Your Survivor Predictions (4/25)- note recap episode also on tonight

Just a reminder- the recap episode with “extra, unseen footage” is on tonight. The real episode is on tomorrow night at the usual time.

Let’s put in our predictions for tomorrow night (my prediction for tonight’s recap show is that it will be boring, and unwatched by me).

Request: please do not post spoilers from the early feed “prediction” sites. Those are not predictions those are simply reports.

That said- the field is wide open, with a good deal of crow to be handed out by the rough alliance of bad players. The question is how long can they keep it together? No one wants Sean there- he is annoying and a threat. I think the rough alliance can hold it together the one more week that it needs to and Zoe gets the boot.

Overall, my Tammy prediction looks real bad now- Nelah now looks pretty good, no enemies and a devoted Pascal willing to do whatever she says- including sacrifice himself.

Outside chance that the rough alliance breaks enough that Sean goes. I doubt it though.

It is going to be really fun to watch. The original alliance was so stupid in how they handled the merge, the existance of their alliance (they are suppossed to be secret you idiots) and Pascal and Nelah. They are getting what they deserve.


I think Tammy will be gone tomorrow night. I think they were really annoyed by how cocky she acted and the others will get rid of her before Sean.

I’d guess betw Tammy or Zoe. If I had to choose, I’d say Zoe b/c Kathy is on a vendetta, and I can see the others going along just to shut that harpy up!

I think I’ll join you in not watching the “rerun” tonight.

I think Tammy is going.

Sean could be a kingmaker. If I were there, I can’t imagine anyone I’d rather go up against in the final vote. Therefore, and alliance with him might be strategically beneficial.

I can imagine a member of the now-broken alliance approaching Sean and V to form a secret sub-alliance of three (to counter Paschal, Neleh and Tammy). We’ll see.

There is a pretty interesting article over on DavidB’s site that makes the exact same argument about Sean, spoke-. Don’t worry, it’s not a spoiler, just some good analysis of the strategies for the players and their alliances. I don’t think Sean will get the chance to play kingmaker, however, since too many of the other players can’t stand him. I think he’s toast next week.

This week’s prediction is tough. N-P-K need to kick out one more the of the three remaining alliance members to shore up their own position, so I think it’s almost certain to be one of Tammy, Zoe, or Robert.

We still don’t know any context for Zoe’s split from the alliance, so it’s hard to say whether Kathy still wants her out. My guess is that she told somebody from the other side she was switching before the vote, even if it wasn’t Kathy. That switch in alleigances will probably save her this week, if not for too much longer.

That makes it a decision between Tammy and Robert. Tammy is already an immunity threat, whereas Robert hasn’t won anything. She’s also got some of John’s arrogance, so I think she’s naturally a bit more of a target than Robert. If Tammy doesn’t win immunity, I think she’ll take the walk of shame.

minty, did Zoe switch allegience? I thought the vote was 5-4 (N-P-K-S-V vs. R-T-Z-J).

If it were me, I’d vote off Robert. But that’s simply based on pure, unadulterated fear of that enormous chin.

Indeed she did, Munch. Zoe joined N-P-K-S-V in voting for John. There was no indication of the defection during the show, and it was easy to miss when they showed the votes during John’s goodby speech.

Think that’s just Zoe trying to suck up to Kathy? I don’t think it’ll matter in the long haul - unless she manages to win some serious immunity challenges.

Nice Catch ** minty green **. I did not see that Zoe backstabbed John. She must be trying to save her own skin. I doubt it will work. Another thing- I have wondered if the immunity challenge really did cause Nelah to go after John, or if that is the excuse she used to Pascal (who earlier had wanted to vote for Sean who he rightfully dislikes). Either way, the original alliance handled that reward challenge quite stupidly (get Sean out- then tank the contest, duh).

Oh boy, is Thursday’s show going to be fun. . . .

…and of course I meant the Paschal-Neleh-Kathy alliance in my earlier post.

Sean, if he’s smart, could really make hay by constantly shifting allegiance. Last week, he joined the P-N-K alliance. He should stick with that this week to knock off, say, Robert. This will have Zoe and Tammy running scared.

Then next week, Sean and V should shift into alliance with Tammy and Zoe, with the promise of breaking the P-N-K alliance, knocking off, say, Neleh.

The following week he should secretly approach Kathy, and offer to take her to the final three. She secretly agrees. Tammy and Zoe, none the wiser, join Sean and V to vote off Paschal. Kathy keeps her credibility by voting for Zoe or Tammy.

The following week, Sean, V and Kathy pick off Tammy, then the next week knock off Zoe.

Sean, V and Kathy in the final three.

If Sean were smart.

