If DeSantis runs in the primary, he’s going to have to face the fact that the remaining Republicans are his target; he can’t think ahead to the general election. The remaining R’s don’t want policy statements. They don’t want statesmanship. They don’t want ideas, direction or plans.
They want a show. They want simple slogans, insults and amusing nicknames. This is what will motivate the Republican primary voter.
He’ll need to come up with a simplistic slogan. One that demonstrates he hates the same people they do (keeping it general enough so that the hated out-group exists in the mind of the hater). He’ll need to come up with a couple of nicknames for Trump, and use them over and over and over again. “Loser Donnie” or “You’re fired Donnie”
He’ll need to show that he’s a bigger bully than Trump. That is what the remaining R voters will respond to.
In other words, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast, this likely won’t be a “red-wave” election like 2010 (when Republicans picked up 63 House seats) or 2014 (when Republicans picked up nine Senate seats). Instead, it’s looking like more of a “red ripple.”
My prediction (and feel free to mock me in a year if I’m wrong): Trump not only doesn’t win the nomination, he doesn’t even make it to 2024. By primary season, he’ll have been indicted on multiple federal charges and perhaps in both NY and Georgia. Fox will be completely ignoring him and doing everything they can to sway his supporters to DeSantis. If he’s even still free, he’ll be nothing but a desperate old man speaking to half-empty community halls and running out of suckers to grift. He’s over.
I agree with you. But it will still depend on what Fox “News” and others of that ilk do. Control the media, control the message, control the Easily Led.
Republican leaders need to work with Murdock and other media outlets to shut him down right now. This is the only chance they are going to get. They can’t count on the Democrats to do it for them. If they let him suck them back in, they will become the Trump party. They will lose in the long game and I’m pretty sure McConnell knows this. Of course, if they do shut him down, he will burn them to the ground. I’m ok with that. No matter which path they take, it’s going to hurt the country. So just nuke him from space and get it over with.
Trump has stable support, $100m in funds and strong incentive to minimize legal troubles. The Party does not really want him, big donors claim to be skeptical. But Trump is politically sharp. It would help the Dems if he ran again, but I would prefer he did something else.
We didn’t watch all of his speech last night, but one comment we did see had me scratching my head. After mentioning that during the 2016 campaign people said if Trump was elected, there would be war within weeks, he said
“and yet I’ve gone decades, decades without a war. The first president to do it for that long a period.”
What the hell was he saying? Surely neither he nor his followers believe he was POTUS for more than four years.
Predicting what is going to happen is kind of a fools game, but what greater fool than I?
If Trump is a nominee on all 50 states, the Democrats will win the WH. We keep talking about the MAGA cult without, at all, acknowledging the cult on the other side - those of us… myself included… who genuinely loathe and detest the man as much as MAGA loves him. So he does drive turn-out - for his haters.
The above assumes that Biden or some other rather anodyne Democrat (Buttigeg is the obvious example) is the nominee. I don’t think it matters who is the VP, anybody concerning themselves about Kamala’s performance is wasting their time: If Bush didn’t replace Quayle (a much bigger political liability) in 1992, Biden isn’t going to replace Harris.
If Trump is not on the ballot, then the general becomes more uncertain. I’ll make that call when this thread has run its course…
I don’t think “hate” is a strong enough word for how McConnell feels about Trump. Other leaders may not be public about it but they know he is a losing loser. If they make a coordinated effort right now, they have a chance. He who hesitates is lost.
“Coordinated” is the key word here. None of them want to be the first to stick their head above the parapet. They’re going to all hunker down for a while, and then one by one, they will visit the Orange Man to pay their fealty and kiss his ring.
Yeah, I know that’s exactly what they are going to do. I was inspired by the New York Post’s “Florida Man Makes An Announcement page 26” shot across the bow that led me to fantasies of what the GOP could do if they had a shred of integrity.
I thought I was fluent in Trump-derp but all I can make of this is perhaps he thinks that because he was President in 2019 and part of 2020 that constitutes two decades. Sort of like saying “see you next year!” to someone on New Year’s Eve.
