Oklahoma was just called for Cruz. Wha???
I notice in TX that Trump is strongest in the border counties. What’s up with that?
That’s the upset of the night. Still doesn’t give Cruz a path to the nomination, but definitely a good win.
Okies are being contrarian today. They may give Sanders a win too.
Oklahoma and Texas might as well be the same state, if it weren’t for college football.
Oklahoma goes to Sanders.
This seems like it’s it. There’s no realistic way of Trump not being the GOP nominee at this point.
RCP average had Clinton and Trump favored, as did Nate Silver, although he had Clinton favored only 51-49 over Sanders. Cruz only had an 11% chance in OK according to Silver, so that’s a pretty unlikely event. The pollsters missed the boat on that one for sure.
Actually, it looks to me like he’s underperforming a little. He was supposed to take every state but Texas. And he’s underperformed in Virginia. He may lose Vermont too before the night is out.
Indeed!
With 39% of the vote in in GA, Rubio’s got 20.5% of the vote.
With 29% of the vote in in VT, Rubio’s got 19.2% of the vote.
With 36% of the vote in in TN, Rubio’s got 19.5% of the vote.
With 35% of the vote in in TX, Rubio’s got 19.1% of the vote.
Only 3% in in AL, so it doesn’t mean much yet, but Rubio’s at 16.3% and Cruz is at 19.6%. Trump’s at 46.1% and they’ve got a 50% WTA threshold.
ETA: He’ll probably make some of those thresholds, but probably not all of them. Should be interesting to see which ones he makes and which ones not.
The idea that Trump could be under performing while winning 4/6 states kind of proves my point. He’s shown his popularity is durable and that he’s winning demographically different states from different regions. We’ve seen Cruz surge and then we saw Rubio surge. Neither of them have come to fruition and neither of those candidates has a realistic path to winning the nomination.
Yeah. He’s got to fall off a cliff, and he’s got to fall off tomorrow. Otherwise, he’s the nominee.
Oh, no doubt, but Trump getting a majority of delegates is still far from a sure thing. The crazy part is that the field as it is might be the best chance of stopping him. Cruz took a couple of states(and may still take Arkansas too), Kasich is battling Trump in Vermont and will do so again later in his home state, and if Rubio can almost win in VA, shouldn’t he also be able to possibly win his home state?
Trump has a clear path to the nomination, but the other guys also have paths to block him.
Oh? Then why did you just tell me that an over 300 result for Trump was super safe prediction?
Anyways, Rubio is just under 20% in Texas so far - that’s the cutoff for getting Ny delegates there.
I mean a majority nationally. Today is where he has some of his best states, and he might not build up enough of a lead.
FL governor Rick Scott is supposedly going to endorse Trump tonight, per Fox News.
Man, this night just keeps getting shittier for Marco, eh?
Looking at what Huffington Post is reporting in terms of total delegates
Donald Trump 182
Marco Rubio 28
Ted Cruz 22
It’s hard to see how Trump isn’t going to be the nominee.
And given the way Clinton’s talking - this is obviously what she expects as well
Was there ever a nominee who got 4//6 states starting off and who did NOT get the nomination?
No, but this isn’t a normal cycle. Has a candidate ever won with the power brokers in the party determined to stop him at all costs?
Well, underperforming compared to what? Expectations? Or being on track to win the nomination?
According to 538, Trump needs to end the night with 297 delegates to stay on track. I bet he clears that with room to spare. Rubio needs 242, Cruz needs 384. (This is all based on the candidates’ appeal to different demographic groups, and their presence or absence in the various states.)
Even with his wins in Texas and Oklahoma, Cruz is going to be way behind. (Really his only chance was to have a commanding lead by March 16, so that he could give up a lot of ground once the voting moved north.)
It won’t matter if Rubio overperforms expectations unless he actually wins somewhere, and even then he’ll likely be way behind in delegates, especially if he misses some cutoffs.
Basically, the night will end with Trump having a bunch of wins and a shit-ton of delegates, Cruz having at least 2 wins and a clear second place in the delegate race but with practically no chance of winning the nomination, and Rubio having scored few delegates and maybe an insignificant win somewhere.
And that’s all that matters. The ‘expectations’ phase of the primary season is over. It’s all about the [del]Benjamins[/del] [del]Pentiums[/del] delegates.
That can’t be right. Cruz is winning Texas which will give him a shitload more than 22.