Tonight someone will get the boot and we will see the final four.
I think that Kathy is definatly going to be in the final four, because any of the two, Sean & V or Pachel & Neleh, are going to need her vote to get rid of someone else.
I don’t really have a clue who’s going to go tonight, but I would really like to see Neleh get voted out. She’s annoying.
What do you think ?
Hey dragongirl !
Well tonight is finally one of the few votes where anything could happen. It is up to Kathy to finally make her move. The problem is that her conversation with her son showed that it not an act, she really is that dense at times.
The safest approach would be to take out Pascal or Neleh at this vote as both are the biggest threats. As Pascal is more likely to win immunity then Neleh, he is the logical target. If Kathy were logical the order would run as follows:
Finals (gag)- Kathy vs. Sean. Kathy probably wins that one, but not by much.
However, that being said, I would not be surprised if Kathy, in a fit of Colby-isk stupidity sticks with N and P gets dumped at 3.
Having the final show on Sunday night is so lame though. I am just going to have to watch X-Files and tape Survivor (better than watching 300 Snickers commercials-- I got something they can crunch on. . . . .)
-me
It appears to me that there are two pairs.
Neleh & Paschal
Sean & V
with Kathy as the odd man out.
I think Sean expressed some disdain at the assumption that because both he and V were African American, that they’d be a team of sorts. That assumption aside, I think it makes sense to say that Sean would first vote Neleh out, with Kathy next. I just think he likes V more than the rest. I don’t know how far his little vacation with Paschal will take him when it comes time to vote, though.
So that leaves, I believe, some basic options:
**1) Kathy climbs aboard with Sean and V
Kathy climbs aboard with Paschal and Neleh
Kathy gets voted off**
If Kathy goes with Sean and V, they will almost definitely vote Neleh off because Seah will probably be determined to get rid of her. That would leave Sean, V, Paschal and Kathy. Sean and V may adopt Paschal into their group because of the Sean-Pappy good-vibes trip and kick out Kathy. I think that if Kathy goes with Sean and V, she does not guarantee herself into the final 3.
If Kathy goes with Neleh and Paschal, I think that they will vote off V. Why? Because Paschal may feel badly about voting off Sean after their time together and V is so…well, she’s not anything because she doesn’t speak so it will seem harmless enough. I do not think Paschal will keep Sean over Kathy, so she may have a better shot at the final three if she sides with them.
If Kathy is voted off, then I see the final three as Sean, Paschal and Neleh. Sean is already sort of padding his ass so people don’t assume he’s with V for this reason. He then votes V off and guarantees himself in the final three.
What I think will happen…Kathy goes with P and N. They vote off V. Sean, Paschal, Neleh and Kathy go on. Sean gets voted off and Paschal, Neleh and Kathy are in the final three.
Tibs.
I’m leaning towards predicting that I will not be watching it tonight. The thought of any of these 4 winning really turns my gut. And I don’t paticularly dislike any of them more than any other. Never before have I been less interested in the outcome at this stage in the game.
Aw, hell. Who am I fooling? I’m a slave.
When predicting their actions, remember not to cut out the absolute stupidest thing they could do - whatever you can come up with. That seems to have been their strategy so far.
All right - here’s my prediction. Paschal gets immunity, and gives it to Sweetmeat.
Sean wins it all!
(Actually, I don’t see any reason to go against the backwards/Neleh clues).
I’ll go with Sean getting the boot tonight. Kathy has 2 options facing her, neither of which is obviously better. If she goes with Sean/Vee, she is aligning with people who stand a good chance of beating her in the immunity challenge she has to win to make the final 2. If she goes with Paschal/Neleh, she is physically advantaged to win immunity, but is going against someone that would seem to be better liked by the jury. All in all, I’d pick the physically weaker competitors and take my chances that the jury will be able to see liking someone else’s personality more than mine and realize I did a heck of a job to make the finals with basically no alliances.
I think Kathy will win immunity and vote with Sean and Vee to get rid of Neleh.
I’ve got to respectfully disagree with you, Mullinator. I think Kathy has a better chance to win immunity against Sean and Vee now because the later challenges have always been questions about “fallen comrades” and I think she has gotten to know the others better than Sean and Vee did. Also, Pascal is very tough! Remember seeing those muscles at work in the “move the 40 lb rock underwater challenge”?
(What Will Kathy Do?)
My analysis is identical to Tiburon’s, for the most part.
Kathy has two options. One is a relatively safe shot at going out #2. 100 grand ain’t bad. The second is riskier, and could either bag her the million, or get her booted at #4.
