OK, maybe everyone else knows what’s going on, but I don’t so I’m just going to ask flat out: Ed, why are you being so weird? Is this all just a metagame joke or are we supposed to be getting something out of this apart from confusion?
Some of it is joke. Some of it is Ed being his weird self. I know there was another game where a big todo was made over what counted as a vote restriction versus a post restriction. Mostly, he’s just being silly. Think of it this way, the rest of us are doing classical painting, Ed’s off in Cubism mode. He’s cogitating some plot to catch scum or throw off town and he’s not going to tell us what it is until or even if we lynch him. (This is not to say that I know what he’s doing beyond the fact that it wouldn’t be a mafia game without Ed being all, well, ed-y.
Few thoughts:
Not getting involved in the Pleonast discussion. Been down that road too many times before and it only ends in me getting cranky. (Crankier, I’m already cranky) Pleo appears to have made his preferred method of playing clear and he’s not going to budge on it. I wish he’d keep it for his games that he mods and does whatever he wants with, but at this point, I say let fluid deal with it.
I’m not particularly swayed by Mahaloth’s rebuttals to the votes on him. I think that the people who say his vote for Tom was poor are correct and it would have been better for him to simply admit it rather than continue the ‘i already explained my vote’ defense. (I also think the probable reason for the scumdar comment and vote is that it really looks, to me, like a scum maha is trying to get people not to notice what he is doing by accuse someone else of it.)
I’m going to bed now, I’ll check back in in the morning and will probably leave a vote by then.
Alright, let’s look at some stuff.
First off, here’s the vote count at the end of the day:
glowacks: 5 (Red Skeezix (41), Giraffe (63), Astral Rejection (68), special ed (79), Normal Phase (111))
Tom Scud: 2 (Mahaloth (34), Zeriel (37))
Astral Rejection: 1 (glowacks (55))
Mahaloth: 1 (fubbleskag (77))
pedescribe: 1 (Tom Scud (95))
special ed: 1 (Wolverine (87))
Zeriel: 1 (Pleonast (64))
Not voting: Sir T Cups, Pedescribe
Here’s another way to look at the voting, in chronological order:
[del]1. Special Ed votes Pleonast (33)[/del]
2. Mahaloth votes Tom Scud (34)
3. Zeriel votes Tom Scud (37)
[del]4. Astral Rejection votes Giraffe (39)[/del]
5. Red Skeezix votes glowacks (41)
6. Glowacks votes Astral Rejection (55)
7. Giraffe votes glowacks (63)
8. Pleonast votes Zeriel (64)
9. Astral Rejection votes glowacks (68)
10. Fubbleskag votes Mahaloth (77)
11. Special Ed votes glowacks (79)
12. Wolverine votes Special Ed (87)
13. Tom Scud votes pedescribe (95)
14. Normal Phase votes glowacks (111)
Now, I’m gonna start making some assumptions. I fully admit you have no reason to trust me or my thoughts, so take everything I say here with a grain of salt. I’ve added in the vote post for everybody so we can get a sense of timing.
First off, Tom Scud picks up two very quick votes for his plan. Zeriel’s was okay, but Mahaloth’s struck me as scummy, as I mentioned yesterday. I’ll be examining his posts in a moment.
Glowacks picks up 5 votes throughout the day; I’d expect at least one of those voters to scum. Looking just at the record, nothing jumps out at me. Maybe organizing it chronologically will help someone else. I do think Normal Phase’s last vote is slightly suspicious, because it’s too much, too late. Lots and lots and lots of talk (which is good! I promise!), except all of that talk comes at the very end of the day when nobody can really react to it (that’s not so good). Couple it with an easy vote for the leader, and it’s a tiny bit off. Not enough to justify a vote, just something I want to keep in mind.
Since glowacks was town, I’m going to make the (dangerous) assumption that of our 4 one-off voters, at least 1 is scum, with a second likelier than usual. My reason for this belief: there are a disproportionate number of off votes for Day 1. In my experience, Day 1 is usually a bandwagon on someone unlucky enough to have said something dumb. Glowacks was by no means a bandwagon - at only 5 votes, he’s the smallest Day 1 lynchee by votes I’ve ever seen. Every game is different, and this assumption could be wildly unfounded; it’s a starting point, however. Also, given that glowacks was town, it’s an easy way to stay out of the way and not pick up any heat for his lynch.
I’m considering Tom Scud, Wolverine, Fubbleskag, and Pleonast our one-off voters, by the way. For the record, I realize my assumption (that at least 1 of these players is scum, and maybe 2) is based entirely on a hunch. I’m just looking for a way to narrow down my focus to start this day off, and this is the way I’ve chosen to do it.
My thoughts on Wolverine:
I’m starting with Wolverine cuz he’ll be the easiest to do. With a mere two posts, he’s one of our least-prolific posters in this thread. His first post questions Tom Scud about his plan, correctly identifying that a unique vanilla claim would limit the pool of players for our powers to hide in. Curiously, he finishes by saying “What would town get out of it?” missing the point that scum would have fewer places to hide too.
