The Donald Trump 2024 Campaign Thread (Primary Edition)

I can’t find any mention of Trump on AP’s front page. Nuthin’.

Considering he’s only about four feet tall, I doubt DeSantis will be down with anything involving standing next to Trump a lot.

So, since this is a thread about the Trump primary, let’s discuss the person who would be most likely to defeat him and get the nomination. I’m thinking it would be DeSantis or Pence.

Pence is pretty drab, but what he has going for him is his refusal to overthrow our nation’s newly elected government at the behest of Trump, our wanna-be dictator. If the mid-terms are truly a sign that people are standing up for democracy, then he has a powerful tool.

liz cheney may have a go at getting the nomination. she is very determined to keep a certain individual one out of the white house or any elected office. she will have a bit of time to devote to this in january 2023.

They’re both from Florida, so that wouldn’t work. (there are ways to finesse that, but one of them, presumably Trump, would have to start working on changing residences)

I don’t think Trump would stand for a DeSantis/Trump ticket.

Honestly, I think DeSantis and the so-called “saner” wing of the GOP are just waiting to see what happens when DOJ charges Trump. What will they charge him with? Will they take him into custody? If he’s granted bail (and he probably will be), what will be the conditions of that release? Gag order? How will his supporters react?

Once it happens, DeSantis and others (Pence, Pompeo, Hogan, DeWine, et. al) will have a better idea of which way to jump. And jump they will.

Who’s his base, though?

A moderate Republican is someone who wants to hang Mike Pence, but gently.

“peacefully and patriotically”

A donald trump quote from that article (emphasis mine):

“Our country needs a truly great leader, and we need a truly great leader now. We need a leader that wrote ‘The Art of the Deal.’"

We need a leader like Tony Schwartz, journalist who regrets having ghost-written ‘The Art of the Deal’, and is now very strongly and publicly critical of trump?

Eh, I guess we could do worse.

Since it’s Trump, there is no doubt some cherry picking of numbers, and probably using the results before many elections were called (note he reported losses, not wins, so undetermined races count in his corner) but this number isn’t grossly out of whack with reality. Trump’s endorsement strategy was built around picking winners. So he endorsed just about every Republican candidate who had an easy win, and none who were underdog challengers with little chance even if they matched his agenda.

I don’t think DeSantis would be able to do nothing whatsoever for 4 years except gaze adoringly at Trump.

If I learned one thing from Dr Pimplepopper is that it’s not enough to squeeze out the abcess, you also have to remove the lining else it will come back. trump came back more purulent than ever.

I laugh every time I see a Pence run suggested. I can’t think of someone more widely despised by both sides.

He’s as delusional as Cruz.

I watched part of his interview with David Muir the other night. It was a classic case of trying to have his cake and eat it, too.

He wants his cake, and your cake. And if he does not get it, he’ll send some goons to steal your cake.

I think you’re on target here, and unless something happens to change things (which given that primary season is about a year and a half away is almost guaranteed), I think DeSantis could pull off a win for several reasons.

  1. Even though Trump is ahead of DeSantis in the polls, but he is steadily declining while DeSantis is on the rise., and this was true even before the current eleciton results.
  2. As Governor DeSantis has the power to actually do things to push the right wing agenda, while all Trump can do is try to pump up his previous accomplishments, and make new promises
  3. Trumps main campaign strategy has generally revolved around trash talking his opponent, and this has worked for him by and large because his supporters hate the same people he does. But Conservatives actually like DeSantis, so rather than sticking it to the RINO deep state libs, Trump attacks may be seen as unfounded smear tactics on a great man.
  1. I can’t believe the leopards are eating DeSantis’ face!

Also, in 2016 Trump was up against lots of people splitting the Not-Trump vote in the primaries — each of them maybe holding back and hoping to pick up the pieces if another guy would directly attack Trump and maybe harm his own chances as well as Trump’s.

It could be wildly different if Trump is only up against one guy or two guys from the start — each of whom already saw how things went the last time.

A smart RNC (you might have to use a lot of imagination to get there) would do their best to limit the primary field to just a couple candidates if it’s in their power to do so. Vote splitting is going to be Trumpty Dumpty’s friend, since the lunatic fringe of the Republican party is about 35-40%. If he’s up against half a dozen other candidates sharing slices of the saner (use that imagination again!) Republican votes he’ll come out ahead as it stands now. But a lot can happen in 18 months…