The 2019 Road to the Oscars thread

Cafe Society
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Well, some of the major guild weighed in over the weekend.

1917 won the Producers Guild award for Best Picture, which cements it as a significant front-runner, though by no means a foregone conclusion.

The SAG awards went largely as expected, with front-runners (and Globe winners) Phoenix, Zellweger, Pitt & Dern taking the individual acting categories. Half the time, the 4 SAG winners repeat at the Oscars but the other half, one of the four gets replaced by an alternative at the Academy. Zellweger seems the most vulnerable in my book, but her speech at SAG was sweet and ingratiating (and very different from the one at the Globes).

But the big takeaway at SAG was the Ensemble award, which went to Parasite, the first time that award has ever gone to a Foreign Language picture (and notable given its considerable competition, many fellow Best Picture nominees). The acting branch is the largest at AMPAS and this kind of support is not to be underestimated, though it still should be seen as a Dark Horse since no Foreign Language Film has ever taken the top prize with the Academy (though last year’s Roma probably came the closest).

Next–the Directors and Writers guilds and then the Oscars themselves, right around the corner: T-19 days and counting.

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We saw **1917 **yesterday (6 down, 3 to go). Not sure if it’s the best film, or my favorite film, but it’s sure a darn good film. The scene – featured in the trailer – of our protagonist sprinting along the trench as the soldiers go over the top, is much much more effective in context, with music. I was totally verklempt.

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Well, the DGA awards were over the weekend and Sam Mendes won for 1917. This is big because the DGAs have the single best record for predicting winners. In the last 20 years (when Mendes won his American Beauty Oscar), the number of DGA winners that did not go on to win the Best Director Oscar are three:

Ang Lee, CROUCHING TIGER HIDDEN DRAGON (which won Foreign Film but lost Director to TRAFFIC/Soderbergh)
Rob Marshall, CHICAGO (which won Best Picture but lost Director to THE PIANIST/Polanski)
Ben Affleck, ARGO (which won Best Picture but Affleck wasn’t nominated for Director)

So even on the off-chance that Mendes loses director, it still seems fairly safe that 1917 will win Picture, especially with the PGA win too.

Other awards I think it has an excellent chance of winning:

Cinematography
Sound Mixing
Sound Editing

That puts it at 4-5 minimum, a tally I don’t see any other film being able to reach. So I think it will walk away with the most awards, even if there are some surprises in store.

Voting begins this week, the Writers Guild is this coming weekend and the ceremony is the weekend after that (Feb. 9).

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If it isn’t presumptuous, I thought I’d use this thread for some additional categories. The bundled nominees for animated, live, and documentary short subjects were released to theaters this week, so everyone has a chance to see them and weigh in. For the record, the nominees are:

Best Animated Short:
“Dcera,” Czech Republic
“Hair Love,” USA
“Kitbull,” USA
“Memorable,”France
“Sister,” China/USA

Best Live Action Short Film:
“Brotherhood,” Tunisia
“Nefta Football Club,” Tunisia/France
“The Neighbors’ Window,” USA
“Saria,” USA
“A Sister,” Belgium

**Best Documentary Short Subject:
**“In the Absence,” Korea
“Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone,” USA
“Life Overtakes Me,” USA
“St. Louis Superman,” USA
“Walk Run Cha-Cha,” USA

I saw the animated and live action bundles today. I may not get to the documentaries by the Oscars, but I’ll try.

The live action and animated entries contain a lot more downbeat films than I was expecting (especially the animated clips).

In the animated group, my reluctant favorite was Kitbull, which is the Disney/Pixar entry, and is probably the favorite to win. Based on the audience reaction in the theater, Hair Love and Memorable may be dark horse contenders, I like Hair Love a lot, but was lukewarm on Memorable (yeah, yeah, it’s hell getting old, but do we have to have one of these at every Oscars?).

Among the live action shorts, I liked A Sister and The Neighbors’ Window the most. A Sister is reminiscent of last year’s Mother, which didn’t win, so I’m going to put my money on The Neighbors’ Window, which definitely hits you in the feels, but is peppered with humor. Of the others, Brotherhood and Saria are just relentlessly downbeat and Nefta Football Club is, in the end, just a shaggy dog story.

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Well, the BAFTAs happened over the weekend and the top prizes appear to be more locked than ever:

1917/Mendes
Phoenix/Zellweger/Pitt/Dern

The biggest surprise was that the screenplay winners (Original: PARASITE; Adapted: JOJO RABBIT) mirrored the WGA wins, which also happened over the weekend.

So while I think Greta Gerwig still has an outside chance for Adapted for LITTLE WOMEN, Bong Joon Ho is the hands-down favorite in Original and any other winner would be considered an upset (though QT shouldn’t be completely counted out).