Option One, of course, is to stick with Neleh and Paschal. Tonight, they vote off Vee, because Pappy likes Sean. But his loyalty and integrity (such as it is) should make him stick by Kathy after that, so N/P/K go to the final 3. If the trend holds, the final immunity challenge should be of the standing-still-for-hours type, which Kathy will win. So she makes it to the final 2, but loses to whoever she takes.
Option Two, the riskier one, she allies with Sean and Vee. Now it would be great if she could convince them to get rid of Pappy first. Then she’d be guaranteed F3 in this scenario also. But not likely to happen, as Sean likes Pappy and hates Neleh. So Neleh goes. But then, she’s at risk, because Sean would rather vote her off than Pappy, so she has to win the next immunity. If not, she goes out #4. But if she does, she goes to F3, likely wins immunity (as above), and goes into the final vote against Sean (probably.) She probably wins that one.
Of course, that’s assuming she’s sharp enough to figure all that out—which I’m not assuming. She’s almost certainly not. But hey, I enjoy thinking about it…
Anyway, the smart money says Vee goes tonight.
Acme Brain Trust is up. Spoilers ahead !
Sean wins the reward challenge
Kathy wins the immunity challenge
Sean get the boot.
That’s too bad, I like Sean.
First off, would everyone get off poor Colby Donaldson’s case already?? You don’t KNOW that he would’ve beaten Keith Famie. Infer, speculate, guess what you want, but you have NO WAY of knowing this. None. Remember how everyone thought Richard Hatch was a “kingmaker” (I actually kinda like that term)? Now there was a $900,000 miscalculation for you. I think it’s very clear that Colby knew that he was probably second-best no matter what, so he gave it to the one he thought deserved it more. Nothing stupid about that. Nothing. Need I remind you that CBS is incredibly manipulative when it comes to creating “personalities”? What you see is often very different from what they get. I mean, good lord, did we learn NOTHING from Richard? So you have no way of knowing that Colby could’ve beaten Keith.
Now, assuming that that horse is finally sufficiently dead…
In all honesty, I think Kathy made the wrong choice. Never mind the fact that Sean and Vecepia were “probably” together (not like they really had much of a choice); the fact was that Neleh and Paschal were unquestionably together and completely inseparable (much like Colby & Tina, actually), and that if they made it to the final 3, she was going down in flames. Yes, yes, I know that Sean could be irritating (although I must guard against overreaction here, as this is almost certainly more CBS chicanery at work), but that’s not the point. Gamewise, he had nothing, hence, he was harmless, and eliminating him was not a priority. At any rate, she’d have a much better chance of turning Vecepia against Sean than either Paschal or Neleh against the other.
So as it stands, Kathy is in a bind. The only way she’s going to take out P or N (which she absolutely must do if she’s going to have more than a snowball’s chance of winning this thing) is if she votes with Vecepia, then prays like hell that V has enough left in the tank to win whatever tiebreaker the producers have in store. If this happens, she has a clear shot to the final.
Of course, it’s academic if she wins the final two immunity challenges, but that’s an extremely tall order…and to be honest, I think Colby, and Kelly Wigglesworth before him, were complete flukes. No one’s going to be cutting her any slack now.
Little footnote…did anyone else find the huge argument leading up to the vote a little…well, surreal? All the bickering, all the arglebargle about honesty and backstabbing and alliances etc. etc., for what basically amounted to a tiebreaker’s decision.
Well, well, well Sean’s race card thumping tirades could not have helped him. His strident disclaimers regarding V were almost amusing.
I think Kathy made the right choice- she has a much better chance of beating P and N in the standing challenge than Sean who showed himself to be much stronger in the last reward challenge. Sean’s lies to the contrary he and V were a unit (as much as he could make them one), he was not dumping V, plain and simple. Enjoy your truck, and STFU already.
DKW, no offense but there is a reason Colby is widely made fun of. He royally screwed up. Keith was even more unpopular than the producers let on until the final episode and the summary episode. Half of the people that voted for Tina would have voted for Colby (probably including Tina) if Keith was the other choice. Colby should have won with Ethan-like ease. Colby allowed himself to be fooled by Tina. Tina was rewarded for being nice, pleasant and IMHO fooling Colby so well. IMHO, Tina deserved the win for her cunning strategy. You will notice that subsequent players are quick to watch for the “Tina” move now. As far as knowing it, well we all watched the series and the summaries and the vast majority believe Colby was a good survivor, but none to bright, and was snookered by Tina.
