Well I guess this must be the one. 
For obvious reasons, I think Robert is toast tonight unless he wins immunity. We haven’t had any real mental IC’s in a while, so I think that we’re due for one. Robert doesn’t strike me as the brightest bulb on the string, so I don’t see another IC win for him. Say goodnight, Robert.
If Robert does win IC by some miracle, the Anti-Alliance Alliance members will have to do some quick thinking, but I suspect the alternative target will end up being Neleh.
Yeah, I have to believe Robert is taking the limo home tonight.
If he does win the IC though, all bets are off. Potential targets would be Neleh, Kathy, or Sean depending on who Robert sides with.
Let’s look at the web-site previews:
**- An unexpected event brings the castaways to tears for what one castaway calls “the most emotional moment of my life.” **
The rumor here is that they hear V’s grandparent died. No real impact except maybe not voting for V for sympathy reasons.
**- A newcomer joins the tribe, but the honeymoon is short-lived when it comes time to plotting strategy. **
Not a pet, please not a pet. Probably on old Survivor castaway (Rudy? Pig-killing Mike?) there to visit for a day.
- A “young princess” becomes a new target.
So they wany us to think Neleh is going home. I think we can say for sure she won’t be.
Goodbye Robert.
The “newcomer” is surely a family member, just like Sean’s dad in I and Colby’s momma in II. And you’re also surely right that Neleh will not be kicked tonight, at least not unless Robert wins immunity.
I was going to start one, but I figured Minty would beat me by 2 minutes again 
.
I was not sure to make of tonight’s episode teasers. Wait and see I guess-- as the false spoilers have been more frequent as of late.
Predictions: Sean continues to hit on V, until her bad news, then he paws her in “condolence” seeking to retain some form of control over her. But, after last week’s disaster in failing to get Neleh it may be too little to late.
Does Sean make moves towards to Kathy and the General especially if the General gets immunity again?
When does Kathy make her move- or is she content to try and win Immunity over Pascal and Neleh in the last challenge. Even if she does, she has to be worried about a jury vote against Neleh or Pascal.
My Prediction- Neleh goes tonight- as this is the last chance for the other players (unless V remains clueless- which is a possibility).
-me
I read on another message board that the “guest” is actually a pig that is caught. The honeymoon is short lived because the tribe is conflicted about voting Robert out since he’s the one who set the trap.
I don’t know if it is true, but in Mark Burnett’s world, it makes sense.
I dunno…has V ever shown any signs of having the slightest clue? I started off liking her, but she lost a lot of my respect when she joined the Idiot Brigade and voted off Patricia. And she hasn’t regained any sice then, with her mindless drifting with the current.
But she’ll do what Sean says, and he might pull it together. Or, more likely, Kathy will spell it out for him. I think she’s sharp enough to realize she’ll have to get rid of Neleh and Paschal in order to have a shot at the million. But we’ll see…
As for tonight…obviously Robert is gone if he doesn’t win the IC. But he’s definitely got his “game face” on now, so I expect him to put up a fight. If he wins, as the Duck says, all bets are off. It will be time to decide which side of the fence you’re on, and I really can’t say what will happen. (And if it doesn’t happen tonight, it happens next week.)
Whee!
I agree, Robert is a goner tonight. It’s obvious.
Spoilers
Acme Brain Trust is up now, they say that Robert is gone, V win immunity and the guest is Kathy’s son, she wins the reward challenge.
Wow. Acme’s already up? They must have lost their feed.
Isn’t it about time for someone to win an ugly SUV?
Yeah, I think this time the winner get a Chevy Avalanche.
Considering how many Saturn VUE ads always seem to run during the show, my money’s on a VUE.
Which actually isn’t all that ugly.
Not like that first one they had, what was that? An Azteck?
Spoilers ahead !
I think it was just awful, when the family members were only there for a little while. It would have been better to have the families sent videotapes instead. It was like a big head game. It would have been cooler to let all the families stay for one night. I don’t understand why all the survivors couldn’t enjoy just one night.
