Survivor Predictions 5/19/Comments Pre-Show

So, in just a few hours, Survivor 4: Marquesas will be over, one of our four remaining:
Vecepia, Neleh, Pappy, or Kathy is going to be a millionaire.

Personally, I’d like to see Kathy in the top spot. She’s the only one who
I never would have thought could make it to the final four who is still
there, and I think she’s played a fair game.

I honestly don’t understand how things work in this little contest anymore. Used to be that you at least had to have a sound strategy to go very far. After that, it was all about making the right deals (way to go, Tina!). From that point on, it’s mostly pretty much dumb luck (Hunter, we hardly knew ye…).

Anyway, my pick is Neleh because…well, it seems like a good pick to me. And that’s all I got to say at this time.

I hate to use the word “obviously” regarding this show, but here goes:

Vecepia is out the next time she’s vulnerable. She is not going to win both immunities.

Neither Vecepia nor Neleh can win the jury’s vote against either Paschal or Kathy. P and K have both played the game, while V and N have been passive, and the mostly-Rotu jury knows it and will respect it. Since V isn’t going to make the final 2, they aren’t both going to, therefore neither can win.

So either P or K will win, and the only question is how they’d do against each other. CBS has kept too much hidden from us to make that call reliably, but based on what they’ve shown, I’d have to say the jury will pick Paschal. That’ll be based on Kathy’s having been a loner from the rest of the Rotus during their bonding days (weeks), while Paschal was one of the bunch. He’ll be able to portray his switch away from them as a strategic response to their own targeting of him after the tribal switch. And don’t forget his lawyerly powers of oral persuasion, which are clearly better than any of the other 3.

Or, Kathy or Neleh could win the final endurance challenge and pick each other, betting that the other will be more unpopular. However, that strategy has never worked in earlier games. But I’ll bet that either will pick Paschal for the finals, judging that to betray him so obviously at this point will backfire.

So the call is: Vecepia is gone next. Neleh wins the last immunity and takes her surrogate father into the finals. The winner: The Hon. Judge Paschal English of Thomaston, GA.

I really hope Kathy wins this one, but I’m thinking that Neleh does.

Acme Brain Trust is up:

They are saying Vee is the winner. I think that really sucks.

I am NOT clicking on dragongirl’s spoiler. I want to be surprised.

I guess you could make any prediction, based on who gets voted out first tonight.
Are there any more physical challenges?
When is the challenge based on question about the former teammates? When they are down to four or three? Is that is the first immunity challenge tonight?

I can see Paschal losing first tonight. He looks pretty beat, both physically and mentally. He just gave up in building his Tiki last Thursday. When he knocked it over to start again, you could tell he was just giving up.

If he goes first, then it will be just the three girls. Could go any way, in my opinion.

  1. It depends on what you consider physical :slight_smile:

  2. The former teammates challenge should be the first IC we see tonight.

  3. After the first IC, they will go from four to three. Then we should probably see the endurance
    IC, bringing us to two, and then, the final vote :slight_smile:

I am drawing a blank…comes with age, I guess. :rolleyes:
I can remember the endurance challenge from the first one; Rich, Kelly and Rudy standing on those posts with their hands on the idol, Rich ‘throwing’ it, Jeff bringing out the orange slices and water, Rudy slipping, all of it; but I cannot for the life of me remember the other two.

Anyone care to refresh my memory on the endurance challenges from Australia and Africa? Just simply, then I’m sure it will come back to me.
Thanks.

I remember the African one was pretty much the same as this years; stand on a stump, put your hand on a post, and don’t move. The final three were Kim J, Ethan, and Lex. Kim knew Ethan and Lex had an agreement to pick each other, so like Neleh she needed to win to stay in. Surprisingly, professional athlete Ethan quit fairly early. Lex and Kim hung on for several more hours but Lex finally quit. Kim then picked Ethan as her partner in the final two and lost to him in the voting.

