge was rather minor (IMHO), and she did get picked for the second round because of how poorly she did on the first round. She won that second round mainly because of how poorly her opponent did. Hardly a stirling triumph in my book.

While no slacker (as part of the hard working Rotu’s) she definitely was not a force in camp. Rather she and Pascal were consistently the weak links in the early Rotu challenges and camp set up. Still both are decent players and I would not begrudge them the money like if Zoe, Rob or Sean won (although if Sean breaks up the N-P run to the finals my objection to his winning would be muted). Gina or Hunter deserve it alot more, but they lucked out on being stuck with the band of idiots. :mad:

However, laying low and making quiet alliances and a strong partner has seemed to be the winning strategy. After Colby’s foolish loss of the million I just did not think anyone would fall for that again.

Still it should be a relatively straight forward vote tonight unless Sean and V start adding votes in their head.

-me

Yeah, that’s pretty much my opinion in a nutshell.:wink:

elf6c, I think we are basically in agreeance with this(I just love that Sara-ism!). I’d much rather see Gina or Hunter there as well, but it wasn’t in the cards. Ah well…

And Little Nemo, that was friggin’ hilarious!:smiley:

The reward: Robert, and he shares it with Tammy. Vee cries.
The IC: Tammy, and she gives her necklace to Robert
The boot: Tammy

Like I said, Sean and Vee are terrible players. They had their chance to both go F4 and they blew it. Ah well, at least Robert had his moment of glory, although I think he’s gone next week unless he wins immunity again. I’m still sticking by my Kathy-as-kingmaker prediction. I think she takes whichever pair she wants into F4. Events might even force her to make that decision next week, since she can still pick up a wild card vote in Robert. But I think N-P and S-V seem content to bide their time for another week, so no hurry.

Amazing that Neleh almost blabbed her way into a boot. Those people who think she’s running such a strong game may have to rethink that position a little.

Moments to savor from this week’s episode. Seeing Paschal suddenly reveal his secret identity as Aquaman, King of the Sea. Seeing Neleh make the most pathetic gift offer in Survivor history. Seeing the weakest follow-up to the previous week’s teaser (last week’s “The Survivor’s go shark hunting” leading to Kathy standing on the water’s edge with a machete). Seeing Sean wishing he had brought his Barry White albums as his luxury item while he was putting his moves on Vecepia. Seeing Robert comforting Tammy after the immunity challenge with a hug and the words, “Let’s spread some butter on you, cause darling, you’re toast.”

Little Nemo - Thank you for that wonderful bit of ice-breaking. This show, if I may be perfectly frank, is starting to grow depressing. Nice to know that someone out there isn’t taking it too seriously.

everyone - Predictions? sigh…the problem is that this show has gottn too predictable. It’s always just two people getting votes, and anyone who’s “safe” or “doomed” really isn’t. I’ve long since given up trying to make sense of this.

I mean, Richard Hatch worked his plan down to the last detail and got a well-deserved and close victory. Tina Wesson did the right things at the right time and won a thrilling, unpredictable final vote. Ethan Zohn, well, at least no one’s begrudging him the million. Of the six remaining, who can you honestly say has actually earned this?

…ah, hell. Neleh to win it all. You heard it here first. Or second. Whichever.

Screw this “who’ll go next” stuff. Let’s dish on the really good prediction.

What’s the horrifying, shocking, hopefully ratings-inducing event that we’re given a preview of?

Events during this period happened in early December, did anything newsworthy happen?

Maybe somebody stubs their toe or something?

(Watch, it’ll turn out to be truly horrific (crewperson dies, local native dies, etc) and I’ll be summarily roasted alive for making light of such a tragedy)

I think Kathy deserves the million. She has been a consistently hard-working player. She has been a target lots of times but has squeaked by. She is always in the running for the reward challenges. She’s athletic and adventurous. She’s a go getter. She doesn’t try to suck up to people (e.g. Sean serenading Vee or Zoe making cutesy bracelets) for her own advantage.

She may be a little rough around the edges, but I think her heart’s in the right place.

Go Kathy.

I have a feeling Paschal is going to do the Rodger move and sacrifice himself so that Neleh advances. Makes me wonder if Neleh is genuine.

If Robert wins immunity next week, it will be very interesting to see which member gets the boot. I’m thinking Vee, just because it was pretty apparent that Tammy and Rob voted for her this week.

Tammy was a very strong player, but like Alicia from Australia, that strength was her downfall.

I thought it was extremely funny listening to Sean complain about how lazy Neleh is. “Yeah, I’d have energy too if I just sat around all day!”

What’s up with next week’s show? The preview gave the impression that someone was injured. When everyone was standing around shocked, I didn’t notice V. What do you think? Another red herring? (Mmmm… Herring!)

Why A Duck, from what I understand, the Survivors receive notice that Vecepia’s grandmother (maybe grandfather) died on her birthday.

Pass me that barbecue sauce will ya, my left leg is getting a bit dry…