His second post questions Ed, who is really just raising many of the same concerns he had in his first post. Wolverine is concerned that Tom’s plan will expose our power roles; Ed is too. And yet, this is suspicious to Wolverine. Also, he quotes Ed’s explanation of why my idea is a poor plan, and suggests that it’s scummy to be thinking about how my plan could help scum. I’m not feeling his vote at all, and that’s the last we hear from him. His vote is also quite late in the day, which means he knew this throw-away vote was largely meaningless. Leaning scummy here.
My thoughts on Fubbleskag:
Nothing huge here. The “it seems a bit of a risky move for any scum with a power role, so he’s vanilla scum at worst.” thing still seems kinda weird, but nothing else from his posting habits stand out to me. Also, he’s voting for Mahaloth, and I currently think Mahaloth is a strong lynch candidate, so I’m leaning somewhat town on Fubbles for now.
My thoughts on Tom Scud:
We all know what we think about Tom’s plan. His corrections of my original set of game assumptions has a somewhat town feel for me. Scum are far more likely to let me continue to believe we have a whole bevy of powers and two teams of masons on my side.
Let’s consider his vote:
I have no objections with the content of this vote. I followed the same strategy last game I played, and it netted me GuiriEnEspana. I do, however, find the timing somewhat suspicious; this is the second-to-last vote of the Day. It’ll clearly have no effect on the lynch. Townie trying to prod Pedescribe? Scum throwing away their vote? I don’t have enough to go on to make a decision.
I also don’t like this post:
This is something of a misrepresentation of my vote. I have several reasons for voting for glowacks: his certainty that he’d found scum or masons (originally ignoring that he could have just found vanilla town or another power role), his fishing, his belief that cover roles were impossible since they weren’t mentioned in the rules (I can’t remember cover roles EVER being mentioned in the rules), and his twisting my dislike of Mahaloth’s vote into support of Tom.
Moving on from that, there was the whole weirdness with Ed. Not sure what was going with that. Other than those, nothing is really jumping out at me about him. Tom doesn’t warrant a vote from me yet.
My thoughts about Pleo:
Pleo is historically hard for me to read. This is gonna be the toughest of these to do.
He starts off with a simultaneous vote of Zeriel and Mahaloth, our two Tom Scud voters. After some moderator prodding, he settles on Zeriel. I’m okay with this vote. Even if I feel Zeriel didn’t warrant a vote, I can see where he’s coming from, and he clearly lays out why both are suspicious.
He also corrects my catch of glowack’s “slip” that didn’t really exist. Not something I’d expect a scum player to worry about, since glowacks wouldn’t be one of his teammates.
His next couple of votes-what-don’t-count (Giraffe and Special Ed) all make sense to me, too. Pleo has caught a lot of heat throughout this game, and as I reread his posts I’m not feeling any of it. He’s been exceptionally clear.
I’m not gonna worry about the rest of his day 2 stuff right now, because it’s getting late and I still need to look at Mahaloth. Pleo has done exactly nothing to ping my suspicionometer thus far in game.
My thoughts on Mahaloth:
I don’t like his initial vote, as I’ve explained before. I don’t like how his second post of the game amounts to “I can’t believe I’m the only one voting for Tom!” It makes sense, given that he believes it’s “obviously pro-scum,” but it feels way too much like “c’mon guys, vote for Tom! Rah Rah!” Just a gut feeling here. It’s consistent, but I don’t like it.
I don’t like how he largely ignores my questioning of him, answering only the parts that are convenient. I don’t like, when still questioned, he only says that he’s already explained his vote, and reiterates the part that people aren’t asking about.
That’s his day 1 output. Lastly, I don’t like how he votes early, and doesn’t readjust as the day goes on. It was a weak vote, and he stuck with it. Leaning scum here too.
The Wrap-up!
I swear, I need to write less. Overall, I find Mahaloth and Wolverine scummiest so far. I still have suspicions I need to revisit regarding Giraffe. I’d like to fully consider Day 2 when I’m less sleepy, so I’ll revisit this later. For now, I’m feeling that Wolverine is our best bet, although a Mahaloth lynch would be acceptable as well.
Vote Wolverine.
Didn’t** Wolverine** die during the Night or am I way off?
Uh, not that I want you to move your vote to me. 
♪Skimming is a scum te-ell!♫
You are not off; he did.
unvote
I don’t think a scum is likely to make that mistake (he’d have to be completely out of touch), and I don’t think I’ve ever seen a player do something like that cynically.
Incidentally, in retrospect it’s pretty obvious that Wolverine was curious about my plan because he was one of the players I called out.
Current vote tallies (with voter(s), in chronological order):
Jimmy Chitwood: 2 (Mahaloth, special ed)
Pleonast: 2 (Giraffe, Jimmy Chitwood)
Astral Rejection: 1 (Normal Phase)
Mahaloth: 1 (Tom Scud)
special ed: 1 (Pleonast)
Votes will be final when Day Two ends on Saturday, 4/30 at 11am CST.