KLAUS won Animated Feature, which means there is no front-runner there, but considering that the non-Disney alternatives aren’t finding any consensus, it wouldn’t surprise me if Woody & Buzz pull off another win (even though this category has a notorious track record of rejecting sequels).

Going into this weekend, the writing on the wall suggests that:

  • 1917 will probably win the most awards even if it doesn’t sweep Pic/Director
  • PARASITE is likely to win something more than just International Feature
  • It should surprise no one if THE IRISHMAN gets completely shut out, 0-for-10.
  • Despite having the most nominations, JOKER’s victory total is unlikely to exceed 3.
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I suspect perhaps Bong Joon-ho wins Best Director since he has a lot of great movies behind him, but Parasite fails to win Best Picture even though it is the best of the nominated movies.

I think there is a real chance Parasite pulls off a Best Picture win, but I agree it is unlikely.

“If not now, when?” is becoming kind of a motto for Parasite winning.

I agree with the headline, “The Oscars Need Parasite more than Parasite Needs The Oscars.”

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Thanks for this! (though I didn’t read it out of fear of even mild spoilers–I’ll be seeing all 3 collections of shorts before the ceremony).

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I try to avoid specific spoilers in threads like this, but after rereading my post, I guess if you read my comments before going to the theater, you’d know more about the general mood/theme of the short from the start, which can take away from fully enjoying the short. So you were probably right to avoid at least the last two paragraphs of the post.

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Is Hollywood biased against Netflix and its movies? I’m just a moviegoer and I am, partly because they don’t make it easy to see their movies in theaters.

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My main problem with A SISTER is that while it was well-executed, it was essentially a rehash of the domestic nightmare scenario that has been a recurring theme for the last decade in this category (and nowhere near as good as the brilliant JUST BEFORE LOSING EVERYTHING). It was definitely better than last year’s MOTHER though (which was little more than a premise).

THE NEIGHBORS’ WINDOW was very touching, but felt too schematic to me, and you nailed my issue with NEFTA exactly (though it was nice having something funny in the mix). And SARIA had some really remarkable moments but I felt it was too hogtied to its “Based-on-a-True-Story” finale.

I thought BROTHERHOOD was the best of the bunch, because it gives its characters a chance to breathe and to allow the tensions unfold gradually while also allowing a more meditative look at the life around the family. Also, the finale may be downbeat, but its rooted in a character’s failings rather than something more systemic or institutional. In short, we hold responsibility for the world we create and the weight of this realization by the main character is the most poignant moment in any of the films.

But the real miracle is that while they all may not be perfect, none of them genuinely suck either (and I can’t remember the last time I could say that in this category; the past has been riddled with stinkers, many of which walked away with the top prize). So facing a slate of films where it wouldn’t be a disaster if any of them won, that alone is a huge relief.

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Saw the other shorts so for Documentaries, I’d rank them:

  1. Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (if You’re a Girl)
  2. St. Louis Superman
  3. Life Overtakes Me
  4. In the Absence
  5. Walk Run Cha-Cha

I wouldn’t have a problem if 1-3 won, though the collective outrage over the tragedy in ABSENCE might put it over the top (I’m predicting SKATEBOARD). And yes, that horrific tale of corruption is staggering in the cruelty, incompetence, and loss. But the filmmaking itself isn’t that special, imho (mostly compiling found footage seasoned with a few interviews).

As for animated shorts, my ranking would be:

  1. Daughter
  2. Hair Love
  3. Kitbull
  4. Memorable
  5. Sister

I think the Czech film is leaps and bounds over the others, but 2-3 are both exceedingly charming and old school in its cel animation craftsmanship so I’d be fine with either. As for #4, I’ll admit to being a bit jaded because the meme of memory loss and the onset of dementia is a trope that’s so common in animated shorts (I see a lot of them on the circuit and in festivals) that it felt all too familiar, even if the stop-motion design (w/some obvious digital assists) was well done–though not as good as the stop-motion and visual intimacy of DAUGHTER.

As for last night’s Spirit Awards, because there was so little overlap with the Oscar nominees, they didn’t provide much insight into things. Zellweger was the only front-runner who was eligible (she won) and the screenplay for MARRIAGE STORY (which also won) was not up against any of its competition tonight (Baumbach even joked that he was glad he wasn’t up against PARASITE in that category). PARASITE won, of course, but was only competing in the International category.

But it was nice to see THE LIGHTHOUSE win two (which is more wins than it has nominations tonight) and while UNCUT GEMS got plenty of love (Director, Actor, Editing), I’m incredibly glad Best Picture went to THE FAREWELL–for my money, the single most egregious example of a worthy film being completely shut out by the Academy this year (it also won Supporting Actress).

Onward to tonight!