Zoe is the key now. Why did she drop out of the alliance? Obviously someone approached her before the vote and made a new deal. The question is who and what was the deal?

My guess is that Neleh and Paschal regard their alliance with Sean as being very temporary. Both of them obviously want him gone and only voted with him because they had to for their own survival. As soon as they safely can, they’ll vote against him. If they were the ones who made the deal with Zoe (which I think is most likely) then Sean will probably go this week.

The second most likely scenario was that there was a re-approachment between Kathy and Zoe. But even if so, I can’t see Zoe jumping over just for an alliance with Kathy. If this is what happened, I’d bet on a new Gang of Four with Kathy, Neleh, Paschal, and Zoe (and maybe Vecepia). Once again, Sean’s likely to be the next to fall.

If Sean does manage to hold his backing together, I see Robert as the next most likely target of that alliance. Tammy and Zoe (assuming she isn’t part of it) will be seen as less threatening in the individual challenges.

On the re-caps, this gives me a chance to raise a couple of points I didn’t post earlier. Prior to the maze immunity challenge, John was shown saying he wanted to throw the challenge in order to have an opportunity to vote Rob off. Rob guessed this might happen and made sure he led the Rotu’s to victory. I know there were three people who had to be on the team because they had sat out the previous challenge, but Rob wasn’t guaranteed the fourth spot. So given that John controlled four out of seven votes, why didn’t he use that to keep Rob off the team so he couldn’t influence the outcome?

After the Maraamu’s lost that same immunity challenge, they were faced with a difficult decision on who to vote off. It was clearly going to be Gina or Kathy and from what we saw, Neleh and Paschal genuinely liked both people. When I was watching the show, I said Gina should have tried to get herself a better chance by suggesting that Neleh and Paschal split their votes so it went to a tie. That way it would have gone to the tiebreaker quiz and Gina would have at least controlled her own destiny. Personally, I think Neleh and Paschal would have gone for this idea.

A few other points: Was it just me or did the narrator (Jeff Probst?) keep pronouncing Maraamu as Mataamu? And why, when the tribes were reshuffled, were all the contestants still shown in their original tribes in the opening credits? And why is it that this year you see large groups going to get the mail? In previous years, it was always two people. Was that a rule that was dropped or just a custom that this season’s people aren’t following?

One final idea: in the spirit of keeping everything interesting, maybe next year they could have the contestants form real alliances. After the first few days of getting to know each other, the players would be divided up into couples (either by choice or at random). From that point on, each couple would vote together, win challenges together, be voted off together, and split whatever money they ended up with.

I ended up skipping the recap episode last night- was there anything worth noting which was revealed?


So how 'bout Neleh, Paschal, Robert, Zoe? All the way to final 4, bub. That would make me some money: I bet on R & Z after Episode 1.

I believe that show is called The Amazing Race.

I’ll admit I had this idea while watching a commercial for The Amzaing Race during an episode of Survivor. But I don’t think of it as stealing. I think of it as gathering inspiration.

Before this season started, I picked Sean, based solely on the profiles put up on the Survivor site. Within 2 weeks, I felt like a moron. Now, I’m not so sure. I don’t personally like him that much but he surprised me last week. I agree that anyone would probably like to be in the final 2 with him because he has pissed so many off but right now he is one of the least likely to win. Considering Mark Burnett’s editing skills, what if he isn’t as disliked as he appears? Burnett really enjoys making it look like someone is dead meat, only to have the least likely person get the boot (Hunter anyone?). It would not shock me if Sean won the whole thing.

Of course, I still haven’t ruled out the “I’m a moron” thing yet :slight_smile:

Here’s what I posted in the MESS hall at SurvivorSucks for this week’s contest (I haven’t seen Acme Brain Trust yet):

The Real Questions

RC – Who wins (remember to name a pair)? What’s the challenge? Sean/Pappy a race over land and water
IC – Who wins? What’s the challenge? Sean stilt walking
TC – Who joins Sobbing John on the Jury? Tammy Zoe betrays her

The Fantasy Questions

Who’s safe this week? Zoe hopefully some points
Who will the bootee vote for? Zoe Tammy knows about the betrayal
Who forms the craft new strategy? Paschal he decides to let Sean lead the new alliance until he self-destructs
Will God strike Vee down? Nah He deserves the praise.

Isn’t it about time for a food auction RC? (Robert pays $500 for a cheeseburger and a beer; Neleh pays $350 for a chocolate milkshake; Paschal plays it smart, waits until the end, and gets a turkey dinner for $100…much puking ensues…)

The frame-by-frame analysis of the vidcaps seems to indicate at least some swimming, and a portion of the threads that hang from Sean’s shorts appears to be visible in a shot of the dancers.