I don’t have an exact copy of Kathy and Vecepia’s agreement at the penultimate council. Did Vecepia stay within the letter (if not the spirit) of this agreement when she subsequently made a new deal with Neleh? I think it was a telling point that Vecepia acknowledged that she was doing something wrong but figured God would forgive her after the fact. Isn’t religious belief supposed to help you avoid the temptation of doing wrong before you do it, not provide a means of making you feel better afterwards? I’d have had more respect for Vecepia and Neleh if they had just said this was a game not real life and deceit was just an acknowledged tool to use as it is in Poker or Football.

You think they could have at least waited till Kathy was out of earshot, till she walked away to go to the bathroom or something.

Breaking her deal with Kathy right away like that was pretty shitty, IMHO.
I thought the deal she made with Kathy at the TC was rather air-tight, the two of them to the end, no matter what.

That’s what I always think of. It’s a GAME. Of course there’s going to be deception. It’s part of the game. But there’s always someone who comes in and talks about how “honestly” they’ve played the game, and how they’ve never lie to anyone else. I’m not sure if anyone else realizes that, other than Richard Hatch.

Oh, my heck*, I meant to reply to this, too.
I consider myself a Christian, too, and yes, if you sin, and are truly sorry, you ask God for forgiveness, and if you are truly sorry, then your sins are forgiven.
Part of it, though, is not sinning in the first place.
It’s not a ‘Get-out-of-Jail-free’ card. You can’t just go around sinning, asking for forgiveness, and assuming you’re forgiven.
You’re supposed to avoid the temptation in the first place. You’re supposed to be able to look at something and be able to say, “That’s wrong, I won’t do it.”

  • Loosely translated as Dammit, I fucking forgot something.

I must admit I was very much surprised (not) at Sean’s speech during his final vote. The whole game he speaks that there is no bond, that there is no race card, yada yada yada, and instead of saying “You played the game the best”, it was more of a “way to go sister you did us proud, now you can loan me some cash and we can go get some chicken and waffles”. If I was V, I would take my money and move someplace where Sean is not as getting hit up for cash would get old quickly.

Agreed about Neleh. She was hot as could be until she opened her mouth. I did not stay to watch the rest of the Rosie reunion (cripes, spend time with the tribe that just finished and quit dwelling on Colby), but at least Tami was right in that the person who most deserved to win got stabbed in the back by V. Of course Pappy should have gone further, and whoever felt that he should be up for eviction when he had no votes against him (stares at Burnett) should be eviscerated. They came up with some crap rule out of the blue that should not have been there, grrrrrr.

Well, at least it was better than the X-Files finale (so I’ve heard).

Boy, that was the lamest final Survivor yet. The contests, people and set up were much worse this time around. The Central Park thing was lame. The holding over till 10:05 to reveal the winner so everyone who taped it missed finding out the winner of the least compelling final 2 in a long time. Sigh, this might have been the show to finally break my Survivor fixation.

The show needs massive changes if it is to survive itself. The long run of non-athletic “gimmick” contests made the last couple of weeks, well, boring.

Pick the purple rock OMFG are you KIDDING me!! THAT’S your great innovation in doing away with the prior votes tie-braker. Pathetic. :mad: :rolleyes:

And the winner was probably the least deserving winner yet.

At least the Simpsons was funny. . . .

-me

I liked the whole rock thing. You really do need to keep them on their toes. When Kathy was making her deal with Vee (that I still don’t fully understand all the details of), she mentioned that she would take the tie-breaker questions. Peachy then jumped in with his “what makes you sure it’s questions?” line that he must’ve been waiting weeks to say.

I wonder is this is how all of the ties would’ve been handled. During the first TC, if the vote had been 4-4, would seven yellow and one purple rocks have been used? The one thing I question is the whole unanimous decision thing. That will (should) never happen. Noone is going to fall on their sword just to save someone else from possibly being booted.

Oh yeah. While I think Rosie was much better than Bryant, I really wish they’d let the Jeff-ster co-host the reunion. He was with these people for the entire time, he should have some decent insight/observations to share. But instead it’s always a case of “Well, Jeff’s off to scout the newest Survivor locations and his plane leaves in five minutes” drill.