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Kitbull should be best animated short winner

I saw all Best Picture nominees and here’s my take
First tier (any of these should win): Jojo Rabbit (personal choice), Joker, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Second tier (great movies but not Best Picture): Ford vs Ferrari (too formulaic and changed important facts for Hollywoodness), Parasite (good but just not top tier), 1917 (too formulaic, Is it true German solders couldn’t hit anyone 5 feet away?)
Third tier: A Marriage Story (Kramer vs Kramer in 2020), The Irishman (*Casino *meets Goodfellas), Little Women (everyone was so unlikable except Chris Copper and Bob Odenkirk)

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It’s a cold and rainy road to the Oscars this year. Yesterday was sunshine and low 70’s. Today is low 60’s and showers. It’s still time to stake my picks.

My picks for the majors:

Best Picture:
Will Win: “1917”
Should Win: “Parasite”
Parasite is simply the best motion picture on this list, though if Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Little Women, or Marriage Story won I wouldn’t shed tears of frustration and rage. Joker is a great performance, but not a great movie. Jojo Rabbit, while it isn’t Life is Beautiful for the 2020’s, doesn’t fully reconcile its dramatic and comedic sides. 1917 is a well made movie, but it isn’t even the most exciting, authentic movie about World War I in the last couple of years. On a side note, if you ask me which of these films will be the most streamed/watched 10 years from now, my money would be on* Little Women*.

Director:
Will Win: Sam Mendes, “1917”
Should Win: Bong Joon Ho, “Parasite”
This is a mixed bag. Joker is elevated more by a monumental performance than directing, Scorsese’s film has his own track record to deal with and it is not going to be in his top 5 when all is said and done. I wouldn’t mind if Tarantino won, it’s an Oscar worthy film and one of his best. Mendes demonstrates meticulous planning and editing, but, well, see above.

Lead Actor:
Will Win: Joaquin Phoenix, “Joker”
Should Win: Joaquin Phoenix, “Joker”
The only nominee whose win would cause me to go WTF?, is Pryce, which is not to say it is a bad performance, but it is nothing that stretches the performer or the picture. Any of the others is IMHO Oscar worthy, but the performance by Phoenix is Joker and is a primary reason it is such a box office juggernaut.

Lead Actress:
Will Win: Renee Zellweger, “Judy”
Should Win:Scarlett Johansson, “Marriage Story”
I would not mind it if Ronan or Theron won, but I don’t assign weight to a performance that is “an amazing copy” of a very famous person. Zellweger is a very good actress and any good performer can come up with an amazing copy of someone who is well documented, I did not see Harriet, but if Erivo wins, it will be the upset of the decade.

Supporting Actor:
Will Win: Brad Pitt, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Should Win: Brad Pitt, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
I would be a bit verklempt if Pesci wins, and his performance was certainly Oscar worthy (plus it is one of the few performances that is a true supporting role, not a co-star role). Hanks, Hopkins, and Pacino gave top notch performances, but did not, IMHO, push the envelope is a way that distinguished them

Supporting Actress:
Will Win:Laura Dern, “Marriage Story”
Should Win: Laura Dern, “Marriage Story”
It’s Dern’s year. Of the others, all but Bates is, IMHO, Oscar worthy and wouldn’t cause me heartburn if they won. Bates’ performance was another that perfectly fit the film, but did not elevate the character or the film sufficiently.

Adapted Screenplay:
Will Win: “Jojo Rabbit,” Taika Waititi
Should Win: “Little Women,” Greta Gerwig
Though I could see this category being a sort of consolation prize for The Irishman.

Original Screenplay:
Will Win: “Parasite,” Bong Joon Ho, Jin Won Han
Should Win: “Parasite,” Bong Joon Ho, Jin Won Han
Though frankly only a win by 1917 would truly disappoint me,

Best International Feature Film:
Will Win: “Parasite,” Bong Joon Ho
Should Win: “Parasite,” Bong Joon Ho
No contest here.

ETA: Shorts: If you are betting, bet Brotherhood (Live), Kitbull (Animated), In the Absence (Documentary)

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Well now peccavi, looks like all you missed were Picture and Director. Parasite for the win!

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I don’t think Parasite was the best movie of the year, but it was the best of the nominated movies.

I’m happy that something actually interesting won.

76

The only thing that truly befuddled me was Renee Zellweger getting the nod as Best Actress over Cynthia Erivo who dominated the screen as “Harriet”.

77

parasite is on Amazon now for rental and purchase

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And my two misses were Should Wins, so I’m not that unhappy about missing my predictions.

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“Parasite” was a strange movie with unremarkable acting, but it had a significant message. Hollywood decided it was time for a foreign film to win the award, and that was certainly as good a choice as any.

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To be honest, I think it’s a little unfair for Parasite to win both best picture and best international picture; if they were voting for it for one, they should have left the other for a different movie. But I am glad that Netflix was almost completely shut out (aside from Laura Dern, who by all accounts deserved it), despite spending what I heard was $70 million on its Oscar campaign.