Now to your Survivor I point, remember that turned on the moronic pick a number bit. Also Kelly was not all that well liked either, and her feud with the repugant Sue (now coming to a truckstop near you) really hurt her. Poor old Rudy, if only he did not slip off of that log. I wonder if he will be one of the “all-stars”?
Hey V, enjoy your last 3 days on the island- your next. NOW, you are going to wish that you had not backed out of the deal Sean worked with Tammy and the General. See you on the jury.
BTW- way to go Pappy. To bad it took you so long to see Sean for what he is. Calling Sean like that in front of the jury was probably a good move.
-me
I’m thinking Kathy may have made the right move.
I can imagine a lot of jurors might be ticked at May/December having been so tight for so long, that she might have a chance.
Kathy is irritating and stupid, but she has been busting her ass since day one. She sure doesn’t do much to enhance the rep of RE agents, huh?
Is anyone else surprise at what seems to be the lack of gamesmanship and maneuvering going on this time? Seems like everyone set up their limited alliances/partnerships early on, and never swayed. P/N, S/V have been paired up since the start, and seem to have been content with that. Last noght was not the first tribal council where the lack of last minute politicking was mentioned.
So - I’m still going with Neleh/backwards, but I feel Kathy is most deserving.
Good heavens, it is hard to imagine anyone less well suited to be a judge than Pappy. I’m gonna be extra careful to mind my p’s and q’s if i’m ever in Georgia!
Well, it was certainly the most enjoyable TC yet for the jurors (and us viewers). They didn’t show their reactions to that little meltdown, but I bet they enjoyed the heck out of it. I know I was chuckling.
And Sean reverts to his earlier stupidity, pretty much begging to be voted off. I honestly think it was that act which made up Kathy’s mind on who to vote for. Just when I was starting to think he wasn’t a complete asshole. Buh-bye.
I think an important strategic element in last night’s vote was the tie-breaking procedure with 4 people.
For example, let’s say Paschal got VO’d. Did Neleh and Kathy have
the power to vote out Sean or V?
Do they settle tie-breaks as before, with whoever got the most votes in previous TC’s getting voted out in case of tie? If so, what
are the tallys of votes for the last 5?
For this Survivor, previous votes don’t count, so I don’t know how they will handle a tie.
I hate Neleh! “Oh my heck”. Oh my puke. She is weak and doesn’t have a clue about playing the game, so I hope she doesn’t win.
Paschal is losing it fast. Good thing there are no rifles and bell towers on the island, he would be up there pickin’ people off.
Vecepia is a quiet threat. I wouldn’t mind a bit if she won.
Kathy seems like a strong contender. I didn’t care for her at first, but now I have more respect for her strategies.
Anyone but Neleh, please!!!
Some questions for those of you that have followed this a little more closely than I’ve been able to:
If final 2 is Paschal and Neleh, who wins?
If final 2 is Paschal and Kathy, who wins?
If final 2 is Kathy and Neleh, who wins?
If the answer to 1 is Neleh, and the answer to 2 is Paschal, then do we think Paschal will be pulling a Colby (sorry DTG ;)) if he votes off Kathy instead of Neleh (assuming he gets the chance)?
Duh, I mean DKW.
Sorry again!
I was surprised Sean knew what disingenuous meant. It would have been funny if Pappy would’ve tested him by saying something along the lines of “… and your assumption of an alliance between Neleh and me is prescient. You are very omnipotent”. “Prescient?! Well, you’re a white racist honky! And I don’t need no Viagra!” etc.
At the beginning she seemed to be always on the edge of a psychotic episode. Those eyes… The need to be in control… I thought she was scary.
Well, it’s pretty tough to say. These two are practically a unit. There’s no distinguishing them by their actions, or their alliances. Neither one has done exceptionally well in their survival skills, although Pappy has done pretty well in the challenges of late. So it really comes down to a popularity contest. Who do the jury members like best? I think it’s impossible to say, given the information we have.
But my gut says they pick Pappy.
I think most of the former Gang of Four would vote for Paschal. Robert and Tammy are not likely to think well of Kathy, who could have saved them, but didn’t. Ditto for Sean, although their falling out at the end may sway him. Neleh certainly votes for him. So I’d say Pappy wins in this scenario as well.
Similar to case 2 above, but Neleh annoyed more people than Paschal did. Sean in particular. But I still think most of the G4 dislike Kathy enough to vote against her no matter what. So I’d say Neleh wins, but it’s closer.
I guess. But there’s no way he would boot Neleh instead of Kathy, even if he knew it’d cost him the million. Anyway, if he did turn on his sweet-pea at the last minute, that could have negative repercussions as well. Tarnish his nice-guy image, and all. But he won’t do it.