I was crying. Anyone else ?
Nope. Ironically, I’m more likely to cry watching e.r. (fiction) than Survivor (psuedo-nonfiction).
Not a bad episode overall, though not a great one either. You could tell that none of the family members were playing with any strategy whatsoever during the reward challenge. Note to Sean’s friend (no family members could make it I guess), vote off the person who’s closest to blocking you in!
Kathy’s son won the challenge, and a night as a Soliantu camper! He seemed less than enthralled. By the way, you can tell that the contestant’s family members obviously don’t go through the same screening process that the contestants themselves navigate to ensure interesting television. This guy was more dull than the tribe’s dilapidated knife.
The only part that was sorta interesting was the immunity challenge. The tribal council, on the other hand, was pretty routine.
However, being the glass-is-half-full type of guy that I am, I’m looking forward to the last episodes of this season. It should be interesting.
Why do they even bother trying to have the teasers relate to the next episode? If they just threw out the vague attempts at making a connection, they could make some really great teasers:
“Next week on Survivor: Vecepia gets abducted by aliens; Paschal visits a topless bar; Kathy runs away and joins a circus; Sean gets drafted; Neleh is devoured by alligators; and the Beaver learns an important lesson.”
Anyway, I was disappointed by Kathy’s son; not the most charismatic lad I’ve ever seen. Too bad they couldn’t have used one of the Osbourne kids instead. I wish Paschal’s wife Beverly had won; seeing Paschal sweating between his wife and his “daughter” would have been fun to watch. On the other hand, I get the feeling that if Leander had won, he and Vecepia would have disappeared into the woods and we wouldn’t have seen them again for twenty four hours.
Sean’s friend Darryl was in a hopeless position when he got the wild card. He only had one or two spaces left to go to and there were several other players who were better off than him. So with no chance of winning himself, he looked to Sean for advice, got none, and made a random pick. The best he could be expected to do under the circumstances.
I was glad to see Kathy was able to avoid the temptation of making an unnecessary scheme. Some players in the past have seemed compelled to stir things up out of some apparent sense of needing to do something even if they ended up worse off than they started. Kathy’s tentative alliance with Rob would have been such a mistake.
Rob, this week, had to go. He was the biggest danger to any of the other players. The likely loyalty of his three former allies in the jury would have made him an almost unbeatable opponent in the final vote. No one could afford to ally with him and face him in the end.
Kathy will now get to choose which way she’ll go next week. She is correct in knowing that she’ll be the out one out with either pair she chooses; she will definitely have to win the final immunity challenge to stay in. She will also have to worry in two weeks. She has to make sure that the surviving member of whatever pair she votes against doesn’t win the penultimate immunity; if they do, Kathy will be voted off instead.
But other than that, Kathy’s looking strong. Her bonding with Rob this week was a smart move; the four ex-alliance members will have to vote for someone outside the alliance now and Kathy is on relatively good terms with them. If Kathy’s smart, she’ll choose to go in with Paschal or Sean; they were the two who were the most visible in creating the counter-alliance and most likely to be voted against. Kathy should just stay in the background next week and let someone else lead the charge against whoever gets voted off.
For the other four the plans are clear. Barring a seemingly unlikely backstab, the two pairs will remain solid. Which means both pairs will have to go to Kathy to be the tiebreaker. The only alternative is that the other four postpone the breakup by voting Kathy off, but that would be a stupid move. Without her as a tiebreaker, they’ll be facing a 2-2 vote the next week with the immunity making the outcome unpredictable. They’ll be better allying with Kathy and controlling the vote.
Memo to Mark Burnett: You can stop trying to make us think Neleh is on the chopping block. It didn’t work last week and it sure as hell didn’t work this week.
And where was the tragic news from last week’s teaser? Did CBS/MB finally develop a sense of decorum and decide not to try to boost ratings with people’s personal pain?
