The Donald Trump 2024 Campaign Thread (Primary Edition)

“Look folks, I’m a successful businessman, I’m a multithousandaire!”

Reading between the lines of press reports, the Democrats are planning to keep TFG’s tax returns a secret from people like me.

Maybe someone will leak the returns, but I’m thinking it will be years before that happens.

As to what should happen, ideally, high government officials should have their returns released, on the web, automatically. But congressional Democrats may be wise, from a purely political standpoint, to avoid fueling DJT’s victim narrative.

Naw. In 10 days, no one will give a shit as we will be three major controversies past.

Also, the victim narrative is already fueled by an inexhaustible stream of bullshit. This will only modify the flavor for about 3 days.

Didn’t we already get his tax returns like three years ago? I distinctly remember the front page of the New York Times mentioning something like he paid $700 (not even a thousand!) one year or something.

Did I dream that?

Those were older.

I’m missing why the Democrats wanted his returns when they all along expected to keep them secret.

I suppose the idea was that they would only keep them secret if honestly done. But we already I know that Trump’s approach to taxes approaches, and then crosses, lines — which is why he gets audited every year, and more vigorously than other real or supposed billionaires. And selectively releasing just the scuzzy parts would have all the political disadvantages of releasing the whole file.

Well, the new crimes are overshadowing the old crimes, that is true. It’s akin to getting that one piece of evidence needed to pull Charles Manson in for nabbing a purse a few months back, this evidence coming in just as you’re watching him being booked for the Tate-Labianca murders on Cronkite.

For America’s #1 political kingmaker (this is sarcasm), a man who has directed the political orientation of America for the better part of a decade, this campaign is pretty damn low energy right now. He’s not even campaigning with, or for, Herschel. This Kanye controversy has not helped him (though if he were smart, he would use the Hitler remarks in a statement denouncing anti-semitism and reminding everyone that he DID yell at Kanye during the dinner (Note: Trump isn’t this smart, otherwise it would have been done already. Time will tell.)) No one is rushing to his side. People just assume MTG will be his VP because, of course she will, but really, no one cares.

(And he hasn’t had a lot of luck in the courtroom lately. I saw that the NY trial is going to closing arguments soon, so that one may get hot, soon. The special master was dismissed. His filings are getting mocked. The Supreme Court has gotten what they needed from him, and they’re not interested in destroying the system that got them where they are.)

Anyway, he’s a curious front-runner. Extremely damaged goods, unelectable, yet his hold over 40-60% of the Republican electorate makes him both a target of opportunity and an object of fear in the GOP. I mean, he can’t play the role of Adlai Stevenson (1956), who you just throw out there (again) against an unbeatable Eisenhower because Adlai didn’t spend the '56 election raging against the Democratic machine. Trump won’t pull governors across the ticket, he doesn’t have down-ballot appeal (look at the Walker tally in GA compared to Kemp’s), hell the Republicans have a good chance of retaking the Senate… but if Trump is the candidate, even that is in doubt.

He’s also boring. Yesterday’s news. Only exciting to the cult.

2024 Trump may be a more hated front-runner than 2016 Hillary. In fact, I don’t think there is any doubt.

This is kinda like 1912? Teddy Roosevelt was more popular than Trump, but he was (like DJT) full of ego and (again) didn’t give a bit of concern if he was hurting the party which helped him win the Presidency. But then, Democrats in 1912 didn’t hate TR the way Democrats in 2022 hate Trump (and will hate him in 2024).

Right now I put his odds of being the Republican nominee at about 65% If indicted, 70%.

Helpful post.
What did you mean by this last part? That perceived martyrdom would boost his standing among some GOP primary voters?

Kind of kidding on the square. I probably should have said “on the ballot” instead of “Republican nominee” because that’s more likely. If indicted, Trump will double-down on his efforts to be President in 2025 - it will be his only chance to avoid prison. And he won’t care if he’s doing it as a Republican or as a Freedom Party candidate or the Green Party or the Libertarian Party or whatever.

I can definitely see the LP jump at the chance to have Trump as their 2024 nominee. Easily see this. Since they have ballot access in all fifty states (I’m pretty sure), they’re the obvious 2nd choice for him, and he might be able to have some small down-ballot success for the LP. He definitely won’t do this for the Republicans.

This is the kind of thing his aides would recommend to him in 2016, and he’d refuse to do, and it didn’t hurt him. If he didn’t have to walk back insulting a gold star mother, I don’t know why he has to walk back Ye and company.

Maybe, but he might pick someone easier to humiliate. J.D. Vance?

Real Clear Politics has Biden ahead of Trump 0.1 percent in the popular vote as I write this. Maybe that site has a bit of a GOP bias, but so does the electoral college.

He has lost 6 of 7 elections he has been involved in either directly or as an election topic, 7 of 8 if you count his 2000 “run”. RCP can say whatever they want to say in order to get clicks, the man is unelectable.

Exactly. I have a feeling if Hitler and Jeffrey Epstein were still around, Trump would have been having dinner with them instead.

Again, he has already walked it back with a typical “I didn’t know who he (Fuentes) was” statement a few days ago. So there’s no question about “if”.

Well, that would be a good thing (assuming Trump loses), since it would take MTG out of Congress.

Wishful thinking, just like the idea that DJT can’t beat Biden when polls show them near-tied.

Trump isn’t a loyal Republican, but he is loyal to the idea of getting rid of Biden. DJT would look on a GOP Attorney General as a step in the right direction and unlikely to retry after a hung jury.

If I were a betting man, I might be inclined towards putting better odds on the defeated (but unbowed, in a vote-denying sort of way) Kari Lake. She’s on the same wavelength while being available and probably very slightly more palatable than MTG to a wider audience ( very slightly).

Well he hasn’t shown that he can.

Alas, she can run for both offices at the same time. Paul Ryan did this when he was Romney’s running mate.

That’s who I’ve assumed would be Trump’s running mate since the midterms. I almost posted the thought a couple times but couldn’t recall her name and didn’t want to bother googling.

I kind of don’t like searching conservative names because I don’t want to give algorithms any ideas. But mostly it was laziness.

I can’t see Donnie pairing himself with an attractive woman who is also an attention-seeking, spotlight hog. She would want her share of headlines, and that’s a no-go. He will want a bland, nondescript white guy. IOW another Mike Pence.

I hope we don’t find out the answer to this question.