Votes cast today, by player (in post number):
- Astral Rejection
- Pleonast - special ed (144)
- Hirka T’Bawa
- Mahaloth - [del]Hirka T’Bawa[/del] (168/169); Jimmy Chitwood (174)
- Normal Phase - Astral Rejection (175)
- special ed - Jimmy Chitwood (187)
- Red Skeezix
- Giraffe - Pleonast (143)
- Jimmy Chitwood - Pleonast (170)
- fubbleskag
- Tom Scud - [del]Mahaloth[/del] (177/194); [del]special ed[/del] (194/198); Mahaloth (198)
- Inner Stickler
Ed is currently voting for me, and not for Jimmy
NETA: see post #195
This is very interesting. 80% of me thinks this is strong evidence that Astral is Town, since obviously the scum players are going to remember who they NK’d last Night. But then 20% of me wonders if this isn’t a deliberate double bluff so that he (or someone else) can make that exact argument… I’m almost hoping for the latter, because that would be badass.
@ Pleonast –
You must have been a lawyer in a past life.
It’s not that you were too comprehensive. It’s that the weight of “she might have done that for scummy motivations” should not logically be equal to that of “her posts look townie”, yet you presented it as if one should cancel out the other. I can’t explain it any more clearly than that, and it seems fruitless to go on about it anymore, but it looks scummy to me, and the deflecting defenses have only made it worse.
However,
@ Jimmy –
I don’t like the reasoning for your vote on Pleonast, at all. It’s not just that it’s mechanical, although it is. It’s that it’s also wrong. Pleo’s multi-votes don’t evade accountability in any meaningful way. If anything, the opposite – more votes open up the possibility of more suspicion from other players, earned or otherwise, and that’s town-friendly in the general sense. It’s just that he is, as Giraffe points out, awfully damn “look how townie this is” about it, and that also rubs me the wrong way. That doesn’t make your vote any better.
I need to go review day one again.
Actually,
vote: Jimmy Chitwood for now.
I’m baffled by ed’s posts and see no reason to change my vote based on them.
I place more weight on what I perceive to be your motivations than your actions.
Thanks for that.
Current vote tallies (with voter(s), in chronological order):
Jimmy Chitwood: 2 (Mahaloth, Normal Phase)
Pleonast: 2 (Giraffe, Jimmy Chitwood)
Mahaloth: 1 (Tom Scud)
special ed: 1 (Pleonast)
Tom Scud: 1 (special ed)
Votes will be final when Day Two ends on Saturday, 4/30 at 11am CST.
Votes cast today, by player (in post number):
- Astral Rejection
- Pleonast - special ed (144)
- Hirka T’Bawa
- Mahaloth - [del]Hirka T’Bawa[/del] (168/169); Jimmy Chitwood (174)
- Normal Phase - [del]Astral Rejection[/del] (175/208); Jimmy Chitwood (215)
- special ed - [del]Jimmy Chitwood (187)[/del]; Tom Scud (195)
- Red Skeezix
- Giraffe - Pleonast (143)
- Jimmy Chitwood - Pleonast (170)
- fubbleskag
- Tom Scud - [del]Mahaloth[/del] (177/194); [del]special ed[/del] (194/198); Mahaloth (198)
- Inner Stickler
Let’s see, I’m voting for ed, who’s voting for Tom, who’s voting for Mahaloth, who’s voting for Jimmy, who’s voting for me. That’s one of the longest voting circles I’ve seen in a while.
I’ll keep this short because of the Wolverine thing.
All of this is fine, though I missed you commenting on Zeriel prior to his summary post of the plusses and minuses of Tom’s plan. It’s when Giraffe comes in that things really come unmoored.
Between you and Pleonast I don’t know what’s going on with being unable to explain myself. I’m not misrepresenting your posts. Your above summary is the general feeling I get from you as regards your feelings about Tom. But within that one post I highlighted, you went from that feeling, to “Tom’s idea was bad” (when discussing Mahaloth’s vote), to “Tom’s idea gave us a 40% chance of nabbing scum, which is awesome!” while arguing against Giraffe. It felt – still feels, despite the Wolverine thing – as if you were tailoring your characterization of Tom’s idea to the arguments you were making at the time. I’m probably wrong, so I’ll drop it.
Well, that was sort of beside the point whether you were voting Giraffe or not at the time, and I did recognize that you weren’t. “easy way for scum to justify suspicion” would have been the better way to put that.
No they’re not. Giraffe’s math suggested a 40% chance on day one – you suggesting we might do it on day two if the conditions were right isn’t the same thing.
OK, this is fine. No scum day talk was the missing link.
So, um… it’s come to my attention that my vote might not be 100% valid.
Unvote Wolverine.
It totally slipped my mind that Wolverine was night killed. That… that changes things.
No vote for Mahaloth right now. I still find him suspicious, but I want to check some stuff and make sure I’m not misremembering anything else.
I told you guys I was tired last night!