Re: Kathy’s son. I thought that was okay. It was so amusing watching this hulk talk about being a pretty boy and how he hates to get his hands dirty. It would be amusing to find out what his friends thought about his little camping trip.
That IC was kinda lame in my eyes. Those stupid sand doo-hickys must’ve taken forever to build and fill. Hardly worth the minimal drama.
I think that Kathy is in a very powerful position this week. She can choose who she wants to go with. Either way, without innunity she will be voted out 3rd place, but she’s had really good luck with winning challenges, so I think it’s very possible that she could win the last few of them.
I think she would have a much better shot at winning the game if she goes with Sean and V. if Kathy goes up to the final 2, she won’t really stand a chanch against Paschel, it’s possible that she could win against Neleh, but since the jury members don’t know how annoying she has gotton, I think she would win over Kathy.
How lame is Acme- posting the early feed like that.
On to the show- I thought Kathy had the clue in bringing in Robert now, with Sean and V. Neleh and Pascal are much bigger threats. Roberts old alliance exploded- Zoe will vote against him now. And besides- he would go at 4 anyway.
But, she is setting up a match-up with P-N (neither of which she beat) unless she votes off Neleh next week. That is the smart thing to do, which is why it will not probably happen.
Kathy’s son was quite the little powderkeg of excitement huh?
New survivor game- everytime Pappy says “family” while lustfully eyeing Neleh- drink!
What was up with Neleh’s nose-- the end of it looked huge last night.
I enjoyed Sean’s attack on Neleh at tribal counsel in front of the jury-- good move. Plus, his commentary by the waterfall was classic.
-me
Neleh wins it all.
Have you forgotten the backwards foreshadowing?
Add to that the clumsy attempts to suck us into hoping she gets voted off each week, and I think it’s pretty clear.
I know there must be a lot of stress involved in making it this far, but does Weepy Pappy strike all of you as the most stable and astute character? Is he who you would like wearing the robes deciding your fate? Quite the - um - enhanced spouse he’s got there.
Hey Rob, here’s a clue - if you want to play the game, talking to people might be a good start. Even through his final words, the guy strikes me as dumb as a post.
Yeah, Sean was definitely being a complete jerk again. I mean, Neleh’s annoying and all, but shut up already!
Kathy is definitely in the kingmaker role her, but she still has to play it exactly right to make it to the final two. Of the two pairs she’s up against, she should want to go up against either Sean or Neleh (who has drawn a remarkable amount of negative attention in the last couple weeks–and only two members of the jury haven’t seen it). If she could swing it, the best thing to do would be to go up against S&N in the final three. Neither one would take the other over Kathy, so K would be guaranteed a spot in the final two no matter who won immunity.
Problem is, it isn’t likely to work out that way. If she sides with S&V to kick Neleh next week, Pappy could still buddy up with K at the F4 vote–but that would only get you a tie, and winning that is not a situation you want to depend on. Kathty would be better off sticking with whichever pair she teams up with next week, then relying on F3 immunity to get her to F2.
So who should she vote off next week? If she plays things right, she MUST vote kick either Sean or Pappy. Even though they’re in different pairs, those two have a secondary allegiance that absolutely must be broken up. If Kathy is to make it past F4.
Sean has no desire to vote of Paschal until F3. His target is Neleh. But if Kathy aligns herself with S&V to kick off N, Paschal will happily join with S&V the next week to kick Kathy. Neleh would be a suicide vote for Kathy.
If she teams up with P&N, V would also be a bad choice, because Sean, Paschal and Neleh would surely vote out Kathy at F4. So voting for V is another very bad move.
The best move, then, would be to get S&V to go along with kicking Pappy instead of Neleh. S&V would then be guaranteed to target Neleh at the next vote, carrying Kathy all the way to F3. Alternatively, she could side with N&P to kick Sean–and the previews show Sean playing the race card that got him in trouble with Paschal before their dinner party, so I can see P again being willing to vote out S.
All things considered, though, I think Paschal is in trouble next week.
I think that Kathy & her son seemed a little bit on the too close side.