Survivor Season 30 (spoilers)

The women on that tribe are not nearly as asshole-ish as the guys. And I think they would vote as block against one of the guys. which one? No idea. They are each nominated.

Agreed. I’m not sure if the women on the tribe have been asshole-ish at all.

Loved the “Who made that fire? Your God?” line, but even better was the confessional with him being a pouty little crybaby afterward.

She kind of reminds me of Jenna Lewis.

My favorite part of the Blue Collar tribe arguing was when Mike and Rodney were going at it, and Mike said something to the effect of “everyone else here is being quiet but you know they agree with me” which was the complete opposite of the actual case. Heh.

But yeah, only one challenge per episode… ugh. Somewhere in the morass of all the inter-tribe bickering to start the episode I just moaned “get to the challenge already!”

No surprises. They weakened themselves by voting off a strong challenger, then handicapped themselves further (pardon the pun) by telling the deaf player to “run ahead” and voila! they’re back at Tribal Council!

I forgot to say this… I still think that, normally, voting out Vince was the right move. While he was a strong guy, a lot of challenges in this game don’t really require brute strength… there’s often stuff like “untie the knots” or “solve the puzzle” or “navigate the obstacle course” so losing a ‘strong’ guy isn’t necessarily a killer. I think the No Collar tribe just got a bit unlucky in that the challenge right after they voted out Vince did indeed require physical strength.

While that’s true, there’s no reason why a guy with physical strength cant also solve puzzles, and nowadays they seem to be going for multi-part challenges that require strength, agility *and *brains.

yeah but we’re talking about Vince - creepy close standing, crazy eyed Vince.

If no one on the tribe can sleep because crazy is right beside them no one is going to do well on challenges. Getting rid of Vince was the right choice - leaving Nina out of the challenge was an odd choice.

It was odd to the point of being stupid. Jeff asked them why they did that and they answered but the answer made no sense to me. I just thought it was a very stupid thing to do and it cost them. They lost the challenge and they lost a tribe member. Can anyone state any kind of sensible reason why they would do that?

I see people making a big deal out of them losing a tribe member. But if they always “sit someone out” to even up the numbers in a challenge, how is it a disadvantage to lose a tribe member? I know that it’s supposed to be a disadvantage but I can’t recall how it is a disadvantage. Why is it a disadvantage to lose a tribe member? Is the only reason that when they merge, the people in the larger tribes have a better shot of winning the million dollars? If so, I’d love to see the stats on that and see if it’s true.

When the merge is made, how often does the winner of the million dollars come from the largest tribe?

Yeah, when you get to the merge, if your tribe is down in numbers, you can just get picked off one by one.

What so many players seem to forget is, the same thing happens if you get to the merge with good numbers, but two of your tribe members are pissed off and immediately flip to the other tribe. So many players forget that it’s a social game.

I agree.

When Jeff keeps harping on, “Outwit, Outplay, Outlast”, I think he’s trying to convey the message that it is composed of three equal parts - Social, Physical and Mental. Or maybe I have that wrong?

But I believe it is more social than any of the other two parts. It’s an interesting question. But I would guess the social part is very much more important than the other two.

I think Jeff is going crazy. Seems to me he wants the whole world to believe that Survivor is the greatest, most important, most vital … yaketty, yaketty, yak. But that is a different question.

The question I’d like to ask right now is just how important the numbers of people in a tribe are.

We saw one tribe pick off the other in the first season and the concept of “Pagonging” was born. But how often has it happened in the 28 subsequent seasons? My guess is that it hasn’t happened all that often. In other words, the social aspect is far more important than the numbers game - but that is just my guess.

It sounds to me like it might be your guess as well?

I’d really love to see someone do the research and tell us just how often the tribe with the most members has a serious advantage after the merge. How often does the person who wins the million dollars come from the tribe with the greatest number of players? I don’t believe it is an automatic thing or a “given”. Not at all. But I don’t know how to figure that out. Either that or I’m just too lazy.

What do you think?

Other have explained about “Pagonging” but note that yes, altho it’s true you sit one team member out- you get to choose. Bring in the muscle for one challenge, the brains for another.

I haven’t checked lately, but I bet Wikipedia contains everything you need. The people who update reality shows on Wiki tend to get really anal about this stuff…for every season you can probably find who was voted out each week, which tribe they were from, and when the merge happened. There haven’t been that many seasons that you can’t compile what you need, just by reading Wikipedia for a few hours.

Have fun, and let us know what you find! :slight_smile:

Good point. Very good indeed!


Well, OK. I’m gonna try to analyze the stastistics even though I can’t spell that word and I can’t pronounce it either.

I will try to write up some notes so you all can see how I’m gonna screw it up. Then maybe one of you will be able to do it properly.

I’ll be back later. Hopefully, not too soon.

As I said upthread, I watched parts of the first four of five seasons and not again until this one. I have a recollection that in one of those early season that a tribe purposefully blew a challenge to get rid of someone that they really hated.

Anyway, besides immunity, you get prizes for winning the challenges like fire making kits or those beach chairs. In addition, you want to strive to win because the person who might be voted off is YOU.

Good lead. Very good indeed.

OK. I’ll be back. I’m really going now. Honest I am.

Two **excellent **points!

Most excellent indeed!

OK. I’m out of here now. For real!

OK. I will try to provide links to each Wikipedia season. In Season 2, it looks like the merge happened after six boots and three members of each tribe were booted before the merge. So no one tribe could have any advantage after the merge. I will post this one season so that if I’m making a big mistake, someone can point it out so that I don’t do 28 seasons and keep making the same mistake. But I won’t post after each season.
S2: Survivor: The Australian Outback - Wikipedia

If I remember Jewelry Maker Guy’s answer, they told her to run on ahead to the other side of the barrier so she’d be free to help them get the barrel across the barrier. He also said that he didn’t want her trying to help them carry the barrel through the lattice, because she probably would have fallen. He was wrong on pretty much all points; people have gotten voted out for far less.

If you have 3 generally good challenge competitors, one swimmer who can’t run, one runner who can’t swim, and a sixth who’s great at puzzles but nothing else, you can sit out the one who sucks for this particular challenge. If you only have five people and you don’t get to sit somebody out, you have to play the game with the cards you’re dealt.

Just checking in after Season 5 so you can see how I’m doing this and let me know if I’m making any errors.

S2: Survivor: The Australian Outback - Wikipedia

OK. I will try to provide links to each Wikipedia season. In Season 2, it looks like the merge happened after six boots and three members of each tribe were booted before the merge. So no one tribe could have any advantage after the merge. I will post this one season so that if I’m making a big mistake, someone can point it out so that I don’t do 28 seasons and keep making the same mistake. But I won’t post after each season.

S3: Survivor: Africa - Wikipedia

Looks like in S3 two Borans and four Samburu were booted giving Boran a 4-2 advantage. Ehan Zohn won and he was a Boran. So the tribe with the most members won. The running total is now 1-0-1. That means starting with S2, the winner of the million dollars came from the tribe with most members once and it was a tie once. The total number of players booted from both seasons before the merge was: 7-5.

S4: Survivor: Marquesas - Wikipedia

Before the merge, 5 Maraamu and 1 Rotu were booted. The winner was Vecepia from Maraamu. So, the running total is now 1-1-1 and the player totals was: 8-10 (the smaller tribe has the lead now)

S5: Survivor: Thailand - Wikipedia

Before the merge, 3 Chuay Gahn and 5 Sook Jai were booted. The winner was Brian Heidik from Chuay Gahn. So, Running total is now 1-2-1. Player totals is: 11-15. Yikes! It’s harder to keep these totals straight than it ought to be.