My favorite moments:

Jeff exchanging meaningful looks with the Statue of Liberty.
The dangling pine tree in the cab.
Jeff asking for a receipt.

All right. I’ll admit it. I’m a cranky old atheist, out of step with much of society. But I really hope they tone down the God stuff next time around. Or at least get a muslim, a pagan, a buddhist or 2, and a humanist for balance.

Tammy rocks! Great speech.

Gotta love the Sweetpea psych job on Kathy. Oops, your udder is showing. Gothca!

I would have liked to have seen more strategizing before the rock picking. Could K and V have convinced either Pappy or Neleh to drop out to ensure the other’s chance? Seems they could have tried harder.

When minty checks in, I’d like his opinion on the binding nature of K&V’s, and V&N’s agreements. Was the offer of immunity consideration? Did the potential value invoke the Statute of Frauds? It would have been a hoot to see N agree with V, and then have her kick V’s butt out.

Vecepia: must’ve been sick the day they went over that “do unto others…” part in Sunday school.

Worst. Reunion Show. Ever. Bring back Gumbel. There were no probing questions, nothing about relationships or game strategy. Just run an embarassing and/or silly clip and ask the contestant to comment. Gina and the General never spoke; and not even a closeup of Peter and Patricia.

And when Rosie asked Sean “so, how’re your balls?” television hit a new low and kept digging.

Unless I missed it, I was kinda mad Rosie didn’t bring up Hunter’s knucklehead comment or Boston Rob’s comments on everyone in his new tribe (the sausage soliloquy). I would’ve liked to see him squirm.

Vee didn’t screw Kathy at all. Kathy basically said, if you keep me on tonight, I’ll bring you to the final two. Vee had immunity, and did K a favor. Kathy did nothing for Vee, so I don’t think Vee had any further obligation to her.

Tammy rocks.

Neleh looked great (did she get a nose job, or was it just make-up?).

The rock picking summed up this whole Survivor – it was all about luck.

Yuck, yuck, yuck.

There has never been a less deserving winner that drifting-with-the-current, changing-alliances-more-often-than-underwear Vecepia. I was fully disgusted. She brings the “under the radar” approach to an all-time low. Like subterranean.

Some randon thoughts:

Come on, Sean! Do you really expect anyone to believe there was ever a chance you wouldn’t vote for Vee? That nobody realized your final question was solely designed to give you an excuse to vote for the one you were going to vote for anyway? Puh-leeze!

Tammy: Sorry, babe. Nice try, but you just don’t make the cut as Bitchiest Survivor. Jerri has you beat cold. And Susan Hawk blows you both out of the water.

Zoe: The arms! The jaw! She still scares me…

John: If I had any respect for you left after you cried to your mommy after your lame feuhrer act fell through, it evaporated last night when you whined some more and berated Neleh for actually trying to win on her own instead of meekly accepting your generous offer to boot her in 5th or 6th place. And where did you get that ridiculous haircut?

Neleh: Okay, I probably would have been annoyed with her too if I had to live with her. That miss-goody-two-shoes sunshine act must get old. But still…I liked her, dammit! She was a rock on that final challenge. She looked like she was just hanging out on the porch, while Vee and Kathy were drooping. She definitely would have won that thing, if Vee hadn’t decided to turn on her partner yet again as soon as the opportunity presented itself.

And Vecepia: Ugh. I’m not even going to get into your “Christian” ethics that allow you to betray anyone you choose, confident that God forgives you. But as for crowing about being “the first African-American woman Survivor”…big effin’ deal. We’ve had a female winner already, a gay winner, a Jewish winner…it ain’t like you struck some great blow for equal rights here. Get over yourself.

Anyway, to sum up: Worst. Final. Ever. Vee sucks, and I’m disgusted.

That is it for me. I will not watch another episode of Survivor.

Until next fall.:stuck_out_tongue: